The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Effective Federal Funds Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 4.33 percent on Thursday June 5. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Effective Federal Funds Rate.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates, Discount Rate for United States (INTDSRUSM193N) from Jan 1950 to Aug 2021 about discount, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

This table contains 12 series, with data starting from 1954 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (1 item: United States); Rates (12 items: Federal Reserve Bank of New York - discount rate; Prime rate charged by banks; Federal funds rate;Commercial paper, adjusted: 1 month; ...).

These rates are commonly referred to as Constant Maturity Treasury rates, or CMTs. Yields are interpolated by the Treasury from the daily yield curve. This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity is based on the closing market bid yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. These market yields are calculated from composites of quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The yield values are read from the yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 1, 3 and 6 months and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years. This method provides a yield for a 10 year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity.

****Dataset Overview**** This dataset contains historical macroeconomic data, featuring key economic indicators in the United States. It includes important metrics such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Money Supply (M2), and more. The dataset spans from 1993 to the present and includes monthly data on various economic indicators, processed to show their rate of change (either percentage or absolute difference, depending on the indicator).

provenance

The data in this dataset is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED provides access to a wide range of economic data, including key macroeconomic indicators for the United States. My work involved calculating the rate of change (ROC) for each indicator and reorganizing the data into a more usable format for analysis. For more information and access to the full database, visit FRED's website.

Purpose and Use for the Kaggle Community:

This dataset is a valuable resource for data scientists, economists, and analysts interested in understanding macroeconomic trends, performing time series analysis, or building predictive models. With the rate of change included, users can quickly assess the growth or contraction in these indicators month-over-month. This dataset can be used for:

• Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA): Understanding historical economic trends. -Time Series Forecasting: Building models to predict future economic conditions. -Macroeconomic Analysis: Analyzing the relationship between various economic indicators. -Machine Learning Projects: Using the data as features to predict financial or economic outcomes. -By utilizing this dataset, users can perform in-depth analysis on the impact of macroeconomic changes, compare the historical performance of various indicators, and experiment with different time series forecasting techniques.

****Column Descriptions****

Year: The year of the observation.

Month: The month of the observation (1-12).

Industrial Production: Monthly data on the total output of US factories, mines, and utilities.

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, indicating future production activity.

Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): A measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.

Retail Sales: The total receipts of retail stores, indicating consumer spending and economic activity.

Producer Price Index: Measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): A measure of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, used in calculating inflation.

National Home Price Index: A measure of changes in residential real estate prices across the country.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm: The number of nonfarm payroll employees, an important indicator of the labor market.

Labor Force Participation Rate: The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work.

Federal Funds Effective Rate: The interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight.

Building Permits: The number of building permits issued for residential and non-residential buildings, a leading indicator of construction activity.

Money Supply (M2): The total money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money.

Personal Income: The total income received by individuals from all sources, including wages, investments, and government transfers.

Trade Balance: The difference between a country's imports and exports, indicating the net trade flow.

Consumer Sentiment: The index reflecting consumer sentiment and expectations for the future economic outlook.

Consumer Confidence: A measure of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation and the economy.

Notes on Interest Rates Please note that for the Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS), the dataset includes the absolute change in basis points (bps), not the rate of change. This means that the dataset reflects the direct change in the interest rate rather than the percentage change month-over-month. The change is represented in basis points, where 1 basis point equals 0.01%.

We use Bayesian methods to estimate changes in US post-war monetary policy in the Smets and Wouters model. We perform the estimations by allowing for a break in monetary policy at the time of Volcker's appointment as chairman. This enables us to capture changes in the monetary policy regime introduced by Volcker during the Volcker-Greenspan period. We find support for the assumption that monetary policy in the Volcker-Greenspan period performed optimally under commitment. Our estimation strategy allows us to estimate the preferences of the US Federal Reserve in the Volcker-Greenspan period, where the main objective of policy appears to be inflation, followed by interest rate stabilization, output growth and interest rate smoothing. We find that the Great Moderation of output growth is explained by a combination of two factors: the decrease in the volatility of the structural shocks and the improved monetary policy conduct. Inflation Stabilization, however, is mainly due to the change in monetary policy that took place at the beginning of Volcker's mandate.

This dataset includes various economic indicators such as stock market performance, inflation rates, GDP, interest rates, employment data, and housing index, all of which are crucial for understanding the state of the economy. By analysing this dataset, one can gain insights into the causes and effects of past recessions in the US, which can inform investment decisions and policy-making.

There are 20 columns and 343 rows spanning 1990-04 to 2022-10

The columns are:

1. Price: Price column refers to the S&P 500 lot price over the years. The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. This variable represents the value of the S&P 500 index from 1980 to present. Industrial Production: This variable measures the output of industrial establishments in the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It reflects the overall health of the manufacturing industry, which is a key component of the US economy.

2. INDPRO: Industrial production measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors of the economy. It provides insights into the overall health of the economy, as a decline in industrial production can indicate a slowdown in economic activity. This data can be used by policymakers and investors to assess the state of the economy and make informed decisions.

3. CPI: CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that consumers purchase. CPI inflation represents the rate at which the prices of goods and services in the economy are increasing.

4. Treasure Bill rate (3 month to 30 Years): Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term debt securities issued by the US government. This variable represents the interest rates on T-bills with maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years. It reflects the cost of borrowing money for the government and provides an indication of the overall level of interest rates in the economy.

5. GDP: GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a country. This dataset is taking into account only the Nominal GDP values. Nominal GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy without accounting for inflation.

6. Rate: The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. It is set by the Federal Reserve and is used as a tool to regulate the money supply in the economy.

7. BBK_Index: The BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

8. Housing Index: This variable represents the value of the housing market in the US. It is calculated based on the prices of homes sold in the market and provides an indication of the overall health of the housing market.

9. Recession binary column: This variable is a binary indicator that takes a value of 1 when the US economy is in a recession and 0 otherwise. It is based on the official business cycle dates provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In this paper we model and explain US macroeconomic outcomes subject to the discipline that monetary policy is set optimally. Exploiting the restrictions that come from optimal policymaking, we estimate the parameters in the Federal Reserve's policy objective function together with the parameters in its optimization constraints. For the period following Volcker's appointment as chairman, we estimate the implicit inflation target to be around 1.4% and show that policymakers assigned a significant weight to interest rate smoothing. We show that the estimated optimal policy provides a good description of US data for the 1980s and 1990s.

The benchmark interest rate in Hong Kong was last recorded at 4.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Hong Kong Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in China was last recorded at 3 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - China Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 8.50 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 20 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Brazil was last recorded at 14.75 percent. This dataset provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-06-08 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.