AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press.

AP VoteCast combines interviews with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files with self-identified registered voters selected using nonprobability approaches. In general elections, it also includes interviews with self-identified registered voters conducted using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak® panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.

Interviews are conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents may receive a small monetary incentive for completing the survey. Participants selected as part of the random sample can be contacted by phone and mail and can take the survey by phone or online. Participants selected as part of the nonprobability sample complete the survey online.

In the 2020 general election, the survey of 133,103 interviews with registered voters was conducted between Oct. 26 and Nov. 3, concluding as polls closed on Election Day. AP VoteCast delivered data about the presidential election in all 50 states as well as all Senate and governors’ races in 2020.

Using this Data - IMPORTANT

This is survey data and must be properly weighted during analysis: DO NOT REPORT THIS DATA AS RAW OR AGGREGATE NUMBERS!!

Instead, use statistical software such as R or SPSS to weight the data.

National Survey

The national AP VoteCast survey of voters and nonvoters in 2020 is based on the results of the 50 state-based surveys and a nationally representative survey of 4,141 registered voters conducted between Nov. 1 and Nov. 3 on the probability-based AmeriSpeak panel. It included 41,776 probability interviews completed online and via telephone, and 87,186 nonprobability interviews completed online. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 0.4 percentage points for voters and 0.9 percentage points for nonvoters.

State Surveys

In 20 states in 2020, AP VoteCast is based on roughly 1,000 probability-based interviews conducted online and by phone, and roughly 3,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the margin of sampling error is about plus or minus 2.3 percentage points for voters and 5.5 percentage points for nonvoters.

In an additional 20 states, AP VoteCast is based on roughly 500 probability-based interviews conducted online and by phone, and roughly 2,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the margin of sampling error is about plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for voters and 6.9 percentage points for nonvoters.

In the remaining 10 states, AP VoteCast is based on about 1,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the margin of sampling error is about plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for voters and 11.0 percentage points for nonvoters.

Although there is no statistically agreed upon approach for calculating margins of error for nonprobability samples, these margins of error were estimated using a measure of uncertainty that incorporates the variability associated with the poll estimates, as well as the variability associated with the survey weights as a result of calibration. After calibration, the nonprobability sample yields approximately unbiased estimates.

As with all surveys, AP VoteCast is subject to multiple sources of error, including from sampling, question wording and order, and nonresponse.

Sampling Details

Probability-based Registered Voter Sample

In each of the 40 states in which AP VoteCast included a probability-based sample, NORC obtained a sample of registered voters from Catalist LLC’s registered voter database. This database includes demographic information, as well as addresses and phone numbers for registered voters, allowing potential respondents to be contacted via mail and telephone. The sample is stratified by state, partisanship, and a modeled likelihood to respond to the postcard based on factors such as age, race, gender, voting history, and census block group education. In addition, NORC attempted to match sampled records to a registered voter database maintained by L2, which provided additional phone numbers and demographic information.

Prior to dialing, all probability sample records were mailed a postcard inviting them to complete the survey either online using a unique PIN or via telephone by calling a toll-free number. Postcards were addressed by name to the sampled registered voter if that individual was under age 35; postcards were addressed to “registered voter” in all other cases. Telephone interviews were conducted with the adult that answered the phone following confirmation of registered voter status in the state.

Nonprobability Sample

Nonprobability participants include panelists from Dynata or Lucid, including members of its third-party panels. In addition, some registered voters were selected from the voter file, matched to email addresses by V12, and recruited via an email invitation to the survey. Digital fingerprint software and panel-level ID validation is used to prevent respondents from completing the AP VoteCast survey multiple times.

AmeriSpeak Sample

During the initial recruitment phase of the AmeriSpeak panel, randomly selected U.S. households were sampled with a known, non-zero probability of selection from the NORC National Sample Frame and then contacted by mail, email, telephone and field interviewers (face-to-face). The panel provides sample coverage of approximately 97% of the U.S. household population. Those excluded from the sample include people with P.O. Box-only addresses, some addresses not listed in the U.S. Postal Service Delivery Sequence File and some newly constructed dwellings. Registered voter status was confirmed in field for all sampled panelists.

