The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

****Dataset Overview**** This dataset contains historical macroeconomic data, featuring key economic indicators in the United States. It includes important metrics such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Money Supply (M2), and more. The dataset spans from 1993 to the present and includes monthly data on various economic indicators, processed to show their rate of change (either percentage or absolute difference, depending on the indicator).

provenance

The data in this dataset is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED provides access to a wide range of economic data, including key macroeconomic indicators for the United States. My work involved calculating the rate of change (ROC) for each indicator and reorganizing the data into a more usable format for analysis. For more information and access to the full database, visit FRED's website.

Purpose and Use for the Kaggle Community:

This dataset is a valuable resource for data scientists, economists, and analysts interested in understanding macroeconomic trends, performing time series analysis, or building predictive models. With the rate of change included, users can quickly assess the growth or contraction in these indicators month-over-month. This dataset can be used for:

• Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA): Understanding historical economic trends. -Time Series Forecasting: Building models to predict future economic conditions. -Macroeconomic Analysis: Analyzing the relationship between various economic indicators. -Machine Learning Projects: Using the data as features to predict financial or economic outcomes. -By utilizing this dataset, users can perform in-depth analysis on the impact of macroeconomic changes, compare the historical performance of various indicators, and experiment with different time series forecasting techniques.

****Column Descriptions****

Year: The year of the observation.

Month: The month of the observation (1-12).

Industrial Production: Monthly data on the total output of US factories, mines, and utilities.

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, indicating future production activity.

Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): A measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.

Retail Sales: The total receipts of retail stores, indicating consumer spending and economic activity.

Producer Price Index: Measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): A measure of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, used in calculating inflation.

National Home Price Index: A measure of changes in residential real estate prices across the country.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm: The number of nonfarm payroll employees, an important indicator of the labor market.

Labor Force Participation Rate: The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work.

Federal Funds Effective Rate: The interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight.

Building Permits: The number of building permits issued for residential and non-residential buildings, a leading indicator of construction activity.

Money Supply (M2): The total money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money.

Personal Income: The total income received by individuals from all sources, including wages, investments, and government transfers.

Trade Balance: The difference between a country's imports and exports, indicating the net trade flow.

Consumer Sentiment: The index reflecting consumer sentiment and expectations for the future economic outlook.

Consumer Confidence: A measure of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation and the economy.

Notes on Interest Rates Please note that for the Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS), the dataset includes the absolute change in basis points (bps), not the rate of change. This means that the dataset reflects the direct change in the interest rate rather than the percentage change month-over-month. The change is represented in basis points, where 1 basis point equals 0.01%.

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short-term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994-2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model-implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates, Discount Rate for United States (INTDSRUSM193N) from Jan 1950 to Aug 2021 about discount, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 20 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

An index that can be used to gauge broad financial conditions and assess how these conditions are related to future economic growth. The index is broadly consistent with how the FRB/US model generally relates key financial variables to economic activity. The index aggregates changes in seven financial variables: the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the triple-B corporate bond yield, the Dow Jones total stock market index, the Zillow house price index, and the nominal broad dollar index using weights implied by the FRB/US model and other models in use at the Federal Reserve Board. These models relate households' spending and businesses' investment decisions to changes in short- and long-term interest rates, house and equity prices, and the exchange value of the dollar, among other factors. These financial variables are weighted using impulse response coefficients (dynamic multipliers) that quantify the cumulative effects of unanticipated permanent changes in each financial variable on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the subsequent year. The resulting index is named Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G). One appealing feature of the FCI-G is that its movements can be used to measure whether financial conditions have tightened or loosened, to summarize how changes in financial conditions are associated with real GDP growth over the following year, or both.

Content

The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together.

How to Interpret the Index: The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress.

More information: For additional information on the STLFSI and its construction, see "Measuring Financial Market Stress" (https://files.stlouisfed.org/research/publications/es/10/ES1002.pdf) and the related appendix (https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/net/NETJan2010Appendix.pdf).

See this list (https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/st-louis-fed-financial-stress-index/stlfsi-key) of the components that are used to construct the STLFSI.

As of 07/15/2010 the Vanguard Financial Exchange-Traded Fund series has been replaced with the S&P 500 Financials Index. This change was made to facilitate a more timely and automated updating of the FSI. Switching from the Vanguard series to the S&P series produced no meaningful change in the index.

