The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This dataset represents a snapshot of the FRED catalog, captured on 2025-03-24.

What is FRED? As per the FRED website,

Short for Federal Reserve Economic Data, FRED is an online database consisting of hundreds of thousands of economic data time series from scores of national, international, public, and private sources. FRED, created and maintained by the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, goes far beyond simply providing data: It combines data with a powerful mix of tools that help the user understand, interact with, display, and disseminate the data. In essence, FRED helps users tell their data stories. The purpose of this article is to guide the potential (or current) FRED user through the various aspects and tools of the database.

The FRED database is an abolute gold mine of economic data time series. Thousands of such series are published on the FRED website, organized by category and avialable for viewing and downloading. In fact, a number of these economic datasets have been uploaded to kaggle. With in the current notebook, however, we are not interested in the individual time series; rather, we are focused on catalog itself.

The FRED API has been used for gaining access to the catalog. The catalog consists of two files

• categories.csv - the heirarchy of categories used for organizing the time series
• series.csv - the list of avialable time series themselves

A given category is identified by a category_id. And, in a similar fashion, a given series is identified by a series_id. In a given category, one may find both a group of series and a set of sub-categories. As such every series record contains a category_id to identify the immediate category under which it is found category record contains a parent_id to indicate where in the category heirarchy it resides

Analysis of ‘USA Key Economic Indicators’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/calven22/usa-key-macroeconomic-indicators on 28 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

Context

Domino’s Pizza, like many other restaurant chains, is getting pinched by higher food costs. The company’s chief executive, Richard Allison, anticipates “unprecedented increases” in the company’s food costs, which could jump by 8-10%. He said that is three to four times what the pizza chain would normally expect in a year.

This leads to the paramount issue of inflation which affects every aspects of the economy, from consumer spending, business investment and employment rates to government programs, tax policies, and interest rates. The recent release of consumer inflation data showed prices rose at the fastest pace since 1982. Inflation forecasting is key in the conduct of monetary policy and can be used in many other ways such as preserving asset values. This dataset is a consolidated macroeconomic official statistics from 1981 to 2021, containing data available in month and quarterly format.

Content

The Core Consumer Price Index (ccpi) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy due to their volatility. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a often used to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

Do note there are some null values in the dataset.

Acknowledgements

All data belongs to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis official release, and are retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Inspiration

What are some noticeable patterns or seasonality of the economy? What are the current trends of the economy? Which indicators has an effect on Core CPI or vice-versa based on predictive power or influence?

Quarterly data and monthly data can be merged with forward-fill or interpolation methods.

What is the forecast of Core CPI in 2022?

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

****Dataset Overview**** This dataset contains historical macroeconomic data, featuring key economic indicators in the United States. It includes important metrics such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Money Supply (M2), and more. The dataset spans from 1993 to the present and includes monthly data on various economic indicators, processed to show their rate of change (either percentage or absolute difference, depending on the indicator).

provenance

The data in this dataset is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED provides access to a wide range of economic data, including key macroeconomic indicators for the United States. My work involved calculating the rate of change (ROC) for each indicator and reorganizing the data into a more usable format for analysis. For more information and access to the full database, visit FRED's website.

Purpose and Use for the Kaggle Community:

This dataset is a valuable resource for data scientists, economists, and analysts interested in understanding macroeconomic trends, performing time series analysis, or building predictive models. With the rate of change included, users can quickly assess the growth or contraction in these indicators month-over-month. This dataset can be used for:

• Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA): Understanding historical economic trends. -Time Series Forecasting: Building models to predict future economic conditions. -Macroeconomic Analysis: Analyzing the relationship between various economic indicators. -Machine Learning Projects: Using the data as features to predict financial or economic outcomes. -By utilizing this dataset, users can perform in-depth analysis on the impact of macroeconomic changes, compare the historical performance of various indicators, and experiment with different time series forecasting techniques.

****Column Descriptions****

Year: The year of the observation.

Month: The month of the observation (1-12).

Industrial Production: Monthly data on the total output of US factories, mines, and utilities.

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, indicating future production activity.

Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): A measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.

Retail Sales: The total receipts of retail stores, indicating consumer spending and economic activity.

Producer Price Index: Measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): A measure of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, used in calculating inflation.

National Home Price Index: A measure of changes in residential real estate prices across the country.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm: The number of nonfarm payroll employees, an important indicator of the labor market.

Labor Force Participation Rate: The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work.