Weighting Details

AP VoteCast employs a four-step weighting approach that combines the probability sample with the nonprobability sample and refines estimates at a subregional level within each state. In a general election, the 50 state surveys and the AmeriSpeak survey are weighted separately and then combined into a survey representative of voters in all 50 states.

State Surveys

First, weights are constructed separately for the probability sample (when available) and the nonprobability sample for each state survey. These weights are adjusted to population totals to correct for demographic imbalances in age, gender, education and race/ethnicity of the responding sample compared to the population of registered voters in each state. In 2020, the adjustment targets are derived from a combination of data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s November 2018 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement, Catalist’s voter file and the Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey. Prior to adjusting to population totals, the probability-based registered voter list sample weights are adjusted for differential non-response related to factors such as availability of phone numbers, age, race and partisanship.

Second, all respondents receive a calibration weight. The calibration weight is designed to ensure the nonprobability sample is similar to the probability sample in regard to variables that are predictive of vote choice, such as partisanship or direction of the country, which cannot be fully captured through the prior demographic adjustments. The calibration benchmarks are based on regional level estimates from regression models that incorporate all probability and nonprobability cases nationwide.

Third, all respondents in each state are weighted to improve estimates for substate geographic regions. This weight combines the weighted probability (if available) and nonprobability samples, and then uses a small area model to improve the estimate within subregions of a state.

Fourth, the survey results are weighted to the actual vote count following the completion of the election. This weighting is done in 10–30 subregions within each state.

National Survey

In a general election, the national survey is weighted to combine the 50 state surveys with the nationwide AmeriSpeak survey. Each of the state surveys is weighted as described. The AmeriSpeak survey receives a nonresponse-adjusted weight that is then adjusted to national totals for registered voters that in 2020 were derived from the U.S. Census Bureau’s November 2018 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement, the Catalist voter file and the Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey. The state surveys are further adjusted to represent their appropriate proportion of the registered voter population for the country and combined with the AmeriSpeak survey. After all votes are counted, the national data file is adjusted to match the national popular vote for president.

This dataset contains voter registration data in Iowa by month and county starting with January 2000. It identifies the number of voters registered as Democrats, Republicans, other party or no party. Libertarians were reported separately March 2017 through January 2019, and beginning again in January 2023. The dataset also identifies the number of active and inactive voter registrations. Inactive voters are those to whom official mailings have been sent from the county auditor’s office, the notice was returned as undeliverable by the United States Postal Service and the voter has not responded to a follow up confirmation notice. [§48A.37]

In U.S. presidential elections since 1964, voter turnout among male and female voters has changed gradually but significantly, with women consistently voting at a higher rate than men since the 1980 election. 67 percent of eligible female voters took part in the 1964 election, compared to 72 percent of male voters. This difference has been reversed in recent elections, where the share of women who voted has been larger than the share of men by around four percent since 2004.

All registered voters in Oregon

Research suggests that partisans are increasingly avoiding members of the other party—in their choice of neighborhood, social network, even their spouse. Leveraging a national database of voter registration records, we analyze 18 million households in the U.S. We find that three in ten married couples have mismatched party affiliations. We observe the relationship between inter-party marriage and gender, age, and geography. We discuss how the findings bear on key questions of political behavior in the US. Then, we test whether mixed-partisan couples participate less actively in politics. We find that voter turnout is correlated with the party of one’s spouse. A partisan who is married to a co-partisan is more likely to vote. This phenomenon is especially pronounced for partisans in closed primaries, elections in which non-partisan registered spouses are ineligible to participate.

Under this agreement the American Association of Motor Vehicles (AAMVA) will provide connectivity, billing services, and staff a help desk to the MVAs of States, District of Columbia, and territories of the US, for SSA. SSA will, through AAMVA's network, provide verification of certain voter registration information to the State MVAs for their use in the registration of voters for elections for Federal office. SSA is providing the verified information in accordance with the Help America Vote Act of 2002.

This data is the Election Precincts with portions throughout Pierce County. It is used to determine voting precincts for registered voters in Pierce County. Please read metadata for additional information (https://matterhorn.co.pierce.wa.us/GISmetadata/pdbaudit_election_precinct_portions.html). Any data download constitutes acceptance of the Terms of Use (https://matterhorn.co.pierce.wa.us/Disclaimer/PierceCountyGISDataTermsofUse.pdf).

