Explore the factors influencing the retail price of lumber, including impacts from the housing market, supply chain disruptions, tariffs, environmental events, and currency exchange rates, and understand recent price trends as the global economy recovers from the pandemic.

The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost ************* after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to ***********. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Discover how proposed tariffs on Canadian lumber are creating a divide in the U.S. housing market, with stakeholders debating their impact on home building and affordability.

The average Canadian house price declined slightly in 2023, after four years of consecutive growth. The average house price stood at ******* Canadian dollars in 2023 and was forecast to reach ******* Canadian dollars by 2026. Home sales on the rise The number of housing units sold is also set to increase over the two-year period. From ******* units sold, the annual number of home sales in the country is expected to rise to ******* in 2025. British Columbia and Ontario have traditionally been housing markets with prices above the Canadian average, and both are set to witness an increase in sales in 2025. How did Canadians feel about the future development of house prices? When it comes to consumer confidence in the performance of the real estate market in the next six months, Canadian consumers in 2024 mostly expected that the market would go up. A slightly lower share of the respondents believed real estate prices would remain the same.

The average resale house price in Canada was forecast to reach nearly ******* Canadian dollars in 2026, according to a January forecast. In 2024, house prices increased after falling for the first time since 2019. One of the reasons for the price correction was the notable drop in transaction activity. Housing transactions picked up in 2024 and are expected to continue to grow until 2026. British Columbia, which is the most expensive province for housing, is projected to see the average house price reach *** million Canadian dollars in 2026. Affordability in Vancouver Vancouver is the most populous city in British Columbia and is also infamously expensive for housing. In 2023, the city topped the ranking for least affordable housing market in Canada, with the average homeownership cost outweighing the average household income. There are a multitude of reasons for this, but most residents believe that foreigners investing in the market cause the high housing prices. Victoria housing market The capital of British Columbia is Victoria, where housing prices are also very high. The price of a single family home in Victoria's most expensive suburb, Oak Bay was *** million Canadian dollars in 2024.

Explore the volatile landscape of lumber prices influenced by supply chain disruptions, demand fluctuations, tariffs, housing market trends, and sustainability concerns, as well as the impact of natural disasters and geopolitical factors shaping the industry in 2023.

The lumber industry has experienced significant volatility in recent years, with fluctuating prices impacting both the market and wider economy. During the pandemic, a housing boom driven by low interest rates and increased disposable income led to a surge in demand for lumber, significantly boosting mill revenues. However, prices later tumbled, affecting revenue as higher interest rates cooled the housing market and reduced demand for construction. Lumber production and shipments experienced declines, and the industry faced operating losses due to decreased demand. Looking ahead, prices are expected to rise due to tariffs on Canadian lumber imports and previous supply shortages, although high mortgage rates may still dampen demand. The ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the U.S. has resulted in increased tariffs, impacting Canadian producers who supply softwood lumber to the US market. Industry revenue is expected to rise at a CAGR of 2.6% to $51.6 billion through the end of 2025, with 2.0% growth forecast for the current year. Industry profit is expected to recover alongside rising lumber prices this year as well. The US housing market plays a crucial role in the lumber industry by driving demand for wooden materials used in construction and renovation. Despite past challenges with high interest rates and elevated home prices hurting residential investments and reducing lumber demand, there is optimism that the recent Federal Reserve rate will eventually translate to lower mortgage rates, potentially rejuvenating the housing market and building material demand. Even with these promising signs, a significant affordability barrier remains as home prices continue to overshadow median incomes, discouraging many first-time buyers and thus impeding growth in the housing market, impacting lumber demand negatively. The industry is also dealing with profitability challenges due to high costs and declining lumber prices, which have led to sawmill closures and under-utilization of capacities, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency. As a response, the industry is likely to see consolidation within domestic mill operations to maintain profitability amid market fluctuations. A notable development in the sector is the growth of the cross-laminated timber (CLT) specialist subsector, which promises a boom, supported by innovations in fire retardant technology and approvals for new timber certifications, like eastern hemlock trees, broadening opportunities for sustainable construction. Revenue is expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.6% to $55.9 billion through the end of 2030.

