Analysis of ‘USA Key Economic Indicators’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/calven22/usa-key-macroeconomic-indicators on 28 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

Context

Domino’s Pizza, like many other restaurant chains, is getting pinched by higher food costs. The company’s chief executive, Richard Allison, anticipates “unprecedented increases” in the company’s food costs, which could jump by 8-10%. He said that is three to four times what the pizza chain would normally expect in a year.

This leads to the paramount issue of inflation which affects every aspects of the economy, from consumer spending, business investment and employment rates to government programs, tax policies, and interest rates. The recent release of consumer inflation data showed prices rose at the fastest pace since 1982. Inflation forecasting is key in the conduct of monetary policy and can be used in many other ways such as preserving asset values. This dataset is a consolidated macroeconomic official statistics from 1981 to 2021, containing data available in month and quarterly format.

Content

The Core Consumer Price Index (ccpi) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy due to their volatility. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a often used to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

Do note there are some null values in the dataset.

Acknowledgements

All data belongs to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis official release, and are retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Inspiration

What are some noticeable patterns or seasonality of the economy? What are the current trends of the economy? Which indicators has an effect on Core CPI or vice-versa based on predictive power or influence?

Quarterly data and monthly data can be merged with forward-fill or interpolation methods.

What is the forecast of Core CPI in 2022?

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Interest rates and inflation are two critical economic indicators that profoundly influence each other and impact broader economic health. Typically, central banks use interest rates as a primary monetary policy tool to control inflation. When inflation rises above target levels, central banks may increase interest rates to reduce spending and borrowing, thereby stabilizing prices. Conversely, lowering interest rates usually stimulates economic activity but risks driving inflation higher. Understanding and predicting the relationship between these indicators can help policymakers, economists, investors, and businesses anticipate economic conditions, make informed decisions, and develop strategies for risk management. This dataset provides historical yearly data on interest rates and corresponding inflation levels, offering a valuable resource to explore, analyze, and model this fundamental economic relationship.

The benchmark interest rate in Brazil was last recorded at 14.75 percent. This dataset provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Same data was reported at 22.500 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 23.300 % for Mar 2025. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Same data is updated monthly, averaging 29.700 % from Jun 1987 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 455 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 43.700 % in Dec 1997 and a record low of 13.600 % in Mar 1989. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Same data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by The Conference Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H051: Consumer Confidence Index: Interest Rate Expectation. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Description:

This dataset provides key economic indicators from various countries between 2010 and 2023. The dataset includes monthly data on inflation rates, GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, interest rates, and stock market index values. The data has been sourced from reputable global financial institutions and is suitable for economic analysis, machine learning models, and forecasting economic trends.

Data Sources:

The data has been generated to simulate real-world economic conditions, mimicking information from trusted sources like: - World Bank for GDP growth and inflation data - International Monetary Fund (IMF) for macroeconomic data - OECD for labor market statistics - National Stock Exchanges for stock market index values

Columns:

1. Date: The specific date (in Year/Month/Day format) representing when the data was collected.
2. Country: The country the data pertains to (e.g., USA, Germany, Japan).
3. Inflation Rate (%): The rate of inflation for that country, showing how fast prices for goods and services are increasing.
4. GDP Growth Rate (%): The percentage growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), indicating economic expansion or contraction.
5. Unemployment Rate (%): The percentage of the working-age population that is unemployed.
6. Interest Rate (%): The central bank's interest rate, used to control inflation and influence the economy.
7. Stock Index Value: The value of the country’s main stock market index, reflecting the performance of the stock market.

Potential Uses: - Economic Analysis: Researchers and analysts can use this dataset to study trends in inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, and other economic factors. - Machine Learning: This dataset can be used to train models for predicting economic trends or market performance. Financial Forecasting: Investors and economists can leverage this data for forecasting market movements based on economic conditions. - Comparative Studies: The dataset allows comparisons across countries and regions, offering insights into global economic performance.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 20 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Higher data was reported at 54.600 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 52.600 % for Feb 2025. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Higher data is updated monthly, averaging 55.200 % from Jun 1987 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 454 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 79.900 % in Mar 1989 and a record low of 23.400 % in Oct 2001. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Higher data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by The Conference Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H044: Consumer Confidence Index: Interest Rate Expectation. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

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When examining the intricate relationship between economic conditions and purchasing decisions, the utilization of practice datasets can offer invaluable insights. This particular artificial dataset comprises three main components: a dimension table of ten companies, a fact table documenting purchases from these companies, and a set of data points regarding economic conditions. These elements are meticulously designed to mimic real-world scenarios, enabling analysts to dissect and understand how fluctuations in the economy can influence the purchasing behavior of different types of companies.

