As of 2023, Australia's net overseas migration was 152.2 thousand people. In 2020 and 2021, net migration in Australia reduced drastically due to travel restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Net migration increased to over 400 thousand people once restrictions were eased in 2022.

Australia Net Migration data was reported at 138,510.000 Person in 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 140,232.000 Person for 2023. Australia Net Migration data is updated yearly, averaging 108,852.000 Person from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2024, with 65 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 275,773.000 Person in 2008 and a record low of 23,833.000 Person in 1993. Australia Net Migration data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Net migration is the net total of migrants during the period, that is, the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens.;United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2024 Revision.;Sum;

While the European colonization and settlement of other world regions largely began in the 16th and 17th centuries, it was not until the 19th century when the largest waves of migration began to take place. In early years, migration rates were comparatively low; in all of the Americas, the slave population actually outnumbered that of Europeans for most of the given period. Then, with the development of steam ships, intercontinental travel became more affordable and accessible to the masses, and voluntary migration from Europe rose significantly. Additionally, larger numbers of Asian migrants, especially from India and China, migrated to Australia, the Caribbean, and U.S. from the mid-1800s; although the U.S. and Australia both introduced policies that limited or prevented Asian immigration throughout most of the early 1900s. International migration between 1913 and 1950 was also comparatively low due to the tumultuous nature of the period, which involved both World Wars and the Great Depression.

Historical dataset showing Australia immigration statistics by year from 1960 to 2015.

This dataset includes nine CSV files used to create visualizations on migration trends in Australia. It offers both historical and current migration statistics, with a focus on countering biased narratives in mainstream discussions about immigration.

Sourced from reputable Australian government agencies like the ABS, the data covers various aspects of Australia’s population and migration, from convict transportation to recent overseas migration patterns. By combining historical and contemporary data, the visualizations highlight how migration has shaped Australia's demographic landscape.

The goal of this collection is to challenge the misinformed and biased discussions about immigration often seen in the media, politics, and social media, encouraging readers to critically reassess their beliefs and consider whether they are based on evidence or prejudice.

Migrants from the United Kingdom have long been Australia’s primary immigrant group and in 2023 there were roughly 960 thousand English-born people living in Australia. India and China held second and third place respectively with regard to Australia’s foreign-born population. The relative dominance of Asian countries in the list of top ten foreign-born residents of Australia represents a significant shift in Australia’s immigration patterns over the past few decades. Where European-born migrants had previously overshadowed other migrant groups, Australian migration figures are now showing greater migration numbers from neighboring countries in Asia and the Pacific. A history of migration Australia is often referred to as an ‘immigrant nation’, alongside the United States, Canada, and New Zealand. Before the Second World War, migrants to Australia were almost exclusively from the UK, however after 1945, Australia’s immigration policy was broadened to attract economic migrants and temporary skilled migrants. These policy changes saw and increase in immigrants particularly from Greece and Italy. Today, Australia maintains its status as an ‘’Immigrant nation’’, with almost 30 percent of the population born overseas and around 50 percent of the population having both that were born overseas. Australian visas The Australian immigration program has two main categories of visa, permanent and temporary. The permanent visa category offers three primary pathways: skilled, family and humanitarian. The skilled visa category is by far the most common, with more than a million permanent migrants living in Australia on this visa category at the last Australian census in 2021. Of the temporary visa categories, the higher education visa is the most popular, exceeding 180 thousand arrivals in 2023.

Historical dataset showing Australia net migration by year from 1960 to 2024.

Historical Migration Statistics brings together migration statistics from 1945 through to the present day. \r \r In interpreting these statistics it should be noted that the classification of regions and country names has changed over time and that the way migration statistics are reported has also changed. From October 1945 to June 1959, migration statistics included permanent and long-term arrivals. Today, we have various components - the Migration Program, Humanitarian Program and Non-Program migration (mainly New Zealand citizens) reported as permanent additions to Australia's resident population.\r

In 2019 there were ********* migrants from the United Kingdom in Australia. The next largest migrant groups were people from China and New Zealand at over ******* migrants each. More recently Australian migration figures are showing greater migration numbers from neighboring countries in Asia and the Pacific and reduced numbers of European-born migrants.

