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    Optimal in-sample prediction results.

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    • plos.figshare.com
    xls
    Updated Jul 31, 2024
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    Cheng Wang; Mengnan Xu; Zheng Wang; Wenjing Sun (2024). Optimal in-sample prediction results. [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0305523.t003
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    xlsAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 31, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    PLOS ONE
    Authors
    Cheng Wang; Mengnan Xu; Zheng Wang; Wenjing Sun
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    In this paper, we introduce the mixed-frequency data model (MIDAS) to China’s insurance demand forecasting. We select the monthly indicators Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), Consumer Price Index (PPI), and quarterly indicator Depth of Insurance (TID) to construct a Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression model, which is used to study the impact and forecasting effect of CCI, EPU, and PPI on China’s insurance demand. To ensure forecasting accuracy, we investigate the forecasting effects of the MIDAS models with different weighting functions, forecasting windows, and a combination of forecasting methods, and use the selected optimal MIDAS models to forecast the short-term insurance demand in China. The experimental results show that the MIDAS model has good forecasting performance, especially in short-term forecasting. Rolling window and recursive identification prediction can improve the prediction accuracy, and the combination prediction makes the results more robust. Consumer confidence is the main factor influencing the demand for insurance during the COVID-19 period, and the demand for insurance is most sensitive to changes in consumer confidence. Shortly, China’s insurance demand is expected to return to the pre-COVID-19 level by 2023Q2, showing positive development. The findings of the study provide new ideas for China’s insurance policymaking.

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Share
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TwitterTwitter
Email
Click to copy link
Link copied
Close
Cite
Cheng Wang; Mengnan Xu; Zheng Wang; Wenjing Sun (2024). Optimal in-sample prediction results. [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0305523.t003

Optimal in-sample prediction results.

Related Article
Explore at:
xlsAvailable download formats
Dataset updated
Jul 31, 2024
Dataset provided by
PLOS ONE
Authors
Cheng Wang; Mengnan Xu; Zheng Wang; Wenjing Sun
License

Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically

Description

In this paper, we introduce the mixed-frequency data model (MIDAS) to China’s insurance demand forecasting. We select the monthly indicators Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), Consumer Price Index (PPI), and quarterly indicator Depth of Insurance (TID) to construct a Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression model, which is used to study the impact and forecasting effect of CCI, EPU, and PPI on China’s insurance demand. To ensure forecasting accuracy, we investigate the forecasting effects of the MIDAS models with different weighting functions, forecasting windows, and a combination of forecasting methods, and use the selected optimal MIDAS models to forecast the short-term insurance demand in China. The experimental results show that the MIDAS model has good forecasting performance, especially in short-term forecasting. Rolling window and recursive identification prediction can improve the prediction accuracy, and the combination prediction makes the results more robust. Consumer confidence is the main factor influencing the demand for insurance during the COVID-19 period, and the demand for insurance is most sensitive to changes in consumer confidence. Shortly, China’s insurance demand is expected to return to the pre-COVID-19 level by 2023Q2, showing positive development. The findings of the study provide new ideas for China’s insurance policymaking.

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