Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Multi-Family Real Estate Apartment Price Index, Level (BOGZ1FL075035403A) from 1985 to 2024 about multifamily, real estate, family, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

House prices grew year-on-year in most states in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2024. The District of Columbia was the only exception, with a decline of ***** percent. The annual appreciation for single-family housing in the U.S. was **** percent, while in Hawaii—the state where homes appreciated the most—the increase exceeded ** percent. How have home prices developed in recent years? House price growth in the U.S. has been going strong for years. In 2024, the median sales price of a single-family home exceeded ******* U.S. dollars, up from ******* U.S. dollars five years ago. One of the factors driving house prices was the cost of credit. The record-low federal funds effective rate allowed mortgage lenders to set mortgage interest rates as low as *** percent. With interest rates on the rise, home buying has also slowed, causing fluctuations in house prices. Why are house prices growing? Many markets in the U.S. are overheated because supply has not been able to keep up with demand. How many homes enter the housing market depends on the construction output, whereas the availability of existing homes for purchase depends on many other factors, such as the willingness of owners to sell. Furthermore, growing investor appetite in the housing sector means that prospective homebuyers have some extra competition to worry about. In certain metros, for example, the share of homes bought by investors exceeded ** percent in 2024.

The US residential real estate market, a cornerstone of the American economy, is projected to experience steady growth over the next decade. While the provided CAGR of 2.04% is a modest figure, it reflects a market maturing after a period of significant expansion. This sustained growth is driven by several key factors. Firstly, population growth and urbanization continue to fuel demand for housing, particularly in densely populated areas and emerging suburban markets. Secondly, low interest rates (historically, though this can fluctuate) have made mortgages more accessible, stimulating buyer activity. Thirdly, a robust construction sector, though facing challenges in material costs and labor shortages, is gradually increasing the housing supply, mitigating some of the upward pressure on prices. However, challenges remain. Rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes pose a risk to affordability, potentially dampening demand. Furthermore, the ongoing evolution of remote work is reshaping residential preferences, with a shift toward larger homes in suburban or exurban locations. This trend impacts the relative demand for various property types, potentially increasing the appeal of landed houses and villas compared to apartments and condominiums in certain regions. The segmentation of the market into apartments/condominiums and landed houses/villas provides crucial insights into consumer preferences and investment strategies. High-density urban areas will continue to see strong demand for apartments and condos, while suburban and rural areas are likely to experience a greater increase in landed property sales. Major players like Simon Property Group, Mill Creek Residential, and others are strategically adapting to these trends, focusing on both development and management across various property types and geographic locations. Analyzing regional data within the US (e.g., comparing growth in the Northeast versus the Southwest) will highlight market nuances and potential investment opportunities. While the global data provided is valuable for understanding broader market forces, focusing the analysis on the US market allows for a more granular understanding of the specific drivers, trends, and challenges within this significant segment of the real estate sector. The forecast period (2025-2033) suggests continued, albeit measured, expansion. Recent developments include: May 2022: Resource REIT Inc. completed the sale of all of its outstanding shares of common stock to Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust Inc. for USD 14.75 per share in an all-cash deal valued at USD 3.7 billion, including the assumption of the REIT's debt., February 2022: The largest owner of commercial real estate in the world and private equity company Blackstone is growing its portfolio of residential rentals and commercial properties in the United States. The company revealed that it would shell out about USD 6 billion to buy Preferred Apartment Communities, an Atlanta-based real estate investment trust that owns 44 multifamily communities and roughly 12,000 homes in the Southeast, mostly in Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, North Carolina, and the Florida cities of Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa.. Key drivers for this market are: Investment Plan Towards Urban Rail Development. Potential restraints include: Italy’s Fragmented Approach to Tenders. Notable trends are: Existing Home Sales Witnessing Strong Growth.

Soaring interest rates are filtering through to the housing market, with lenders raising mortgage rates and pulling deals. What effect is this having on the housing market?

