The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost ************* after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to ***********. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q2 2025 about sales, median, housing, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States (USSTHPI) from Q1 1975 to Q3 2025 about appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2024. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 116.2 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

Considering the notable influence of traditional Confucian culture on China’s housing market, this study introduces an innovative index to quantify the magnitude of the real estate bubble within China, employing a familial generational iterative model. Utilizing rent-buy policy as a conceptual framework, our research constructs a difference-in-differences model to investigate the impact of macroeconomic policies on the housing bubble phenomenon. Empirical observations from 2022 reveal pronounced bubble dynamics in first and second-tier cities, while housing prices in third and fourth-tier cities, alongside select fifth-tier cities, exhibit a declining trend. On a national scale, apart from minor affordability observed during 2005–2007, no significant affordability was identified in other years, with the housing price bubble index demonstrating a downward trajectory from 2020 to 2022. Furthermore, the implementation of the rent-buy policy that equality the rights of renter and owner has directly influenced the housing market, notably mitigating the overall escalation of housing prices. Additional analysis indicates that the rent-and-buy policy has been more successful in curbing price hikes in newly constructed and smaller-sized housing units compared to second-hand and larger-scale properties.

The average price of Australian residential property has risen over the past ten years, and in June 2025, it reached over one million Australian dollars. Nonetheless, property experts in Australia have indicated that the country has been in a property bubble over the past decade, with some believing the market will collapse sometime in the near future. Property prices started declining in 2022; however, a gradual upward trend was witnessed throughout 2023, with minor fluctuations in 2024. Australian capital city price differences While the national average residential property price has exhibited growth, individual capital cities display diverse trends, highlighting the complexity of Australia’s property market. Sydney maintains its position as the most expensive residential property market across Australia's capital cities, with a median property value of approximately 1.19 million Australian dollars as of April 2025. Brisbane has emerged as an increasingly pricey capital city for residential property, surpassing both Canberra and Melbourne in median housing values. Notably, Perth experienced the most significant annual increase in its average residential property value, with a 10 percent increase from April 2024, despite being a comparably more affordable market. Hobart and Darwin remain the most affordable capital cities for residential properties in the country. Is the homeownership dream out of reach? The rise in property values coincides with the expansion of Australia's housing stock. In the June quarter of 2025, the number of residential dwellings reached around 11.37 million, representing an increase of about 53,600 dwellings from the previous quarter. However, this growth in housing supply does not necessarily translate to increased affordability or accessibility for many Australians. The country’s house prices remain largely disproportional to income, leaving the majority of low- and middle-income earners priced out of the market. Alongside this, elevated mortgage interest rates in recent years have made taking out a loan increasingly unappealing for many potential property owners, and the share of mortgage holders at risk of mortgage repayment stress has continued to climb.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

Mortgage interest rates in Spain soared in 2022, after falling below *** percent at the end of 2021. In the first quarter of 2025, the average weighted interest rate stood at **** percent. That was lower than the rate in the same period the previous year. Despite the increase, Spain had a considerably lower mortgage interest rate than many other European countries. The aftermath of the property bubble Before the bursting of the real estate bubble, the housing market experienced a period of intense activity. A context marked by economic growth, high employment rate, low interest rates, skyrocketing house prices and land speculation, among others, encourage massive lending for the acquisition of property; in 2005 alone, more than *** million home mortgages were granted in Spain. When the bubble burst and the financial crisis hit the country, residential real estate transactions plummeted and households’ non-performing loans jumped to nearly ** billion euros as countless families were not able to cope with their debts. Over a decade after the onset of the crisis, and despite falling mortgage rates, the volume of mortgage loans keeps decreasing every year. A homeowner country Traditionally, Spain has been a country of homeowners; in 2021, the homeownership rate was roughly ** percent. While nearly half of Spanish households own their property with no outstanding payment, the percentage of households that have loan or mortgage pending has been decreasing in recent years. Despite ownership remaining as the preferred tenure option, cultural changes, job insecurity and mounting house prices are prompting Spaniards to opt more and more to become tenants instead of owners, as shown in the changing dynamics of the Spanish residential rental market.

