In the United States, interest rates for all mortgage types started to increase in 2021. This was due to the Federal Reserve introducing a series of hikes in the federal funds rate to contain the rising inflation. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the 30-year fixed rate rose slightly, to **** percent. Despite the increase, the rate remained below the peak of **** percent in the same quarter a year ago. Why have U.S. home sales decreased? Cheaper mortgages normally encourage consumers to buy homes, while higher borrowing costs have the opposite effect. As interest rates increased in 2022, the number of existing homes sold plummeted. Soaring house prices over the past 10 years have further affected housing affordability. Between 2013 and 2023, the median price of an existing single-family home risen by about ** percent. On the other hand, the median weekly earnings have risen much slower. Comparing mortgage terms and rates Between 2008 and 2023, the average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States stood between **** and **** percent. Over the same period, a 30-year mortgage term averaged a fixed-rate of between **** and **** percent. Rates on 15-year loan terms are lower to encourage a quicker repayment, which helps to improve a homeowner’s equity.

30 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States increased to 6.75 percent in July 17 from 6.72 percent in the previous week. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 30 Year Mortgage Rate.

Mortgage interest rates in Czechia have experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years, reaching a peak of nearly six percent in December 2022 before gradually declining. As of March 2025, the interest rate on new mortgages in the country amounted to 4.68 percent, showing a slight decrease from the previous month. This trend in mortgage rates has occurred alongside substantial increases in housing prices. Housing market dynamics The changes in mortgage rates have gone hand in hand with notable shifts in the Czech housing market. Despite the high-interest rates, new mortgage lending reached over 18 million Czech koruna in December 2024, marking a significant increase from the same month in the previous year. This growth in lending has continued despite the steady rise in housing prices, with the house price index reaching 219.9 in the third quarter of 2024. This marks a significant increase from the 2015 baseline, reflecting the ongoing upward trend. The average purchase price per square meter for family houses increasing across the country. In 2023, Prague recorded the highest average price at 111,087 Czech koruna per square meter. Construction sector trends The construction sector in Czechia has shown its response to these market conditions. The index of multi-dwelling building construction fluctuated recently, with 2024 showing a slight decrease to 83.8 index points compared to the previous year. However, regarding non-residential buildings, the construction has been continuously growing since 2018 with hotels and industrial buildings accounting for the majority of new non-residential constructions.

The USA home loan market is experiencing robust growth, projected to maintain a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18% from 2025 to 2033. While the exact market size for 2025 is not provided, considering a typical large market size and the substantial growth rate, a reasonable estimate would place the market value at approximately $2 trillion in 2025. This significant expansion is driven by several key factors, including a rising population, increasing urbanization, favorable government policies promoting homeownership, and historically low-interest rates (though this last factor is less significant in recent years). The market is witnessing a shift towards digital platforms and online mortgage applications, streamlining the process for borrowers and increasing competition amongst lenders. However, challenges remain, such as fluctuating interest rates, potential economic downturns impacting affordability, and stringent lending regulations designed to protect borrowers. The competitive landscape is dominated by major players like Rocket Mortgage, LoanDepot, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, along with regional and independent mortgage lenders. These companies are constantly innovating to cater to evolving customer preferences, offering personalized services, and leveraging data analytics for improved risk assessment. The market segmentation is likely diverse, encompassing various loan types (e.g., fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, FHA, VA loans), loan amounts, and borrower demographics. Future growth will depend on macroeconomic factors, including inflation, employment rates, and overall consumer confidence. Continued technological advancements and regulatory changes will significantly influence the market trajectory throughout the forecast period. Key drivers for this market are: Increase in digitization in mortgage lending market, Increase in innovations in software designs to speed up the mortgage-application process. Potential restraints include: Increase in digitization in mortgage lending market, Increase in innovations in software designs to speed up the mortgage-application process. Notable trends are: Growth in Nonbank Lenders is Expected to Drive the Market.

