About 36 percent of homeowners in England were aged 65 and above, which contrasts sharply with younger age groups, particularly those under 35. Young adults between 25 and 35, made up 15 percent of homeowners and had a dramatically lower homeownership rate. The disparity highlights the growing challenges faced by younger generations in entering the property market, a trend that has significant implications for wealth distribution and social mobility. Barriers to homeownership for young adults The path to homeownership has become increasingly difficult for young adults in the UK. A 2023 survey revealed that mortgage affordability was the greatest obstacle to property purchase. This represents a 39 percent increase from 2021, reflecting the impact of rising house prices and mortgage rates. Despite these challenges, one in three young adults still aspire to get on the property ladder as soon as possible, though many have put their plans on hold. The need for additional financial support from family, friends, and lenders has become more prevalent, with one in five young adults acknowledging this necessity. Regional disparities and housing supply The housing market in England faces regional challenges, with North West England and the West Midlands experiencing the largest mismatch between housing supply and demand in 2023. This imbalance is evident in the discrepancy between new homes added to the housing stock and the number of new households formed. London, despite showing signs of housing shortage, has seen the largest difference between homes built and households formed. The construction of new homes has been volatile, with a significant drop in 2020, a rebound in 2021 and a gradual decline until 2024.

England accounts for the majority of sales in the residential real estate market in the United Kingdom. In September 2024, the total number of housing transactions in the country amounted to nearly 92,000, with approximately 80,000 of these property sales being completed in England. Historically, sales activity has observed notable fluctuations because of the seasonal nature of the market, but also other trends in the market, such as the slump in April 2020 related to the COVID-19 pandemic A declining number of home sales The annual number of home sales in the UK has declined since 2021, with 2023 exhibiting the lowest transaction volume since 2012. The main reason for that trend is the increase in the cost of housing. House prices grew year-on-year between 2012 and 2022, with growth accelerating toward the end of the period due to the record-low mortgage rates. As the cost of living crisis hit in 2022, the Bank of England hiked interest rates, resulting in dramatically higher home finance costs. With house prices at their peak and a double increase in borrowing costs, many prospective homebuyers could not afford to buy and placed their plans on hold. How will prices develop in the next five years? After a slight decline in 2024, house prices in the UK are expected to pick up in the next year and continue on an upward trend until 2028. On average, house prices are projected to grow by 2.7 percent per year.

The housing market in England cooled in 2022 and 2023, after a record year in 2021. In 2023, the number of housing transactions reached approximately 858,000, which was the lowest figure since 2012 when the market was still recovering from the global financial crisis. Some of the main factors that have led to the decline in home buying are the cost of living crisis, higher mortgage rates, low inventory, and the rapid increase in house prices across the UK.

This statistic illustrates the number of permanent dwelling construction projects commencing in England, in each financial year from 1946 to 2021. From 2009 to 2019, the number of permanent dwelling constructions rose from 106,720 to 177,880. Home completions fell both during the 2007 economic crisis and during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the first quarter of 2023, there were over 8,000 construction starts by housing associations in England. Public housing starts in England returned to its pre-pandemic values in 2021 after the initial shock effects of COVID-19 on construction in the UK region. By the second quarter of 2020, housing starts initiated by housing associations had fallen to nearly 4,000. Outside of the periods after the 2008 crisis and early 2020, the number of housing starts in the UK region remained relatively consistent.

The Private Rented Sector has grown considerably over the last 25 years and is now a crucial part of the UK's housing mix. The sector provides easily accessible accommodation for young, mobile, transient populations, but is increasingly being used to provide long term accommodation for vulnerable groups who in earlier times might have been able to access local authority or housing association accommodation. An online survey was selected as the principal data collection tool for the research. The resulting raw data has been attached as an SPSS Statistics Data Document.

In August 2024, the housing market in the UK saw a 20 percent increase in demand and 23 percent increase in the number of agreed sales. New inventory has also increased, with the stock of new homes for sale up by 14 percent and new supply, 12 percent. In 2023, house prices slightly declined, as the market cooled under the impact of soaring interest rates and worsened homebuyer sentiment.

