By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Looming Shadows: A Deep Dive into the Housing Market Recession

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (INDREC) from May 1996 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and India.

According to a survey conducted in August 2024, over 20 percent of consumers in the United States believed both inflation and a pending recession would impact their Halloween spending plans. About the same number of people said these economic changes would not influence their spending.

Data and replication files for:Buckles, Kasey, Melanie Guldi, and Lucie Schmidt. and Elizabeth L. Munnich. "The Great Recession's Baby-less Recovery: The Role of Unintended Births." Journal of Human Resources, forthcoming.

In the face of an upcoming recession in the United States, 50 percent of consumers stated they are willing to switch to less expressive brands, according to a survey conducted in 2022. Roughly 40 percent noted that they will keep loyal to brands they currently purchase but will consume them less often. Only 12 percent of the surveyed consumers expected to maintain their shopping behavior, buying the brands they are used to and keeping the purchase amount and frequency the same.

As of December 30, 2024, 14 economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of 1,370 percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with -350 percent; and Russia with -273 percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

Using the World Bank data over the period of 1960–2019, this study aims at estimating the resiliency of health expenditures against gross domestic product (GDP). Long-run and short-run elasticities are calculated using the type of panel time series methods that are exclusively designed for dynamic heterogeneous panels: Mean Group, Pooled Mean Group, and Dynamic Fixed Effects estimators. These methods permit better estimations of elasticity with considerable heterogeneity across the 177 countries included in this study. Along with a standard elasticity estimation, this study estimates country-specific long-run and short-run elasticities along with error correction components. The study finds that the long-run elasticity of income is very close to unity, but short-run coefficients are insignificant for most nations. In addition, most countries revert to long-run equilibrium reasonably quickly if there is shock as the error correction coefficients are negative and, in many cases, very close to one. While for most developed countries, the short-run elasticities are lower in comparison with the short-run elasticities of developing countries indicating that many developing countries may face a larger decrease in health expenditure with the forecasted decline in income due to impending economic recession. Therefore, although this study is not directly intended to capture the post-COVID-19 effects, the study estimates may project the potential responses in health expenditure across countries due to potential income shocks.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

This is a replication package for "Singleness and the Pandemic Dating Recession," a paper by Michael Rosenfeld forthcoming in the Journal of Family Issues.The data are a subset of HCMST 2017-2022, ICPSR 38873

In April 2019, 26 percent of Millennials said that losing their job would have the greatest negative impact on their future housing plans in the United States, whereas only seven percent of said that an impending economic recession would have a large impact on their future housing plans.

Recent studies have reported beneficial carryover effects of juvenile development that predict interspecific survival differences at independence. Yet, traits relating to body size (i.e. morphological traits) have proven to be unreliable predictors of juvenile survival within species. Exploring individual variation of growth trajectories and how they covary with physiology could reveal species-specific developmental modes which have implications for our assessments of juvenile quality. Here, we investigated morphological development of European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) approaching fledging in relation to three components of physiological condition at independence: aerobic capacity, energy state and oxidative status. We found evidence of flexible mass and wing growth which independently covaried with fledgling energy state and aerobic capacity, respectively. By comparison, tarsus and wing length at fledging were unrelated to any physiological trait, while mass was positively associated with principal component scores that comprised aerobic capacity and energy state. Thus, flexible growth trajectories were consistent with ‘developmental plasticity’: adaptive pre-fledging mass recession and compensatory wing growth, which seemingly came at a physiological cost, while fledgling body mass positively reflected overall physiological condition. This highlights how patterns of growth and absolute size may differently reflect fledgling physiology, potentially leading to variable relationships between morphological traits and juvenile fitness.

Replication Data for Naoi, Megumi and Ikuo Kume (2015), "Workers or Consumers? A Survey Experiment on the Duality of Citizens' Interests in the Politics of Trade", forthcoming, Comparative Political Studies.

Stock prices of Vopak, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, was not heavily affected by the financial effects of the coronavirus outbreak. While the share price dropped by almost 20 percent between mid-February and mid-March 2020, it quickly recovered - although it has been trending downwards since then for the remainder of 2020. As of April 19, 2023, the Vopak stock price stood at 35.45 euros, well below the price seen in July 2020.

Meanwhile, financial markets were looking at the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly facing the effects of an impending recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus.

Recent studies have reported beneficial carryover effects of juvenile development that predict interspecific survival differences at independence. Yet, traits relating to body size (i.e. morphological traits) have proven to be unreliable predictors of juvenile survival within species. Exploring individual variation of growth trajectories and how they covary with physiology could reveal species-specific developmental modes which have implications for our assessments of juvenile quality. Here, we investigated morphological development of European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) approaching fledging in relation to three components of physiological condition at independence: aerobic capacity, energy state and oxidative status. We found evidence of flexible mass and wing growth which independently covaried with fledgling energy state and aerobic capacity, respectively. By comparison, tarsus and wing length at fledging were unrelated to any physiological trait, while mass was positively associated with principal component scores that comprised aerobic capacity and energy state. Thus, flexible growth trajectories were consistent with ‘developmental plasticity’: adaptive pre-fledging mass recession and compensatory wing growth, which seemingly came at a physiological cost, while fledgling body mass positively reflected overall physiological condition. This highlights how patterns of growth and absolute size may differently reflect fledgling physiology, potentially leading to variable relationships between morphological traits and juvenile fitness.

In the face of an upcoming recession in the United States, roughly 25 percent of B2C small businesses in the country plan to outsource marketing and advertising activities, according to a survey conducted in 2022. The share was lower among B2B businesses: 14 percent said they plan to partner with third-party agencies for marketing and advertising.

This is the code replication archive for the paper, "The COVID-19 Baby Bump in the United States," forthcoming in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The underlying natality microdata are restricted, so this archive contains only the code to replicate our analysis.We use natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all U.S. births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to U.S.-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a pre-pandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education. The 2021-2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.