The US mortgage lending market, a cornerstone of the American economy, is experiencing robust growth, projected to maintain a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 5% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key factors. Firstly, a consistently increasing population and household formations drive demand for housing, consequently boosting mortgage loan originations. Secondly, historically low interest rates in recent years have stimulated borrowing, making homeownership more accessible. Furthermore, government initiatives aimed at supporting homeownership, along with increasing disposable incomes in certain segments of the population, contribute to the market's positive trajectory. The market is segmented by loan type (fixed-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit), service providers (commercial banks, financial institutions, credit unions, and other lenders), and application mode (online and offline). Competition is intense among major players like Bank of America, Chase Bank, and US Bank, with smaller institutions and credit unions vying for market share. While the overall trend is positive, potential headwinds include fluctuations in interest rates, economic downturns impacting consumer confidence, and stringent regulatory environments which can impact lending practices. The geographical distribution of the US mortgage lending market reflects regional economic variations. While the United States dominates North America's market share, growth potential exists across various international markets. European and Asian markets, though characterized by distinct regulatory landscapes and consumer behaviors, present opportunities for expansion. The market's future trajectory will depend on several interconnected factors, including macroeconomic conditions, demographic shifts, and technological advancements influencing the mortgage lending process. The continued adoption of digital technologies is expected to streamline lending processes and expand access, impacting the future of the market significantly. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions are also anticipated, further consolidating the market landscape and driving innovation. Recent developments include: August 2023: Spring EQ, a provider of home equity financing solutions, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Cerberus Capital Management, L.P., a global leader in alternative investing. The main aim of the partnership is to support Spring EQ's mission to deliver offerings and expand its leadership in the home equity financing market., June 2023: VIU by HUB, a digital insurance brokerage platform subsidiary of Hub International Limited, has entered into a new partnership with Unison, a home equity-sharing company. The collaboration will allow homeowners to compare insurance coverage quotes from various carriers and receive expert advice throughout the process.. Key drivers for this market are: Home Renovation Trends are Driving the Market. Potential restraints include: Home Renovation Trends are Driving the Market. Notable trends are: Home Equity Lending Market is Being Stimulated By Rising Home Prices.

Soaring interest rates are filtering through to the housing market, with lenders raising mortgage rates and pulling deals. What effect is this having on the housing market?

The US residential real estate market, a cornerstone of the American economy, is projected to experience steady growth over the next decade. While the provided CAGR of 2.04% is a modest figure, it reflects a market maturing after a period of significant expansion. This sustained growth is driven by several key factors. Firstly, population growth and urbanization continue to fuel demand for housing, particularly in densely populated areas and emerging suburban markets. Secondly, low interest rates (historically, though this can fluctuate) have made mortgages more accessible, stimulating buyer activity. Thirdly, a robust construction sector, though facing challenges in material costs and labor shortages, is gradually increasing the housing supply, mitigating some of the upward pressure on prices. However, challenges remain. Rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes pose a risk to affordability, potentially dampening demand. Furthermore, the ongoing evolution of remote work is reshaping residential preferences, with a shift toward larger homes in suburban or exurban locations. This trend impacts the relative demand for various property types, potentially increasing the appeal of landed houses and villas compared to apartments and condominiums in certain regions. The segmentation of the market into apartments/condominiums and landed houses/villas provides crucial insights into consumer preferences and investment strategies. High-density urban areas will continue to see strong demand for apartments and condos, while suburban and rural areas are likely to experience a greater increase in landed property sales. Major players like Simon Property Group, Mill Creek Residential, and others are strategically adapting to these trends, focusing on both development and management across various property types and geographic locations. Analyzing regional data within the US (e.g., comparing growth in the Northeast versus the Southwest) will highlight market nuances and potential investment opportunities. While the global data provided is valuable for understanding broader market forces, focusing the analysis on the US market allows for a more granular understanding of the specific drivers, trends, and challenges within this significant segment of the real estate sector. The forecast period (2025-2033) suggests continued, albeit measured, expansion. Recent developments include: May 2022: Resource REIT Inc. completed the sale of all of its outstanding shares of common stock to Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust Inc. for USD 14.75 per share in an all-cash deal valued at USD 3.7 billion, including the assumption of the REIT's debt., February 2022: The largest owner of commercial real estate in the world and private equity company Blackstone is growing its portfolio of residential rentals and commercial properties in the United States. The company revealed that it would shell out about USD 6 billion to buy Preferred Apartment Communities, an Atlanta-based real estate investment trust that owns 44 multifamily communities and roughly 12,000 homes in the Southeast, mostly in Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, North Carolina, and the Florida cities of Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa.. Key drivers for this market are: Investment Plan Towards Urban Rail Development. Potential restraints include: Italy’s Fragmented Approach to Tenders. Notable trends are: Existing Home Sales Witnessing Strong Growth.

