Policy interest rates in the United States and Europe declined markedly in 2025, with all observed economies implementing multiple rate cuts over the course of the year. In the United States, the federal funds rate was reduced from **** percent at the end of 2024 to **** percent by year-end 2025. Similarly, the European Central Bank lowered its main refinancing rate from **** percent to **** percent, while the Bank of England reduced its bank rate from **** percent to **** percent. Based on forecasts conducted in 2024, both the U.S. federal funds rate and the Bank of England’s policy rate are expected to decline further in 2026. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

In 2026, the federal funds effective rate continued its downward adjustment as the Federal Reserve advanced its policy easing cycle. After the beginning of 2025 at **** percent following a January rate cut, the rate remained unchanged until September 2025, when it was reduced to **** percent. Additional easing followed late in the year, with the rate lowered to **** percent in November and further reduced to **** percent in December, reflecting a sustained shift toward accommodative monetary policy. This phase of rate reductions followed a prolonged period of elevated interest rates that began after the COVID-19 pandemic. In early 2020, the federal funds effective rate was sharply reduced in response to the economic shock caused by the pandemic, falling from **** percent in February 2020 to **** percent in March and reaching **** percent by April. These emergency cuts, combined with the quantitative easing program, were designed to stabilize financial markets and support economic activity. The rate remained near zero for nearly two years before the Federal Reserve initiated a tightening cycle in early 2022, raising the rate from **** percent in April 2022 to a peak of **** percent in August 2023. After holding rates steady for more than a year, the Federal Reserve began reversing course in September 2024, cutting the rate to **** percent, followed by a further reduction to **** percent in December 2024, marking the start of a broader policy pivot that continued through 2025 and into 2026, reaching **** percent in February 2026. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates Interest rate adjustments following the COVID-19 pandemic reflected a largely coordinated global response. In early 2020, central banks worldwide adopted aggressive monetary easing to counter the economic shock, with the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate from **** percent in February to **** percent by April, in line with actions taken globally. After rates remained near zero through 2021, rising inflation triggered a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022. As inflation moderated, central banks - including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank - began cutting rates in mid-2024. This shift toward easing broadened in 2025, with interest rates reduced in most countries.

When inflation is persistently high, the economy reacts to monetary policy more slowly and with more volatility.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.75 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In January 2026, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2025. In January 2026, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at ** percent, while Japan retained the lowest at **** percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. Sweden had the lowest inflation rate at *** percent in October 2023. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of *** percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in late 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from **** percent in September 2019 to *** percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2024 and 2025.

Context

The Federal Reserve sets interest rates to promote conditions that achieve the mandate set by the Congress — high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and moderate long-term interest rates. Interest rates set by the Fed directly influence the cost of borrowing money. Lower interest rates encourage more people to obtain a mortgage for a new home or to borrow money for an automobile or for home improvement. Lower rates encourage businesses to borrow funds to invest in expansion such as purchasing new equipment, updating plants, or hiring more workers. Higher interest rates restrain such borrowing by consumers and businesses.

Content

This dataset includes data on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate. The effective federal funds rate is determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate; the target rate transitioned to a target range with an upper and lower limit in December 2008. The real gross domestic product is calculated as the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the gross domestic product based on chained 2009 dollars. The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force. The inflation rate reflects the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index of products excluding food and energy.

Acknowledgements

The interest rate data was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal. The gross domestic product data was provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; the unemployment and consumer price index data was provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inspiration

How does economic growth, unemployment, and inflation impact the Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions? How has the interest rate policy changed over time? Can you predict the Federal Reserve's next decision? Will the target range set in March 2017 be increased, decreased, or remain the same?

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.25 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In February 2026, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and euro area each implemented several interest rate cuts, reflecting a shared shift toward monetary easing as inflation pressures continued to moderate and economic growth slowed. This synchronized easing followed a prolonged period of elevated policy rates and underscored the close alignment of monetary policy across major advanced economies. Over the longer period from 2003 to February 2026, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank displayed notably similar interest rate trajectories shaped by common global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, policy rates were kept relatively low to support growth before being raised ahead of the 2008 financial crisis as economic activity accelerated. The crisis triggered sharp reductions in interest rates to near-zero levels, which were maintained for an extended period to foster recovery. Another phase of extraordinary easing occurred in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic prompted central banks to cut rates to historic lows to cushion the economic shock. This stance was reversed in 2022, as surging inflation led to an aggressive tightening cycle across all three institutions. As inflation began to stabilize in late 2023 and early 2024, the European Central Bank and Bank of England initiated the first steps toward policy easing, setting the stage for the broader and more synchronized rate cuts observed in February 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the European Central Bank sets a benchmark policy rate for the euro area, individual European countries have pursued differing monetary policy paths to address their specific economic conditions. For example, Hungary recorded the highest policy rate in the European Union, reaching ** percent in September 2023, before gradually reducing it to *** percent by December 2025. By contrast, Sweden adopted a more aggressive easing approach, cutting its policy rate to **** percent by the end of 2025 - the lowest level among EU member states. These divergences underscore the complexity of the European monetary landscape, as national central banks balance inflation control with the need to support economic growth. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of July 2025, Turkey had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