After a period of rapid increase, house price growth in the UK has moderated. In 2025, house prices are forecast to increase by ****percent. Between 2025 and 2029, the average house price growth is projected at *** percent. According to the source, home building is expected to increase slightly in this period, fueling home buying. On the other hand, higher borrowing costs despite recent easing of mortgage rates and affordability challenges may continue to suppress transaction activity. Historical house price growth in the UK House prices rose steadily between 2015 and 2020, despite minor fluctuations. In the following two years, prices soared, leading to the house price index jumping by about 20 percent. As the market stood in April 2025, the average price for a home stood at approximately ******* British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next five years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2025 and slow slightly until 2029. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Outer London slightly outperforming Central London.

The average Canadian house price declined slightly in 2023, after four years of consecutive growth. The average house price stood at ******* Canadian dollars in 2023 and was forecast to reach ******* Canadian dollars by 2026. Home sales on the rise The number of housing units sold is also set to increase over the two-year period. From ******* units sold, the annual number of home sales in the country is expected to rise to ******* in 2025. British Columbia and Ontario have traditionally been housing markets with prices above the Canadian average, and both are set to witness an increase in sales in 2025. How did Canadians feel about the future development of house prices? When it comes to consumer confidence in the performance of the real estate market in the next six months, Canadian consumers in 2024 mostly expected that the market would go up. A slightly lower share of the respondents believed real estate prices would remain the same.

Located in the Region of Valencia, the province of Castellon had the lowest property prices of all Spanish coastal areas, with an average price of 1,000 euros per square meter as of the first quarter of 2022. Castellon was also the Valencian province with the lowest average price of urban land. Also on the Mediterranean coast of Spain, Almeria ranked second on the list, with an average price per square meter of 1,100 euros, followed by another Valencian province, Valencia, which featured an average property price of just over 1,200 euros.

The other side of the coin: the most expensive coastal areas

Out of the four main islands that comprise the Balearic province, two are listed as the most expensive coastal areas of Spain. Ibiza and Formentera’s coasts ranked as the least affordable coasts in terms of property prices, with their average price per square meter amounting to nearly 4,000 euros. The Basque province of Gipuzkoa was the second most expensive coastal area.

Spain: the rebirth of a broken property market

After a long period of time in which Spain’s real estate prices increased sharply, the market was hit by the global financial crisis of 2007, making the Spanish property bubble collapse and damaging home value. It can be seen that real estate prices in Spain initiated a solid recovery in 2015, after the house price index fell to 96.27 index points in 2013. The property market has made great progress, but it is still far off the rest of its European counterparts, and it is positioned, in fact, at the bottom of the European list of the EMF’s house price index.

The average price of Australian residential property has risen over the past ten years, and in December 2024, it reached 976,800 Australian dollars. Nonetheless, property experts in Australia have indicated that the country has been in a property bubble over the past decade, with some believing the market will collapse sometime in the near future. Property prices started declining in 2022; however, a gradual upward trend was witnessed throughout 2023, with minor fluctuations in 2024. Australian capital city price differences While the national average residential property price has exhibited growth, individual capital cities display diverse trends, highlighting the complexity of Australia’s property market. Sydney maintains its position as the most expensive residential property market across Australia's capital cities, with a median property value of approximately 1.19 million Australian dollars as of April 2025. Brisbane has emerged as an increasingly pricey capital city for residential property, surpassing both Canberra and Melbourne in median housing values. Notably, Perth experienced the most significant annual increase in its average residential property value, with a 10 percent increase from April 2024, despite being a comparably more affordable market. Hobart and Darwin remain the most affordable capital cities for residential properties in the country. Is the homeownership dream out of reach? The rise in property values coincides with the expansion of Australia's housing stock. In the December quarter of 2024, the number of residential dwellings reached around 11.29 million, representing an increase of about 53,200 dwellings from the previous quarter. However, this growth in housing supply does not necessarily translate to increased affordability or accessibility for many Australians. The country’s house prices remain largely disproportional to income, leaving the majority of low- and middle-income earners priced out of the market. Alongside this, elevated mortgage interest rates in recent years have made taking out a loan increasingly unappealing for many potential property owners, and the share of mortgage holders at risk of mortgage repayment stress has continued to climb.

