Context

The Federal Reserve sets interest rates to promote conditions that achieve the mandate set by the Congress — high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and moderate long-term interest rates. Interest rates set by the Fed directly influence the cost of borrowing money. Lower interest rates encourage more people to obtain a mortgage for a new home or to borrow money for an automobile or for home improvement. Lower rates encourage businesses to borrow funds to invest in expansion such as purchasing new equipment, updating plants, or hiring more workers. Higher interest rates restrain such borrowing by consumers and businesses.

Content

This dataset includes data on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate. The effective federal funds rate is determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate; the target rate transitioned to a target range with an upper and lower limit in December 2008. The real gross domestic product is calculated as the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the gross domestic product based on chained 2009 dollars. The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force. The inflation rate reflects the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index of products excluding food and energy.

Acknowledgements

The interest rate data was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal. The gross domestic product data was provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; the unemployment and consumer price index data was provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inspiration

How does economic growth, unemployment, and inflation impact the Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions? How has the interest rate policy changed over time? Can you predict the Federal Reserve's next decision? Will the target range set in March 2017 be increased, decreased, or remain the same?

The interest rate set by the Federal Reserve is a crucial tool for promoting economic conditions that meet the mandate established by the United States Congress, which includes high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and the moderation of long-term interest rates. The interest rates determined by the Fed directly influence the cost of credit, making financing either more accessible or more restrictive. When interest rates are low, there is a greater incentive for consumers to purchase homes through mortgages, finance automobiles, or undertake home renovations. Additionally, businesses are encouraged to invest in expanding their operations, whether by purchasing new equipment, modernizing facilities, or hiring more workers. Conversely, higher interest rates tend to curb such activity, discouraging borrowing and slowing economic expansion.

The dataset analyzed contains information on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954, including the federal funds rate, which represents the percentage at which financial institutions trade reserves held at the Federal Reserve with each other in the interbank market overnight. This rate is determined by the market but is directly influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the established target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate target, which has been defined within a range with upper and lower limits since December 2008.

Furthermore, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is calculated based on the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the economy, using chained 2009 dollars as a reference. The unemployment rate represents the seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Meanwhile, the inflation rate is determined by the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy prices for a more stable analysis of core inflation.

The interest rate data was sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal, while GDP information was provided by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and unemployment and inflation data were made available by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The analysis of this data helps to understand how economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Additionally, it allows for a study of the evolution of interest rate policies over time and raises the question of how predictable the Fed’s future decisions may be. Based on observed trends, it is possible to speculate whether the target range set in March 2017 will be maintained, lowered, or increased, considering the prevailing economic context and the challenges faced in conducting U.S. monetary policy.

Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1b40e0ca-7d2e-4fbc-8cfd-df3f09e4fdb8">

To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is normally a triennial cross-sectional survey of U.S. families. The survey data include information on families' balance sheets, pensions, income, and demographic characteristics.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) from Jan 1959 to Aug 2025 about savings, personal, rate, and USA.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to -0.12 points in August from -0.28 points in July of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

"This dataset, sourced from the extensive FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) database of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, represents a comprehensive series of economic data of all the releases from the start till date, providing an in-depth exploration of economic trends and indicators specific to the St. Louis region. It includes a rich collection of economic metrics, such as employment figures, inflation rates, and housing statistics. Tailored for data scientists, economists, and researchers, this dataset offers a focused lens into the economic dynamics of St. Louis

Key Features

How to Harness the Dataset's Full Potential

1. Advanced Analytics: Explore intricate economic trends and patterns, employing advanced data analytics and machine learning for precise decision-making.

2. In-Depth Research: Conduct nuanced research, including econometric modeling and policy impact analysis, to contribute to academic and policy insights.

3. Policy Optimization: Utilize the data for complex policy assessments, evaluating scenarios, and optimizing decision-making processes.

4. Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Foster collaboration between data analysts, researchers, and policymakers to address multifaceted economic challenges collectively.

5. Real-Time Surveillance: Continuously monitor dynamic economic trends, enabling proactive responses to evolving conditions from various professional perspectives.

Please upvote and show your support if you find this dataset valuable for your research or analysis. 🙌 Your feedback and contributions help make this dataset more accessible to the Kaggle community. 🚀 Thank you! 🙏

The Uniform Bank Performance Report (UBPR) serves as an analysis of the impact that management and economic conditions can have on a bank's balance sheet. It examines liquidity, adequacy of capital and earnings and other factors that could damage the stability of the bank. The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) is a formal U.S. government interagency body that includes five banking regulators—the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (FRB), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). It is "empowered to prescribe uniform principles, standards, and report forms to promote uniformity in the supervision of financial institutions".[1] It also oversees real estate appraisal in the United States.[2] Its regulations are contained in title 12 of the Code of Federal Regulations.

Graph and download economic data for Real gross domestic product per capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q2 2025 about per capita, real, GDP, and USA.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States decreased to -10.40 points in November from -5 points in October of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Jerome Powell FED Press Conference Transcripts Dataset

Dataset Overview

The most comprehensive collection of Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve press conference transcripts (2018-2025) - perfect for NLP, sentiment analysis, and financial market research!

This dataset contains clean, structured transcripts from every FOMC press conference where Jerome Powell spoke as Federal Reserve Chair, with automated name tagging and text cleaning for immediate use in machine learning projects, data analysis or research.

