Description

This dataset contains the county-wise vote share of the United States presidential election of 2020, and in the future 2024, the main advantage of the dataset is that it contains various important county statistics such as the counties racial composition, median and mean income, income inequality, population density, education level, population and the counties occupational distribution.

_Imp: this dataset will be updated as the 2024 results come in, I will also be adding more county demographic data, if you have any queries or suggestions please feel free to comment _

Motivation

The reasons for constructing this dataset are many, however the prime reason was to aggregate all the data on counties along with the election result data for easy analysis in one place. I noticed that Kaggle contains no datasets with detailed county information, and that using the US census bureau site is pretty difficult and time consuming to extract data so it would be better to have a pre-prepared table of data

Columns

• The first columns contain information on the county and state
• The next columns contain the 2020 vote both raw and %
• The next columns contain the education level of the county population
• Following that we have information about the income and income inequality in the county
• Then we have the county racial composition
• The counties population and population density
• The final columns contain information about the distribution of occupations in the county

The Cumulative Report includes complete official election results for the 2020 Presidential General Election as of November 29, 2020. Results are released in three separate reports: The Vote By Mail 1 report contains complete results for ballots received by the Board of Elections on or before October 21, 2020, that could be accepted and opened before Election Day. The Vote By Mail 2 Canvass report contains complete results for all remaining Vote By Mail ballots that were received in a drop box or in person at the Board of Elections by 8:00pm on November 3, or were postmarked by November 3 and received timely by the Board of Elections by 10:00am on Friday, November 13. The Vote By Mail 2 Canvass begins on Thursday, November 5. The Provisional Canvass contains complete results for all provisional ballots issued to voters at Early Voting or on Election Day. For more information on this process, please visit the 2020 Presidential General Election Ballot Canvass webpage at https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/Elections/2020GeneralElection/general-ballot-canvass.html. For turnout information, please visit the Maryland State Board of Elections Press Room webpage at https://elections.maryland.gov/press_room/index.html.

EPILOGUE: https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F360751%2Fa5eefdb31428bd5ce99cdf76fa484a63%2Fmap.jpg?generation=1733007717460285&alt=media" alt="">

FINAL UPDATE: It's election night, and the results are coming in. The final update includes the latest poll data from 538, which is from two days ago. Thanks all for following the development of this dataset.

OCTOBER UPDATE: The past month has been typical of the final weeks before the election - rallies, interviews, and advertising. This update includes a transcript of the VP debate between Walz and Vance, and the latest poll summaries.

SEPTEMBER UPDATE: Trump and Harris had their first debate. This update includes the transcript and recent poll results. Also, there was a second attempt to kill former President Trump! No shots fired though on this one. You'll see aerial diagrams of both attempts in the dataset.

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LATE AUGUST UPDATE: The Democratic Party replaced President Biden with his VP, Kamala Harris. It's now Trump v Harris along with one nominee from each of the smaller factions.

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AUGUST UPDATE: This election season just gets crazier and crazier. You'll see new data related to the assassination attempt on former President Trump. There are transcripts of Secret Service hearings and an annotated image of the rally area.

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JULY UPDATE: Added the transcript of the debate between Trump and Biden.

MAY UPDATE: Added some new polls and also a meta-poll assessing the quality of select pollsters.

APRIL UPDATE : The dataset now contains approval ratings for sitting presidents, which includes Biden and Trump.

MARCH UPDATE: As of last week, the presumptive nominees are Joe Biden(D) and Donald Trump(R). They also ran against each other in 2020. Robert F Kennedy Jr is running as an independent.

Presidential elections occur quadrennially in years evenly divisible by 4, on the first Tuesday after November 1. Presidential candidates from the major political parties usually declare their intentions to run as early as the spring of the previous calendar year before the election. The two major parties each nominate one candidate through a process of primary elections and nominating conventions during the election year. (source: Wikipedia)

This dataset contains data on candidates, primary/caucus results, polls, and debate transcripts. Updates and additional data will be added as the landscape develops.

Note: Version 3 of this dataset contains previous coverage of the 2022 Congressional Mid-term Elections.

In U.S. presidential elections since 1964, voter turnout among male and female voters has changed gradually but significantly, with women consistently voting at a higher rate than men since the 1980 election. 67 percent of eligible female voters took part in the 1964 election, compared to 72 percent of male voters. This difference has been reversed in recent elections, where the share of women who voted has been larger than the share of men by around four percent since 2004.

