In a 2019 analysis, Riverside, California was the most at risk of a housing downturn in a recession out of the 50 largest metro areas in the United States. The Californian metro area received an overall score of 72.8 percent, which was compiled after factors such as home price volatility and average home loan-to-value ratio were examined.

The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost seven million after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to 4.8 million. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q4 2024 about sales, median, housing, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States (USSTHPI) from Q1 1975 to Q4 2024 about appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The foreclosure rate in the United States has experienced significant fluctuations over the past two decades, reaching its peak in 2010 at 2.23 percent following the financial crisis. Since then, the rate has steadily declined, with a notable drop to 0.11 percent in 2021 due to government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, the rate stood slightly higher at 0.23 percent but remained well below historical averages, indicating a relatively stable housing market. Impact of economic conditions on foreclosures The foreclosure rate is closely tied to broader economic trends and housing market conditions. During the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the share of non-performing mortgage loans climbed significantly, with loans 90 to 180 days past due reaching 4.6 percent. Since then, the share of seriously delinquent loans has dropped notably, demonstrating a substantial improvement in mortgage performance. Among other things, the improved mortgage performance has to do with changes in the mortgage approval process. Homebuyers are subject to much stricter lending standards, such as higher credit score requirements. These changes ensure that borrowers can meet their payment obligations and are at a lower risk of defaulting and losing their home. Challenges for potential homebuyers Despite the low foreclosure rates, potential homebuyers face significant challenges in the current market. Homebuyer sentiment worsened substantially in 2021 and remained low across all age groups through 2024, with the 45 to 64 age group expressing the most negative outlook. Factors contributing to this sentiment include high housing costs and various financial obligations. For instance, in 2023, 52 percent of non-homeowners reported that student loan expenses hindered their ability to save for a down payment.

The house price-to-income ratio in Australia was 122.1 as of the third quarter of 2024. This ratio, calculated by dividing nominal house prices by nominal disposable income per head, increased from the previous quarter. The price-to-income ratio can be used to measure housing affordability in a specific area. Australia's property bubble There has been considerable debate over the past decade about whether Australia is in a property bubble or not. A property bubble refers to a sharp increase in the price of property that is disproportional to income and rental prices, followed by a decline. In Australia, rising house prices have undoubtedly been an issue for many potential homeowners, pricing them out of the market. Along with the average house price, high mortgage interest rates have exacerbated the issue. Is the homeownership dream out of reach? Housing affordability has varied across the different states and territories in Australia. In 2024, the median value of residential houses was the highest in Sydney compared to other major Australian cities, with Brisbane becoming an increasingly expensive city. Nonetheless, expected interest rate cuts in 2025, alongside the expansion of initiatives to improve Australia's dwelling stock, social housing supply, and first-time buyer accessibility to properties, may start to improve the situation. These encompass initiatives such as the Australian government's Help to Buy scheme and the Housing Australia Future Fund Facility (HAFFF) and National Housing Accord Facility (NHAF) programs.

The average resale house price in Canada was forecast to reach nearly 836,000 Canadian dollars in 2026, according to a January forecast. In 2024, house prices increased after falling for the first time since 2019. One of the reasons for the price correction was the notable drop in transaction activity. Housing transactions picked up in 2024 and are expected to continue to grow until 2026. British Columbia, which is the most expensive province for housing, is projected to see the average house price reach 1.2 million Canadian dollars in 2026. Affordability in Vancouver Vancouver is the most populous city in British Columbia and is also infamously expensive for housing. In 2023, the city topped the ranking for least affordable housing market in Canada, with the average homeownership cost outweighing the average household income. There are a multitude of reasons for this, but most residents believe that foreigners investing in the market cause the high housing prices. Victoria housing market The capital of British Columbia is Victoria, where housing prices are also very high. The price of a single family home in Victoria's most expensive suburb, Oak Bay was 1.9 million Canadian dollars in 2024.

Graph and download economic data for S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller MA-Boston Home Price Index (BOXRSA) from Jan 1987 to Dec 2024 about Boston, NH, MA, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

In the first quarter of 2019, more than half of office real estate lenders who were asked about the vulnerability of the coworking model to an economic downturn felt that the coworking model is less vulnerable than traditional office real estate (61 percent). In contrast, more than half of traditional office landlords (54 percent) believe that it makes no difference. An economic downturn, also known as a recession, can be defined as a slowdown in economic activity over a sustained period of time.

