Context

The Federal Reserve sets interest rates to promote conditions that achieve the mandate set by the Congress — high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and moderate long-term interest rates. Interest rates set by the Fed directly influence the cost of borrowing money. Lower interest rates encourage more people to obtain a mortgage for a new home or to borrow money for an automobile or for home improvement. Lower rates encourage businesses to borrow funds to invest in expansion such as purchasing new equipment, updating plants, or hiring more workers. Higher interest rates restrain such borrowing by consumers and businesses.

Content

This dataset includes data on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate. The effective federal funds rate is determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate; the target rate transitioned to a target range with an upper and lower limit in December 2008. The real gross domestic product is calculated as the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the gross domestic product based on chained 2009 dollars. The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force. The inflation rate reflects the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index of products excluding food and energy.

Acknowledgements

The interest rate data was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal. The gross domestic product data was provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; the unemployment and consumer price index data was provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inspiration

How does economic growth, unemployment, and inflation impact the Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions? How has the interest rate policy changed over time? Can you predict the Federal Reserve's next decision? Will the target range set in March 2017 be increased, decreased, or remain the same?

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The interest rate set by the Federal Reserve is a crucial tool for promoting economic conditions that meet the mandate established by the United States Congress, which includes high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and the moderation of long-term interest rates. The interest rates determined by the Fed directly influence the cost of credit, making financing either more accessible or more restrictive. When interest rates are low, there is a greater incentive for consumers to purchase homes through mortgages, finance automobiles, or undertake home renovations. Additionally, businesses are encouraged to invest in expanding their operations, whether by purchasing new equipment, modernizing facilities, or hiring more workers. Conversely, higher interest rates tend to curb such activity, discouraging borrowing and slowing economic expansion.

The dataset analyzed contains information on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954, including the federal funds rate, which represents the percentage at which financial institutions trade reserves held at the Federal Reserve with each other in the interbank market overnight. This rate is determined by the market but is directly influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the established target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate target, which has been defined within a range with upper and lower limits since December 2008.

Furthermore, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is calculated based on the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the economy, using chained 2009 dollars as a reference. The unemployment rate represents the seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Meanwhile, the inflation rate is determined by the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy prices for a more stable analysis of core inflation.

The interest rate data was sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal, while GDP information was provided by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and unemployment and inflation data were made available by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The analysis of this data helps to understand how economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Additionally, it allows for a study of the evolution of interest rate policies over time and raises the question of how predictable the Fed’s future decisions may be. Based on observed trends, it is possible to speculate whether the target range set in March 2017 will be maintained, lowered, or increased, considering the prevailing economic context and the challenges faced in conducting U.S. monetary policy.

Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

A dataset of mentions, growth rate, and total volume of the keyphrase 'Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates' over time.

Effective Federal Funds Rate in the United States increased to 3.89 percent on Friday November 28 from 3.88 in the previous day. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Effective Federal Funds Rate.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

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To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

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View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

Source is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/"NAME OF MEASURE" Column names are "Name of Measure" from FRED's catalog.

Group 1: Yield Curve Indicators These focus on the shape of the Treasury yield curve, comparing longer-term to shorter-term rates. They are primarily used to: Signal Economic Expectations: A normal curve (longer-term rates higher) suggests expectations of growth and possibly inflation. A flattening or inverted curve (short-term rates near or above long-term) could signal a potential slowdown or recession.

Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations These spreads look at the difference between Treasury yields and the Federal Funds Rate, the primary tool of monetary policy. They indicate: Market vs. Fed Outlook: Widening spreads could suggest the market expects faster rate hikes or higher long-term inflation than the Fed is signaling. Narrowing spreads could mean the opposite. Risk-Taking: When these spreads widen, it can be a sign of investors moving from safe Treasuries to riskier assets in search of yield.

Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment These spreads focus on corporate bond yields relative to Treasuries, highlighting the added compensation investors require for holding riskier corporate debt. They signal: Credit Conditions: Widening spreads suggest deteriorating credit conditions or lower risk tolerance among investors. Narrowing spreads suggest the opposite. Economic Confidence: Investors often demand higher premiums for corporate bonds during economic uncertainty, widening these spreads.

Group 4: Breakeven Inflation Rates The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.25 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.50 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 5 Year data was reported at 3.085 % pa in Nov 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.135 % pa for Oct 2018. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 5 Year data is updated monthly, averaging 2.826 % pa from Jul 2000 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 221 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.167 % pa in Jul 2000 and a record low of 0.785 % pa in Nov 2012. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 5 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M014: Interest Rate: Swaps Rates.

United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 10 Year data was reported at 3.174 % pa in Nov 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.205 % pa for Oct 2018. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 10 Year data is updated monthly, averaging 3.587 % pa from Jul 2000 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 221 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.237 % pa in Jul 2000 and a record low of 1.393 % pa in Jul 2016. United States Interest Rate Swaps: Mth Avg: 10 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M014: Interest Rate: Swaps Rates.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 16.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Sweden was last recorded at 1.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sweden Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

NASDAQ Stock Data with Economic Indicators

Overview

This dataset comprises historical stock price data for NASDAQ-listed companies, combined with a selection of key economic indicators. It is designed to provide a comprehensive view of market behavior, facilitating financial analysis and predictive modeling. Users can explore relationships between stock performance and various economic factors.

Features

The dataset includes the following features:

• Date: The date of the recorded stock prices (formatted as YYYY-MM-DD).

• Open: The price at which the stock opened for trading on a given day.

• High: The highest price reached by the stock during the trading day.

• Low: The lowest price recorded during the trading day.

• Close: The price at which the stock closed at the end of the trading day.

• Volume: The total number of shares traded during the day.

• Interest Rate: The prevailing interest rate, which influences economic activity and stock performance.

• Exchange Rate: The exchange rate for the USD against other currencies, reflecting international market influences.

• VIX: The Volatility Index, a measure of market risk and investor sentiment, often referred to as the "fear index."

• Gold: The price of gold per ounce, which serves as a traditional safe-haven asset and is often inversely correlated with stock prices.

• Oil: The price of crude oil, an essential commodity that influences various sectors, especially transportation and manufacturing.

• TED Spread: The difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and short-term U.S. government debt, which indicates credit risk in the banking system.

• EFFR (Effective Federal Funds Rate): The interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight, influencing overall economic activity.

Use Cases

This dataset is suitable for a variety of applications, including: - Financial Analysis: Evaluate historical trends in stock prices relative to economic indicators. - Predictive Modeling: Develop machine learning models to forecast stock price movements based on historical data and economic variables. - Time Series Analysis: Conduct analyses over different time frames (daily, weekly, monthly, yearly) to identify patterns and anomalies.

Data Source

The data is sourced from reputable financial APIs and databases: - Yahoo Finance: Historical stock prices. - Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): Economic indicators such as interest rates and VIX. - Alpha Vantage / Quandl: Commodity prices for gold and oil.

Conclusion

This dataset provides a rich foundation for analysts, researchers, and data scientists interested in the intersection of stock market performance and macroeconomic conditions. Its structured features and comprehensive nature make it a valuable resource for both academic and practical financial inquiries.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 7.25 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.