Each month we publish independent forecasts of key economic and fiscal indicators for the UK economy. Forecasts before 2010 are hosted by The National Archives.
We began publishing comparisons of independent forecasts in 1986. The first database brings together selected variables from those publications, averaged across forecasters. It includes series for Gross Domestic Product, the Consumer Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments, Public Sector Net Borrowing and the Claimant Count. Our second database contains time series of independent forecasts for GDP growth, private consumption, government consumption, fixed investment, domestic demand and net trade, for 26 forecasters with at least 10 years’ worth of submissions since 2010.
We’d welcome feedback on how you find the database and any extra information that you’d like to see included. Email your comments to Carter.Adams@hmtreasury.gov.uk.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Annual and quarterly data for UK gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, in chained volume measures and current market prices.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom was worth 3643.83 billion US dollars in 2024, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of the United Kingdom represents 3.43 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.70 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheaval for both businesses and individuals. Recognizing the magnitude of these challenges, academic literature has directed its attention toward conducting immediate research in this crucial area. This study sets out to investigate key economic factors that have influenced various sectors of the UK economy and have broader economic implications within the context of Brexit and COVID-19. The factors under scrutiny include the unemployment rate, GDP index, earnings, and trade. To accomplish this, a range of data analysis tools and techniques were employed, including the Box-Jenkins method, neural network modeling, Google Trend analysis, and Twitter-sentiment analysis. The analysis encompassed different periods: pre-Brexit (2011-2016), Brexit (2016-2020), the COVID-19 period, and post-Brexit (2020-2021). The findings of the analysis offer intriguing insights spanning the past decade. For instance, the unemployment rate displayed a downward trend until 2020 but experienced a spike in 2021, persisting for a six-month period. Meanwhile, total earnings per week exhibited a gradual increase over time, and the GDP index demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2020 but declined during the COVID-19 period. Notably, trade experienced the most significant decline following both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the impact of these events exhibited variations across the UK’s four regions and twelve industries. Wales and Northern Ireland emerged as the regions most affected by Brexit and COVID-19, with industries such as accommodation, construction, and wholesale trade particularly impacted in terms of earnings and employment levels. Conversely, industries such as finance, science, and health demonstrated an increased contribution to the UK’s total GDP in the post-Brexit period, indicating some positive outcomes. It is worth highlighting that the impact of these economic factors was more pronounced on men than on women. Among all the variables analyzed, trade suffered the most severe consequences in the UK. By early 2021, the macroeconomic situation in the country was characterized by a simple dynamic: economic demand rebounded at a faster pace than supply, leading to shortages, bottlenecks, and inflation. The findings of this research carry significant value for the UK government and businesses, empowering them to adapt and innovate based on forecasts to navigate the challenges posed by Brexit and COVID-19. By doing so, they can promote long-term economic growth and effectively address the disruptions caused by these interrelated issues.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 1.30 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Monthly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) containing constant price gross value added (GVA) data for the UK.
This Annual GVA series is our most accurate estimate of Digital Sector GVA. These Economic Estimates are Accredited Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the contribution of the Digital Sector and its associated subsectors to the UK, measured by GVA (gross value added).
This is the first release of provisional annual estimates for 2023, and Blue Book 2024 inclusive revisions to 2019 to 2022 annual estimates. The provisional Annual GVA estimates for 2023 for the Digital Sector will be revised in our next release, upon updates to underlying ABS data, and further revised in the following statistical release to include Blue Book 2025 revisions. Our next release is planned to include a full analytical report providing additional analysis on our produced GVA estimates.
This release includes a methodology update to the deflators used to remove the effects of inflation in our chained volume measure estimates. A summary of the revisions to 2019 to 2022 estimates as part of this release can be found in the accompanying revisions report.
This is a continuation of the Digital Sector Economic Estimates: Annual GVA release series, previously produced by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS). Responsibility for Digital and Telecommunications policy now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT).
Findings in this release are calculated based on the published Office for National Statistics (ONS) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/supplyandusetables/datasets/supplyanduseofproductsandindustrygvaukexperimental" class="govuk-link">Supply and Use Tables, ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/ukgdpolowlevelaggregates" class="govuk-link">Gross Domestic Product (GDP) low-level aggregates and the ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/methodologies/annualbusinesssurveyabs" class="govuk-link">Annual Business Survey (ABS).
The Supply and Use Tables (SUT) report balanced GVA at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code level up to 2022. SUT <abbr title="Gross V
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Zew Economic Sentiment Index in the United Kingdom increased to 60.40 in March from 35.80 in February of 2021. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Zew Economic Sentiment Index - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom increased to -18 points in June from -20 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Consumer Confidence - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Construction output in the United Kingdom increased 1.20 percent in May of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Construction Output - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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The United Kingdom recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 95.90 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2024. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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The Gross Domestic Product per capita in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 52517.98 US dollars in 2024, when adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). The GDP per Capita, in the United Kingdom, when adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity is equivalent to 296 percent of the world's average. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP per capita PPP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 3.40 percent in May from 3.50 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Money Supply M2 in the United Kingdom decreased to 3113598 GBP Million in May from 3117847 GBP Million in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Data underlying comparisons of UK productivity against that of the remaining G7 countries.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Money Supply M0 in the United Kingdom increased to 99516 GBP Million in May from 99145 GBP Million in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Money Supply M0 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Composite Leading Indicator in the United Kingdom increased to 101.16 points in June from 101.10 points in May of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Composite Leading Indicator.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Monthly GDP YoY in the United Kingdom decreased to 0.70 percent in May from 1.10 percent in April of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Monthly GDP YoY.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Private Investment in the United Kingdom increased to 3.90 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from -1.90 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Business Investment- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Each month we publish independent forecasts of key economic and fiscal indicators for the UK economy. Forecasts before 2010 are hosted by The National Archives.
We began publishing comparisons of independent forecasts in 1986. The first database brings together selected variables from those publications, averaged across forecasters. It includes series for Gross Domestic Product, the Consumer Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments, Public Sector Net Borrowing and the Claimant Count. Our second database contains time series of independent forecasts for GDP growth, private consumption, government consumption, fixed investment, domestic demand and net trade, for 26 forecasters with at least 10 years’ worth of submissions since 2010.
We’d welcome feedback on how you find the database and any extra information that you’d like to see included. Email your comments to Carter.Adams@hmtreasury.gov.uk.