The dimension table serves as the foundation, listing ten distinct companies, each potentially operating in varied sectors. This diversity allows for a comprehensive analysis across a spectrum of industries, highlighting sector-specific sensitivities to economic changes. The fact table of purchases acts as a historical record, offering detailed insights into the buying patterns of these companies over time. Analysts can observe trends, frequencies, and the magnitude of purchases, correlating them with the economic conditions presented in the third component of the dataset.

The economic conditions data is pivotal, as it encompasses a variety of indicators that can affect purchasing decisions. These may include inflation rates, interest rates, GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer confidence indices, among others. By examining the interplay between these economic indicators and the purchasing data, analysts can identify patterns and causations. For instance, an increase in interest rates might lead to a decrease in capital-intensive purchases by companies wary of higher borrowing costs.

Through this dataset, researchers can employ statistical models and data analysis techniques to uncover how economic fluctuations impact corporate purchasing decisions. The findings can offer valuable lessons for businesses in terms of budgeting, financial planning, and risk management. Companies can use these insights to make informed decisions, adjusting their purchasing strategies in anticipation of or in response to economic conditions. This proactive approach can help businesses maintain stability during economic downturns and capitalize on opportunities during favorable economic times.

Ultimately, this practice dataset not only aids in academic and educational pursuits but also serves as a practical tool for business analysts, economists, and corporate strategists seeking to better navigate the complex dynamics of the economy and its effects on corporate purchasing behaviors.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Using a two-step approach GMM, this study examines the short- and long-term effects of fiscal deficit on the economic growth of 42 Sub-Saharan African nations between 2011 and 2021. The World Development Index, the most reliable source, is where the panel data is taken from. Using the Levin-Lin-Chu and Hadri LM tests for unit root, it was determined that there is no risk of a random walk in the data. The study’s findings indicate that while the fiscal deficit has short-term, positive, and significant benefits on the economic growth of SSA countries, it has long-term, negative repercussions. According to the system GMM’s results, an increase in the fiscal deficit of SSA countries is linked to a short-term increase in economic growth of 0.036 percent, while an increase in the fiscal deficit of one percentage point is linked to a long-term decline in economic growth of SSA countries of 0.013 percent, holding all other factors constant. The study’s findings also showed that the budget deficit has a larger positive short-run coefficient than a negative long-run coefficient. The study also revealed that while real effective exchange rates and inflation short-term hinder economic growth, gross fixed capital creation and real interest rates are the primary drivers of economic expansion. Long-term economic growth in the SSA countries is also found to be positively and significantly impacted by gross fixed capital formation. According to the study, SSA nations should manage their fiscal deficits and, in the long run, provide more funds for gross fixed capital development.

Indonesia Banking Survey: Loan Interest Rate: Whole Year Estimation: in USD: Investment data was reported at 6.801 % in Sep 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 6.798 % for Jun 2024. Indonesia Banking Survey: Loan Interest Rate: Whole Year Estimation: in USD: Investment data is updated quarterly, averaging 6.310 % from Mar 2012 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 51 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.961 % in Sep 2023 and a record low of 4.454 % in Mar 2022. Indonesia Banking Survey: Loan Interest Rate: Whole Year Estimation: in USD: Investment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank Indonesia. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Business and Economic Survey – Table ID.SE003: Banking Survey: Interest Rate. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Historical 3-Month Treasury Bill Rates (2000-2023) Dataset

Track the Pulse of the Financial Market with Detailed T-Bill Data

Dataset Description

This dataset contains historical 3-month Treasury Bill rates, sourced from Yahoo Finance. The dataset spans from January 3, 2000, to December 31, 2023, and provides daily prices along with adjusted close prices and volumes. This data is crucial for financial analysts, economists, and researchers who are interested in interest rate trends and their impact on the economy.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Data Source
3. Dataset Structure
4. Data Collection and Processing
5. Usage and Applications
6. License
7. Acknowledgements

Introduction

Treasury Bills (T-Bills) are short-term government securities with maturities of one year or less. They are sold at a discount from their face value and do not pay interest before maturity. This dataset specifically focuses on the 3-month T-Bill rates, which are commonly used as a risk-free rate benchmark in various financial models and analyses.