Governments may have the capacity to flood social media with fake news, but little is known about the use of flooding by ordinary voters. In this work, we identify 2107 registered US voters that account for 80% of the fake news shared on Twitter during the 2020 US presidential election by an entire panel of 664,391 voters. We find that supersharers are important members of the network, reaching a sizable 5.2% of registered voters on the platform. Supersharers have a significant overrepresentation of women, older adults, and registered Republicans. Supersharers' massive volume does not seem automated but is rather generated through manual and persistent retweeting. These findings highlight a vulnerability of social media for democracy, where a small group of people distort the political reality for many., This dataset contains aggregated information necessary to replicate the results reported in our work on Supersharers of Fake News on Twitter while respecting and preserving the privacy expectations of individuals included in the analysis. No individual-level data is provided as part of this dataset. The data collection process that enabled the creation of this dataset leveraged a large-scale panel of registered U.S. voters matched to Twitter accounts. We examined the activity of 664,391 panel members who were active on Twitter during the months of the 2020 U.S. presidential election (August to November 2020, inclusive), and identified a subset of 2,107 supersharers, which are the most prolific sharers of fake news in the panel that together account for 80% of fake news content shared on the platform. We rely on a source-level definition of fake news, that uses the manually-labeled list of fake news sites by Grinberg et al. 2019 and an updated list based on NewsGuard ratings (commercial..., , # Supersharers of Fake News on Twitter

This repository contains data and code for replication of the results presented in the paper.

The folders are mostly organized by research questions as detailed below. Each folder contains the code and publicly available data necessary for the replication of results. Importantly, no individual-level data is provided as part of this repository. De-identified individual-level data can be attained for IRB-approved uses under the terms and conditions specified in the paper. Once access is granted, the restricted-access data is expected to be located under ./restricted_data.

The folders in this repository are the following:

Preprocessing

Code under the preprocessing folder contains the following:

1. source classifier - the code used to train a classifier based on NewsGuard domain flags to match the fake news labels source definition use in Grinberg et el. 2019 labels.
2. political classifier - the code used to identify political tweets, i...

This dataset captures how many voter registration applications each agency has distributed, how many applications agency staff sent to the Board of Elections, how many staff each agency trained to distribute voter registration applications, whether or not the agency hosts a link to voting.nyc on its website and if so, how many clicks that link received during the reporting period.

This dataset contains voter registration data by month and county starting with January 2000. It identifies the number of voters registered as Democrats, Republicans, other party or no party. It also identifies the number of active and inactive voter registrations. Inactive voters are those to whom official mailings have been sent from the county auditor s office, the notice was returned as undeliverable by the United States Postal Service and the voter has not responded to a follow up confirmation notice. [ 48A.37]

National and state turnout rates for the voting-eligible population in US election

This dataset represents the results of the 4-digit match performed using the Social Security - Help America Vote Verification (HAVV) system.

The MSB received Precinct lines and boundary descriptions from the Alaska Division of Elections. GIS interpreted these lines to fit the higher-resolution GIS data layers. This step is important to show relative data layers (roads, rivers, schools, etc.). The Clerk used this information to determine which Assembly District individual registered voters fall within. The state sends a file of house ranges per precinct, and the Borough Clerk refines this list by Assembly District. The goal is for every voter to know which precinct, polling place, and Assembly District they live within and to receive the appropriate ballot at election time.

Based on the dataset https://data.ramseycounty.us/Civic-Engagement/Voter-Registration-Count-By-Precinct-And-District-/8ykt-7qtm

Rows from the year 2021 only.

Results for the Massachusetts U.S. Senate Special Election Poll are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 589 Massachusetts registered voters. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (n=411) and cell phone (n=178). The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications (RKM). Interviews were conducted in English, March 2-5, 2013. The survey was administered using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system. The CATI system allows data to be entered directly into a computerized database as interviews are conducted. A central polling facility in Portsmouth, New Hampshire was used to administer the survey. All interviews were conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised interviewers.

Replication data for the list of curating actors used in this work.