The recent housing market cycle has driven the sawmill and wood production industry’s performance. Initially, the surge in residential construction and renovation in Canada and the US in 2021, spurred by low interest rates and high disposable incomes, drove significant demand for softwood lumber, leading to a 43.5% jump in revenue for industry mills. However, rising interest rates in 2022 cooled housing demand, causing a significant drop in lumber prices and revenue. In 2024, the industry faced ongoing challenges due to rising costs, tariffs and reduced demand, with major companies like West Fraser and Canfor reporting losses and closing mills to correct the supply-demand imbalance for lumber. The longstanding Canada-US trade dispute over softwood lumber continues, with tariffs raised to 14.54% in 2024, prompting Canada to file legal challenges. Further increases are expected to be implemented in 2025. The industry is grappling with the impacts of severe wildfires that hinder mill operations and access to timber resources, further exacerbating economic difficulties. As a result, over the past five years, revenue has fallen at an estimated annualized rate of 4.0% to $18.8 billion through the end of 2025, with low growth of 1.6% forecast for the current year. Future performance will depend on the US and Canadian housing markets, which are facing challenges relating to home affordability. Tariffs from the ongoing softwood lumber dispute between the US and Canada will continue to affect industry sawmills, prompting companies to adapt by improving efficiency or relocating facilities. Market conditions are pushing major lumber players to consolidate operations, with some acquiring mills in the US to bypass tariffs. Natural threats like wildfires and wood-boring insects pose ongoing risks to log supplies essential for sawmill operations. Over the next five years, industry revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.7% to $20.5 billion through the end of 2030.

Furniture, Carpet and Lighting Wholesaling revenue is expected to contract at a compound annual rate of 1.3% over the five years through 2025-26, reaching £5.7 billion. The industry has faced significant challenges due to a tough economic environment, marked by high inflation, peaking at 11.1% in October 2022, high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis that has significantly dampened consumers’ discretionary spending, limiting demand for largely non-essential products like furniture. These challenges have been compounded by a slowing housing market, where falling housing transactions and renovations reduced demand for products like flooring. Elevated trade costs due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a volatile pound elevated purchase costs, with wholesalers reliant on sourcing from overseas markets with cheaper production costs. Demand from retailers is picking up, boosting the industry. As inflationary pressures and interest rates ease, consumers are beginning to spend more on discretionary items, boosting industry sales. A resurgent housing market is driving further revenue growth as people increasingly demand furniture, lighting and flooring for their homes. Increased sales, alongside prioritising efficiency gains, have led to profit ticking up to 8.2% in the current year despite lingering purchase and wage cost challenges. Despite the recovery, growth remains dampened due to lingering cost pressures and vulnerable consumer demand, with confidence dwindling as geopolitical tensions ramp up. Overall, industry revenue is projected to climb by 0.2% in 2025-26, indicating a cautious recovery under strained conditions. Industry revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.3% to £6 billion over the five years through 2030-31. Positive GDP growth projections will boost discretionary purchasing, benefitting industry sales. Falling interest rates are likely to encourage UK consumers to move house or undertake home renovations, directly boosting demand for furniture, carpets and lighting. This is further supported by the government's plans to build 1.5 million homes by 2030. However, geopolitical tensions have led to an escalating trade war between the US and China, resulting in tariffs. If Chinese manufacturers raise their prices to offset lost demand from US markets, industry wholesalers may face challenges due to reliance on overseas sourcing. As a result, manufacturers may shift more sourcing to local UK producers, raising purchase costs but capitalising on the growing demand for locally sourced items to expand their reach.