The Latin American home mortgage finance market exhibits steady growth, projected to reach a market size of $XX million in 2025, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.00% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is fueled by several key factors. Increasing urbanization and a burgeoning middle class are driving demand for homeownership across the region. Government initiatives aimed at improving access to affordable housing, such as subsidized mortgages and reduced interest rates, further stimulate market expansion. Additionally, the development of more sophisticated financial products and improved lending practices by major players like Caixa Economica Federal, Banco do Brasil, Itaú, Bradesco, and Santander, contribute to market expansion. However, economic instability in certain Latin American countries, fluctuating interest rates, and regulatory hurdles remain significant challenges that could potentially hinder growth. The competitive landscape is dominated by established national and international banks, each vying for market share through competitive interest rates, diverse mortgage products, and enhanced digital services. Despite the presence of these major players, opportunities exist for smaller lenders and fintech companies to leverage technological advancements and target niche markets within the region. The market segmentation is diverse, reflecting varying housing costs and income levels across the countries within Latin America. Growth will likely be uneven across the region, with more stable economies experiencing higher growth rates than those facing political or economic uncertainty. Future growth will depend on macroeconomic stability, continued government support for homeownership, and the ability of financial institutions to adapt to the evolving needs of borrowers. Notable trends are: Increase in Economic Growth and GDP per capita.

The mortgage lending market, a cornerstone of the real estate sector, is a dynamic landscape shaped by evolving economic conditions and technological advancements. While precise figures for market size and CAGR are unavailable in the provided data, analysis of major players and industry trends suggests a substantial market. The presence of numerous large institutions like Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America, alongside a competitive field of regional and national lenders, indicates a highly fragmented yet robust market. Drivers include persistent demand for housing, particularly in growth areas, fluctuating interest rates influencing borrowing patterns, and the ongoing digitalization of the mortgage application and processing. Trends show an increasing reliance on online platforms and fintech solutions for streamlined processes, impacting both lenders and borrowers. Regulatory changes, economic uncertainties, and fluctuating interest rates represent key restraints. Segmentation within the market likely includes residential mortgages (conforming, non-conforming, jumbo), refinance loans, and commercial mortgages, each with its own dynamics. The forecast period (2025-2033) suggests a continued evolution of the market, with the potential for consolidation among lenders and ongoing technological disruption. The competitive landscape underscores the importance of efficient operations, innovative technology, and a strong customer experience. Lenders are increasingly leveraging data analytics and AI to improve risk assessment and personalize offerings. The long-term outlook is positive, assuming continued economic growth and consistent housing demand. However, effective risk management and adaptability are crucial for navigating fluctuating interest rates, macroeconomic headwinds, and regulatory shifts. The market's expansion will likely be influenced by demographic trends (millennial homebuyers), government policies on homeownership, and evolving consumer preferences for digital mortgage solutions. Regional variations in housing markets and economic conditions will further impact individual lender performance and overall market growth. Analyzing regional data, though not provided here, would be crucial for a comprehensive market understanding.

Mortgage interest rates worldwide varied greatly in 2024, from less than **** percent in many European countries, to as high as ** percent in Turkey. The average mortgage rate in a country depends on the central bank's base lending rate and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and forecast economic growth. Since 2022, inflationary pressures have led to rapid increase in mortgage interest rates. Which are the leading mortgage markets? An easy way to estimate the importance of the mortgage sector in each country is by comparing household debt depth, or the ratio of the debt held by households compared to the county's GDP. In 2023, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada had some of the highest household debt to GDP ratios worldwide. While this indicator shows the size of the sector relative to the country’s economy, the value of mortgages outstanding allows to compare the market size in different countries. In Europe, for instance, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France were the largest mortgage markets by outstanding mortgage lending. Mortgage lending trends in the U.S. In the United States, new mortgage lending soared in 2021. This was largely due to the growth of new refinance loans that allow homeowners to renegotiate their mortgage terms and replace their existing loan with a more favorable one. Following the rise in interest rates, the mortgage market cooled, and refinance loans declined.

