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Replication Data for: A Regression Analysis of the probability of a...
- dataverse.harvard.edu
Updated Jul 22, 2020
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EmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCitePranav Krishnan; Yash Patel (2020). Replication Data for: A Regression Analysis of the probability of a recession and student loan debt utilizing data between 1993-2019 [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/WNNWCOCroissantCroissant is a format for machine-learning datasets. Learn more about this at mlcommons.org/croissant.Unique identifierhttps://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/WNNWCODataset updatedJul 22, 2020Dataset provided byHarvard DataverseAuthorsPranav Krishnan; Yash PatelLicenseCC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedicationhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
License information was derived automaticallyDescriptionOver 44.7 million Americans carry student loan debt, with the total amount valued at approximately $1.31 trillion (Quarterly Report, 2019). Ergo, consumer spending, a factor of GDP, is stifled and negatively impacts the economy (Frizell, 2014, p. 22). This study examined the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of a recession in the near future, as well as the effects of proposed student loan forgiveness policies through the use of a created model. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s website (FRED) was used to extract data regarding total GDP per quarter and student loan debt per quarter ("Federal Reserve Economic Data," 2019). Through the combination of the student loan debt per quarter and total GDP per quarter datasets, the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter was calculated and fitted to a logistic curve. Future quarterly values for total GDP and the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter were found through Long Short Term Models and Euler’s Method, respectively. Through the creation of a probability of recession index, the probability of recession per quarter was compared to the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter to construct an exponential regression model. Utilizing a primarily quantitative method of analysis, the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter was found to be strongly associated[p < 1.26696* 10-8]with the probability of recession per quarter(p(R)), with the p(R) tending to peak as the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter strayed away from the carrying capacity of the logistic curve. Inputting the student loan debt forgiveness policies of potential congressional bills proposed by lawmakers found that eliminating 49.7 % and 36.7% of student loan debt would reduce the recession probabilities to be 1.73545*10-29% and 9.74474*10-25%, respectively.
United States Household Debt
- ceicdata.com
Updated Feb 27, 2025ShareFacebookTwitterEmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCiteCEICdata.com (2025). United States Household Debt [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/household-debtDataset updatedFeb 27, 2025Dataset provided byCEIC DataLicenseAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automaticallyTime period coveredMar 1, 2022 - Dec 1, 2024Area coveredUnited StatesDescriptionKey information about United States Household Debt
- United States Household Debt reached 18,036.0 USD bn in Dec 2024, compared with the reported number of 17,943.0 USD bn in the previous quarter
- US Household Debt: USD mn data is updated quarterly, available from Mar 1999 to Dec 2024
- The data reached an all-time high of 18,036.0 USD bn in Dec 2024 and a record low of 4,540.0 USD bn in Mar 1999
Federal Reserve Board of New York provides quarterly Household Debt in USD. Household Debt includes Mortgages, Home Equity Revolving, Auto Loans, Bankcards, Student Loans and Others.
Further information about United States Household Debt- In the latest reports, United States Household Debt accounted for 61.7 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Dec 2024
- Money Supply M2 in United States increased 21,533.8 USD bn YoY in Dec 2024
- United States Foreign Exchange Reserves was measured at 34.9 USD bn in Dec 2024
- The Foreign Exchange Reserves equaled 0.1 Months of Import in Dec 2024
- United States Domestic Credit reached 30,648.3 USD bn in Mar 2024, representing an drop of 0.3 % YoY
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FacebookTwitterEmailReplication Data for: A Regression Analysis of the probability of a recession and student loan debt utilizing data between 1993-2019
CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedicationhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
License information was derived automatically
Over 44.7 million Americans carry student loan debt, with the total amount valued at approximately $1.31 trillion (Quarterly Report, 2019). Ergo, consumer spending, a factor of GDP, is stifled and negatively impacts the economy (Frizell, 2014, p. 22). This study examined the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of a recession in the near future, as well as the effects of proposed student loan forgiveness policies through the use of a created model. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s website (FRED) was used to extract data regarding total GDP per quarter and student loan debt per quarter ("Federal Reserve Economic Data," 2019). Through the combination of the student loan debt per quarter and total GDP per quarter datasets, the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter was calculated and fitted to a logistic curve. Future quarterly values for total GDP and the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter were found through Long Short Term Models and Euler’s Method, respectively. Through the creation of a probability of recession index, the probability of recession per quarter was compared to the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter to construct an exponential regression model. Utilizing a primarily quantitative method of analysis, the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter was found to be strongly associated[p < 1.26696* 10-8]with the probability of recession per quarter(p(R)), with the p(R) tending to peak as the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter strayed away from the carrying capacity of the logistic curve. Inputting the student loan debt forgiveness policies of potential congressional bills proposed by lawmakers found that eliminating 49.7 % and 36.7% of student loan debt would reduce the recession probabilities to be 1.73545*10-29% and 9.74474*10-25%, respectively.