Global house prices experienced a significant shift in 2022, with advanced economies seeing a notable decline after a prolonged period of growth. The real house price index (adjusted for inflation) for advanced economies peaked at nearly 140 index points in early 2022 before falling to around 132 points by the first quarter of 2024. This represents a reversal of the upward trend that had characterized the housing market for roughly a decade. Conversely, real house prices in emerging economies resumed growing, after a brief correction in the second half of 2022. What is behind the slowdown? Inflation and slow economic growth have been the primary drivers for the cooling of the housing market. Secondly, the growing gap between incomes and house prices since 2012 has decreased the affordability of homeownership. Last but not least, homebuyers in 2024 faced dramatically higher mortgage interest rates, further contributing to worsening sentiment and declining transactions. Some markets continue to grow While many countries witnessed a deceleration in house price growth in 2022, some markets continued to see substantial increases. Turkey, in particular, stood out with a nominal increase in house prices of over 55 percent in the 1st quarter of 2024. Other countries that recorded a two-digit growth include Russia and the United Arab Emirates. When accounting for inflation, the three countries with the fastest growing residential prices in early 2024 were the United Arab Emirates, Poland, and Bulgaria.

The U.S. mortgage market has declined notably since 2020 and 2021, mostly due to the effect of higher borrowing costs on refinance mortgages. The value of refinancing mortgage originations, amounted to 86 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2024, down from a peak of 851 billion U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of mortgage loans for the purchase of a property recorded milder fluctuations, with a value of 291 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2024, and a market peak of 477 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2022. According to the forecast, mortgage lending is expected to slightly increase until the end of 2025. The cost of mortgage borrowing in the U.S. Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2022 and continued to increase in 2023. In 2020, a homebuyer could lock in a 30-year fixed interest rate of under three percent, whereas in 2023, the average rate for the same mortgage type exceeded seven percent. That has led to a decline in homebuyer sentiment, and an increasing share of the population pessimistic about buying a home in the current market. The effect of a slower housing market on property prices and rents According to the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, housing prices experienced a slight correction in early 2023, as property transactions declined. Nevertheless, the index continued to grow in the following months. On the other hand, residential rents have increased steadily since 2000.

The average resale house price in Canada was forecast to reach nearly 836,000 Canadian dollars in 2026, according to a January forecast. In 2024, house prices increased after falling for the first time since 2019. One of the reasons for the price correction was the notable drop in transaction activity. Housing transactions picked up in 2024 and are expected to continue to grow until 2026. British Columbia, which is the most expensive province for housing, is projected to see the average house price reach 1.2 million Canadian dollars in 2026. Affordability in Vancouver Vancouver is the most populous city in British Columbia and is also infamously expensive for housing. In 2023, the city topped the ranking for least affordable housing market in Canada, with the average homeownership cost outweighing the average household income. There are a multitude of reasons for this, but most residents believe that foreigners investing in the market cause the high housing prices. Victoria housing market The capital of British Columbia is Victoria, where housing prices are also very high. The price of a single family home in Victoria's most expensive suburb, Oak Bay was 1.9 million Canadian dollars in 2024.

The median house price of residential real estate in California has increased notably since 2012. After a brief correction in property prices in 2022, the median price reached 756,200 U.S. dollars in December 2023.

