Between 1964 and 2020, turnout among black voters in U.S. presidential elections fluctuated between 48 and 62 percent, with the highest turnouts coming in 2008 and 2012, when Barack Obama (the first African American candidate from a major party) was the Democratic candidate. Voter turnout has always been lowest among those under 25 years of age, although younger black voters did participate in high numbers in the 1960s, during the civil rights movement, and again in 2008, during Obama's first election campaign; young black voters also participated in higher numbers than white voters of the same age between 2000 and 2012.

In 1964, black voters over the age of 65 voted at a similar rate to those in the 18 to 24 bracket, however they have consistently had the highest turnout rates among black voters in recent years, overtaking voters in the 45 to 64 years bracket (whose voting rate has consistently been between 60 and 70 percent) in the 1996 election.

The polling conducted by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight used its KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel chosen to be representative of the American population. The data given here is from that survey. The survey, which was conducted from September 15 to September 25, included 8,327 respondents and was weighted in accordance with general population benchmarks for American citizens from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey March 2019 Supplement. It oversampled young, Black, and Hispanic respondents. The voter file company Aristotle then matched answers to a voter file using the panelist's first name, last name, zip code, and eight characters of their address, utilizing the National Change of Address program if relevant, in order to more precisely identify their voting history.

Although restricting formal voting rights—voter suppression—is not uncommon in democracies, its incidence and form vary widely. Intuitively, when competing elites believe that the benefits of reducing voting by opponents outweigh the costs of voter suppression, it is more likely to occur. Internal political and state capacity and external actors, however, influence the form voter suppression takes. When elites competing for office lack the ability to enact laws restricting voting due to limited internal capacity, or external actors are able to limit the ability of governments to use laws to suppress voting, suppression is likely to be ad hoc, decentralized, and potentially violent. As political and state capacity increase and external constraints decrease, voter suppression will shift from decentralized and potentially violent to centralized and mostly non-violent. We illustrate our arguments by analyzing the transition from decentralized, violent voter suppression through the use of lynchings (and associated violence) to the centralized, less violent suppression of black voting in the post-Reconstruction South. We also place the most recent wave of U.S. state voter suppression laws into broader context using our theoretical framework.

Some racial and ethnic categories are suppressed to avoid misleading estimates when the relative standard error exceeds 30%. Margins of error are estimated at the 90% confidence level.

Data Source: Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting Supplement, 2020

Why This Matters

Voting is one of the primary ways residents can have their voices heard by the government. By voting for elected officials and on ballot initiatives, residents help decide the future of their community.

For much of our nation’s history, non-white residents were explicitly prohibited from voting or discriminated against in the voting process. It was not until the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that the Federal Government enacted voting rights protections for Black voters and voters of color.

Nationally, BIPOC citizens and especially Hispanic and Asian citizens have consistently lower voter turnout rates and voter registration rates. While local DC efforts have been taken to remove these barriers, restrictive voter ID requirements and the disenfranchisement of incarcerated and returning residents act as institutionally racist barriers to voting in many jurisdictions.

The District's Response

The DC Board of Elections has lowered the barriers to participate in local elections through online voter registration, same day registration, voting by mail, and non-ID proof of residence.

Unlike in many states, incarcerated and returning residents in D.C. never lose the right to vote. Since 2024, DC has also extended the right to vote in local elections to residents of the District who are not citizens of the U.S.

Although DC residents pay federal taxes and can vote in the presidential election, the District does not have full representation in Congress. Efforts to advocate for DC statehood aim to remedy this.

The elimination of Black voting in the U.S. South after Reconstruction is the most significant instance of democratic backsliding in American history. I use newly collected state legislative roll call data from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, consisting of more than 19,400 unique roll calls, to explore Black disfranchisement’s consequences for legislative representation. Using ideal point estimates in a panel design, I demonstrate that disfranchisement is associated with substantial changes in roll call voting. In states where competition between Democrats and Republicans structured roll call voting, disfranchisement precipitated shifts away from more-Republican roll call records. In states already dominated by Democrats before disfranchisement, disfranchisement often led to relative shifts toward the agrarian, reform wing of the Democratic Party. These results demonstrate the centrality of Black disfranchisement for the creation of the Solid South and the significant impact of Black suffrage on southern politics in the years following Reconstruction.

The National Asian American Survey (NAAS) Post-Election Survey, 2016 contains nationally representative data from telephone interviews of adult U.S. residents who self-identified as Asian/Asian American, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, White, African American/Black, Hispanic/Latino, and Multiracial. The survey included sizable samples of Asian Americans in 9 Asian national origin groups (Chinese, Filipino, Indian, Vietnamese, Korean, Japanese, Hmong, Cambodian), as well as Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders. The survey instrument included questions about immigrant background, social identities, social attitudes, political behavior, and policy attitudes. Demographic information included age, race, language, gender, country of birth, religion, marital status, educational level, employment status, citizenship status, household income, and size of household. The study contains 2 data files, public-use and restricted-use versions of the same dataset (386 variables, 6448 cases).

Prior research has found that descriptive representation by race, ethnicity, or gender increases political action, but it has paid less attention to how the intersection of these identities influences participation. We extend this literature by assessing the effects on voter turnout of collective descriptive representation in U.S. state legislatures on the basis of race, ethnicity, gender, and their intersections. We argue that members of historically excluded groups respond to the overall composition of their state’s legislature. We test this proposition in seven elections (2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012). Our results are consistent with the minority empowerment literature, as overall collective representation does substantially increase turnout among previously excluded groups. However, the impact varies intersectionally. For white women, gender trumps race, as higher collective gender representation, regardless of race or ethnicity, increases voter turnout. For African Americans, race trumps gender, as both black men and women respond most consistently to higher levels of collective racial representation. For Latinos, we find less consistent results, but note a collective ethnic turnout effect for 2002 and 2006. We conclude that collective representation, especially at the intersection of identities, is an important factor influencing levels of turnout among previously excluded groups.