Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.
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Historical chart and dataset showing World population growth rate by year from 1961 to 2023.
The world's population first reached one billion people in 1803, and reach eight billion in 2023, and will peak at almost 11 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two thirds of the world's population live in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a decade later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.
According to latest figures, the Chinese population decreased by 1.39 million to around 1.408 billion people in 2024. After decades of rapid growth, China arrived at the turning point of its demographic development in 2022, which was earlier than expected. The annual population decrease is estimated to remain at moderate levels until around 2030 but to accelerate thereafter. Population development in China China had for a long time been the country with the largest population worldwide, but according to UN estimates, it has been overtaken by India in 2023. As the population in India is still growing, the country is very likely to remain being home of the largest population on earth in the near future. Due to several mechanisms put into place by the Chinese government as well as changing circumstances in the working and social environment of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades, displaying an annual population growth rate of -0.1 percent in 2024. Nevertheless, compared to the world population in total, China held a share of about 17 percent of the overall global population in 2024. China's aging population In terms of demographic developments, the birth control efforts of the Chinese government had considerable effects on the demographic pyramid in China. Upon closer examination of the age distribution, a clear trend of an aging population becomes visible. In order to curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government abolished the one-child policy in 2015, which had been in effect since 1979, and introduced a three-child policy in May 2021. However, many Chinese parents nowadays are reluctant to have a second or third child, as is the case in most of the developed countries in the world. The number of births in China varied in the years following the abolishment of the one-child policy, but did not increase considerably. Among the reasons most prominent for parents not having more children are the rising living costs and costs for child care, growing work pressure, a growing trend towards self-realization and individualism, and changing social behaviors.
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This dataset provides a comprehensive overview of global population trends, historical data, and future projections. It includes detailed information for various countries and regions, encompassing key demographic indicators such as population size, growth rates, and density.
The dataset covers a broad time span, from 1980 to 2050, allowing for analysis of long-term population dynamics. It incorporates data from reputable sources like the United Nations Population Division and World Population Review, ensuring data accuracy and reliability.
Hong Kong’s population grew from around **** million in 1980 to around **** million at the end of 2024. Despite a slight decrease in population in 2020 and 2021, the population in Hong Kong has continued to increase. Population development in Hong Kong The population increase was not only due to natural population growth but also related to a significant inflow of immigrants from mainland China. As most immigrants were comparatively young, they also contributed to a higher birth rate. The total fertility rate in Hong Kong, however, which denotes the average number of children a woman has during her lifetime, already fell below the replacement level of around *** children per woman in 1980. Today, Hong Kong has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Nevertheless, the population of Hong Kong is still projected to continue growing due to immigration and reach *** million people in 2046. Age structure of Hong Kong’s population Hong Kong has a rapidly aging society. The median age of the population has more than doubled from **** years in 1970 to **** years in 2020, and it is expected to reach nearly ** years in 2060. Today, around two-thirds of the population is still in their working age, but the share of people aged 65 or older is increasing. Hong Kong has one of the highest life expectancies in the world, reaching around ** years for women in 2024.
The Global Population Count Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) data set. The grids were created by using rates of population change between decades from the coarser resolution History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) database to back-cast the GRUMPv1 population count grids. Mismatches between the spatial extent of the HYDE calculated rates and GRUMPv1 population data were resolved via infilling rate cells based on a focal mean of values. Finally, the grids were adjusted so that the population totals for each country equaled the UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision) estimates for that country for the respective year (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). These data do not represent census observations for the years prior to 2000, and therefore can at best be thought of as estimations of the populations in given locations. The population grids are consistent internally within the time series, but are not recommended for use in creating longer time series with any other population grids, including GRUMPv1, Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4), or non-SEDAC developed population grids. These population grids served as an input to SEDAC's Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000 data set.
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IPUMS-International is an effort to inventory, preserve, harmonize, and disseminate census microdata from around the world. The project has collected the world's largest archive of publicly available census samples. The data are coded and documented consistently across countries and over time to facillitate comparative research. IPUMS-International makes these data available to qualified researchers free of charge through a web dissemination system.
The IPUMS project is a collaboration of the Minnesota Population Center, National Statistical Offices, and international data archives. Major funding is provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Demographic and Behavioral Sciences Branch of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Additional support is provided by the University of Minnesota Office of the Vice President for Research, the Minnesota Population Center, and Sun Microsystems.
