The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

This dataset includes various economic indicators such as stock market performance, inflation rates, GDP, interest rates, employment data, and housing index, all of which are crucial for understanding the state of the economy. By analysing this dataset, one can gain insights into the causes and effects of past recessions in the US, which can inform investment decisions and policy-making.

There are 20 columns and 343 rows spanning 1990-04 to 2022-10

The columns are:

1. Price: Price column refers to the S&P 500 lot price over the years. The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. This variable represents the value of the S&P 500 index from 1980 to present. Industrial Production: This variable measures the output of industrial establishments in the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It reflects the overall health of the manufacturing industry, which is a key component of the US economy.

2. INDPRO: Industrial production measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors of the economy. It provides insights into the overall health of the economy, as a decline in industrial production can indicate a slowdown in economic activity. This data can be used by policymakers and investors to assess the state of the economy and make informed decisions.

3. CPI: CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that consumers purchase. CPI inflation represents the rate at which the prices of goods and services in the economy are increasing.

4. Treasure Bill rate (3 month to 30 Years): Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term debt securities issued by the US government. This variable represents the interest rates on T-bills with maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years. It reflects the cost of borrowing money for the government and provides an indication of the overall level of interest rates in the economy.

5. GDP: GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a country. This dataset is taking into account only the Nominal GDP values. Nominal GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy without accounting for inflation.

6. Rate: The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. It is set by the Federal Reserve and is used as a tool to regulate the money supply in the economy.

7. BBK_Index: The BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

8. Housing Index: This variable represents the value of the housing market in the US. It is calculated based on the prices of homes sold in the market and provides an indication of the overall health of the housing market.

9. Recession binary column: This variable is a binary indicator that takes a value of 1 when the US economy is in a recession and 0 otherwise. It is based on the official business cycle dates provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Understanding the Dynamics and Implications of a Housing Market Recession

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

ABSTRACT The paper discusses the determination of inflation in Brazil, especially after the great recession of 2015-2016, to assess the adequacy of manipulating interest rates to control the rise in prices due to permanent cost pressure. The burden of using the interest rate to fight cost inflation is to create a highly conventional level of the real interest rate, which benefits the rentier class in a financialized economy. In the light of the post-Keynesian macroeconomics, a high-interest rate convention keeps the economy with a low growth rate and a low investment rate, which in the case of the Brazilian economy has resulted in a regression in the productive matrix and productivity stagnation, and both contribute to perpetuating cost pressures on prices. The empirical analysis corroborates the discussion about recent inflation having its origin in cost pressures over which the interest rate impact for its control is limited. We complement the empirical analysis by testing the response to the SELIC interest rate of the variables used to explain the fluctuation of market prices and administered prices: commodity price index, exchange rate and activity level. As expected, the impact of an increase in the interest rate appreciates the exchange rate, favouring inflation control and reducing the level of activity but has no impact on the commodity price index.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The survey studied Finnish public opinion on the country's potential membership in the European Community. First, the respondents were asked whether the Government had been wrong or right in applying for the membership, and whether the respondents opposed or supported the membership. They were also asked how interested they were in issues connected with European integration and the EC, and how well informed they were of these issues. The survey also investigated opinions on the reliability of various information sources (e.g. radio and television, trade unions, company executives, Prime Minister) on the EC membership issue. Views were probed on the impact of the EC membership on interest rate, taxation, wages, prices, food quality, culture, education, social security, health care, Finland's relations with Russia, crime, etc. The respondents were asked to what extent they agreed with a number of statement relating to the EC and Finland's EC membership. One set of questions focused on the causes and culprits of economic recession in Finland. Regarding the recession, the respondents were also asked to assess the present and future financial situation of certain banks, and how soon Finland would emerge from the recession. One theme pertained to energy issues: the respondents were asked whether Finland should increase or decrease the use of certain energy sources in electricity generation. Opinions on the construction of a fifth nuclear power plant or the Vuotos reservoir were charted, and likewise perceptions of major energy companies. Background variables included the respondent's gender, age group, size of the municipality, province of residence, basic and vocational education, economic activity, employment sector, and which political party R would vote for if the parliamentary elections were held at that time.

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US Residential Construction Market Size 2025-2029

The US residential construction market size is forecast to increase by USD 242.9 million at a CAGR of 4.5% between 2024 and 2029.

The Residential Construction Market in the US is experiencing significant growth driven by increasing household formation rates and a rising focus on sustainability in new projects. According to the latest data, household formation is projected to continue growing at a steady pace, fueling the demand for new residential units. This trend is particularly evident in urban areas, where population growth and limited space for new development are driving up demand. Meanwhile, the emphasis on sustainability in residential construction is transforming the market landscape. With consumers increasingly prioritizing energy efficiency and eco-friendly features in their homes, builders and developers are responding by incorporating green technologies and sustainable materials into their projects.
This shift not only appeals to environmentally-conscious consumers but also offers long-term cost savings and regulatory compliance benefits. However, the market is not without challenges. Skilled labor shortages continue to pose a significant hurdle for large-scale residential real estate projects. The ongoing shortage of skilled laborers, including carpenters, electricians, and plumbers, is driving up labor costs and delaying project timelines. To mitigate this challenge, some builders are exploring alternative solutions, such as modular construction and automation, to streamline their operations and reduce their reliance on traditional labor sources. The Residential Construction Market in the US presents significant opportunities for companies seeking to capitalize on the growing demand for new housing units and the shift towards sustainability.
However, navigating the challenges of labor shortages and rising costs will require innovative solutions and strategic planning. By staying informed of market trends and adapting to evolving consumer preferences, companies can effectively position themselves for success in this dynamic market.