The U.S. federal funds rate reached its peak in 2023, climbing to **** percent by December - its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis - following an aggressive tightening cycle aimed at curbing elevated inflation. A clear shift in monetary policy emerged in the second half of 2024, when the Federal Reserve began implementing a series of rate cuts as inflationary pressures eased and economic growth moderated. By December 2024, the federal funds rate had declined to **** percent. This easing cycle continued into 2025, with additional rate reductions throughout the year, bringing the rate below **** percent by year-end and signaling a sustained move toward a more accommodative policy stance. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historical perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

Banks with declining net interest margins during the 2022–23 tightening cycle were more reliant on capital market funding.

The benchmark interest rate in Australia was last recorded at 4.10 percent. This dataset provides - Australia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Real interest rates refer to the nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation, and are an important economic indicator that can have significant impacts on investment, savings, and overall economic growth. Real interest rates can affect the demand for goods and services, investment decisions, and borrowing costs, among other things.

The real interest rates per country dataset provides a comprehensive overview of the real interest rates of each country. The dataset includes information on the real interest rates, covering all countries in the world. It is compiled from various sources, including national central banks, international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other relevant data sources.

The real interest rates per country dataset can be used by researchers, policymakers, and investors to gain insight into the economic conditions of different countries and to compare the relative levels of real interest rates across the world. It can also be used to monitor changes in real interest rates over time and to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policies and strategies.

Overall, the real interest rates per country dataset is an important resource for understanding the economic conditions of different countries and for developing policies and strategies that promote sustainable economic growth and stability.

In 2026, the United Kingdom’s monetary policy continued to ease, with the Bank of England implementing rate cuts over the course of the year. The final cut reduced the Bank Rate to **** percent, reinforcing the shift toward a less restrictive policy stance as inflationary pressures moderated. This easing followed an initial policy pivot in August 2024, when the Bank of England lowered the official bank rate to * percent, marking the first rate cut since the previous year. Earlier, in response to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England had reduced the Bank Rate to a historic low of *** percent in March 2020 - just one week after an emergency cut from **** percent to **** percent aimed at preventing widespread job losses. The rate remained at *** percent until December 2021, before rising to * percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. Thereafter, the Bank Rate increased almost monthly, reaching **** percent in August 2023, where it remained until the first reduction in August 2024 signaled a turning point in UK monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2026, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high-energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate Changes: Historical Dates of Changes and Rates (PRIME) from 1955-08-04 to 2025-12-11 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Brazil was last recorded at 14.75 percent. This dataset provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Nigeria was last recorded at 26.50 percent. This dataset provides - Nigeria Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In the second quarter, new small business lending increased by 7.5% when compared to both the previous quarter and the same period in 2024. Outstanding loan balances also increased, as most interest rates across new term loans and lines of credit decreased slightly.

This dissertation comprises three chapters. The first chapter compares macroeconomic forecasts of various machine learning models. The subsequent two chapters evaluate the response of unemployment and monetary policy to various oil price shocks.

The first chapter evaluates the performance of an extensive set of machine learning algorithms in forecasting macroeconomic variables relative to benchmark econometric models. We conduct a pseudo-out-of-sample forecast for fifteen real, nominal, and financial variables. Machine learning models outperform the benchmark in forecasting real variables, attributed to their ability to handle nonlinearities, but perform worse in forecasting nominal and financial variables. They beat the benchmark during high volatility episodes, like recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Dimension reduction models frequently appear in the top five most accurate models for real variables, especially at longer horizons.

In the second chapter, we utilize local projections to investigate the impact of structural oil price shocks on unemployment rates and spells across the United States, emphasizing both national and state-level variations. Oil supply shocks lead to long-run increases in the national unemployment rate, incidence, and short-term unemployment. In contrast, economic activity shocks reduce all unemployment rates and spells, especially in oil-producing states. Consumption demand shocks have minimal impact on unemployment rates and durations, while inventory demand shocks show only temporary effects on durations.

The third chapter uses local projections to investigate the macroeconomic and monetary policy responses to adverse oil supply shocks. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates twice: on impact and ten months after the shock to counter ongoing high inflation. A net oil exporter, Canada raises interest rates sharply in response to the shock to counter inflation. Switzerland initially maintains steady interest rates to prevent Swiss Franc appreciation, followed by gradual rate increases to manage inflation as the exchange rate stabilizes. Despite these efforts, inflation remains high in Switzerland.

The benchmark interest rate in Thailand was last recorded at 1 percent. This dataset provides - Thailand Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.