Copyright, 2016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1993-12-31

• Observation End : 2019-11-29

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Laura Lefurgey-Smith on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

The benchmark interest rate in Australia was last recorded at 3.85 percent. This dataset provides - Australia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

We use Bayesian methods to estimate changes in US post-war monetary policy in the Smets and Wouters model. We perform the estimations by allowing for a break in monetary policy at the time of Volcker's appointment as chairman. This enables us to capture changes in the monetary policy regime introduced by Volcker during the Volcker-Greenspan period. We find support for the assumption that monetary policy in the Volcker-Greenspan period performed optimally under commitment. Our estimation strategy allows us to estimate the preferences of the US Federal Reserve in the Volcker-Greenspan period, where the main objective of policy appears to be inflation, followed by interest rate stabilization, output growth and interest rate smoothing. We find that the Great Moderation of output growth is explained by a combination of two factors: the decrease in the volatility of the structural shocks and the improved monetary policy conduct. Inflation Stabilization, however, is mainly due to the change in monetary policy that took place at the beginning of Volcker's mandate.

The yield curve, also called the term structure of interest rates, refers to the relationship between the remaining time-to-maturity of debt securities and the yield on those securities. Yield curves have many practical uses, including pricing of various fixed-income securities, and are closely watched by market participants and policymakers alike for potential clues about the markets perception of the path of the policy rate and the macroeconomic outlook. This page provides daily estimated real yield curve parameters, smoothed yields on hypothetical TIPS, and implied inflation compensation, from 1999 to the present. Because this is a staff research product and not an official statistical release, it is subject to delay, revision, or methodological changes without advance notice.

United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 2 Year data was reported at 3.054 % pa in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.939 % pa for Sep 2018. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 2 Year data is updated monthly, averaging 1.806 % pa from Jul 2000 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 220 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.119 % pa in Jul 2000 and a record low of 0.374 % pa in Apr 2013. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 2 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M014: Interest Rate: Swaps Rates.

The benchmark interest rate in China was last recorded at 3 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - China Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 1 Year data was reported at 2.917 % pa in Nov 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.850 % pa for Oct 2018. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 1 Year data is updated monthly, averaging 1.409 % pa from Jul 2000 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 221 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.056 % pa in Jul 2000 and a record low of 0.260 % pa in May 2014. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 1 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M014: Interest Rate: Swaps Rates.

We study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity separately identifying the effects of a conventional change in the fed funds rate from the policy of forward guidance. We use a structural VAR identified using external instruments from futures market data. The response of output to a fed funds rate shock is found to be consistent with typical monetary VAR analyses. However, the effect of a forward guidance shock that increases long-term interest rates has an expansionary effect on output. This counterintuitive response is shown to be tied to the asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public.

Analysis of ‘USA Key Economic Indicators’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/calven22/usa-key-macroeconomic-indicators on 28 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

Context

Domino’s Pizza, like many other restaurant chains, is getting pinched by higher food costs. The company’s chief executive, Richard Allison, anticipates “unprecedented increases” in the company’s food costs, which could jump by 8-10%. He said that is three to four times what the pizza chain would normally expect in a year.

This leads to the paramount issue of inflation which affects every aspects of the economy, from consumer spending, business investment and employment rates to government programs, tax policies, and interest rates. The recent release of consumer inflation data showed prices rose at the fastest pace since 1982. Inflation forecasting is key in the conduct of monetary policy and can be used in many other ways such as preserving asset values. This dataset is a consolidated macroeconomic official statistics from 1981 to 2021, containing data available in month and quarterly format.

Content

The Core Consumer Price Index (ccpi) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy due to their volatility. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a often used to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

Do note there are some null values in the dataset.

Acknowledgements

All data belongs to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis official release, and are retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Inspiration

What are some noticeable patterns or seasonality of the economy? What are the current trends of the economy? Which indicators has an effect on Core CPI or vice-versa based on predictive power or influence?

Quarterly data and monthly data can be merged with forward-fill or interpolation methods.

What is the forecast of Core CPI in 2022?

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 30 Year data was reported at 3.241 % pa in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.082 % pa for Sep 2018. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 30 Year data is updated monthly, averaging 4.268 % pa from Jul 2000 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 220 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.199 % pa in Jul 2000 and a record low of 1.751 % pa in Aug 2016. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 30 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M014: Interest Rate: Swaps Rates.

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.50 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.