The 3-month T-Bill rate is considered a reliable indicator of short-term interest rates and economic conditions. It is widely used in the valuation of financial instruments, risk management, and macroeconomic analysis.

Data Source

The data was sourced from Yahoo Finance. The Ticker symbol used for the 3-month Treasury Bill rates is ^IRX.

Dataset Structure

The dataset is provided in CSV format with the following columns:

• Date: The date of the recorded interest rate (in YYYY-MM-DD format).
• Open: The opening price of the 3-month T-Bill rate on the given date.
• High: The highest price of the 3-month T-Bill rate on the given date.
• Low: The lowest price of the 3-month T-Bill rate on the given date.
• Close: The closing price of the 3-month T-Bill rate on the given date.
• Adj Close: The adjusted close price for the 3-month T-Bill rate, adjusted for any corporate actions.
• Volume: The trading volume of the 3-month T-Bill rate on the given date (although typically 0 for T-Bills).

Example:

Data Collection and Processing

The data was collected from Yahoo Finance using the Python yfinance library. The following steps were performed to process the data:

1. Data Retrieval: Historical data was fetched for the 3-month Treasury Bill using the yfinance API.
2. Data Cleaning: Missing values were dropped to ensure data consistency.
3. Conversion: The adjusted close prices were used for analysis as they account for any corporate actions.

Usage and Applications

This dataset can be used for various financial analyses and modeling, including but not limited to:

• Interest Rate Modeling: Use the dataset to model interest rate behaviors using stochastic models such as the Vasicek model, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, etc.
• Risk Management: Assess the risk-free rate for evaluating investment performance and calculating risk premiums.
• Econometric Analysis: Conduct time series analysis to study trends, seasonality, and economic cycles.
• Financial Education: Serve as a resource for educational purposes in finance and economics courses.
• Macroeconomic Research: Analyze the relationship between short-term interest rates and macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and employment rates.

License

This dataset is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. You are free to use, modify, and distribute the data, provided proper attribution is given.

Acknowledgements

Special thanks to Yahoo Finance for providing the historical data and the Python community for the yfinance library, which facilitated data retrieval and processing.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 8.50 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in South Korea was last recorded at 2.50 percent. This dataset provides - South Korea Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Egypt EG: Real Interest Rate data was reported at -3.870 % pa in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.922 % pa for 2016. Egypt EG: Real Interest Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 2.945 % pa from Dec 1976 (Median) to 2017, with 41 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 13.650 % pa in 1981 and a record low of -11.289 % pa in 1987. Egypt EG: Real Interest Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Egypt – Table EG.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as measured by the GDP deflator. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files using World Bank data on the GDP deflator.; ;

Egypt EG: Interest Rate Spread data was reported at 6.083 % pa in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 5.742 % pa for 2016. Egypt EG: Interest Rate Spread data is updated yearly, averaging 5.000 % pa from Dec 1976 (Median) to 2017, with 41 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.328 % pa in 1992 and a record low of 3.654 % pa in 1998. Egypt EG: Interest Rate Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Egypt – Table EG.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Interest rate spread is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the interest rate paid by commercial or similar banks for demand, time, or savings deposits. The terms and conditions attached to these rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.; Median;

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

Indonesia Banking Survey: Loan Interest Rate: Whole Year Estimation: in USD: Consumption data was reported at 7.586 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.184 % for Dec 2024. Indonesia Banking Survey: Loan Interest Rate: Whole Year Estimation: in USD: Consumption data is updated quarterly, averaging 7.184 % from Mar 2012 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 53 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.247 % in Dec 2017 and a record low of 5.216 % in Sep 2022. Indonesia Banking Survey: Loan Interest Rate: Whole Year Estimation: in USD: Consumption data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank Indonesia. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Business and Economic Survey – Table ID.SE003: Banking Survey: Interest Rate. [COVID-19-IMPACT]