ML Project ideas:

• LLM fine tuning - Create a Jerome Powell LLM, and ask it what will the FED do
• Sentiment Analysis - How Powell's tone affects markets
• Topic Modeling - Key themes in Fed communications
• Named Entity Recognition - Financial figure identification
• Time Series Analysis - Policy evolution over time
• Predictive Modeling - Market reaction forecasting

📊 Dataset Statistics - Data Points: 50,000+ text segments - Time Coverage: 6+ years of Fed communications - Market Events: 3 major economic cycles - Policy Changes: 15+ interest rate decisions - Market Impact: $100+ billion in daily volatility

🔥 Community ideas:

1. "Powell Sentiment Index"

• Real-time Fed sentiment scoring
• Market Impact: Predict market reactions to Fed communications
• Social Sharing: Daily sentiment updates on Twitter/LinkedIn #### 2. "Fed Policy Predictor"
• Predict Fed decisions before they happen
• Accuracy: Historical prediction validation
• Engagement: Weekly prediction contests #### 3. "Powell Word Cloud Generator" ☁️
• Visual representation of Fed priorities
• Interactive: Real-time word cloud updates
• Shareable: Perfect for social media #### 4. "Market Reaction Analyzer" Quantify Powell's market impact
• Real-time: Live analysis during press conferences
• Trading: Identify profitable trading opportunities

Author: Jonathan Paserman

This dataset contains panel data for a sample of 15 countries (Australia, Austria, Canada, China, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and United States) over the period 2006-2015. The series used are available for a small number of developed countries and for a relatively short time period. Solar PV module prices, imports of solar PV panels and public budget for R&D in PV are in real terms and were obtained by dividing them by the United States GDP deflator. The series are obtained from five main sources. Imports value of solar PV panels series are taken from Commodity Trade Statistics database (COMTRADE). PV panels (cells and modules) are a part of the category HS 854140, "Photosensitive Semiconductor Devices, Photovoltaic Cells and Light-Emitting Diodes". Solar PV module prices, cumulative installed PV capacity and public budget for R&D in PV series are constructed from the PVPS report Trends in Photovoltaic Applications of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Population density, political stability index, renewable energy consumption and per capita carbon dioxide emissions series are all obtained from the World Bank (WB). Real GDP per capita series is taken from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Technological development in PV and crude oil import price series are drawn from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) database. Since crude oil import price series are not available for China and Israel, we use the West Texas Intermediate spot crude oil price as a proxy. The dummy for presence of feed-in tariff is constructed from the OECD database.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 3 percent in September from 2.90 percent in August of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Context

Domino’s Pizza, like many other restaurant chains, is getting pinched by higher food costs. The company’s chief executive, Richard Allison, anticipates “unprecedented increases” in the company’s food costs, which could jump by 8-10%. He said that is three to four times what the pizza chain would normally expect in a year.

This leads to the paramount issue of inflation which affects every aspects of the economy, from consumer spending, business investment and employment rates to government programs, tax policies, and interest rates. The recent release of consumer inflation data showed prices rose at the fastest pace since 1982. Inflation forecasting is key in the conduct of monetary policy and can be used in many other ways such as preserving asset values. This dataset is a consolidated macroeconomic official statistics from 1981 to 2021, containing data available in month and quarterly format.

Content

The Core Consumer Price Index (ccpi) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy due to their volatility. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a often used to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

Do note there are some null values in the dataset.

Acknowledgements

All data belongs to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis official release, and are retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Inspiration

What are some noticeable patterns or seasonality of the economy? What are the current trends of the economy? Which indicators has an effect on Core CPI or vice-versa based on predictive power or influence?

Quarterly data and monthly data can be merged with forward-fill or interpolation methods.

What is the forecast of Core CPI in 2022?

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This dataset, identified by the series ID RSXFS, is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau and is available through the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system of the St. Louis Fed. It provides a monthly measure of retail sales across the United States. The data represents the total value of sales at retail and food services stores, measured in millions of dollars and adjusted for seasonal variations. It is important to note that the most recent month's value is an advance estimate, which is subject to revision in subsequent months as more comprehensive data becomes available. As a key economic indicator, this series is widely used by economists and analysts to gauge consumer spending and assess the overall health of the U.S. economy.

Suggested Use Cases: - This dataset is highly valuable for economic analysis and can be used to: - Conduct time series analysis and modeling. - Track consumer spending patterns. - Forecast future retail sales. - Analyze the impact of economic events on the retail sector.

License The RSXFS dataset is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau and is considered Public Domain: Citation Requested. This means the data is freely available for use, but you must cite the source and acknowledge that the data was obtained from FRED. If you plan on using any copyrighted series from other data providers on FRED for commercial purposes, you would need to contact the original data owner for permission.

Data Fields: The dataset primarily contains two columns: - observation_date: The date of the monthly data point, recorded as the first day of each month from January 1992 to July 2025. - RSXFS: The value of advance retail sales in millions of dollars.

Citation and Provenance:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Release: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services
FRED Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS
Citation: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade [RSXFS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS, September 8, 2025.

The benchmark interest rate in Pakistan was last recorded at 11 percent. This dataset provides - Pakistan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.