What will be the size of the US Residential Construction Market during the forecast period?

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The residential construction market in the United States continues to exhibit dynamic activity, driven by various economic factors. Housing supply remains a key focus, with ongoing discussions surrounding the affordable housing trend and efforts to increase inventory, particularly for single-family homes and new constructions. Mortgage and federal funds rates have an impact on residential investment, with fluctuations influencing buyer decisions and construction costs. The labor market plays a crucial role, as workforce availability and wages affect both housing starts and cancellation rates. Inflation and interest rates, monitored closely by the Federal Reserve, also shape the market's direction. Recession risks and economic conditions influence construction spending across various sectors, including multifamily and single-family homes.
Federal programs, such as housing choice vouchers and fair housing initiatives, continue to support home buyers and promote equitable housing opportunities. Building permits and housing starts serve as essential indicators of market health and future growth, with some sectors experiencing double-digit growth. Overall, the residential construction market in the US remains a significant economic driver, shaped by a complex interplay of economic, demographic, and policy factors.

How is this market segmented?

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD million' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Product

  Apartments and condominiums
  Luxury Homes
  Other types


Type

  New construction
  Renovation


Application

  Single family
  Multi-family


Construction Material

  Wood-framed
  Concrete
  Steel
  Modular/Prefabricated


Geography

  US

By Product Insights

The apartments and condominiums segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The residential construction market in the US is experiencing growth in both the apartment and condominium sectors, driven by the increasing trend toward urbanization and changing lifestyle preferences. Apartments, typically owned by property management companies, and condominiums, with individually owned units within a larger complex, contribute significantly to the market. The Federal Reserve's influence on the economy through the federal funds rate and mortgage rates impacts borrowing rates and home construction activity. The affordability of housing, particularly for younger generations, is a concern due to factors such as inflation, labor market conditions, and savings

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to 6.81 percent in 2023, up from the record-low 2.96 percent in 2021. In 2024, interest rates declined slightly. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

The survey focused on Finland's membership in the European Community, the country's economic recession, social conflicts between different groups, and political influence of certain groups and institutions. Finland had applied for the EC membership in March 1992, and many questions explored issues connected to the membership, membership negotiations, and the impact of the membership. The respondents were also asked how interested they were in issues connected to the EC and European integration, and how well informed of these issues they were. Opinions on the likelihood of Finland becoming an EC member state were charted. One topic pertained to the process of deepening European integration, and how negatively or positively the respondents viewed the possibility that Finland would participate in common foreign policy, common security and defence policy, single European currency, etc. The survey studied perceptions of the impact the EC membership would have on Finland (e.g. on standard of living, employment, business conditions, interest rate, wage level, national sovereignty). One theme pertained to causes of and reasons behind the economic recession. Views were also probed on whether certain bodies and groups (trade unions, Parliament, the media, banks, the police, political parties, universities, etc.) held too little or too much power in the society. Further, the respondents were asked whether there were conflicts, and how strong, between various groups (e.g. the rich vs. the poor, the media vs. decision-makers, well-educated vs. poorly educated, employers vs. employees, young people vs. the elderly) in Finland. Background variables included the respondent's gender, age group, size of municipality, province of residence, basic and vocational education, economic activity, employment sector, and which political party R would vote for if the parliamentary elections were held at that time.

As of December 30, 2024, 14 economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of 1,370 percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with -350 percent; and Russia with -273 percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