In the United States, interest rates for all mortgage types started to increase in 2021. This was due to the Federal Reserve introducing a series of hikes in the federal funds rate to contain the rising inflation. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the 30-year fixed rate rose slightly, to **** percent. Despite the increase, the rate remained below the peak of **** percent in the same quarter a year ago. Why have U.S. home sales decreased? Cheaper mortgages normally encourage consumers to buy homes, while higher borrowing costs have the opposite effect. As interest rates increased in 2022, the number of existing homes sold plummeted. Soaring house prices over the past 10 years have further affected housing affordability. Between 2013 and 2023, the median price of an existing single-family home risen by about ** percent. On the other hand, the median weekly earnings have risen much slower. Comparing mortgage terms and rates Between 2008 and 2023, the average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States stood between **** and **** percent. Over the same period, a 30-year mortgage term averaged a fixed-rate of between **** and **** percent. Rates on 15-year loan terms are lower to encourage a quicker repayment, which helps to improve a homeowner’s equity.

Graph and download economic data for Average Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (ASPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q1 2025 about sales, housing, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Owner-Occupied Real Estate CoreLogic National Seasonally Adjusted by FRB Staff (SA), Level (BOGZ1FL075035243A) from 1975 to 2024 about real estate, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

House Price Index YoY in the United States decreased to 3 percent in April from 3.90 percent in March of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States FHFA House Price Index YoY.

Mortgage interest rates in Czechia have experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years, reaching a peak of nearly six percent in December 2022 before gradually declining. As of March 2025, the interest rate on new mortgages in the country amounted to 4.68 percent, showing a slight decrease from the previous month. This trend in mortgage rates has occurred alongside substantial increases in housing prices. Housing market dynamics The changes in mortgage rates have gone hand in hand with notable shifts in the Czech housing market. Despite the high-interest rates, new mortgage lending reached over 18 million Czech koruna in December 2024, marking a significant increase from the same month in the previous year. This growth in lending has continued despite the steady rise in housing prices, with the house price index reaching 219.9 in the third quarter of 2024. This marks a significant increase from the 2015 baseline, reflecting the ongoing upward trend. The average purchase price per square meter for family houses increasing across the country. In 2023, Prague recorded the highest average price at 111,087 Czech koruna per square meter. Construction sector trends The construction sector in Czechia has shown its response to these market conditions. The index of multi-dwelling building construction fluctuated recently, with 2024 showing a slight decrease to 83.8 index points compared to the previous year. However, regarding non-residential buildings, the construction has been continuously growing since 2018 with hotels and industrial buildings accounting for the majority of new non-residential constructions.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Multi-Family Real Estate Apartment Price Index, Level (BOGZ1FL075035403Q) from Q4 1985 to Q1 2025 about multifamily, real estate, family, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Owner-Occupied Real Estate Zillow ZHVI Index (SA), Level (BOGZ1FL075035253A) from 1975 to 2024 about owner-occupied, real estate, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Interest Rates, High Prices, and Inventory Shortage to Slow Down Housing Market

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Global house prices experienced a significant shift in 2022, with advanced economies seeing a notable decline after a prolonged period of growth. The real house price index (adjusted for inflation) for advanced economies peaked at nearly *** index points in early 2022 before falling to around ****** points by the fourth quarter of 2024. This represents a reversal of the upward trend that had characterized the housing market for roughly a decade. Conversely, real house prices in emerging economies resumed growing, after a brief correction in the second half of 2022. What is behind the slowdown? Inflation and slow economic growth have been the primary drivers for the cooling of the housing market. Secondly, the growing gap between incomes and house prices since 2012 has decreased the affordability of homeownership. Last but not least, homebuyers in 2024 faced dramatically higher mortgage interest rates, further contributing to worsening sentiment and declining transactions. Some markets continue to grow While many countries witnessed a deceleration in house price growth in 2022, some markets continued to see substantial increases. Turkey, in particular, stood out with a nominal increase in house prices of over ** percent in the first quarter of 2024. Other countries that recorded a two-digit growth include Russia and the United Arab Emirates. When accounting for inflation, the three countries with the fastest growing residential prices in early 2024 were the United Arab Emirates, Poland, and Bulgaria.