National coverage
Households and Group Quarters
UNITS IDENTIFIED: - Dwellings: No - Vacant units: Yes - Households: Yes - Individuals: Yes - Group quarters: Yes
UNIT DESCRIPTIONS: - Households: Dwelling places with fewer than ten persons unrelated to a household head, excluding institutions and transient quarters. - Group quarters: Institutions, transient quarters, and dwelling places with ten or more persons unrelated to a household head.
Residents of the 50 states (not the outlying areas).
Census/enumeration data [cen]
MICRODATA SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
SAMPLE UNIT: Household
SAMPLE FRACTION: 5%
SAMPLE SIZE (person records): 11,343,120
Face-to-face [f2f]
The 1980 census employed a single long form questionnaire completed by one-half of housing units in places with a population under 2,500 and one-sixth of other housing units.
UNDERCOUNT: No official estimates
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Original and derived data products referenced in the original manuscript are provided in the data package.
Original data:
Table_1_source_papers.csv
: Papers that met review criteria and which are summarized in Table 1 of the manuscript.
Derived data:
change_livestock_country.csv:
A dataframe containing values used to generate Figure 4a in the manuscript.
country_avg_schist_wormy_world.csv
: A dataframe containing values used to generate Figure 3 in the manuscript.
kenya_precip_change_1951_2020.csv
: A dataframe containing values used to generate Figure 4b in the manuscript.
Data were derived from the following sources:
Ogutu, J. O., Piepho, H.-P., Said, M. Y., Ojwang, G. O., Njino, L. W., Kifugo, S. C., & Wargute, P. W. (2016). Extreme wildlife declines and concurrent increase in livestock numbers in Kenya: What are the causes? PloS ONE, 11(9), e0163249. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163249
London Applied & Spatial Epidemiology Research Group (LASER). (2023). Global Atlas of Helminth Infections: STH and Schistosomiasis [dataset]. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. https://lshtm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=2e1bc70731114537a8504e3260b6fbc0
World Bank Group. (2023). Climate Data & Projections—Kenya. Climate Change Knowledge Portal. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/kenya/climate-data-projections
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Total population (in millions) by country, 1980 to 2010. Compiled by Energy Information Administration (EIA).
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This is a hybrid gridded dataset of demographic data for the world, given as 5-year population bands at a 0.5 degree grid resolution.
This dataset combines the NASA SEDAC Gridded Population of the World version 4 (GPWv4) with the ISIMIP Histsoc gridded population data and the United Nations World Population Program (WPP) demographic modelling data.
Demographic fractions are given for the time period covered by the UN WPP model (1950-2050) while demographic totals are given for the time period covered by the combination of GPWv4 and Histsoc (1950-2020)
Method - demographic fractions
Demographic breakdown of country population by grid cell is calculated by combining the GPWv4 demographic data given for 2010 with the yearly country breakdowns from the UN WPP. This combines the spatial distribution of demographics from GPWv4 with the temporal trends from the UN WPP. This makes it possible to calculate exposure trends from 1980 to the present day.
To combine the UN WPP demographics with the GPWv4 demographics, we calculate for each country the proportional change in fraction of demographic in each age band relative to 2010 as:
\(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}} = f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}/f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\)
Where:
- \(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the ratio of change in demographic for a given age and and country from the UN WPP dataset.
- \(f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country, and year.
- \(f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country for the year 2020.
The gridded demographic fraction is then calculated relative to the 2010 demographic data given by GPWv4.
For each subset of cells corresponding to a given country c, the fraction of population in a given age band is calculated as:
\(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}} = \delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}*f_{2010,c,\text{age}}^{\text{gpw}}\)
Where:
- \(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}\) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for given year, for the grid cell c.
- \(f_{2010,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}\) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for 2010, for the grid cell c.
The matching between grid cells and country codes is performed using the GPWv4 gridded country code lookup data and country name lookup table. The final dataset is assembled by combining the cells from all countries into a single gridded time series. This time series covers the whole period from 1950-2050, corresponding to the data available in the UN WPP model.
Method - demographic totals
Total population data from 1950 to 1999 is drawn from ISIMIP Histsoc, while data from 2000-2020 is drawn from GPWv4. These two gridded time series are simply joined at the cut-over date to give a single dataset covering 1950-2020.
The total population per age band per cell is calculated by multiplying the population fractions by the population totals per grid cell.
Note that as the total population data only covers until 2020, the time span covered by the demographic population totals data is 1950-2020 (not 1950-2050).
Disclaimer
This dataset is a hybrid of different datasets with independent methodologies. No guarantees are made about the spatial or temporal consistency across dataset boundaries. The dataset may contain outlier points (e.g single cells with demographic fractions >1). This dataset is produced on a 'best effort' basis and has been found to be broadly consistent with other approaches, but may contain inconsistencies which not been identified.