The total population in Australia was estimated at 27.4 million people in 2024, according to the latest census figures and projections from Trading Economics. This dataset provides - Australia Population - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

These indexes were created from the Registers of immigrant ships’ arrivals in Queensland ports as kept and used by the Immigration Department from 1848 to 1912. The records are held at Queensland State Archives.

Summary data tables of German Immigrants to Australia 1850-1879, based on passenger that lists provide information on passenger name, age, place/state of origin in Germany and profession. The data tables focus on professions of the immigrants as entered in the departure lists.

This series consists of registers, kept by the Immigration Agent, Maryborough, of immigrants arriving at Maryborough. The registers are not arranged consistently but all include names of ships, passenger lists and arrival dates. IMA3/4 - 5 include agreements with employers; IMA3/7 -10 may include the country of origin of the passengers and where they have gone after leaving the depot.

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics If you have questions or feedback about this web service, please email geography@abs.gov.au. To subscribe to updates about ABS web services and geospatial products, please complete this form. For information about how the ABS manages any personal information you provide view the ABS privacy policy.

Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

Data and geography references

Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 Geographic boundary information: Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3 Further information: Population Projections, Australia methodology Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia

The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics

Email geography@abs.gov.au if you have any questions or feedback about this

About The Nauru Files contain the largest set of documents published from inside Australia's immigration detention system. Leaked to The Guardian in 2016, they include nearly 2,000 incident reports from the Nauru detention centre, which were written by guards, caseworkers and teachers on the remote Pacific island. Summary Examples of events include assaults, injuries, abuse and other forms of violence reported at the detention centre between 2013 and 2015. As noted by The Guardian, as well as academic research, Australia has privatised its immigration detention centres and exported detention of asylum seekers offshore to places such as Nauru and Manus Island in Papua New Guinea. This strategy is part of a wider "Pacific Solution" implemented by the Government of Australia since the early 2000s as a hardline deterrent to "stop the boats." Effectively, asylum seekers intercepted and detained on Nauru are removed from access to Australia's asylum system. Data Structure These data are composed of incident reports. An incident report is a short summary of an event in the Nauru detention centre written by staff there. Some of the details found in the files may be triggering; we therefore advise caution with reading and analysing these data. According to The Guardian, these reports form part of the Government of Australia's requirements to document what is happening within its detention system. Each report holds detailed information of the incident at the detention centre along with a "summary log". Working with The Guardian, we have organised these data into two forms: a PDF of each incident report, sorted by name at the time of leak, and a CSV/JSON of all incident reports (see "nauru_files.csv/json"), which structures key details into variables within its columns. Examples of variables include time, incident type, severity and description. Combined, these form a structured database linking each incident report to these variables. Data Source The Guardian has modified the original, leaked data to remove any personally-identifying information within them. To achieve this, a stringent approach of redaction has been implemented to remove names of asylum seekers and staff, personal identification numbers of asylum seekers, signatures of detention staff, nationalities within small population groups and residential tent numbers, among other things. There are also a large number of acronyms used in these data. For your convenience, we have provided an RTF document with a listing of these acronyms and their meanings. If you use these data, please cite the original source at The Guardian: The Guardian. (10 August 2016). The Nauru Files: The lives of asylum seekers in detention detailed in a unique database. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2016/aug/10/the-nauru-files-the-lives-of-asylum-seekers-in-detention-detailed-in-a-unique-database-interactive. Should you have any comments, questions or requested edits or extensions to the Nauru files, please contact Haven at kira.williams@utoronto.ca. For more articles from The Guardian on these data, see: The Nauru files: cache of 2,000 leaked reports reveal scale of abuse of children in Australian offshore detention. A short history of Nauru, Australia’s dumping ground for refugees. ‘I want death’: Nauru files chronicle despair of asylum seeker children.

