In March 2025, inflation amounted to 2.4 percent, while wages grew by 4.3 percent. The inflation rate has not exceeded the rate of wage growth since January 2023. Inflation in 2022 The high rates of inflation in 2022 meant that the real terms value of American wages took a hit. Many Americans report feelings of concern over the economy and a worsening of their financial situation. The inflation situation in the United States is one that was experienced globally in 2022, mainly due to COVID-19 related supply chain constraints and disruption due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The monthly inflation rate for the U.S. reached a 40-year high in June 2022 at 9.1 percent, and annual inflation for 2022 reached eight percent. Without appropriate wage increases, Americans will continue to see a decline in their purchasing power. Wages in the U.S. Despite the level of wage growth reaching 6.7 percent in the summer of 2022, it has not been enough to curb the impact of even higher inflation rates. The federally mandated minimum wage in the United States has not increased since 2009, meaning that individuals working minimum wage jobs have taken a real terms pay cut for the last twelve years. There are discrepancies between states - the minimum wage in California can be as high as 15.50 U.S. dollars per hour, while a business in Oklahoma may be as low as two U.S. dollars per hour. However, even the higher wage rates in states like California and Washington may be lacking - one analysis found that if minimum wage had kept up with productivity, the minimum hourly wage in the U.S. should have been 22.88 dollars per hour in 2021. Additionally, the impact of decreased purchasing power due to inflation will impact different parts of society in different ways with stark contrast in average wages due to both gender and race.

When adjusted for inflation, the 2024 federal minimum wage in the United States is over 40 percent lower than the minimum wage in 1970. Although the real dollar minimum wage in 1970 was only 1.60 U.S. dollars, when expressed in nominal 2024 dollars this increases to 13.05 U.S. dollars. This is a significant difference from the federal minimum wage in 2024 of 7.25 U.S. dollars.

Graph and download economic data for Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private (CES0500000003) from Mar 2006 to Sep 2025 about earnings, average, establishment survey, hours, wages, private, employment, and USA.

Replication files for "Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation" Authors: Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi Review of Economics and Statistics Date: February 2, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORDERS OF TOPICS .Section 1. We explain the code to replicate all the figures in the paper (except Figure 6) .Section 2. We explain how Figure 6 is constructed .Section 3. We explain how the data are constructed SECTION 1 Replication_Main.m is used to reproduce all the figures of the paper except Figure 6. All the primitive variables are defined in the code and all the steps are commented in code to facilitate the replication of our results. Replication_Main.m, should be run in Matlab. The authors tested it on a DELL XPS 15 7590 laptop wih the follwoing characteristics: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Processor Intel(R) Core(TM) i9-9980HK CPU @ 2.40GHz 2.40 GHz Installed RAM 64.0 GB System type 64-bit operating system, x64-based processor -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It took 2 minutes and 57 seconds for this machine to construct Figures 1, 2, 3, 4a, 4b, 5, 7a, and 7b. The following version of Matlab and Matlab toolboxes has been used for the test: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MATLAB Version: 9.7.0.1190202 (R2019b) MATLAB License Number: 363305 Operating System: Microsoft Windows 10 Enterprise Version 10.0 (Build 19045) Java Version: Java 1.8.0_202-b08 with Oracle Corporation Java HotSpot(TM) 64-Bit Server VM mixed mode -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MATLAB Version 9.7 (R2019b) Financial Toolbox Version 5.14 (R2019b) Optimization Toolbox Version 8.4 (R2019b) Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox Version 11.6 (R2019b) Symbolic Math Toolbox Version 8.4 (R2019b) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The replication code uses auxiliary files and save the pictures in various subfolders: \JL_models: It contains the equations describing the model including the observation equations and routine used to solve the model. To do so, the routine in this folder calls other routines located in some fo the subfolders below. \gensystoama: It contains a set of codes that allow us to solve linear rational expectations models. We use the AMA solver. More information are provided in the file AMASOLVE.m. The codes in this subfolder have been developed by Alejandro Justiniano. \filters: it contains the Kalman filter augmented with a routine to make sure that the zero lower bound constraint for the nominal interest rate is satisfied in every period in our sample. \SteadyStateSolver: It contains a set of routines that are used to solved the steady state of the model numerically. \NLEquations: It contains some of the equations of the model that are log-linearized using the symbolic toolbox of matlab. \NberDates: It contains a set of routines that allows to add shaded area to graphs to denote NBER recessions. \Graphics: It contains useful codes enabling features to construct some of the graphs in the paper. \Data: it contains the data set used in the paper. \Params: It contains a spreadsheet with the values attributes to the model parameters. \VAR_Estimation: It contains the forecasts implied by the Bayesian VAR model of Section 2. The output of Replication_Main.m are the figures of the paper that are stored in the subfolder \Figures SECTION 2 The Excel file "Figure-6.xlsx" is used to create the charts in Figure 6. All three panels of the charts (A, B, and C) plot a measure of unexpected wage inflation against the unemployment rate, then fits separate linear regressions for the periods 1960-1985,1986-2007, and 2008-2009. Unexpected wage inflation is given by the difference between wage growth and a measure of expected wage growth. In all three panels, the unemployment rate used is the civilian unemployment rate (UNRATE), seasonally adjusted, from the BLS. The sheet "Panel A" uses quarterly manufacturing sector average hourly earnings growth data, seasonally adjusted (CES3000000008), from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report as the measure of wage inflation. The unexpected wage inflation is given by the difference between earnings growth at time t and the average of earnings growth across the previous four months. Growth rates are annualized quarterly values. The sheet "Panel B" uses quarterly Nonfarm Business Sector Compensation Per Hour, seasonally adjusted (COMPNFB), from the BLS Productivity and Costs report as its measure of wage inflation. As in Panel A, expected wage inflation is given by the... Visit https://dataone.org/datasets/sha256%3A44c88fe82380bfff217866cac93f85483766eb9364f66cfa03f1ebdaa0408335 for complete metadata about this dataset.