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<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>
<li>India population growth rate for 2022 was <strong>0.79%</strong>, a <strong>0.03% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
<li>India population growth rate for 2021 was <strong>0.82%</strong>, a <strong>0.15% decline</strong> from 2020.</li>
<li>India population growth rate for 2020 was <strong>0.97%</strong>, a <strong>0.07% decline</strong> from 2019.</li>
</ul>Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.
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Graph and download economic data for Population, Total for United States (POPTOTUSA647NWDB) from 1960 to 2024 about population and USA.
Midyear population estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world with a population of 5,000 or more // Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center// Note: Total population available from 1950 to 2100 for 227 countries and areas. Other demographic variables available from base year to 2100. Base year varies by country and therefore data are not available for all years for all countries. For the United States, total population available from 1950-2060, and other demographic variables available from 1980-2060. See methodology at https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/idb.html
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<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>
<li>Total population for China in 2024 was <strong>1,425,178,782</strong>, a <strong>1.03% increase</strong> from 2023.</li>
<li>Total population for China in 2023 was <strong>1,410,710,000</strong>, a <strong>0.1% decline</strong> from 2022.</li>
<li>Total population for China in 2022 was <strong>1,412,175,000</strong>, a <strong>0.01% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
</ul>Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates.
IPUMS-International is an effort to inventory, preserve, harmonize, and disseminate census microdata from around the world. The project has collected the world's largest archive of publicly available census samples. The data are coded and documented consistently across countries and over time to facillitate comparative research. IPUMS-International makes these data available to qualified researchers free of charge through a web dissemination system.
The IPUMS project is a collaboration of the Minnesota Population Center, National Statistical Offices, and international data archives. Major funding is provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Demographic and Behavioral Sciences Branch of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Additional support is provided by the University of Minnesota Office of the Vice President for Research, the Minnesota Population Center, and Sun Microsystems.
National coverage
UNITS IDENTIFIED: - Dwellings: Yes - Vacant units: Yes - Households: Yes - Individuals: Yes - Group quarters: Yes - Special populations: No
UNIT DESCRIPTIONS: - Dwellings: Architecturally connected units (living-, cooking-, hygienic- etc. rooms) built originally or transformed later for residential purposes and having\ direct access from outside (i.e. from a street). - Households: A group of persons living together in a common housing unit or in a part of it, sharing the costs of living partly or totally, and having their meals together on one or more days of the week.
Resident population in private and collective living quarters
Census/enumeration data [cen]
MICRODATA SOURCE: Hungarian Central Statistical Office
SAMPLE DESIGN: Systematic sample of every 20th dwelling after a random start; drawn by the national statistical office
SAMPLE UNIT: Housing unit (dwelling)
SAMPLE FRACTION: 5%
SAMPLE SIZE (person records): 536,007
Face-to-face [f2f]
Housing questionnaire; questionnaire for group quarters; questionnaire on holiday-home units; personal questionnaire; housing questionnaire and personal questionnaire for subsequent checking (PES)
https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/7955/termshttps://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/7955/terms
Preparation of this data collection was funded by grant
Services, Administration on Aging. Estimates of the population of persons 60 years old and older were received from the Census Bureau in printed form and were made machine-readable by staff at ICPSR. Other variables contained in this dataset were merged from existing machine-readable census files. The data concerning racial composition of counties were taken from the CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING, 1980 [UNITED STATES]: P.L. 94-171 POPULATION COUNTS (ICPSR 7854). The figures concerning per capita income were taken from the Bureau of the Census, GENERAL REVENUE SHARING, 1978 POPULATION ESTIMATES (ICPSR 7840). Variables include Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) state and county codes, 1978 per capita income of county, and total population of county broken down by sex, race, and age (in four-year increments with a category for persons 75 years old and older).
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Historical chart and dataset showing total population for Japan by year from 1950 to 2025.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
IPUMS-International is an effort to inventory, preserve, harmonize, and disseminate census microdata from around the world. The project has collected the world's largest archive of publicly available census samples. The data are coded and documented consistently across countries and over time to facillitate comparative research. IPUMS-International makes these data available to qualified researchers free of charge through a web dissemination system. The IPUMS project is a collaboration of the Minnesota Population Center, National Statistical Offices, and international data archives. Major funding is provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Demographic and Behavioral Sciences Branch of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Additional support is provided by the University of Minnesota Office of the Vice President for Research, the Minnesota Population Center, and Sun Microsystems.
Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.