The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost ************* after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to ***********. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Mortgage interest rates in Europe soared in 2022 and remained elevated in the following two years. In many countries, this resulted in mortgage interest rates across the region more than doubling. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the average mortgage interest rate in the UK stood at 4.5 percent. Belgium had the lowest rate, at 2.89 percent, while Poland had the highest, at 7.5 percent. Why did mortgage interest rates increase? Mortgage rates have risen as a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate increase. The ECB increased its interest rates to tackle inflation. As inflation calms, the ECB is expected to cut rates, which allows mortgage lenders to reduce mortgage interest rates. What is the impact of interest rates on home buying? Lower interest rates make taking out a housing loan more affordable, and thus, encourage home buying. That can be seen in many countries across Europe: In France, the number of residential properties sold rose in the years leading up to 2021, and fell as interest rates increased. The number of houses sold in the UK followed a similar trend.

Exploiting variation in the timing of resets of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), we find that a sizable decline in mortgage payments (up to 50 percent) induces a significant increase in car purchases (up to 35 percent). This effect is attenuated by voluntary deleveraging. Borrowers with lower incomes and housing wealth have significantly higher marginal propensity to consume. Areas with a larger share of ARMs were more responsive to lower interest rates and saw a relative decline in defaults and an increase in house prices, car purchases, and employment. Household balance sheets and mortgage contract rigidity are important for monetary policy pass-through.

As of January 2025, the average monthly interest rate for house loans in Indonesia was 6.87 percent. The country's house loan interest rate has gradually decreased over the past few years, with a drop of around 1.4 percent compared to the rate in January 2021. House financing and ownership in Indonesia With mortgage interest rates anticipated to remain lower compared to the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level, Indonesia's residential property market is expected to continue growing. Indonesian banks provided mortgage loans exceeding 730 trillion Indonesian as of January 2025, catering to the majority of Indonesians who rely on loans to finance their homeownership needs. Notably, house ownership rates in Indonesian rural areas are significantly higher compared to urban areas. Amid its soaring land and house prices, Jakarta struggled with the lowest house ownership rate of any province in Indonesia. Housing prices Despite its significant housing backlog, which underscores the need for affordable housing, Indonesia's residential property price index has steadily increased in recent years. At the end of 2024, cities like Batam, Pontianak, Pekanbaru, and Samarinda saw the highest increases in property prices. This trend is not limited to primary properties, as the resale price index of second-hand houses has also shown consistent growth over the past few years.

In May 29, 2019, FHFA published its final Monthly Interest Rate Survey (MIRS), due to dwindling participation by financial institutions. MIRS had provided information on a monthly basis on interest rates, loan terms, and house prices by property type (all, new, previously occupied); by loan type (fixed- or adjustable-rate), and by lender type (savings associations, mortgage companies, commercial banks and savings banks); as well as information on 15-year and 30-year, fixed-rate loans. Additionally, MIRS provided quarterly information on conventional loans by major metropolitan area and by Federal Home Loan Bank district, and was used to compile FHFA’s monthly adjustable-rate mortgage index entitled the “National Average Contract Mortgage Rate for the Purchase of Previously Occupied Homes by Combined Lenders,” also known as the ARM Index.

Based on panel error correction models for a sample of up to 21 countries this paper analyses the macroeconomic determinants of house prices and rents. In accordance with the existing literature I find significantly positive effects of per capita income and bank lending on house prices, whereas the housing stock per capita and interest rates have negative effects. For rents the results are somewhat more remarkable, indicating that both the housing stock and interest rates have a negative effect. While contradicting conventional economic theory the latter finding might be explained by real estate investors exploiting their pricing power with varying degree depending on the level of real interest rates. Moreover, the estimated impact of interest rates on both house prices and rents varies with structural housing market characteristics. For instance, while interest rates have a more pronounced effect on house prices in countries with more developed mortgage markets, the same does not hold for the effect of interest rates on rents.

House price growth slowed down in many countries worldwide in 2022 compared to the year before. Conversely, in Turkey, Vietnam, Russia, Sri Lanka, Georgia, and Mexico, house prices continued to grow. Adjusted for inflation, the annual house price increase in Turkey measured a staggering 63 percent. In the United States, on the other hand, price growth felt from 10.5 percent to 1.2 percent. In 2022, mortgage interest rates, increased overall in response to rising inflation and economic instability.