Description:

This dataset contains comprehensive voting data for the 2024 US elections, focusing on general ballot measures. This information includes voting results from various sources and tracking public opinion about political parties and candidates across states and demographic groups. Each item in the dataset represents a specific poll. Along with detailed information about the dates of the polls. Survey organization, sample size, margin of error, Percentage of respondents supporting each political party or candidates

Key Features:

Poll Date:The date when the poll was conducted.

Polling Organization: The name of the organization that conducted the poll.

Sample Size: The number of respondents in the poll.

Margin of Error: The statistical margin of error for the poll results.

Party/Candidate Support: Percentage of respondents who support each political party or candidate.

State/Demographics: Geographic and demographic breakdowns of the polling data.

Use Cases:

Analyzing trends in public opinion leading up to the 2024 U.S. elections. Comparing support for different political parties and candidates over time. Studying the impact of key events on voter preferences. Informing political strategies and campaign planning.

The current dataset captures voter registration counts and voter 'turnout', or the percentage of registered voters who voted in each election, since 2015. The data is aggregated at various levels including the political precinct (division), political ward, and city-wide and shows results for different elections (primary, general, special). Historical releases of this data prior to 2015 were separate datasets, one for voter turnout and one for voter registration.

PROBLEM AND OPPORTUNITY In the United States, voting is largely a private matter. A registered voter is given a randomized ballot form or machine to prevent linkage between their voting choices and their identity. This disconnect supports confidence in the election process, but it provides obstacles to an election's analysis. A common solution is to field exit polls, interviewing voters immediately after leaving their polling location. This method is rife with bias, however, and functionally limited in direct demographics data collected. For the 2020 general election, though, most states published their election results for each voting location. These publications were additionally supported by the geographical areas assigned to each location, the voting precincts. As a result, geographic processing can now be applied to project precinct election results onto Census block groups. While precinct have few demographic traits directly, their geographies have characteristics that make them projectable onto U.S. Census geographies. Both state voting precincts and U.S. Census block groups: are exclusive, and do not overlap are adjacent, fully covering their corresponding state and potentially county have roughly the same size in area, population and voter presence Analytically, a projection of local demographics does not allow conclusions about voters themselves. However, the dataset does allow statements related to the geographies that yield voting behavior. One could say, for example, that an area dominated by a particular voting pattern would have mean traits of age, race, income or household structure. The dataset that results from this programming provides voting results allocated by Census block groups. The block group identifier can be joined to Census Decennial and American Community Survey demographic estimates. DATA SOURCES The state election results and geographies have been compiled by Voting and Election Science team on Harvard's dataverse. State voting precincts lie within state and county boundaries. The Census Bureau, on the other hand, publishes its estimates across a variety of geographic definitions including a hierarchy of states, counties, census tracts and block groups. Their definitions can be found here. The geometric shapefiles for each block group are available here. The lowest level of this geography changes often and can obsolesce before the next census survey (Decennial or American Community Survey programs). The second to lowest census level, block groups, have the benefit of both granularity and stability however. The 2020 Decennial survey details US demographics into 217,740 block groups with between a few hundred and a few thousand people. Dataset Structure The dataset's columns include: Column Definition BLOCKGROUP_GEOID 12 digit primary key. Census GEOID of the block group row. This code concatenates: 2 digit state 3 digit county within state 6 digit Census Tract identifier 1 digit Census Block Group identifier within tract STATE State abbreviation, redundent with 2 digit state FIPS code above REP Votes for Republican party candidate for president DEM Votes for Democratic party candidate for president LIB Votes for Libertarian party candidate for president OTH Votes for presidential candidates other than Republican, Democratic or Libertarian AREA square kilometers of area associated with this block group GAP total area of the block group, net of area attributed to voting precincts PRECINCTS Number of voting precincts that intersect this block group ASSUMPTIONS, NOTES AND CONCERNS: Votes are attributed based upon the proportion of the precinct's area that intersects the corresponding block group. Alternative methods are left to the analyst's initiative. 50 states and the District of Columbia are in scope as those U.S. possessions voting in the general election for the U.S. Presidency. Three states did not report their results at the precinct level: South Dakota, Kentucky and West Virginia. A dummy block group is added for each of these states to maintain national totals. These states represent 2.1% of all votes cast. Counties are commonly coded using FIPS codes. However, each election result file may have the county field named differently. Also, three states do not share county definitions - Delaware, Massachusetts, Alaska and the District of Columbia. Block groups may be used to capture geographies that do not have population like bodies of water. As a result, block groups without intersection voting precincts are not uncommon. In the U.S., elections are administered at a state level with the Federal Elections Commission compiling state totals against the Electoral College weights. The states have liberty, though, to define and change their own voting precincts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_precinct. The Census Bureau... Visit https://dataone.org/datasets/sha256%3A05707c1dc04a814129f751937a6ea56b08413546b18b351a85bc96da16a7f8b5 for complete metadata about this dataset.