Trend-based projections

Four variants of trend-based population projections and corresponding household projections are currently available to download. These are labelled as High, Central and Low and differ in their domestic migration assumptions beyond 2017. The economic crisis has been linked to a fall in migration from London to the rest of the UK and a rise in flows from the UK to London. The variants reflect a range of scenarios relating to possible return to pre-crisis trends in migration.

High: In this scenario, the changes to domestic migration flows are considered to be structural and recent patterns persist regardless of an improving economic outlook.

Low: Changes to domestic migration patterns are assumed to be transient and return to pre-crisis trends beyond 2018. Domestic outflow propensities increase by 10% and inflows decrease by 6% as compared to the High variant.

Central: Assumes recent migration patterns are partially transient and partially structural. Beyond 2018, domestic outlow propensities increase by 5% and inflows by 3% as compared to the High variant.

Central - incorporating 2012-based fertility assumptions: Uses the same migration assumptions as the Central projeciton above, but includes updated age-specific-fertility-rates based on 2011 birth data and future fertility trends taken from ONS's 2012-based National Population Projections. The impact of these changes is to increase fertility by ~10% in the long term.

GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central
Borough: Central - incorporating 2012-based NPP fertility assumptions
Ward: Central

GLA 2013 round trend-based household projections:
Borough: High
Borough: Low
Borough: Central

GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections:
Borough: Central

Updates:
Update 03-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Methodology
Update 04-2014: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections - Results
Data to accompany Update 04-2014
Update 12-2014: GLA 2013 round ethnic group population projections
Data to accompany Update 12-2014

Housing linked projections

Two variants of housing-linked projections are available based on housing trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA). The two variants are produced using different models to constrain the population to available dwellings. These are referred to as the DCLG-based model and the Capped Household Size model. These models will be explained in greater detail in an upcoming Intelligence Unit Update.

Projection Models:

DCLG-Based Model

This model makes use of Household Representative Rates (HRR) from DCLG’s 2011-based household projections to convert populations by age and gender into households. The models uses iteration to find a population that yields a total number of households that matches the number of available household spaces implied by the development data. This iterative process involves modulating gross migration flows between each London local authority and UK regions outside of London. HRRs beyond 2021 have been extrapolated forward by the GLA. The model also produces a set of household projections consistent with the population outputs.

Capped Household Size Model

This model was introduced to provide an alternative projection based on the SHLAA housing trajectories. While the projections given by the DCLG-Based Model appear realistic for the majority of London, there are concerns that it could lead to under projection for certain local authorities, namely those in Outer London where recent population growth has primarily been driven by rising household sizes. For these boroughs, the Capped Household Size model provides greater freedom for the population to follow the growth patterns shown in the Trend-based projections, but caps average household size at 2012 levels. For boroughs where the DCLG-based SHLAA model gave higher results than the Trend-based model, the projections follow the results of the former.

Household projections are not available from this model.

Development assumptions:

SHLAA housing data

These projections incorporate development data from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) database to determine populations for 2012 onwards. Development trajectories are derived from this data for four phases: 2015-20, 2021-25, 2026-30, and 2031-36. For 2012-14, data is taken from the 2009 SHLAA trajectories. No data is included in the database for beyond 2036 and the 2031-36 trajectories are extended forward to 2041. This data was correct as at February 2014 and may be updated in future. Assumed development figures will not necessarily match information in the SHLAA report as some data on estate renewals is not included in the database at this time.

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based
Borough: capped SHLAA-based
Ward: SHLAA-based
Ward: capped SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based household projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

GLA 2013 round SHLAA-based ethnic group population projections:
Borough: SHLAA-based

Zero-development projections

The GLA produces so-called zero-development projections for London that assume that future dwelling stocks remain unchanged. These projections can be used in conjunction with the SHLAA-based projections to give an indication of the modelled impact of the assumed development. Variants are produced consistent with the DCLG-based and Capped Household Size projections. Due to the way the models operate, the former assumes no development beyond 2011 and the latter no development after 2012.

