The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost ************* after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to ***********. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States (USSTHPI) from Q1 1975 to Q1 2025 about appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q1 2025 about sales, median, housing, and USA.

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, was created by the U.S. congress in 1938, in order to maintain liquidity and stability in the domestic mortgage market. The company is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), meaning that while it was a publicly traded company for most of its history, it was still supported by the federal government. While there is no legally binding guarantee of shares in GSEs or their securities, it is generally acknowledged that the U.S. government is highly unlikely to let these enterprises fail. Due to these implicit guarantees, GSEs are able to access financing at a reduced cost of interest. Fannie Mae's main activity is the purchasing of mortgage loans from their originators (banks, mortgage brokers etc.) and packaging them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to ease the access of U.S. homebuyers to housing credit. The early 2000s U.S. mortgage finance boom During the early 2000s, Fannie Mae was swept up in the U.S. housing boom which eventually led to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The association's stated goal of increasing access of lower income families to housing finance coalesced with the interests of private mortgage lenders and Wall Street investment banks, who had become heavily reliant on the housing market to drive profits. Private lenders had begun to offer riskier mortgage loans in the early 2000s due to low interest rates in the wake of the "Dot Com" crash and their need to maintain profits through increasing the volume of loans on their books. The securitized products created by these private lenders did not maintain the standards which had traditionally been upheld by GSEs. Due to their market share being eaten into by private firms, however, the GSEs involved in the mortgage markets began to also lower their standards, resulting in a 'race to the bottom'. The fall of Fannie Mae The lowering of lending standards was a key factor in creating the housing bubble, as mortgages were now being offered to borrowers with little or no ability to repay the loans. Combined with fraudulent practices from credit ratings agencies, who rated the junk securities created from these mortgage loans as being of the highest standard, this led directly to the financial panic that erupted on Wall Street beginning in 2007. As the U.S. economy slowed down in 2006, mortgage delinquency rates began to spike. Fannie Mae's losses in the mortgage security market in 2006 and 2007, along with the losses of the related GSE 'Freddie Mac', had caused its share value to plummet, stoking fears that it may collapse. On September 7th 2008, Fannie Mae was taken into government conservatorship along with Freddie Mac, with their stocks being delisted from stock exchanges in 2010. This act was seen as an unprecedented direct intervention into the economy by the U.S. government, and a symbol of how far the U.S. housing market had fallen.

Affordable Housing Market Analysis The global affordable housing market is projected to reach $1,983.52 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.71% from 2025 to 2033. The rising population, urbanization, affordability crisis, and supportive government policies are the primary drivers fueling market growth. The increasing demand for affordable single-family homes, multi-family units, and townhouses, coupled with the adoption of innovative construction methods like prefabrication, 3D printing, and sustainable construction, are key trends shaping the market. The market faces restraints such as escalating land and construction costs, regulatory challenges, and the shortage of skilled labor. Nevertheless, the emergence of crowdfunding platforms and non-profit organizations providing financial assistance, as well as government subsidies and tax incentives, are expected to mitigate these constraints. The market is segmented based on housing type, funding source, construction method, and target demographics. D.R. Horton, Taylor Morrison, PulteGroup, Zillow, Hovnanian Enterprises, and Lennar Corporation are notable companies in the global affordable housing market, with operations in key regions like North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Recent developments include: Recent developments in the Affordable Housing Market have highlighted the urgent need for innovative housing solutions as governments and organizations strive to address the growing housing crisis exacerbated by economic challenges and population growth. Various nations are prioritizing policies that encourage public-private partnerships to stimulate investment in affordable housing initiatives. Additionally, the integration of sustainable building practices and smart technologies is gaining traction as stakeholders aim to improve energy efficiency while reducing construction costs. Recent collaborations among international entities and local governments focus on leveraging funding for housing projects, particularly in urban areas where demand is surging. Moreover, rising material costs and labor shortages are prompting stakeholders to explore alternative building materials and methods, including modular construction and 3D printing, to streamline processes. These trends underscore a collective commitment to creating equitable housing opportunities while navigating the complexities of market dynamics, aiming for significant progress by 2032. Overall, this evolving landscape reflects a concerted effort to promote affordability, sustainability, and accessibility in housing worldwide.. Key drivers for this market are: Green building technologies adoption Public-private partnerships expansion Innovative financing solutions development Urban regeneration projects implementation Digital platforms for housing access. Potential restraints include: rising urbanization, government initiatives; increasing housing demand; socioeconomic disparities; affordable financing options.

Context

Data augmentation for housing prices

Content

US Housing Data for 2008-2009 (pre crisis and crisis year) to predict housing prices more accurate

Inspiration

Housing price prediction competition on Kaggle

In a 2019 analysis, Riverside, California was the most at risk of a housing downturn in a recession out of the 50 largest metro areas in the United States. The Californian metro area received an overall score of 72.8 percent, which was compiled after factors such as home price volatility and average home loan-to-value ratio were examined.