The Commercial Real Estate (CRE) industry is exhibiting significant variations across markets, with persistently high office vacancy rates juxtaposed against thriving prime office spaces. Hard hit by the widespread adoption of remote and hybrid work models, the overall office vacancy rate rose to 20.4% in Q4 2024 from the pre-pandemic rate of 16.8%. However, leasing volumes for prime office spaces are set to climb, providing opportunities for seasoned investors. On the other hand, the multifamily sector is gaining from a prominent move towards renting, primarily driven by housing affordability concerns and changing lifestyle preferences. This has increased demand for multifamily properties and opportunities to convert underutilized properties, such as offices, into residential rentals. The industrial real estate segment is also evolving, with the boom in e-commerce necessitating the development of strategically located warehouses for quick fulfillment and last-mile delivery. Industry revenue has gained at a CAGR of 0.8% to reach $1.4 trillion through the end of 2025, including a 0.4% climb in 2025 alone. The industry is grappling with multiple challenges, including high interest rates, wide buyer-seller expectation gaps and significant disparities in demand across different geographies and asset types. The Federal Reserve's persistent high-interest-rate environment creates refinancing hurdles for properties purchased during the low-rate period of 2020-2021. Because of remote working trends, office delinquency rates are predicted to climb from 11.0% in late 2024 to 14.0% by 2026, leading to a job market increasingly concentrated in certain urban centers. Through the end of 2030, the CRE industry is expected to stabilize as the construction pipeline shrinks, reducing new supply and, in turn, rebalancing supply and demand dynamics. With this adjustment, occupancy rates are likely to improve, and rents may observe gradual growth. The data center segment is set to witness accelerating demand propelled by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, cloud computing and the Internet of Things. Likewise, mixed-use properties are poised to gain popularity, driven by the growing appeal of flexible spaces that accommodate diverse businesses and residents. This new demand, coupled with the retiring baby boomer generation's preference for leisure-centric locales, is expected to push the transformation of traditional shopping plazas towards destination centers, offering continued opportunities for savvy CRE investors. Industry revenue will expand at a CAGR of 1.9% to reach $1.6 trillion in 2030.

The nominal price of residential properties in Germany in the fourth quarter of 2022 declined for the first time in 12 years. After peaking at nearly 13 percent in 2021, the annual house price growth turned negative, and in the third quarter of 2023, house prices fell by over 10 percent. Adjusted for inflation, the decrease was even stronger, at 15 percent. In the following months, the decline continued, but at a slower rate. This trend could be observed across the major German cities.

I revisit Ngai and Tenreyro (2014)'s empirical analysis of seasonal match quality in American Housing Survey (AHS) data. Using 1999 data only, Ngai and Tenreyro show that homes purchased in the summer season are occupied longer and have fewer and less costly renovations soon after purchase, pointing to superior match quality for households who move house during the thicker summer market. However, applying the same methods to other years of the AHS substantially weakens these results. In addition, I document heaping in a key variable, the prior move month, and implement a multiple imputation correction. Ngai and Tenreyro's use of a coarsened measure of duration seems to largely overcome the biases that heaping introduces.

Companies operating in the third-party real estate industry have had to navigate numerous economic headwinds in recent years, ranging from rising interest rates, spiralling inflation and muted economic growth. Revenue is projected to sink at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2024, including an estimated slump of 2.1% in 2024 to €196.2 billion, while the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 34.6%. Amid spiralling inflation, central banks across Europe ratcheted up interest rates, resulting in borrowing costs skyrocketing in the two years through 2023. In residential markets, elevated mortgage rates combined with tightening credit conditions eventually ate into demand, inciting a drop in house prices. Rental markets performed well when house prices were elevated, being the cheaper alternative for cash-strapped buyers. However, even lessors felt the pinch of rising mortgage rates, forcing them to hoist rent to cover costs and pricing out potential buyers. This led to a slowdown in rental markets in 2023, weighing on revenue growth. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 4% over the five years through 2029 to €238.7 billion. Following a correction during 2024, housing prices are set to being recovering in 2025 as fixed-rate mortgages begin to drop and economic uncertainty subsides, aiding revenue growth in the short term. Over the coming years, Proptech, which has been heavily invested in, will force estate agents to adapt, shaking up the traditional real estate industry. A notable application of Proptech is the use of AI and data analytics to predict a home’s future value.

Companies operating in the third-party real estate industry have had to navigate numerous economic headwinds in recent years, ranging from rising interest rates, spiralling inflation and muted economic growth. Revenue is projected to sink at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2024, including an estimated slump of 2.1% in 2024 to €196.2 billion, while the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 34.6%. Amid spiralling inflation, central banks across Europe ratcheted up interest rates, resulting in borrowing costs skyrocketing in the two years through 2023. In residential markets, elevated mortgage rates combined with tightening credit conditions eventually ate into demand, inciting a drop in house prices. Rental markets performed well when house prices were elevated, being the cheaper alternative for cash-strapped buyers. However, even lessors felt the pinch of rising mortgage rates, forcing them to hoist rent to cover costs and pricing out potential buyers. This led to a slowdown in rental markets in 2023, weighing on revenue growth. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 4% over the five years through 2029 to €238.7 billion. Following a correction during 2024, housing prices are set to being recovering in 2025 as fixed-rate mortgages begin to drop and economic uncertainty subsides, aiding revenue growth in the short term. Over the coming years, Proptech, which has been heavily invested in, will force estate agents to adapt, shaking up the traditional real estate industry. A notable application of Proptech is the use of AI and data analytics to predict a home’s future value.