On the 2025 Fortune China 500 ranking for real estate companies, China’s leading real estate developer Poly Real Estate ranked first with a total revenue of ************ U.S. dollars, followed by China Vanke and Country Garden. Real estate market in ChinaIn the last 20 years, China’s real estate market has experienced its most prosperous development. Land purchase has also become an important source of financial revenue for many local governments. The housing price increased so rapidly, especially in larger cities, that the government had to take measures to restrict investment. With the slowdown of China’s economic development and gradually saturated market, people are also afraid of the burst of the real estate bubble. While the real estate price in smaller cities tended to stay stable or even decrease, there is still growing potential for real estate prices in larger cities, especially the first-tier cities. China’s consumers are increasingly interested in the high-quality real estate products built by leading real estate developers. Leading real estate developers in ChinaCompared to the ranking in 2021, there were ***** new members entering the leading ten real estate developer club in 2022. The larger developers became stronger as they had advantages in land acquisitions, financing, marketing and pricing power which is difficult for smaller developers to catch up with. Thus, consolidation is also very common among China’s real estate developers. In 2022, *** real estate giants disappeared from the Fortune 500 ranking list, Evergrande and Sunac. Affected by the changing real estate market, they were facing cash flow problems and were affected heavily by the debt crisis.

Australia’s real house price index increased to ***** in the first quarter of 2025. House prices fluctuated over the reported period compared to the base year of 2015, experiencing a sharp increase throughout 2021, with the country’s house price index peaking in the first quarter of 2022 at *****. Prospective homeowners priced out of the market Recent house price increases reflect the ongoing challenges of housing affordability in Australia. Property prices largely outpace income growth, reigniting discussions about whether the country is stuck in a property bubble, a topic that has been debated for over a decade. The country’s house price-to-income ratio hit ***** in the second quarter of 2024, the highest ratio recorded over the past five years, making it increasingly difficult to get on the property ladder. Unaffordable rental conditions Australia’s rental market has also seen challenges, with the rent price index continuing to climb throughout 2024 into the first quarter of 2025, making the prospect of renting less appealing. As of March 2025, the average weekly house rent price in Sydney stood at *** Australian dollars, the highest across the country’s major cities. Canberra, Darwin, and Perth were the next most expensive markets for house rents, while Hobart was the most affordable capital city for both house and unit rent prices.

New Zealand has one of the highest house price-to-income ratios in the world; nonetheless, since the first quarter of 2022, the country's house price-to-income ratio started to trend downward. In the first quarter of 2025, the ratio was *****, a decrease from the same quarter of the previous year. This ratio was calculated by dividing nominal house prices by nominal disposable income per head, and is considered a measure of affordability. Homeownership dream New Zealand has been in what is widely considered a housing bubble. The disproportionately large increases in residential house prices have placed the dream of owning their own home out of reach for many in the country. In 2025, around ** percent of residential properties were sold for over a million New Zealand dollars. The majority of mortgage lending in the country went to owner-occupiers where the property was not their first home, with first-home buyers often struggling to secure a loan. In general, only New Zealand residents and citizens can buy homes in the country to live in, with new regulations tightening investment activity in that market. Rent affordability Due to New Zealand's high property prices, many individuals and families are stuck renting for prolonged periods. However, with rent prices increasing across the country and the share of monthly income spent on rent trending upwards in tandem with a highly competitive rental market, renting is becoming a less appealing prospect for many. The Auckland and Bay of Plenty regions had the highest weekly rent prices across the country as of December 2024, with the Southland region recording the lowest rent prices per week.