The mortgage interest rate in Germany decreased notably between 2013 and 2022, falling below 1.5 percent. This was part of an overall trend of falling mortgage interest rates in Europe. The mortgage interest rate in Germany has since increased to 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2024. The German mortgage market In Europe, Germany is the second-largest mortgage market, with a total value of mortgages outstanding amounting to over 1.8 trillion euros. Mortgage loans are one of the oldest bank products. Among the factors that influence mortgage interest rates are inflation, economic growth, monetary policies, the bond market, the stability of lenders, and the overall conditions of the housing market. Mortgage loans The higher cost of borrowing has a significant effect on the market: While the interest rates were at their lowest, mortgage lending was on the rise. In 2023, when the rates reached a 10-year-high, the quarterly gross mortgage lending fell to the lowest value since 2014. Meanwhile, house prices have also increased substantially in recent years. According to the House Price Index in Germany, between 2015 and 2022, house prices increased by over 60 percent.

Mortgage Loan Service Market Outlook

The global mortgage loan service market size was valued at approximately $10.5 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $18.2 trillion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.1% during the forecast period. The growth of this market is driven by the increasing urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and favorable government policies aimed at promoting homeownership across various regions. Additionally, the proliferation of digital banking and fintech solutions has made mortgage services more accessible, further contributing to the market's expansion.

One of the primary growth factors for the mortgage loan service market is the significant rise in housing demand globally. As urban populations swell and economic conditions improve, more individuals and families are seeking to purchase homes, driving the need for mortgage loans. This trend is particularly evident in emerging markets, where urbanization is occurring at an unprecedented rate. Governments are also playing a crucial role by implementing policies and grants to make housing more affordable, thereby boosting mortgage adoption.

Technological advancements are another significant factor propelling the mortgage loan service market. The integration of AI, big data analytics, and blockchain technology has revolutionized the way mortgage services are delivered. These technologies streamline application processes, enhance risk assessment, and improve customer service, making it easier and faster for consumers to secure loans. Fintech companies, in particular, are leveraging these technologies to offer more competitive rates and personalized loan products, thereby attracting a broader customer base.

Furthermore, the increasing participation of non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs) and credit unions has diversified the mortgage loan service market. These entities often provide more flexible and innovative loan products compared to traditional banks, meeting the needs of a more varied clientele. NBFIs and credit unions also tend to have more lenient approval processes, making them an attractive option for individuals with non-traditional income sources or lower credit scores. This diversification is contributing significantly to the market's growth.

Mortgage Loans Software is playing an increasingly pivotal role in the evolution of the mortgage loan service market. As the industry embraces digital transformation, software solutions are being developed to streamline the entire mortgage process, from application to approval. These software platforms facilitate better data management, enhance customer experience, and improve operational efficiency for service providers. By automating routine tasks and providing real-time analytics, Mortgage Loans Software helps lenders make more informed decisions, reduce processing times, and minimize errors. This technological advancement is not only beneficial for lenders but also empowers borrowers by offering them greater transparency and control over their mortgage journey.

Regionally, North America continues to dominate the mortgage loan service market due to its well-established financial infrastructure and high homeownership rates. However, the Asia Pacific region is expected to register the fastest growth during the forecast period, driven by rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and government initiatives aimed at affordable housing. Countries like China and India are particularly noteworthy due to their large and growing middle-class populations.

Type Analysis

The mortgage loan service market is segmented by type into fixed-rate mortgages, adjustable-rate mortgages, interest-only mortgages, reverse mortgages, and others. Fixed-rate mortgages are the most popular type, offering borrowers the stability of a constant interest rate over the life of the loan. This makes them particularly attractive in times of low-interest rates, as borrowers can lock in favorable terms for the long term. The predictability of monthly payments also makes fixed-rate mortgages a preferred choice for many homeowners.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) offer lower initial interest rates compared to fixed-rate mortgages, making them an attractive option for borrowers who anticipate an increase in their income or plan to sell their property before the rate adjusts. However, the fluctuating interest rates can pose a risk, especially in volatile economic conditions. Despite this, the flexibility