GLA 2013 round zero development population projections:
Borough: DCLG zero development
Borough: capped zero development
Ward: DCLG zero development
Ward: capped zero development

Frequently asked question: which projection should I use?

The GLA Demography Team recommends using the Capped Household Size SHLAA projection for most purposes. The main exception to this is for work estimating future housing need, where it is more appropriate to use the trend-based projections.

The custom-age population tool is here.

To access the GLA's full range of demographic projections please click here.

The volume of residential property sales in London dropped substantially after 2007 as a result of the global financial crisis. Though housing transactions gradually increased until 2014, sales volumes remained shy from the period before the financial crisis. The housing boom in 2021 led to transactions jumping to nearly 108,000, up from 75,000 the year before. That substantial increase was followed by two years of the market contracting.

The UK inflation rate was three percent in January 2025, up from 2.5 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since March 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23. Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.

In 2023, Germany had the largest housing stock among European countries with a total of 43.6 million housing units. Other countries heading the ranking were France, Spain, and the United Kingdom (UK). This was not surprising, considering that the top four countries have some of the largest population in Europe. In terms of the number of housing units per 1,000 citizens, however, the top three countries were Bulgaria, Spain and France. Which European countries build the most housing? Supply of new housing varies greatly in different countries. In 2023, Ireland and Poland delivered the highest number of housing completions, but when it comes to construction starts, Ireland topped the ranking, leaving Serbia and Austria in second and third place, respectively. How did house prices change in 2023? Demand for housing remained strong in 2023, causing house prices to grow in almost all European countries. The United Kingdom was one of the few countries where home prices declined - a result of the soaring interest rates and cost of living crisis. Hungary was at the other side of the spectrum, with house prices surging by more than 13 percent.

Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2023. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 117.5 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

Repossessions occur when a borrower fails to repay their loan on time and the lender takes possession of the property. To avoid a spike in repossessions during the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) introduced a mortgage payment holiday with the option of borrowers to access payment deferrals. In the period between the second quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, the number of repossessions of mortgages to private individuals in England and Wales dropped to nearly zero. In comparison, in 2011, repossessions in Midlands alone measured over 1,700.

In January 2025, the UK inflation rate for goods was one percent and five percent for services. Prices for goods accelerated significantly, sharply between in 2021 and 2022 before falling in 2023. By comparison, prices for services initially grew at a more moderate rate, but have also not fallen as quickly. The overall CPI inflation rate for the UK reached a recent high of 11.1 percent in October 2022 and remained in double-figures until April 2023, when it fell to 8.7 percent. As of December 2024, the UK's inflation rate was 2.5 percent, down from 2.6 percent in the previous month. Sectors driving high inflation In late 2024, communication was the sector with the highest inflation rate, with prices increasing by 6.1 percent as of December 2024. During the recent period of high inflation that eased in 2023, food and energy prices were particular high, with housing and energy inflation far higher than in any other sector, peaking at 26.6 percent towards the end of 2022. High food and energy prices since 2021 have been one of the main causes of the cost of living crisis in the UK, especially for low-income households that spend a higher share of their income on these categories. This is likely one of the factors driving increasing food bank usage in the UK, which saw approximately 3.12 million people use a food bank in 2023/24, compared with 1.9 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The global inflation crisis The UK has not been alone in suffering rapid price increases since 2021. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of economic and geopolitical shocks had a dramatic impact on the global economy. A global supply chain crisis failed to meet rising demand in 2021, leading to the beginning of an Inflation Crisis, which was only exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war directly influenced the prices of food and energy, as both countries were major exporters of important crops. European imports of hydrocarbons from Russia were also steadily reduced throughout 2022 and 2023, resulting in higher energy prices throughout the year.