In the first quarter of 2025, the value of exports from the United Kingdom amounted to approximately 227 billion British pounds, while imports to the country amounted to around 238 billion pounds, resulting in a trade deficit of around 10.6 billion pounds in this quarter. During this time period, the value of UK exports was highest in the fourth quarter of 2022, with the value of imports peaking in the third quarter of 2022. The UK's main trade partners Despite the UK leaving the EU in 2020 following the Brexit referendum of 2016, Europe remains the main destination for UK exports, with almost half of UK exports heading there in 2023. During the same year, just over 60 percent of imports came from European countries, compared with around 17.9 percent from countries in Asia, and 11.8 percent from the Americas. In terms of individual countries, the United States was the UK's leading export partner for both goods and services from the UK, while Germany was the main source of UK goods imports, and the U.S. for service imports. It is as yet unclear how the return of Donald Trump to the White House will impact UK/US trade relations, should the President follow through with threats made on the campaign trail to increase trade tariffs. Brexit rethink under Starmer? Although generally more pro-European than the previous government, the new Labour government, led by Keir Starmer, does not plan to rejoin the European Union, or the Single Market. Public opinion, while gradually turning against Brexit recently, has not coalesced around a particular trading relationship. In late 2023, a survey indicated that while 31 percent of British adults wanted to rejoin the EU, a further 30 percent wanted to simply improve relations with the EU, instead of rejoining. Just 11 percent of respondents wanted to join the single market but not the EU, while 10 percent were happy with the relationship as it was. At the start of 2025, after several months in office, the new government has not signalled any major change in direction regarding on this, but has broadly signalled it wants a better relationship with the EU.

The Hardware Manufacturing industry in Canada has been defined by volatile trade and downstream markets over the past five years. Companies in the Household Furniture Manufacturing and Car and Automobile Manufacturing industries in Canada, as well as construction markets and consumers, purchase hardware products manufactured by this industry. A strong housing market, driven by low interest rates due to the pandemic, supported the industry in 2020 and 2021, but declines in residential construction late in the period hurt demand for industry goods. Still, overall growth in the number of housing starts has staved off sharper declines amid economic uncertainty. Revenue is forecast to fall at a CAGR of 3.0% to $2.1 billion through the end of 2024, with a forecast rise of 2.6% during the current year as spending begins to recover. A major threat to this industry is the strong share of domestic demand that is satisfied by imports. Import penetration from countries with lower wages and production costs, has contributed to the strong competition faced by operators. Many companies transferred production from Canada to low labor cost countries like China and Mexico. Import competition has led to plant closures and consolidation, as some domestic operators have been unable to compete with less expensive imports. Despite the appreciation of the Canadian dollar over the past five years, imports were hindered, supporting industry growth. Companies are estimated to have maintained acceptable operating profit levels by effectively managing costs. The industry is forecast to resume growth over the next five years, with exports aided by a weaker Canadian dollar. Construction markets both domestically and in the US are expected to stabilize as the economy adjusts to lower interest rates. Consequently, revenue is expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.1% to $2.2 billion through the end of 2029.

Lumber wholesalers distribute a wide range of lumber, plywood, millwork and wood panel products to contractors, home improvement stores, hardware stores and other miscellaneous buyers, like government agencies, businesses for end use, consumers and farms. The industry has faced severe volatility through most of the current period as a result of the pandemic, massive supply chain disruptions and surging interest rates. In particular, higher rates offset growth realized at the start of the pandemic from torrid housing starts and home improvement markets, leading to five-year declines in the industry. Overall, revenue has faltered at an expected CAGR of 1.1% to $150.7 billion through the current period, despite a 1.3% jump in 2025, where profit reached 4.3%. Supply chain disruptions have also had an outsized impact on the industry's performance. In particular, major lumber shortages caused prices to skyrocket more than 36.0% in 2021. Wholesalers faced shrinking inventories and heightened demand from housing markets, with demand overwhelming availability. Companies were able to heavily raise prices, reaping 14.0% growth in the year. As prices ebbed and construction markets cooled, revenue dropped significantly, erasing gains from the start of the current period. In general, the cyclical nature of construction markets contributes to major boom-or-bust cycles. Lumber wholesalers will continue to contend with uncertainty through the outlook period. While interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 point toward healthier construction markets in the near future, tariffs may likely create economic uncertainty. Additionally, trade policies may introduce new supply chain complexities, raising lumber prices and potentially encouraging contractors to adopt alternative materials in home building. Additionally, companies will start to prioritize cost-saving technology and systems, like robotics and inventory management systems, improving connectivity with buyers and suppliers while reducing labor reliance. Wholesalers will also need to effectively manage inventories, ensuring products meet sustainability standards to attract and retain buyers. Overall, revenue will rebound at an expected CAGR of 2.0% to $166.7 billion through the outlook period, where profit will reach 4.4%.