The number of U.S. home sales in the United States declined in 2024, after soaring in 2021. A total of four million transactions of existing homes, including single-family, condo, and co-ops, were completed in 2024, down from 6.12 million in 2021. According to the forecast, the housing market is forecast to head for recovery in 2025, despite transaction volumes expected to remain below the long-term average. Why have home sales declined? The housing boom during the coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated that being a homeowner is still an integral part of the American dream. Nevertheless, sentiment declined in the second half of 2022 and Americans across all generations agreed that the time was not right to buy a home. A combination of factors has led to house prices rocketing and making homeownership unaffordable for the average buyer. A survey among owners and renters found that the high home prices and unfavorable economic conditions were the two main barriers to making a home purchase. People who would like to purchase their own home need to save up a deposit, have a good credit score, and a steady and sufficient income to be approved for a mortgage. In 2022, mortgage rates experienced the most aggressive increase in history, making the total cost of homeownership substantially higher. Are U.S. home prices expected to fall? The median sales price of existing homes stood at 413,000 U.S. dollars in 2024 and was forecast to increase slightly until 2026. The development of the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index shows that home prices experienced seven consecutive months of decline between June 2022 and January 2023, but this trend reversed in the following months. Despite mild fluctuations throughout the year, home prices in many metros are forecast to continue to grow, albeit at a much slower rate.

Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50 percent) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35 percent). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers with lower incomes and housing wealth have significantly higher marginal propensity to consume. Areas with a larger share of ARMs were more responsive to lower interest rates and saw a relative decline in defaults and an increase in house prices, car purchases, and employment. Household balance sheets and mortgage contract rigidity are important for monetary policy pass-through.

The global mortgage loan service market is experiencing robust growth, driven by factors such as increasing urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and favorable government policies promoting homeownership. The market, valued at approximately $2 trillion in 2025, is projected to exhibit a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is fueled by a burgeoning demand for both residential and commercial mortgages, particularly in emerging economies with rapidly expanding middle classes. The residential segment currently dominates the market share, accounting for approximately 70%, with individual borrowers representing the largest application segment. However, the commercial estate and enterprise segments are witnessing significant growth, driven by increased corporate investments and infrastructural development. Key players like Rocket Mortgage, United Shore Financial Services, and Quicken Loans are leveraging technological advancements such as online platforms and AI-powered loan processing to enhance efficiency and customer experience, shaping the competitive landscape. The growth trajectory is expected to be influenced by fluctuating interest rates, macroeconomic conditions, and evolving regulatory frameworks. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains positive, underpinned by the fundamental drivers mentioned above. Technological advancements, particularly in fintech, are reshaping the mortgage loan service landscape. The rise of digital platforms, streamlined application processes, and enhanced data analytics are significantly improving accessibility and speed of loan approvals. This efficiency boost is leading to increased competition, encouraging lenders to offer more competitive interest rates and flexible repayment options to attract borrowers. Furthermore, the increasing adoption of alternative credit scoring models is broadening access to mortgage loans for previously underserved populations. Regional variations in market growth are expected, with North America and Asia-Pacific representing the largest markets. However, emerging economies in regions like South America and Africa hold significant potential for future growth, given the increasing demand for housing and infrastructural development within these markets. Geographic expansion and strategic partnerships remain key strategies for players aiming for market dominance within this evolving sector.

The US Home Loan Market Report is Segmented by Loan Purpose (Purchase, Home Improvement/Renovation, Others), Provider (Banks, Housing Finance Companies, Others), Interest Rates (Fixed Interest Rates, Floating Interest Rates), and Loan Tenure (Less Than or Equal To 10 Years, 11 – 20 Years, and Longer Than 20 Years). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