The average Canadian house price declined slightly in 2023, after four years of consecutive growth. The average house price stood at 678,282 Canadian dollars in 2023 and was forecast to reach 746,379 Canadian dollars by 2026. Home sales on the rise The number of housing units sold is also set to increase over the two-year period. From 443,511 units sold, the annual number of home sales in the country is expected to rise to 453,704 in 2025. British Columbia and Ontario have traditionally been housing markets with prices above the Canadian average, and both are set to witness an increase in sales in 2025. How did Canadians feel about the future development of house prices? When it comes to consumer confidence in the performance of the real estate market in the next six months, Canadian consumers in 2024 mostly expected that the market would go up. A slightly lower share of the respondents believed real estate prices would remain the same.

Most of the German population rented their housing. In 2023, around 37 million people did so, compared to roughly 27.9 million who had their own house. The German real estate market does offer different housing options, but it is also an increasingly tough one for tenants and future homeowners to navigate amid the ongoing recession. Competitive and expensive Becoming a homeowner is getting more and more difficult in Germany. After almost a decade of uninterrupted growth, the market has entered a period of downturn. For years, homebuyers could access cheap credit, with mortgage rates as low as 1.5 percent. However, in 2022 and 2023, mortgage rates have increased strongly to over four percent, making it much more expensive to invest in residential property. In addition to that, prices for owner occupied houses have increased by over 57 percent since 2015, house price growth had also overtaken that of rentals the same year, making renting the cheaper living option, especially for younger people. The summary of the housing situation sounds familiar worldwide: fierce competition in urban areas when searching for rentals, with demand far outstripping supply, as well as rising property prices for those considering a house purchase. Somewhere to live The decision to rent rather than buy may occur for various reasons. Tenants may simply not be ready financially to buy a home, be that a house or apartment, or they would not be considered by a bank for a loan based on their current earnings. They may be pressed for time and hope to find a place to rent quicker, while buying a home is a long-term commitment, leading to different types of costs and legalities. A decreasing number of people lived in shared apartments in recent years, but figures had not changed so much as to rule this type of housing out as a popular option. Shared or not, the average rent prices of residential property in Germany have been going up year after year, both for new buildings and older ones.

The average price per square foot of floor space in new single-family housing in the United States decreased after the great financial crisis, followed by several years of stagnation. Since 2012, the price has continuously risen, hitting 168 U.S. dollars per square foot in 2022. In 2024, the average sales price of a new home exceeded 500,000 U.S. dollars. Development of house sales in the U.S. One of the reasons for rising property prices is the gradual growth of house sales between 2011 and 2020. This period was marked by the gradual recovery following the subprime mortgage crisis and a growing housing sentiment. Another significant factor for the housing demand was the growing number of new household formations each year. Despite this trend, housing transactions plummeted in 2021, amid soaring prices and borrowing costs. In 2021, the average construction cost for single-family housing rose by nearly 12 percent year-on-year, and in 2022, the increase was even higher, at close to 17 percent. Financing a house purchase Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2022 and remained elevated until 2024. In 2020, a homebuyer could lock in a 30-year fixed interest rate of under three percent, whereas in 2024, the average rate for the same mortgage type was more than twice higher. That has led to a decline in homebuyer sentiment, and an increasing share of the population pessimistic about buying a home in the current market.

New Zealand has one of the highest house price-to-income ratios in the world; nonetheless, since the first quarter of 2022, the country's house price-to-income ratio started to trend downward. In the second quarter of 2024, the ratio was 119.4, a slight decrease from the same quarter of the previous year. This ratio was calculated by dividing nominal house prices by nominal disposable income per head and is considered a measure of affordability. Homeownership dream New Zealand has been in what is widely considered a housing bubble. The disproportionately large increases in residential house prices have placed the dream of owning their own home out of reach for many in the country. In 2024, around 28 percent of residential properties were sold for over a million New Zealand dollars. The majority of mortgage lending in the country went to owner-occupiers where the property was not their first home, with first-home buyers often struggling to secure a loan. In general, only New Zealand residents and citizens can buy homes in the country to live in, with new regulations tightening investment activity in that market. Rent affordability Due to New Zealand's high property prices, many individuals and families are stuck renting for prolonged periods. However, with rent prices increasing across the country and the share of monthly income spent on rent trending upwards in tandem with a highly competitive rental market, renting is becoming a less appealing prospect for many. The Auckland and Bay of Plenty regions had the highest weekly rent prices across the country as of December 2024, with the Southland region recording the lowest rent prices per week.

Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

Inhabitants of the Ibizan municipality of Santa Eulalia del Río needed almost 60 years of household income to pay off their mortgage in 2018, making this coastal town the least affordable municipality to purchase a property in Spain. In contrast, the most affordable area to purchase a home in Spain that year was located in Andalusia. Furthermore, the central region of Castile-La Mancha appeared several times on the list of most affordable municipalities to rent in Spain.

The most expensive coastal areas Out of the five main islands that comprise the Balearic province, three are listed as the most expensive coastal areas of Spain. Ibiza and Formentera’s coasts ranked as the least affordable coasts in terms of property prices, with their average price per square meter amounting to nearly 3.8 thousand euros. The Basque province of Gipuzkoa was the second most expensive coastal area of Spain, with an average price that reached approximately 2.35 thousand euros per square meter as of the first quarter of 2019.

Spain: the rebirth of a broken property market After a long period of time in which Spain’s real estate prices increased sharply, the market was hit by the global financial crisis of 2007, making the Spanish property bubble collapse and damaging home value. According to the European Mortgage Federation (EMF), real estate prices in Spain initiated a solid recovery in 2015, reaching 78.7 house price index points in 2018 from a lowest point of 70.8 index points recorded in 2014. The property market has made great progress, but it is still far off the rest of its European counterparts, and it is positioned, in fact, at the bottom of the European list of the EMF’s house price index, which is led by Sweden at 160.6 index points. In 2016, 200 thousand euros could still buy a 119 square-meter home on average in Spain, whereas it would only allow for a 50 square-meter apartment in France.

In 2023, the average price of real estate in China was approximately 10,438 yuan per square meter, representing a decrease from the previous year. Rising prices in the real estate market Since the 1998 housing reform, property prices in China have been rising continuously. Housing in the country is now often unaffordable, especially considering the modest per capita income of Chinese households. Shanghai and Beijing even have some of the most competitive real estate markets in the world. The rapid growth in housing prices has increased wealth among homeowners, while it also led to a culture of speculation among buyers and real estate developers. Housing was treated as investments, with owners expecting the prices to grow further every year. Risk factors The expectation of a steadily growing real estate market has created a property bubble and a potential debt crisis. As Chinese real estate giants, such as China Evergrande and Country Garden, operate by continuously acquiring land plots and initiating new projects, which often require substantial loans and investments, a slowdown in property demands or a decline in home prices can significantly affect the financial situation of these companies, putting China’s banks in a vulnerable position. In addition, due to a lack of regulations and monetary constraints, the long-term maintenance issues of high-rise apartments are also a concern to the sustainable development of China’s cities.

The average Canadian house price declined slightly in 2023, after four years of consecutive growth. The average house price stood at 678,282 Canadian dollars in 2023 and was forecast to reach 722,063 Canadian dollars by 2025. Home sales on the rise The number of housing units sold is also set to increase over the two-year period. From 443,511 units sold, the annual number of home sales in the country is expected to fall to 489,661 in 2024. British Columbia and Ontario have traditionally been housing markets with prices above the Canadian average, and both are set to witness an increase in sales in 2024. How did Canadians feel about the future development of house prices? When it comes to consumer confidence in the performance of the real estate market in the next six months, Canadian consumers in 2024 mostly expected that the market would go up. A slightly lower share of the respondents believed real estate prices would remain the same.

After surging in 2021, sales activity in the Canadian housing market slowed down in the next two years. According to the forecast, the number of home sales in 2025 is expected to reach almost 525,500. The Canadian residential housing market is going through a period of change because the skyrocketing home prices are being tempered by various governmental interventions. One of the measures is such as a two-year ban on foreign purchases. Additionally, the government introduced a tax on vacant foreign-owned housing and a tax on assignment sales - resales of homes that have not been constructed or lived in before the time of the sale.

The average price for a house in Quebec stood at approximately 487,000 Canadian dollars in 2023 and was set to increase slightly in the next two years. In 2025, the average price is forecast to reach 512,000 Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, the national average house price was forecast to pick up in 2025. Compared to other provinces, Quebec was the third-most expensive province to buy housing in Canada, after British Columbia and Ontario. Quebec Located on the eastern side of Canada, Quebec had an estimated population of almost nine million people in 2022. It is the second most populated province in Canada, and the second-largest by land size, as it is three times the size of Texas. The largest city in Quebec is Montreal, which is close to the Vermont border in the United States. The median total family income in Quebec has been steadily rising since 2000. Housing Prices in Canada Housing prices in Canada vary province to province. The most expensive average house price was in British Columbia in 2022. Vancouver, the most populated city in British Columbia, is known for its high-priced real estate market. However, housing prices all over Canada have increased in the past couple of years.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2023. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 117.5 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.