House prices in the UK rose dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic, with growth slowing down in 2022 and turning negative in 2023. The year-on-year annual house price change peaked at 14 percent in July 2022. In June 2024, house prices increased by 2.7 percent. According to the Nationwide Building Society, the average house price exceeded 265,000 British pounds in 2022. Correction in housing prices: a European phenomenon The trend of a growing residential real estate market was not exclusive to the UK during the pandemic. Likewise, many European countries experienced falling prices in 2023. When comparing residential property RHPI (price index in real terms, e.g. corrected for inflation), countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain also saw prices decline. Sweden, one of the countries with the fastest growing residential markets, saw one of the largest declines in prices. How has demand for UK housing changed since the outbreak of the coronavirus? The easing of the lockdown was followed by a dramatic increase in home sales. In November 2020, the number of mortgage approvals reached an all-time high of over 107,000. One of the reasons for the housing boom were the low mortgage rates, allowing home buyers to take out a loan with an interest rate as low as 2.5 percent. That changed as the Bank of England started to raise the base lending rate, resulting in higher borrowing costs and a decline in homebuyer sentiment.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

Companies operating in the third-party real estate industry have had to navigate numerous economic headwinds in recent years, ranging from rising interest rates, spiralling inflation and muted economic growth. Revenue is projected to sink at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2024, including an estimated slump of 2.1% in 2024 to €196.2 billion, while the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 34.6%. Amid spiralling inflation, central banks across Europe ratcheted up interest rates, resulting in borrowing costs skyrocketing in the two years through 2023. In residential markets, elevated mortgage rates combined with tightening credit conditions eventually ate into demand, inciting a drop in house prices. Rental markets performed well when house prices were elevated, being the cheaper alternative for cash-strapped buyers. However, even lessors felt the pinch of rising mortgage rates, forcing them to hoist rent to cover costs and pricing out potential buyers. This led to a slowdown in rental markets in 2023, weighing on revenue growth. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 4% over the five years through 2029 to €238.7 billion. Following a correction during 2024, housing prices are set to being recovering in 2025 as fixed-rate mortgages begin to drop and economic uncertainty subsides, aiding revenue growth in the short term. Over the coming years, Proptech, which has been heavily invested in, will force estate agents to adapt, shaking up the traditional real estate industry. A notable application of Proptech is the use of AI and data analytics to predict a home’s future value.

Companies operating in the third-party real estate industry have had to navigate numerous economic headwinds in recent years, ranging from rising interest rates, spiralling inflation and muted economic growth. Revenue is projected to sink at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2024, including an estimated slump of 2.1% in 2024 to €196.2 billion, while the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 34.6%. Amid spiralling inflation, central banks across Europe ratcheted up interest rates, resulting in borrowing costs skyrocketing in the two years through 2023. In residential markets, elevated mortgage rates combined with tightening credit conditions eventually ate into demand, inciting a drop in house prices. Rental markets performed well when house prices were elevated, being the cheaper alternative for cash-strapped buyers. However, even lessors felt the pinch of rising mortgage rates, forcing them to hoist rent to cover costs and pricing out potential buyers. This led to a slowdown in rental markets in 2023, weighing on revenue growth. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 4% over the five years through 2029 to €238.7 billion. Following a correction during 2024, housing prices are set to being recovering in 2025 as fixed-rate mortgages begin to drop and economic uncertainty subsides, aiding revenue growth in the short term. Over the coming years, Proptech, which has been heavily invested in, will force estate agents to adapt, shaking up the traditional real estate industry. A notable application of Proptech is the use of AI and data analytics to predict a home’s future value.