With the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, economies across the globe began to enter into deep recessions. What had started out as a crisis centered on the United States quickly became global in nature, as it became apparent that not only had the economies of other advanced countries (grouped together as the G7) become intimately tied to the U.S. financial system, but that many of them had experienced housing and asset price bubbles similar to that in the U.S.. The United Kingdom had experienced a huge inflation of housing prices since the 1990s, while Eurozone members (such as Germany, France and Italy) had financial sectors which had become involved in reckless lending to economies on the periphery of the EU, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Other countries, such as Japan, were hit heavily due their export-led growth models which suffered from the decline in international trade. Unemployment during the Great Recession As business and consumer confidence crashed, credit markets froze, and international trade contracted, the unemployment rate in the most advanced economies shot up. While four to five percent is generally considered to be a healthy unemployment rate, nearing full employment in the economy (when any remaining unemployment is not related to a lack of consumer demand), many of these countries experienced rates at least double that, with unemployment in the United States peaking at almost 10 percent in 2010. In large countries, unemployment rates of this level meant millions or tens of millions of people being out of work, which led to political pressures to stimulate economies and create jobs. By 2012, many of these countries were seeing declining unemployment rates, however, in France and Italy rates of joblessness continued to increase as the Euro crisis took hold. These countries suffered from having a monetary policy which was too tight for their economies (due to the ECB controlling interest rates) and fiscal policy which was constrained by EU debt rules. Left with the option of deregulating their labor markets and pursuing austerity policies, their unemployment rates remained over 10 percent well into the 2010s. Differences in labor markets The differences in unemployment rates at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010) reflect not only the differences in how economies were affected by the downturn, but also the differing labor market institutions and programs in the various countries. Countries with more 'liberalized' labor markets, such as the United States and United Kingdom experienced sharp jumps in their unemployment rate due to the ease at which employers can lay off workers in these countries. When the crisis subsided in these countries, however, their unemployment rates quickly began to drop below those of the other countries, due to their more dynamic labor markets which make it easier to hire workers when the economy is doing well. On the other hand, countries with more 'coordinated' labor market institutions, such as Germany and Japan, experiences lower rates of unemployment during the crisis, as programs such as short-time work, job sharing, and wage restraint agreements were used to keep workers in their jobs. While these countries are less likely to experience spikes in unemployment during crises, the highly regulated nature of their labor markets mean that they are slower to add jobs during periods of economic prosperity.

The cooperative banking sector has developed negatively over the last five years. Industry revenue, which is made up of interest and commission income, has fallen by an average of 0.6% per year since 2019. The poor earnings performance in the years 2019 to 2021 is primarily due to the low level of interest rates and strong competition in the market. As a result of the financial crisis in 2008 and the euro crisis in 2010, the European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to keep lowering the key interest rate until it reached a low of 0% in March 2016. In 2020, the far-reaching negative effects of the coronavirus crisis prevented an increase in the key interest rate due to the associated risk of a Europe-wide recession. As a result, interest income in the sector fell, which caused difficulties for smaller cooperative banks in particular.In the current year, the sector should be able to increase commission income from the home loan and savings business and interest income from overdraft facilities and variable-interest loans in the short term, as demand is increasingly shifting from building loans to home loan and savings products due to high interest rates and overdraft facilities are increasingly in demand to cover the high cost of living. Overall, turnover in the sector is expected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year to 29.6 billion euros. However, the poor business and consumer climate is weighing on the cooperative banks. In addition, the over-indebtedness ratio is likely to stagnate or even rise slightly in the current year, which is why there is a risk that the number of non-performing loans will increase. This development is likely to cause problems for the cooperative banks.IBISWorld expects the cooperative banks' interest and commission income to fall by an average of 0.7% per year over the next five years and thus amount to 28.7 billion euros in 2029. As the banking market in Germany, which is highly fragmented by international standards, is saturated, significant changes are to be expected in the coming years. It can be assumed that banks will increasingly merge in order to increase their competitiveness, meaning that the previous consolidation of the sector is likely to accelerate. In addition, digitalisation will continue to gain in importance and the successful introduction of innovative and modern products as well as the expansion of sales channels will be decisive for a company's success.

Production of natural gas in the United States has been increasing for the past decade and peaked at nearly 1035.3 billion cubic meters in 2023. An increase in production corresponded with rising demand for natural gas in the United States, particularly after the 2008 Recession.    Natural gas becomes competitive Since the early 2000s, the price of coal had been going up, and increased more rapidly following the 2008 Recession, which affected the cost of crude oil to an even greater degree. When the price of crude oil peaked shortly after the financial crisis, consumption of petroleum decreased in the next year. Simultaneously, the cost of natural gas dramatically decreased, making it a stronger competitor with coal and petroleum. The rise of fracking Low-interest rates during the Recession led to new investments in new techniques to obtain natural gas, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, that may be controversial due to health and environmental impacts. Often obtained through fracking, shale gas has become a common form of natural gas, and shale gas production in the United States has increased dramatically since the financial crisis.

The material handling equipment industry has closely followed the ups and downs of the broader economy. In 2020, the sector faced a downturn due to pandemic-related disruptions, much like many other industries. However, unlike the sharp decline seen during the 2009 recession, the impact was less severe. The industry experienced a moderate decline, reflecting a more resilient response to economic challenges. Looking forward, between 2021 and 2022, the industry found its footing again as skyrocketing commodity prices fueled revenue growth. Overall, the industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.7% to reach $58.2 billion in 2024. Despite these positive signals, the material handling equipment distributor industry is currently navigating through sluggish economic conditions. The Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy adjustments in response to inflationary pressures have cast a shadow over economic recovery efforts, impacting both general economic activities and the specific dynamics of equipment distributors. As a result, the industry faces ongoing challenges in stimulating demand, with expectations for subdued growth as economic uncertainties persist. As a result, the industry is expected to decline 2.1% in 2024. The industry stands to benefit from lower interest rates, which reduce borrowing costs and facilitate investments in equipment. Additionally, technological advancements, such as Automated Guided Vehicles and Autonomous Mobile Robots, will drive demand for more efficient handling solutions, expanding the market for distributors despite challenges from direct sales and competition from foreign manufacturers. Overall, the industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.7% to reach $63.3 billion by 2029.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.