According to exit polling in ten key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, 46 percent of voters with a 2023 household income of 30,000 U.S. dollars or less reported voting for Donald Trump. In comparison, 51 percent of voters with a total family income of 100,000 to 199,999 U.S. dollars reported voting for Kamala Harris.

The product has been discontinued since: 08 Feb 2018.

The number of those who cast a vote or 'turn out' at an election includes those who cast blank or invalid votes. In Belgium, Luxembourg and Greece, voting is compulsory. In Italy, voting is a civic obligation (no penalty). The EU average was estimated by Eurostat on the basis of the trends observed in each of the Member States. The EU average refers to parliamentary elections for all countries, except for Cyprus (only presidential elections), France, Portugal and Romania (both parliamentary and presidential elections).

Some racial and ethnic categories are suppressed to avoid misleading estimates when the relative standard error exceeds 30%. Margins of error are estimated at the 90% confidence level.

Data Source: Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting Supplement, 2020

Why This Matters

Voting is one of the primary ways residents can have their voices heard by the government. By voting for elected officials and on ballot initiatives, residents help decide the future of their community.

For much of our nation’s history, non-white residents were explicitly prohibited from voting or discriminated against in the voting process. It was not until the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that the Federal Government enacted voting rights protections for Black voters and voters of color.

Nationally, BIPOC citizens and especially Hispanic and Asian citizens have consistently lower voter turnout rates and voter registration rates. While local DC efforts have been taken to remove these barriers, restrictive voter ID requirements and the disenfranchisement of incarcerated and returning residents act as institutionally racist barriers to voting in many jurisdictions.

The District's Response

The DC Board of Elections has lowered the barriers to participate in local elections through online voter registration, same day registration, voting by mail, and non-ID proof of residence.

Unlike in many states, incarcerated and returning residents in D.C. never lose the right to vote. Since 2024, DC has also extended the right to vote in local elections to residents of the District who are not citizens of the U.S.

Although DC residents pay federal taxes and can vote in the presidential election, the District does not have full representation in Congress. Efforts to advocate for DC statehood aim to remedy this.

This dataset provides county and congressional district–level returns for U.S. House of Representatives general elections, compiled by Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. For each election year included, the dataset is distributed as an Excel workbook (.xlsx) with multiple worksheets, accompanied by machine-readable CSV files at the county, congressional district, and state levels. The codebook for the data collection, describing variable names and meanings, is provided as an .rtf file.The Excel workbook contains:Candidates – names and party ballot listings by state.Vote Data by State – statewide vote totals for each candidate, with boundary identifiers (FIPS codes).Vote Data by County – county-level vote totals for all states and the District of Columbia, with FIPS codes.Vote Data by Town – town-level results for New England states (ME, MA, CT, RI, VT, NH), with FIPS codes.Vote Data by Congressional District – vote totals for all congressional districts nationwide.Graphs – pie charts summarizing results by state and nationally.Party – statewide vote strength of major parties.Statistics – summary statistics including closest races, maxima, and other aggregate indicators.Voter Turnout by State – voting-age population and turnout data by state.Data Sources – documentation of sources used to compile the dataset.

Election Turnout Results for Presidential Elections in San Mateo County.

This dataset was used to conduct the NYC Campaign Finance Board's voter participation research, published in the 2019-2020 Voter Analysis Report. Each row contains information about an active voter in 2018 and their voting history dating back to 2008, along with geographical information from their place of residence for each year they were registered voters. Because this dataset contains only active voters in the year 2018, this dataset cannot be used to calculate election turnout.