In 1982 a new Migrant Selection Scheme extended eligibility in the Family Migration Category to non-dependent children and to brothers and sisters (Sub-category C) who were to be admitted subject to, among other criteria, appropriate sponsorship. The sponsorship scheme makes it easier for Australian residents to bring certain family members to Australia, thus allowing them to be considered when they might otherwise be outside the policy. In return for this concession, sponsors are expected to provide support or assistance to their relatives to avoid a charge on the taxpayer. The aims of this survey were to assess: the effectiveness of current sponsorship arrangements; and how well new arrivals are settling in Australia. Interviews were conducted with applicants under the scheme, and their spouses; and sponsors of those applicants. Two data files were deposited at ADA - one containing responses from sponsors (00585a), and one containing responses from sponsored individuals and spouses (00585b). A portion of the data (about 10%) from each data file is available in this online catalogue. Due to the nature of the deposited documentation, the rest of the data could not be made available online and some work is needed to recover the rest of the data. Please contact archive staff at ada@ada.edu.au if you wish to recover the rest of the data. The sponsor questionnaire asked about: perceptions of responsibilities of the sponsor; any effects being a sponsor has had on the sponsor or their family; any other sponsorship entered into; information on the sponsored person's background, employment history since arrival in Australia, accommodation details; other assistance provided to the sponsored person, and problems they may be experiencing; frequency of contact with sponsored person; and background details such as own country of birth, marital status and age.

Partial migration occurs in many taxa and ecosystems and may confer survival benefits. Here, we use otolith chemistry data to determine whether fish from a large estuarine system were resident or migratory, and then examine whether contingents display differences in modelled growth based on changes in width of otolith growth increments. Sixty-three per cent of fish were resident based on Ba : Ca of otoliths, with the remainder categorized as migratory, with both contingents distributed across most age/size classes and both sexes, suggesting population-level bet hedging. Migrant fish were in slightly better condition than resident fish based on Fulton's K condition index. Migration type (resident versus migratory) was 56 times more likely to explain variation in growth than a model just incorporating year- and age-related growth trends. While average growth only varied slightly between resident and migratory fish, year-to-year variation was significant. Such dynamism in growth rates likely drives persistence of both life-history types. The complex relationships in growth between contingents suggest that management of species exhibiting partial migration is challenging, especially in a world subject to a changing climate.

Humans have been living on the continent of Australia (name derived from "Terra Australis"; Latin for "the southern land") for approximately 65,000 years, however population growth was relatively slow until the nineteenth century. Europeans had made some contact with Australia as early as 1606, however there was no significant attempt at settlement until the late eighteenth century. By 1800, the population of Australia was approximately 350,000 people, and the majority of these were Indigenous Australians. As colonization progressed the number of ethnic Europeans increased while the Australian Aboriginal population was decimated through conflict, smallpox and other diseases, with some communities being exterminated completely, such as Aboriginal Tasmanians. Mass migration from Britain and China After the loss of its American colonies in the 1780s, the British Empire looked to other parts of the globe to expand its sphere of influence. In Australia, the first colonies were established in Sydney, Tasmania and Western Australia. Many of these were penal colonies which became home to approximately 164,000 British and Irish convicts who were transported to Australia between 1788 and 1868. As the decades progressed, expansion into the interior intensified, and the entire country was claimed by Britain in 1826. Inland colonization led to further conflict between European settlers and indigenous Australians, which cost the lives of thousands of natives. Inward expansion also saw the discovery of many natural resources, and most notably led to the gold rushes of the 1850s, which attracted substantial numbers of Chinese migrants to Australia. This mass migration from non-European countries eventually led to some restrictive policies being introduced, culminating with the White Australia Policy of 1901, which cemented ethnic-European dominance in Australian politics and society. These policies were not retracted until the second half of the 1900s. Independent Australia Australia changed its status to a British dominion in 1901, and eventually became independent in 1931. Despite this, Australia has remained a part of the British Commonwealth, and Australian forces (ANZAC) fought with the British and their Allies in both World Wars, and were instrumental in campaigns such as Gallipoli in WWI, and the South West Pacific Theater in WWII. The aftermath of both wars had a significant impact on the Australian population, with approximately 90 thousand deaths in both world wars combined, as well as 15 thousand deaths as a result of the Spanish flu pandemic following WWI, although Australia experienced a significant baby boom following the Second World War. In the past fifty years, Australia has promoted immigration from all over the world, and now has one of the strongest economies and highest living standards in the world, with a population that has grown to over 25 million people in 2020.

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and are projected out from a base population as of 30 June 2022. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

Data and geography references

Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 Geographic boundary information: Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3 Further information: Population Projections, Australia methodology Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia

The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics

Email geography@abs.gov.au if you have any questions or feedback about this web service.
Subscribe to get updates on ABS web services and geospatial products.

Privacy at the Australian Bureau of Statistics Read how the ABS manages personal information - ABS privacy policy.