In 2021, there were 15,200 residential adult social care homes in England, these establishments provide care and support for older and disabled people. That year, there were 11,900 non-residential adult care homes in England. Over the provided time interval the number of residential care homes decreased, while the number of non-residential care homes has increased since 2009.

As a result of the Coronavirus (COVID-19), there were over 15 thousand deaths in care homes in England and Wales between April 10 and April 24, 2020.

With the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, economies across the globe began to enter into deep recessions. What had started out as a crisis centered on the United States quickly became global in nature, as it became apparent that not only had the economies of other advanced countries (grouped together as the G7) become intimately tied to the U.S. financial system, but that many of them had experienced housing and asset price bubbles similar to that in the U.S.. The United Kingdom had experienced a huge inflation of housing prices since the 1990s, while Eurozone members (such as Germany, France and Italy) had financial sectors which had become involved in reckless lending to economies on the periphery of the EU, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Other countries, such as Japan, were hit heavily due their export-led growth models which suffered from the decline in international trade. Unemployment during the Great Recession As business and consumer confidence crashed, credit markets froze, and international trade contracted, the unemployment rate in the most advanced economies shot up. While four to five percent is generally considered to be a healthy unemployment rate, nearing full employment in the economy (when any remaining unemployment is not related to a lack of consumer demand), many of these countries experienced rates at least double that, with unemployment in the United States peaking at almost 10 percent in 2010. In large countries, unemployment rates of this level meant millions or tens of millions of people being out of work, which led to political pressures to stimulate economies and create jobs. By 2012, many of these countries were seeing declining unemployment rates, however, in France and Italy rates of joblessness continued to increase as the Euro crisis took hold. These countries suffered from having a monetary policy which was too tight for their economies (due to the ECB controlling interest rates) and fiscal policy which was constrained by EU debt rules. Left with the option of deregulating their labor markets and pursuing austerity policies, their unemployment rates remained over 10 percent well into the 2010s. Differences in labor markets The differences in unemployment rates at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010) reflect not only the differences in how economies were affected by the downturn, but also the differing labor market institutions and programs in the various countries. Countries with more 'liberalized' labor markets, such as the United States and United Kingdom experienced sharp jumps in their unemployment rate due to the ease at which employers can lay off workers in these countries. When the crisis subsided in these countries, however, their unemployment rates quickly began to drop below those of the other countries, due to their more dynamic labor markets which make it easier to hire workers when the economy is doing well. On the other hand, countries with more 'coordinated' labor market institutions, such as Germany and Japan, experiences lower rates of unemployment during the crisis, as programs such as short-time work, job sharing, and wage restraint agreements were used to keep workers in their jobs. While these countries are less likely to experience spikes in unemployment during crises, the highly regulated nature of their labor markets mean that they are slower to add jobs during periods of economic prosperity.

The borough with the highest property prices in London, Kensington and Chelsea, had an average price for a flat that was about 600,000 British pounds higher than the London average. London is the most populous metropolitan area in the UK, and living in it comes with a price tag. Unsurprisingly, the most expensive boroughs in terms of real estate prices are located in the heart of the metropolis: Kensington and Chelsea, the City of Westminster, and the City of London. In Kensington and Chelsea, home to several museums such as the Natural History Museum, the Victoria and Albert Museum, and the Science Museum, as well as galleries and theaters, the average price of apartments was over million British pounds. How have residential property prices developed in recent years? The average house price in England declined slightly in 2023 after increasing year-on-year since 2008. The housing market in Wales also experienced a mild correction, but prices in Scotland and Northern Ireland continued to grow. Since 2015, the base year of the UK House Price Index, house prices in London have risen by over 30 percent. In London, the cost of a flat decreased by 0.3 percent year-on-year as of June 2024. However, some of the most expensive boroughs recorded a decline of over 10 percent. Are residential property prices in London expected to grow in the future? Despite property prices declining in 2023, the market is forecast to continue to grow in the next five years, according to a March 2023 forecast. Some of the reasons for this are the robust demand for housing, the chronic shortage of residential properties and the anticipated decline in mortgage interest rates.