The consumer price of housing in urban areas of the United States increased by over four percent in 2024. 2022 and 2023 saw the largest price increases on a year-over-year basis since 2000. Meanwhile, 2010 was the only year in which housing prices decreased. One of the main reasons for that may have been the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007. During that period, the value of new residential construction put in place in the U.S. stagnated.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.

We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of a large-scale housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. We find that the average person in our sample neither timed the market nor were cautious in their home transactions, and did not exhibit awareness of problems in overall housing markets. Certain groups of securitization agents were particularly aggressive in increasing their exposure to housing during this period, suggesting the need to expand the incentives-based view of the crisis to incorporate a role for beliefs.

The home mortgage debt of households and nonprofit organizations amounted to approximately 13.3 trillion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2024. Mortgage debt has been growing steadily since 2014, when it was less than 10 billion U.S. dollars and has increased at a faster rate since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic due to the housing market boom. Home mortgage sector in the United States Home mortgage sector debt in the United States has been steadily growing in recent years and is beginning to come out of a period of great difficulty and problems presented to it by the economic crisis of 2008. For the previous generations in the United States, the real estate market was quite stable. Financial institutions were extending credit to millions of families and allowed them to achieve ownership of their own homes. The growth of the subprime mortgages and, which went some way to contributing to the record of the highest US homeownership rate since records began, meant that many families deemed to be not quite creditworthy were provided the opportunity to purchase homes. The rate of home mortgage sector debt rose in the United States as a direct result of the less stringent controls that resulted from the vetted and extended terms from which loans originated. There was a great deal more liquidity in the market, which allowed greater access to new mortgages. The practice of packaging mortgages into securities, and their subsequent sale into the secondary market as a way of shifting risk, was to be a major factor in the formation of the American housing bubble, one of the greatest contributing factors to the global financial meltdown of 2008.

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT (MSA) (ATNHPIUS25540Q) from Q4 1977 to Q1 2025 about Hartford, CT, appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Home prices in the U.S. reach new heights The American housing market continues to show remarkable resilience, with the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reaching an all-time high of 325.78 in July 2024. This figure represents a significant increase from the index value of 166.24 recorded in January 2015, highlighting the substantial growth in home prices over the past decade. The S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index is based on the prices of single-family homes and is the leading indicator of the American housing market and one of the indicators of the state of the broader economy. The S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index series also includes S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index and S&P/Case Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index – measuring the home price changes in the major U.S. metropolitan areas, as well as twenty composite indices for the leading U.S. cities. Market fluctuations and recovery Despite the overall upward trend, the housing market has experienced some fluctuations in recent years. During the housing boom in 2021, the number of existing home sales reached the highest level since 2006. However, transaction volumes quickly plummeted, as the soaring interest rates and out-of-reach prices led to housing sentiment deteriorating. Factors influencing home prices Several factors have contributed to the rise in home prices, including a chronic supply shortage, the gradual decline in interest rates, and the spike in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the subprime mortgage crisis (2007-2010), the construction of new homes declined dramatically. Although it has gradually increased since then, the number of new building permits, home starts, and completions are still shy from the levels before the crisis. With demand outweighing supply, competition for homes can be fierce, leading to bidding wars and soaring prices. The supply of existing homes is further constrained, as homeowners are less likely to sell and move homes due to the worsened lending conditions.

Despite a short period of decrease after the burst of the U.S. housing bubble and the global financial crisis, the total amount of mortgage debt in the United States has been on the rise in recent years. In 2024, the mortgage debt amounted to 20.83 trillion U.S. dollars, up from 13.5 trillion U.S. dollars a decade ago. Which factors impact the amount of mortgage debt? One of the most important factors responsible for the growth of mortgage debt is the number of home sales: The more home transactions, the more mortgages are sold, adding to the volume of debt outstanding. Additionally, as house prices increase, so does the gross lending and debt outstanding. On the other hand, high numbers of housing unit foreclosures and mortgage debt restructuring and short-sales can reduce mortgage debt. Which property type has the largest share of the mortgage market? The total mortgage debt includes different property types, such as one-to-four family residential, multifamily residential, commercial, and farm, but the overwhelming share of debt can be attributed to mortgage debt one-to-four family residences.

In this paper, the authors set out to date-stamp periods of US housing price explosivity for the period 1830–2013. They make use of several robust techniques that allow them to identify such periods by determining when prices start to exhibit explosivity with respect to its past behaviour and when it recedes to long term stable prices. The first technique used is the Generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test procedure developed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500, 2013), which allows the recursive identification of multiple periods of price explosivity. The second approach makes use of Robinson’s (Efficient Test of Nonstationary Hypotheses, 1994) test statistic, comparing the null of a unit root process against the alternative of speced orders of fractional integration. The analysis date-stamps several periods of US house price explosivity, allowing us to contextualize its historic relevance.