The mortgage lending market is a dynamic sector exhibiting substantial growth potential. While precise figures for market size and CAGR are absent from the provided data, a reasonable estimation can be made considering industry trends. Assuming a conservative market size of $2 trillion in 2025 and a CAGR of 5% (a figure reflecting moderate growth in a mature market), the market is projected to reach approximately $2.5 trillion by 2033. This growth is fueled by several key drivers, including a persistently strong housing market in certain regions, historically low interest rates (although this factor is less influential now due to recent interest rate hikes), and an increasing demand for refinancing options as homeowners seek better terms. Furthermore, technological advancements, such as the rise of online lending platforms and improved digital mortgage applications, are streamlining the process and expanding accessibility. However, the market also faces certain restraints. Rising interest rates represent a significant challenge, potentially dampening demand for new mortgages and refinancing. Stricter lending regulations and increased scrutiny on borrowers’ creditworthiness can also limit growth. Competition within the sector, as evidenced by the numerous large and small players listed (Wells Fargo Bank, Quicken Loans, JPMorgan Chase Bank, etc.), remains intense, requiring lenders to continuously innovate and offer competitive products and services to maintain market share. Finally, economic uncertainties, such as potential recessions, invariably impact the demand for mortgages, potentially slowing down overall market growth. Despite these constraints, the long-term outlook for the mortgage lending market remains positive, driven by ongoing population growth and the persistent need for housing.

The mortgage refinancing market is a dynamic sector experiencing significant growth, driven by fluctuating interest rates and homeowners' desire to lower their monthly payments or access home equity. While precise figures for market size and CAGR are absent from the provided data, a reasonable estimation can be made based on industry trends. Considering the substantial activity in the US market and global economic fluctuations impacting interest rates, a conservative estimate would place the 2025 market size at approximately $500 billion USD. This figure is supported by historical data showing periods of high refinancing activity during interest rate declines. The market's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) likely fluctuates based on macroeconomic factors such as central bank policies and overall economic health. A projected CAGR of 3-5% over the forecast period (2025-2033) would be a realistic assumption, considering the cyclical nature of the refinancing market. Key drivers include consistently low interest rates in certain regions and periods, homeowner demand for better mortgage terms, and the availability of various refinancing options catering to diverse financial needs, such as fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, and cash-out refinancing. Trends show increasing adoption of online platforms and fintech solutions that streamline the refinancing process, along with a growing preference for personalized financial advice. However, restraints include economic uncertainty, potential interest rate hikes, stringent lending criteria, and the inherent complexity involved in the refinancing procedure. Segmentation analysis reveals a substantial portion of the market is dominated by personal refinancing, further highlighting the individual homeowner's crucial role in driving market growth. Major players, including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Rocket Companies, are leveraging their established networks and technological advancements to maintain market share in a competitive landscape. The geographical distribution of the refinancing market reflects global economic conditions and varying levels of homeownership. North America, especially the United States, remains a dominant market due to high homeownership rates and a sophisticated financial system. Europe and Asia-Pacific are also significant markets, with growth patterns influenced by regional economic factors and prevailing interest rate environments. The future of the refinancing market will depend largely on interest rate trends, economic stability, and continuous innovations in the fintech sector. Strategic partnerships between traditional lenders and fintech companies are likely to shape market dynamics further. Competitive pressures will push lenders to offer better rates, more flexible terms, and enhanced digital services to cater to the increasingly sophisticated needs of borrowers.

This paper shows that a macro model with segmented financial markets can generate sizable movements in housing prices in response to changes in credit conditions. We establish theoretically that reductions in mortgage rates always have a positive effect on prices, whereas the relaxation of loan-to-value constraints has ambiguous effects. A quantitative version of the model under perfect foresight accounts for about one-half of the observed price increase in the United States in the 2000s. When we include shocks to expectations about housing finance conditions, the model's ability to match house values improves significantly. The framework reconciles the observed disconnect between house prices and rents since, in general equilibrium, financial shocks can decrease rents and increase prices.

In May 29, 2019, FHFA published its final Monthly Interest Rate Survey (MIRS), due to dwindling participation by financial institutions. MIRS had provided information on a monthly basis on interest rates, loan terms, and house prices by property type (all, new, previously occupied); by loan type (fixed- or adjustable-rate), and by lender type (savings associations, mortgage companies, commercial banks and savings banks); as well as information on 15-year and 30-year, fixed-rate loans. Additionally, MIRS provided quarterly information on conventional loans by major metropolitan area and by Federal Home Loan Bank district, and was used to compile FHFA’s monthly adjustable-rate mortgage index entitled the “National Average Contract Mortgage Rate for the Purchase of Previously Occupied Homes by Combined Lenders,” also known as the ARM Index.