Federal Funds Effective Rate: The interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight.

Building Permits: The number of building permits issued for residential and non-residential buildings, a leading indicator of construction activity.

Money Supply (M2): The total money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money.

Personal Income: The total income received by individuals from all sources, including wages, investments, and government transfers.

Trade Balance: The difference between a country's imports and exports, indicating the net trade flow.

Consumer Sentiment: The index reflecting consumer sentiment and expectations for the future economic outlook.

Consumer Confidence: A measure of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation and the economy.

Notes on Interest Rates Please note that for the Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS), the dataset includes the absolute change in basis points (bps), not the rate of change. This means that the dataset reflects the direct change in the interest rate rather than the percentage change month-over-month. The change is represented in basis points, where 1 basis point equals 0.01%.

View economic output, reported as the nominal value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

This dataset was used for an analysis of the transmission of US monetary policy and demand shocks on the Japan’s economy. All of this data was collected from the Federal Reserve’s FRED database and is publicly available.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States decreased to -0.25 points in April from 0.03 points in March of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This dataset includes various economic indicators such as stock market performance, inflation rates, GDP, interest rates, employment data, and housing index, all of which are crucial for understanding the state of the economy. By analysing this dataset, one can gain insights into the causes and effects of past recessions in the US, which can inform investment decisions and policy-making.

There are 20 columns and 343 rows spanning 1990-04 to 2022-10

The columns are:

1. Price: Price column refers to the S&P 500 lot price over the years. The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. This variable represents the value of the S&P 500 index from 1980 to present. Industrial Production: This variable measures the output of industrial establishments in the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It reflects the overall health of the manufacturing industry, which is a key component of the US economy.

2. INDPRO: Industrial production measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors of the economy. It provides insights into the overall health of the economy, as a decline in industrial production can indicate a slowdown in economic activity. This data can be used by policymakers and investors to assess the state of the economy and make informed decisions.

3. CPI: CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that consumers purchase. CPI inflation represents the rate at which the prices of goods and services in the economy are increasing.

4. Treasure Bill rate (3 month to 30 Years): Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term debt securities issued by the US government. This variable represents the interest rates on T-bills with maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years. It reflects the cost of borrowing money for the government and provides an indication of the overall level of interest rates in the economy.

5. GDP: GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a country. This dataset is taking into account only the Nominal GDP values. Nominal GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy without accounting for inflation.

6. Rate: The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. It is set by the Federal Reserve and is used as a tool to regulate the money supply in the economy.

7. BBK_Index: The BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

8. Housing Index: This variable represents the value of the housing market in the US. It is calculated based on the prices of homes sold in the market and provides an indication of the overall health of the housing market.

9. Recession binary column: This variable is a binary indicator that takes a value of 1 when the US economy is in a recession and 0 otherwise. It is based on the official business cycle dates provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

View the total value of the assets of all Federal Reserve Banks as reported in the weekly balance sheet.

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short-term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994-2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model-implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period.

Money Supply M2 in the United States increased to 21862.50 USD Billion in April from 21706.80 USD Billion in March of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Central Bank Balance Sheet in the United States decreased to 6672885 USD Million in June 3 from 6673244 USD Million in the previous week. This dataset provides - United States Central Bank Balance Sheet - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to -15.30 points in May from -35.80 points in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

We study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity separately identifying the effects of a conventional change in the fed funds rate from the policy of forward guidance. We use a structural VAR identified using external instruments from futures market data. The response of output to a fed funds rate shock is found to be consistent with typical monetary VAR analyses. However, the effect of a forward guidance shock that increases long-term interest rates has an expansionary effect on output. This counterintuitive response is shown to be tied to the asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public.

Money Supply M0 in the United States decreased to 5732900 USD Million in April from 5775200 USD Million in March of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Money Supply M0 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) from Jan 1959 to Apr 2025 about savings, personal, rate, and USA.

The data hub publishes a broad set of measures across pertinent topics such as public health, government spending, personal finances, and employment to assess the longer-term economic impact of the pandemic and the efficacy of recovery efforts. It includes indicators on health (COVID-19 cases, deaths), economy (unemployment claims, retail sales, air travel passengers, etc), standard of living (household spending, personal income, food scarcity, housing insecurity, etc), and government (federal government spending, federal reserve assets, state tax revenue, federal deficit).

This file contains the data and code for the publication "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs" by A. C. Kamkoum, 2023.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to -4 points in May from -26.40 points in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.