Introduction This note summarises trends in pay in London and the UK since 2010 and compares them to inflation trends. The focus is on median gross weekly earnings for all employees (full- and part-time) working in London. The counterfactual analysis is based on annual pay estimates. Notes on the data The employee pay estimates in this note do not cover self-employed jobs and come from a survey of UK businesses. There are, moreover, several discontinuities in the ONS ASHE series (e.g. in 2004, 2006, 2011 and 2021). The growth rates calculated over these periods are illustrative, not precise figures. During the pandemic earnings estimates were affected by compositional changes and the furlough scheme, making interpretation more difficult. Data collection disruption and lower response rates also mean that estimates for 2020 and 2021 are subject to greater uncertainty. Real earnings (earnings adjusted for inflation) have been calculated by adjusting nominal (unadjusted) earnings using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH). The CPIH is the most comprehensive measure of inflation in the UK.

In April 2026, the UK minimum wage for adults over the age of 21 will be 12.71 pounds per hour. For the 2026/27 financial year, there are four minimum wage categories, three of which are based on age and one for apprentice workers. Apprentices, and workers under the age of 18 will have a minimum wage of eight pounds an hour, increasing to 10.85 pounds for those aged 18 to 20. When the minimum wage was first introduced in 1999, there were just two age categories; 18 to 21, and 22 and over. This increased to three categories in 2004, four in 2010, and five between 2016 and 2023, before being reduced down to four in the most recent year. The living wage The living wage is an alternative minimum wage amount that employers in the UK can voluntarily pay their employees. It is calculated independently of the legal minimum wage and results in a higher value figure. In 2023/24, for example, the living wage was twelve pounds an hour for the UK as a whole and 13.15 for workers in London, where the cost of living is typically higher. This living wage is different from what the UK government has named the national living wage, which was 10.42 in the same financial year. Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, the living wage has increased by 4.80 pounds, while the London living wage has grown by 4.85 pounds. Wage growth cancelled-out by high inflation 2021-2023 For a long period between the middle of 2021 and late 2023, average wage growth in the UK was unable to keep up with record inflation levels, resulting in the biggest fall in disposable income since 1956. Although the UK government attempted to mitigate the impact of falling living standards through a series of cost of living payments, the situation has still been very difficult for households. After peaking at 11.1 percent in October 2022, the UK's inflation rate remained in double figures until March 2023, and did not fall to the preferred rate of two percent until May 2024. As of November 2024, regular weekly pay in the UK was growing by 5.6 percent in nominal terms, and 2.5 percent when adjusted for inflation.

We study the cyclical comovement nominal wage growth (either monthly earnings or hourly wage rate) and labor market flows. We use microdata from the Survey of Income and Program Participation over 1996-2013 to purge composition effects in worker and job characteristics and to isolate the reallocative effect of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions. We find an "EE wage Phillips curve": wage inflation comoves positively with EE as strongly as with the employment rate. This correlation holds for job stayers; we interpret the EE rate as a measure of labor demand. We find no analogous evidence for the job-finding rate from unemployment.