By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Aug 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Aug 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

According to a survey conducted in August 2024, over ** percent of consumers in the United States believed both inflation and a pending recession would impact their Halloween spending plans. About the same number of people said these economic changes would not influence their spending.

The dataset (in csv format) has been prepared by scraping Twitter data on the topic recession in India and has around 5112 tweets. The information such as number of likes for the tweet, number of times the tweet had been retweeted till 30 Nov 2022, the name of the user is included in this dataset. Is recession imminent in India?

Using the World Bank data over the period of 1960–2019, this study aims at estimating the resiliency of health expenditures against gross domestic product (GDP). Long-run and short-run elasticities are calculated using the type of panel time series methods that are exclusively designed for dynamic heterogeneous panels: Mean Group, Pooled Mean Group, and Dynamic Fixed Effects estimators. These methods permit better estimations of elasticity with considerable heterogeneity across the 177 countries included in this study. Along with a standard elasticity estimation, this study estimates country-specific long-run and short-run elasticities along with error correction components. The study finds that the long-run elasticity of income is very close to unity, but short-run coefficients are insignificant for most nations. In addition, most countries revert to long-run equilibrium reasonably quickly if there is shock as the error correction coefficients are negative and, in many cases, very close to one. While for most developed countries, the short-run elasticities are lower in comparison with the short-run elasticities of developing countries indicating that many developing countries may face a larger decrease in health expenditure with the forecasted decline in income due to impending economic recession. Therefore, although this study is not directly intended to capture the post-COVID-19 effects, the study estimates may project the potential responses in health expenditure across countries due to potential income shocks.

In April 2019, ** percent of Millennials said that losing their job would have the greatest negative impact on their future housing plans in the United States, whereas only ***** percent of said that an impending economic recession would have a large impact on their future housing plans.

In the face of an upcoming recession in the United States, roughly ** percent of B2C small businesses in the country plan to outsource marketing and advertising activities, according to a survey conducted in 2022. The share was lower among B2B businesses: ** percent said they plan to partner with third-party agencies for marketing and advertising.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

This is a replication package for "Singleness and the Pandemic Dating Recession," a paper by Michael Rosenfeld forthcoming in the Journal of Family Issues.The data are a subset of HCMST 2017-2022, ICPSR 38873

In the face of an upcoming recession in the United States, ** percent of consumers stated they are willing to switch to less expressive brands, according to a survey conducted in 2022. Roughly ** percent noted that they will keep loyal to brands they currently purchase but will consume them less often. Only ** percent of the surveyed consumers expected to maintain their shopping behavior, buying the brands they are used to and keeping the purchase amount and frequency the same.

Recent studies have reported beneficial carryover effects of juvenile development that predict interspecific survival differences at independence. Yet, traits relating to body size (i.e. morphological traits) have proven to be unreliable predictors of juvenile survival within species. Exploring individual variation of growth trajectories and how they covary with physiology could reveal species-specific developmental modes which have implications for our assessments of juvenile quality. Here, we investigated morphological development of European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) approaching fledging in relation to three components of physiological condition at independence: aerobic capacity, energy state and oxidative status. We found evidence of flexible mass and wing growth which independently covaried with fledgling energy state and aerobic capacity, respectively. By comparison, tarsus and wing length at fledging were unrelated to any physiological trait, while mass was positively associated with principal component scores that comprised aerobic capacity and energy state. Thus, flexible growth trajectories were consistent with ‘developmental plasticity’: adaptive pre-fledging mass recession and compensatory wing growth, which seemingly came at a physiological cost, while fledgling body mass positively reflected overall physiological condition. This highlights how patterns of growth and absolute size may differently reflect fledgling physiology, potentially leading to variable relationships between morphological traits and juvenile fitness.

Replication Data for Naoi, Megumi and Ikuo Kume (2015), "Workers or Consumers? A Survey Experiment on the Duality of Citizens' Interests in the Politics of Trade", forthcoming, Comparative Political Studies.

The size of the Flat Glass Market market was valued at USD 113.47 Million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 162.67 Million by 2032, with an expected CAGR of 5.28% during the forecast period. The global flat glass market is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing demand from construction, automotive, and solar energy industries. Key features of flat glass include high durability, clarity, and versatility, making it ideal for various applications such as windows, facades, mirrors, and solar panels. The market is categorized by type into tempered, laminated, and insulated glass, each offering distinct advantages in safety, strength, and energy efficiency. Technological advancements, such as low-emissivity coatings and smart glass technologies, are enhancing product performance and driving market expansion. The impact of flat glass technology is profound, contributing to sustainable building practices and energy savings. Overall, the flat glass market offers substantial advantages, including improved energy efficiency, safety, and aesthetic appeal, aligning with global trends towards sustainability and innovation. Recent developments include: In September 2022, AGC Glass Europe S.A. a 100% subsidiary of AGC a world-leading manufacturer of glass, chemicals, and high-tech materials announced that it will produce a float glass range featuring a significantly reduced carbon footprint of less than 7 kg of CO2 per m2 for clear glass (4 mm thickness) by the end of 2022., In June 2022, Saint Gobain unveiled its new highly reflective glass, MIRASTAR REFLECT. The product has a high level of opacity and reflection, with only 0.1% Light Transmission and 55% Light Reflection. It shows great durability even in high-humidity environments and is best suited for mirrored wall-fixed applications.. Key drivers for this market are: Growing Demand for Electronic Displays, Increasing Demand from the Construction Industry. Potential restraints include: Impact of the Upcoming Recession Across the Globe and the Resurgence of COVID-19 in China, Other Restraints. Notable trends are: Construction Industry to Drive the Demand for Flat Glass.

