Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States contracted 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Jun 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

This dataset is about book subjects. It has 6 rows and is filtered where the books is Corporate dreams : big business in American democracy from the Great Depression to the great recession. It features 10 columns including number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany expanded 0.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

During the Great Recession many incumbent parties were not confirmed in power by the ballots. The harsh law of the economic vote severely undermined their electoral chances. Yet it is unclear if they were punished by the absolute poor state of affairs, or by the relative deterioration of the economy; by a direct judgement of the domestic situation, or by its comparison with some external benchmark capturing more global dynamics; and whether or not the global crisis modified all these parameters. This exploratory analysis looks into all these issues using a dataset covering all the elections that took place in 38 democracies in the period 2000-2015, and contributing to the recent debate about the actual benchmarking of the state of the economy from behalf of voters. The Great Recession confirms its exceptional character, revealing that absolute reference points became more important than tailored benchmarks and short-term comparisons.

During the Great Recession, exceptionally harsh economic conditions were often countered by austerity policies that, according to many, further worsened and protracted the negative conjuncture. Both elements, the poor state of the economy and the contractionary manoeuvers, are supposed to reduce the electoral prospects for incumbents. In this article, we compare the relative explanatory powers of these two theories before and during the economic crisis. We demonstrate that in normal times citizens are fiscally responsible, whereas during the Great Recession, and under certain conditions, austerity policies systematically reduced the support for incumbents on top of the state of the economy. This happened when the burdens of the manoeuvers were shared by many, in more equal societies, when the country was constrained by external conditionalities and when readjustments were mostly based on tax increases.

This is additional data for the paper "The short- and long-term effects of the Great Recession on late-life depression in Europe: The role of area deprivation" published in Social Science & Medicine (2022).

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Supplemental Material (.docx) 2 Supplemental Material (.pdf) 3 Stata Do-File (see the remark in the do-file for the reproduction steps)

The Great Recession undoubtedly reduced the electoral prospects of incumbent parties, coherently with the expectations of the economic vote theory. Yet, the exceptionality of the period may have displaced other elements of that theory, such as, for instance, the moderating impact that globalization is supposed to have on the retrospective mechanism. By using an original dataset comparing 168 elections in 38 democratic countries in the period 2000–2015, we detail how the crisis modified and even reversed that conditional effect. Furthermore, we differentiate our results by separating the impact of economic openness from that of political globalization. In so doing, we improve our understanding of the mechanisms that trigger the conditional effect on the economic vote in normal and exceptional times.

Abstract of associated article: In this paper, we shed light on the relative contribution of the separation and job finding rates to French unemployment at business cycle frequencies by using administrative data on registered unemployment and labor force surveys. We first investigate the fluctuations in steady state unemployment, and then in current unemployment in order to take into account the unemployment deviations from equilibrium. Both data sets lead to quite similar results. Both rates contributed to unemployment fluctuations during the nineties (50:50 split), while in the last decade the job finding rate was more significant and explained around 65% of the French unemployment fluctuations. In particular, the last business cycle episode, including the last recession, exacerbated the role of the job finding rate. We then show that the predominant role of the job finding rate in the last decade holds when the economy is hit by aggregate business cycle shocks, moving unemployment and vacancies along the Beveridge curve.

We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of fluctuations in the effectiveness of the labor market matching process with a focus on the Great Recession. We conduct our analysis in the context of an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and equilibrium search unemployment that features a shock to the matching efficiency (or mismatch shock). We find that this shock is not important for unemployment fluctuations in normal times. However, it plays a somewhat larger role during the Great Recession when it contributes to raise the actual unemployment rate by around 1.3 percentage points and the natural rate by around 2 percentage points. The mismatch shock is the dominant driver of the natural rate of unemployment and explains part of the recent shift of the Beveridge curve.

We estimate a DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model where rare large shocks can occur, by replacing the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student's t-distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (American Economic Review 2007; 97: 586-606) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964-2011 period indicate that (i) the Student's t specification is strongly favored by the data even when we allow for low-frequency variation in the volatility of the shocks, and (ii)) the estimated degrees of freedom are quite low for several shocks that drive US business cycles, implying an important role for rare large shocks. This result holds even if we exclude the Great Recession period from the sample. We also show that inference about low-frequency changes in volatility-and, in particular, inference about the magnitude of Great Moderation-is different once we allow for fat tails.

Milton Friedman’s plucking model of business cycles hypothesizes that deeper recessions forecast larger booms while stronger booms do not necessarily forecast deeper recessions. This paper tests the plucking model using Maddison Project growth data for 169 countries across several centuries. We find 56.9% of the per capita GDP growth magnitude in the last year of a downturn forecasts the per capita GDP growth magnitude of the subsequent first recovery year while only 16.2% of the last boom year per capita GDP growth magnitude forecasts the per capita GDP growth magnitude of the first year in the subsequent downturn, suggesting that the plucking model holds up relatively well. Combining our finding that first post-recession boom year per capita GDP growth rate is typically is 0.7% higher than later boom years suggests that recoveries generally exhibit “reverse square root” shapes.

This release looks at the increase in unemployment during the recent economic downturn. Increases in unemployment will be compared across regions in the UK, age groups, gender and other characteristics. Claimant count data will also be included.

Source agency: Office for National Statistics

Designation: National Statistics

Language: English

Alternative title: Unemployment during the economic downturn

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (INDREC) from May 1996 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and India.

This project examines how teacher collective bargaining agreements (CBAs), teacher salaries, and class sizes changed during the Great Recession. Using a district-level dataset of California teacher CBAs that includes measures of subarea contract strength and salaries from 2005-06 and 2011-12 tied to district-level longitudinal data, we estimate difference-in-difference models to examine bargaining outcomes for districts that should have been more or less fiscally constrained. We find that unions and administrators change critical elements of CBAs and district policy during times of fiscal duress. This includes increasing class sizes, reducing instructional time, and lowering base salaries to relieve financial pressures and negotiating increased protections for teachers in areas with less direct financial implications, including grievance procedures and non-teaching duties.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada expanded 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Canada GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.