Commercial property prices in the U.S. increased plateaued in 2023 after a period of rapid growth between 2014 and 2021. In the third quarter of 2023, the commercial property price index equaled 207.61 index points, reflecting a double increase in prices since 2010, which was the baseline year for the index. How have prices of different property types developed over the past years? After more than a decade of uninterrupted growth, office real estate prices started to decline in 2022, reflecting a decline in occupier demand and a tougher lending environment. Industrial real estate prices, which have grown rapidly over the past few years, also experienced a correction in late 2022. Retail real estate prices displayed most resilience amid the difficult economic environment, with the equal weighed repeat sales index remaining stable. How much is invested in new commercial properties? The value of commercial real estate construction has been on the rise since 2010 in the United States. This trend mirrors the recovery seen across all economic sectors after the 2007-2009 recession. However, investment volumes in commercial property vary by type, with private office space, warehouses, and retails reading the pack.

After growing by about 10 percent in 2921, Sweden's house prices started to decrease in the second half of 2022. The correction was the strongest in the final quarter of the year. As of the third quarter of 2023, the year-on-year decline was 2.93 percent. When accounting for inflation, the decrease was even higher, at eight percent.

This table shows the price development of newly built and existing dwellings purchased by households. Aside from the price indices, Statistics Netherlands also publishes figures on the number, average purchase price and total sum of the purchase prices of the sold dwellings.

Data available from: 1st quarter 2015

Status of the figures: The figures in this table that are associated with existing homes (PBK) are final. The figures in this table that are associated with new dwellings (PNK) are one period provisional. The figures in this table that are associated with the number of sold dwellings and the average purchase price and related to newly built dwellings and total figures are four periods provisional.

Changes as of 9th of January 2025: New figures have been added for period 3rd quarter 2024.

Changes as of 27th of June 2024: The figures regarding new-build owner-occupied homes for the period 2023 have been corrected as a result of the application of a new methodology.

When will new figures be published? New figures are published in April 2025.

In 2022, house price growth in the UK slowed, after a period of decade-long increase. Nevertheless, in August 2024, prices reached a new peak, with the average home costing close to 290,000 British pounds. That figure refers to all property types, including detached, semi-detached, terraced houses, and flats and maisonettes. Compared to other European countries, the UK had some of the highest house prices. How have UK house prices increased over the last 10 years? Property prices have risen dramatically over the past decade. According to the UK house price index, the average house price has grown by over 50 percent since 2015. This price development has led to the gap between the cost of buying and renting a property to close. In 2023, buying a three-bedroom house in the UK was no longer more affordable than renting one. Consequently, Brits have become more likely to rent longer and push off making a house purchase until they have saved up enough for a down payment and achieved the financial stability required to make the step. What caused the decline in house prices in 2022? House prices are affected by multiple factors, such as mortgage rates, supply, and demand on the market. For nearly a decade, the UK experienced uninterrupted house price growth as a result of strong demand and a chronic undersupply. Homebuyers who purchased a property at the peak of the housing boom in July 2022 paid 14 percent more compared to what they would have paid a year before. Additionally, 2022 saw the most dramatic increase in mortgage rates in recent history. Between December 2021 and December 2022, the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubled, adding further strain to prospective homebuyers. As a result, the market cooled, leading to a correction in pricing.

United States - Net housing value added: Net operating surplus: Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment was 931.23900 Bil. of $ in January of 2023, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Net housing value added: Net operating surplus: Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment reached a record high of 931.23900 in January of 2023 and a record low of 1.86500 in January of 1934. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Net housing value added: Net operating surplus: Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Residential real estate prices fell across most markets in Canada in 2023; however, two markets, North Bay and Sault Ste. Marie, ON, experienced double-digit growth. Metro Vancouver, one of Canada's most expensive markets for housing, recorded house price growth of four percent. According to the forecast, prices are expected to increase in most markets under observation. In Vancouver, the increase is forecast at two percent.

After declining slightly in the third quarter of 2023, the value of the Halifax standardized house price increased in the fourth quarter of the year. The average house price stood at approximately 287,000 British pounds in December, up from approximately 279,000 British pounds in September 2023. The correction is a result of the combination of the rising interest rates, dramatic house price increase since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, and the low housing inventory.