This dataset contains files and code associated with an article submitted for review on 6/4/2025. Information below is in draft form and may be revised.

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TITLE: Morphologically adaptive modelling of sea level rise induced coastal erosion impact for south-east Australia

AUTHORS: Robert Jak McCarroll¹, David M. Kennedy¹, Daniel Ierodiaconou²

¹ School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

² School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Warrnambool, Victoria, Australia

ABSTRACT

Sea level rise induced coastal erosion represents an impending threat to the world’s coastlines. A critical control on coastal recession is the onshore accommodation space available for a receding beach to occupy. Despite the importance of morphologic controls, coastal change models applied at regional-scale over ~100-year time-frames typically address a limited range of coastal morphologies.

ShoreTrans is a shoreface translation model that kinematically projects profile change, based on inputs of sea level rise and sediment budget imbalances. This work presents updates to enable broad-scale model application (1000’s km), automating classification and adapting to the morphology of individual profiles, including: (1) dunes; (2) cliffs; (3) bluffs and ridges; (4) inter-subtidal rock outcrops; (5) protection structures; (6) low-energy environments; and (7) short-term dune erosion. The model was applied to Victoria, Australia (2000 km coastline, 30 m spaced transects), for a scenario of 1 m sea level rise from 2010 to 2100, using a single time step and simplified treatment of uncertainty and sediment budget. Shoreline trends and variability were determined from satellite extracted shorelines.

Modelled rates of shoreline recession were 20% lower than for a simple parameterization (uncertainty range 58% lower to 8% higher), due to sediment transfer from the backshore to the active shoreface (e.g., dune encroachment) and hard backshores restricting shoreline movements (e.g., cliffs, seawalls). Low dunes exhibited the highest recession rates, due to rollover (68 m long-term recession). Total setback extent, including short-term variability, is projected to exceed 182 m in 5% of low dune areas. High rates of beach loss were associated with beaches fronting hard cliffs (55% beach loss) and seawalls (80%). The worst impacts are expected for rocky, sediment poor coastlines, such as the Great Ocean Road Surf Coast, where a loss of 30% to 50% of beaches is projected, not accounting for infrastructure and potential management interventions.

Automated morphological adaptation represents a step-change for regional scale coastal change assessment. The method also allows for coupling of future erosion to inundation hazards, by interpolating a 3D surface of future morphology. At local-scale, ShoreTrans is suitable to add to hybrid models, providing a means to improve future coastal change projections.

Keywords: coastal recession, cliff recession, coastal hazards, shoreline modelling, shoreface translation

As of December 30, 2024, ** economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of ***** percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with **** percent; and Russia with **** percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

This poll is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked to give their opinions of President George W. Bush and his handling of the presidency, the economy, education, environmental issues, the federal budget, the campaign against terrorism, and Social Security, as well as their views on Congress, the Republican party, the Democratic party, First Lady Laura Bush, and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. Those queried were asked which domestic and foreign policy issues should receive the administration's attention, which political party could be trusted to address these issues, and on what topics Bush should focus in his upcoming State of the Union speech. Respondents were asked to identify Bush's two most significant accomplishments and to assess his job performance during his first year in office. They were also asked whether Bush understood the problems of the average American, and whether big business, environmental groups, the oil/gas industry, and/or the American people had the appropriate amount of influence in the Bush administration. Opinions were elicited on the state of the nation's economy, how long the current economic recession would last, whether military spending or spending on social programs should be reduced to balance the federal budget, and whether the Bush administration was responsible for the budget deficit. Respondent views were sought on the 2001 collapse of the energy trading giant Enron Corporation. Topics covered whether the Enron situation was an isolated incident, whether new laws regulating corporate accounting practices or the enforcement of existing laws were necessary, the Bush administration's dealings with Enron, whether recipients of campaign contributions from Enron should disclose communications with Enron officials, and whether a full-scale federal investigation should be conducted. A series of questions addressed the ongoing war on terrorism. Topics covered respondent confidence in the ability of the United States government to prevent further terrorist attacks against Americans and to capture/kill Osama Bin Laden, whether his capture was necessary for the war to be considered a success, possible military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power, and whether non-citizens charged with terrorism should be put on trial in the United States court system or in a military tribunal. A series of questions focused on the benefits given to families of the victims of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Items focused on whether payments should be reduced for families that had other sources of financial benefits, whether victims of previous terrorist attacks should be paid similar benefits, and whether payments should be made to the families and victims of all future terrorist attacks. Respondents expressed their degree of confidence in the federal government's ability to actually solve a problem. Those queried gave their opinions on the amount of waste in military and domestic program spending by the United States government, whether they would rather work in the public or private sector, and whether a smaller government with fewer services or a larger government with many services was preferred. A series of questions focused on Saudi Arabia. Topics covered whether Saudi Arabia was an ally or enemy of the United States, the importance of maintaining good relations with them, and whether the United States was dependent on the oil it buys from Saudi Arabia. In addition, respondents were asked to give their views on whether the federal government should allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. Background information on respondents includes age, gender, political party, political orientation, voter registration and participation history, education, race, Hispanic descent, marital status, children in household, religion, labor union membership, urban/suburban/rural area of residence, whether close family/friends lost a job in the previous six months, and household income.

Stock prices of Vopak, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, was not heavily affected by the financial effects of the coronavirus outbreak. While the share price dropped by almost ** percent between mid-February and mid-March 2020, it quickly recovered - although it has been trending downwards since then for the remainder of 2020. As of April 19, 2023, the Vopak stock price stood at ***** euros, well below the price seen in July 2020.

Meanwhile, financial markets were looking at the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly facing the effects of an impending recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany contracted 0.30 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.