This dataset contains counts of voter registration and voter turnout for all counties in the United States for the years 2004-2022. It also contains measures of each county's Democratic and Republican partisanship, including six-year longitudinal partisan indices for 2006-2022.

Data set accompanying the paper "Electoral closeness and voter turnout in presidential elections" by Philipp Köker and Frederik Springer, published in the journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (JEPOP) at https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2025.2513300

Terms of Access: By downloading the data, you agree to use the data only for academic research, agree not to share the data with outside parties, and agree not to attempt to re-identify individuals in the data set. We require this in order to protect the privacy of individuals in the data set and to comply with agreements made with TargetSmart. Abstract: We present the results of a large, $8.9 million campaign-wide field experiment, conducted among 2 million moderate and low-information “persuadable” voters in five battleground states during the 2020 US Presidential election. Treatment group subjects were exposed to an eight-month-long advertising program delivered via social media, designed to persuade people to vote against Donald Trump and for Joe Biden. We found no evidence the program increased or decreased turnout on average. We find evidence of differential turnout effects by modeled level of Trump support: the campaign increased voting among Biden leaners by 0.4 percentage points (SE: 0.2pp) and decreased voting among Trump leaners by 0.3 percentage points (SE: 0.3pp), for a difference-in-CATES of 0.7 points that is just distinguishable from zero (t(1035571) = −2.09, p = 0.036, DIC = 0.7 points, 95% CI = [−0.014, −0.00]). An important but exploratory finding is that the strongest differential effects appear in early voting data, which may inform future work on early campaigning in a post-COVID electoral environment. Our results indicate that differential mobilization effects of even large digital advertising campaigns in presidential elections are likely to be modest.

This web map displays data from the voter registration database as the percent of registered voters by census tract in King County, Washington. The data for this web map is compiled from King County Elections voter registration data for the years 2013-2019. The total number of registered voters is based on the geo-location of the voter's registered address at the time of the general election for each year. The eligible voting population, age 18 and over, is based on the estimated population increase from the US Census Bureau and the Washington Office of Financial Management and was calculated as a projected 6 percent population increase for the years 2010-2013, 7 percent population increase for the years 2010-2014, 9 percent population increase for the years 2010-2015, 11 percent population increase for the years 2010-2016 & 2017, 14 percent population increase for the years 2010-2018 and 17 percent population increase for the years 2010-2019. The total population 18 and over in 2010 was 1,517,747 in King County, Washington. The percentage of registered voters represents the number of people who are registered to vote as compared to the eligible voting population, age 18 and over. The voter registration data by census tract was grouped into six percentage range estimates: 50% or below, 51-60%, 61-70%, 71-80%, 81-90% and 91% or above with an overall 84 percent registration rate. In the map the lighter colors represent a relatively low percentage range of voter registration and the darker colors represent a relatively high percentage range of voter registration. PDF maps of these data can be viewed at King County Elections downloadable voter registration maps. The 2019 General Election Voter Turnout layer is voter turnout data by historical precinct boundaries for the corresponding year. The data is grouped into six percentage ranges: 0-30%, 31-40%, 41-50% 51-60%, 61-70%, and 71-100%. The lighter colors represent lower turnout and the darker colors represent higher turnout. The King County Demographics Layer is census data for language, income, poverty, race and ethnicity at the census tract level and is based on the 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5 year Average provided by the United States Census Bureau. Since the data is based on a survey, they are considered to be estimates and should be used with that understanding. The demographic data sets were developed and are maintained by King County Staff to support the King County Equity and Social Justice program. Other data for this map is located in the King County GIS Spatial Data Catalog, where data is managed by the King County GIS Center, a multi-department enterprise GIS in King County, Washington. King County has nearly 1.3 million registered voters and is the largest jurisdiction in the United States to conduct all elections by mail. In the map you can view the percent of registered voters by census tract, compare registration within political districts, compare registration and demographic data, verify your voter registration or register to vote through a link to the VoteWA, Washington State Online Voter Registration web page.

Resources with a wide array of statistics on voter turnout from select countries. It contains the most comprehensive global collection of voter turnout statistics from presidential and parliamentary elections.

2020 Detailed Voter Registration and Turnout Data

Details the statistics of the Electoral College vote and popular vote over time in both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Also shows the voting population participation trend over time.