In 2022, the volume of commercial real estate transactions reached 752 billion U.S. dollars, up from 427 billion U.S. dollars in 2020. One of the reasons for the surge was the pandemic and the release of pent-up demand as the economy reopened. A real estate transaction refers to the process of passing the rights in a property unit from the seller to the buyer in return for an agreed upon sum. Effect of 2007-2008 credit crisis The U.S. real estate market reached its peak in 2007, just before the 2007-2008 credit crisis when the property market collapsed. The value of commercial property returns dropped between 2007 and 2009. Since 2010, the market has steadily recovered, and the volume of transactions climbed until 2015, and has levelled out since then. Types of commercial real estate The change in overall transaction volume is most likely impacted by the type of commercial properties which are more attractive to investors in a particular period. For instance, the interest in multifamily housing investment opportunities went down in the same period that interest in hotel investment opportunities went up.

The average price per square foot of floor space in new single-family housing in the United States decreased after the great financial crisis, followed by several years of stagnation. Since 2012, the price has continuously risen, hitting *** U.S. dollars per square foot in 2022. In 2024, the average sales price of a new home exceeded ******* U.S. dollars. Development of house sales in the U.S. One of the reasons for rising property prices is the gradual growth of house sales between 2011 and 2020. This period was marked by the gradual recovery following the subprime mortgage crisis and a growing housing sentiment. Another significant factor for the housing demand was the growing number of new household formations each year. Despite this trend, housing transactions plummeted in 2021, amid soaring prices and borrowing costs. In 2021, the average construction cost for single-family housing rose by nearly ** percent year-on-year, and in 2022, the increase was even higher, at close to ** percent. Financing a house purchase Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2022 and remained elevated until 2024. In 2020, a homebuyer could lock in a 30-year fixed interest rate of under ***** percent, whereas in 2024, the average rate for the same mortgage type was more than twice higher. That has led to a decline in homebuyer sentiment, and an increasing share of the population pessimistic about buying a home in the current market.

The number of new houses sold in the United States took a big hit during the financial crisis, dropping from a high of around *** million houses sold in 2005 to a low of *** thousand homes sold in 2011 – around a ** percent decrease. While the economy has largely recovered since the crisis, consumers remained hesitant when it comes to buying homes. In 2020, demand for housing surged and house sales volumes spiked to *******. Housing construction remains suppressed One of the main challenges in the U.S. housing market is the insufficient number of new homes built. During the financial crisis, construction slowed dramatically, and has still struggled to recover. Construction costs, on the other hand, have risen notably, making homeownership increasingly pricier. House prices on the rise Unsurprisingly, the median sales price of new homes has risen substantially. In 2024, the U.S. Case Shiller National Home Price Index, reached *** index points, suggesting the price of a home tripled since 2000, the base year of the index.

Borrowing against the increase in home equity by existing homeowners was responsible for a significant fraction of the rise in US household leverage from 2002 to 2006 and the increase in defaults from 2006 to 2008. Instrumental variables estimation shows that homeowners extracted 25 cents for every dollar increase in home equity. Home equity-based borrowing was stronger for younger households and households with low credit scores. The evidence suggests that borrowed funds were used for real outlays. Home equity-based borrowing added $1.25 trillion in household debt from 2002 to 2008, and accounts for at least 39 percent of new defaults from 2006 to 2008. JEL: D14, R31

The manufactured home wholesaling industry continues to provide practical solutions to the persisting housing affordability crisis, with manufactured homes delivering up to 50.0% cheaper housing per square foot compared to site-built residences. Factors such as efficient factory production, bulk purchasing of materials and streamlined labor processes contribute to the lower prices. Demand has significantly increased because of elevated mortgage rates and costly site-built homes, with manufactured home production rising 15.9% in 2024. Simultaneously, the shift in ownership from individual owners to larger institutional investors in Manufactured Housing Communities (MHCs) is modifying the customer dynamics for wholesalers. These investors demand higher quantities, standardization and sophisticated services, necessitating operational expansion and increased efficiency from wholesalers. Through the end of 2025, industry revenue has climbed at a CAGR of 4.2% to reach $45.3 billion in 2025, when revenue is set to gain 2.9%. As the elderly population continues to grow, so does demand for cost-effective housing appropriate for fixed-income households, like manufactured homes. The maintenance concerns associated with conventionally built homes are minimized in manufactured homes, attracting seniors who comprise about 40.0% of buyers. Critical industry reshaping regulatory changes introduced by the HUD and USDA, such as the postponed implementation of updated Manufactured Home Construction and Safety Standards (MHCSS) to September 2025, provide more extensive options for potential buyers, expand financing eligibility and enforce modernized safety and energy efficiency requirements. Through the five years to 2030, the industry will remain resilient and experience continued growth because of the persistent housing affordability crisis and the industry's adaptability to economic fluctuations. Product modernization and technological integration in manufactured homes will fuel expansion. These upgrades, in conformity with consumer preferences for comfort, connectivity, eco-conscious living and regulatory energy and safety standards, broaden the attractiveness to varied buyers. The accelerated demand for advanced glass products, a response to green building practices and stricter energy codes, necessitates that wholesalers ensure a consistent supply of innovative glass solutions. Overall, wholesalers should remain agile, cultivate relationships with institutional investors, maintain inventory quality and diversity and establish strategies to navigate the evolving regulatory landscape and consider buyer market trends. Industry revenue will gain at a CAGR of 2.7% to reach an estimated $51.6 billion in 2030.