In 2022, the price for new residential property in Shanghai's inner ring dropped by more than ***** yuan per square meter, to ******* yuan per square meter. Although the local authorities introduced policies to stabilize the market, the real estate market in Shanghai’s central districts remained under downward pressure, similar to those experienced by other major cities in China. The most competitive real estate market in the country Home prices in Shanghai are among the most expensive globally. The area within the city's inner ring road is certainly one of the most competitive real estate markets in all of China, with property prices nearly *********** higher than those outside the outer ring road. Rising prices are far beyond the reach of ordinary residents, and the few who can afford to buy often have to take out substantial mortgages for their homes, resulting in a high proportion of real estate in their personal assets. Challenges facing China’s real estate sector The high level of indebtedness of the Chinese people and the bubbles in the country's real estate sector have become one of the major risks to China's economy. While developers expanded through continuous borrowing and the sale of off-plan properties to homebuyers, the market saw a significant excess of housing supply in most regions. There have also been instances in recent years where developers have had difficulties in completing construction projects or in repaying their loans or bonds. Addressing the risks in China's real estate sector, particularly in companies such as the Evergrande Group and Country Garden, has become an urgent task to ensure China's economic stability and prosperity.

After a long period of steady increase in real estate prices in Spain, the market was hit by the global financial crisis of 2007, resulting in the burst of the Spanish property bubble. House prices have since picked up and in 2023, the average square meter price reached 2,809 euros - just slightly below 2008 levels. Though prices have risen across the whole country, some regions, such as the Balearic Islands, Catalonia, Madrid, and Andalusia, experienced faster growth than others. Additionally, the gap between newly built and existing home prices has widened. Spain’s real estate market behind others The property market has made great progress, but it is still far off the rest of its European counterparts, and it is positioned, in fact, at the bottom of the European list of the EMF’s house price index, which is led by Czechia and Portugal. Supply is a major factor influencing the price development. Many European countries suffer housing shortages due to sluggish construction activity, and Spain is no exception. In 2022, ranked among the countries with the lowest number of residential construction starts per 1,000 citizens in Europe. Buying vs renting As happens with many other countries, the affordability of buying a home and renting will differ considerably dependent on the area. In 2022, the average Spanish citizen needed between five and 18 years to purchase an average priced property in their region with their full salary, with Murcia and La Rioja being the most affordable regions. The house price to rent index shows that house price growth has been much faster than rental growth. That is good news for homeowners whose homes appreciate over time, but an issue for renters who are yet to purchase a property.

Der MoneyPark Real Estate Risk Index (RERI) für die Schweiz stand im 3. Quartal 2022 auf einer Skala von 0 (kein Risiko) bis * (akute Blasengefahr) bei *** Punkten und ist damit gegenüber dem Vorquartal gleich geblieben. Damit lag er in der mittleren Risikozone. Seit Beginn seiner Ermittlung im 1. Quartal 2014 hatte der Index im 2. Quartal 2020 mit *** Punkten seinen höchsten Stand. Die letzten verfügbaren Daten stammen aus dem 3. Quartal 2022.

Was ist der Real Estate Risk Index (RERI)?

Der Real Estate Risk Index setzt sich aus insgesamt sechs Subindizes zusammen, die sowohl makroökonomische Faktoren wie Arbeitslosenquoten oder den Einkaufsmanager-Index berücksichtigen, aber auch spezifische Daten zur Kreditvergabe und zum Zinsmarkt miteinbeziehen. Der Index rangiert zwischen 1 und 6, wobei mit steigender Indexzahl auch das Risiko auf dem Markt zunimmt. Dabei kann sich das Risiko sowohl auf einen drohenden Preiszerfall, z.B. durch einen Nachfragerückgang, als auch auf eine Überhitzung des Marktes, z.B. durch eine starke Entkoppelung der Immobilienpreise vom allgemeinen Preisniveau, beziehen. Der Index bezieht sich auf selbst genutztes Wohneigentum, also Eigentumswohnungen und Einfamilienhäuser.

Der Index als Kennzahl für Immobilien-Investments

Der Real Estate Risk Index kann zur Risikoabschätzung für Investments am Eigenheimmarkt genutzt werden. Daneben gibt es den UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index, der ebenfalls bei der Investition in Wohneigentum als Kennzahl herangezogen werden kann. Weitere Informationen zu Immobilien-Investments in der Schweiz finden sich im gleichnamigen Report und der dazugehörigen Themenseite.