By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Looming Shadows: A Deep Dive into the Housing Market Recession

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Stock prices of Vopak, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, was not heavily affected by the financial effects of the coronavirus outbreak. While the share price dropped by almost 20 percent between mid-February and mid-March 2020, it quickly recovered - although it has been trending downwards since then for the remainder of 2020. As of April 19, 2023, the Vopak stock price stood at 35.45 euros, well below the price seen in July 2020.

Meanwhile, financial markets were looking at the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly facing the effects of an impending recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of Finland was 273 billion euros in 2023, an increase of around 7.2 billion euros compared with the previous year. Finland's GDP showed an upward trend from the early 2000’s until 2009, when the economy was strongly hit by the global financial crisis. Thereafter, the Finnish economy stagnated, and the GDP slowly resumed its growth. However, after a three-year recession between 2012 and 2014, the GDP growth rates remained relatively weak. Slow recovery after the financial crisis As a small open economy, Finland was severely affected by the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. While all euro-countries fell into recession in the early stages of the crisis, the recovery of the Finnish economy has been tardy, remaining below the EU average. Finland’s GDP drop in 2009 was the worst since the ‘great depression’ of the early 1990’s, from which the Finnish economy recovered relatively fast because of the strong Nokia-led ICT industry. By 2009, the backbones of Finnish economy, forest and ICT industry, had started to encounter difficulties in foreign trade. This declining value of foreign trade coupled with weaker international business conditions resulted in economic stagnation. Challenging outlook According to economic forecasts, the Finnish economy is expected to experience a slow growth rate of the GDP in the upcoming years. In recent years, the economic growth has been stronger, although Finland is still catching up to other similar EU countries in productivity, household income, and employment rate. Traditionally, the country’s strengths have been high-level education and skilled workforce, openness to investments, as well as stable institutions. However, the population is ageing and the public debt has risen almost 30 percent between 2008 and 2019. The future outlook is further challenged by the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

In 2023, Uber Eats generated approximately **** billion U.S. dollars in global revenue, surpassing food delivery competitors Delivery Hero and DoorDash, whose worldwide revenue amounted to about ** billion and *** billion U.S. dollars, respectively. Online food delivery boom The tremendous popularity that online food delivery garnered among consumers during the pandemic made many eager to invest in the booming sector. In 2021, the value of online food delivery funding worldwide reached a record-breaking **** billion U.S. dollars. That is nearly double the amount of funding the sector received in the previous year. As of January 2023, Delivery Hero had received the largest amount of funding among the leading food delivery companies at nearly ** billion dollars. In comparison, Just Eat Takeaway and DoorDash received *** billion and *** billion U.S. dollars in funding, respectively. Recession fears As global markets battled an impending recession in 2022, investment and growth in the online food delivery sector came to a grinding halt. In Europe, venture capital investment in food delivery experienced a dramatic decline: nearing * billion U.S. dollars at the height of the pandemic in 2021, funding dropped to less than *** billion in the following year. The food delivery sector’s recession woes also included several waves of mass layoffs that affected even the biggest players in the industry. As of January 2023, more than ***** Gopuff employees lost their jobs. DoorDash announced ***** layoffs in November 2022.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany expanded 0.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Stock prices of Unilever, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, decreased by over a quarter between February and March 2020, but has since partially recovered. This was decline was partly caused by concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly face the effects of a looming recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus. As of January 6, 2023 the stock price of Unilever stood at 47.68 euros, roughly nine euros less than the price in February 2020.

Worldwide car sales grew to around ** million automobiles in 2024, up from around **** million units in 2023. Throughout 2020 and 2021, the sector experienced a downward trend on the back of a slowing global economy, while COVID-19 and the Russian war on Ukraine contributed to shortages in the automotive semiconductor industry and further supply chain disruptions in 2022. Despite these challenges, 2023 and 2024 sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels and are forecast to keep rising through 2025. Covid-19 hits car demand It had been estimated pre-pandemic that international car sales were on track to reach ** million. While 2023 sales are still far away from that goal, this was the first year were car sales exceeded pre-pandemic values. The automotive market faced various challenges in 2023, including supply shortages, automotive layoffs, and strikes in North America. However, despite these hurdles, the North American market was among the fastest-growing regions in 2024, along with Eastern Europe and Asia, as auto sales in these regions increased year-on-year. Chinese market recovers After years of double-digit growth, China's economy began to lose steam in 2022, and recovery has been slow through 2023. China was the largest automobile market based on sales with around **** million units in 2023. However, monthly car sales in China were in free-fall in April 2022 partly due to shortages, fears over a looming recession, and the country grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. By June of that same year, monthly sales in China were closer to those recorded in 2021.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India expanded 7.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - India GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Chemical and food ingredient company IMCD, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, saw its stock price decrease by around a third over March 2020. This was partly caused by concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly face the effects of a looming recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus. As of January 6, 2023 the stock price of IMCD stood at 139.3 euros, a significant increase above its value in March 2020.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by *** percent and is expected to grow by just *** percent in 2025 and by *** percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to *** percent in 2027, and then grow by ***, and *** percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge *** percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by *** percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the *** percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from *** percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of *** percent predicated, up from *** percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be *** percent instead of *** percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent in Q3 and by *** percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

In the UK, several successful manufacturers are pioneering world-leading technologies. The Measuring, Testing and Navigational Equipment industry's high level of globalisation has provided some revenue opportunities but has left manufacturers vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. International trade plays a vital part, with a large proportion of revenue from outside the UK.Over the five years through 2023-24, revenue is expected to decline at a compound annual rate of 0.4% to £13.3 billion, including growth of 3% in 2023-24. The COVID-19 outbreak caused revenue to plunge during 2020-21. Following a solid resurgence in 2021-22, revenue grew in 2022-23, driven by healthy demand from downstream markets like the Aircraft, Engine and Parts Manufacturing industry following eased travel restrictions. However, bleak economic conditions have dampened revenue growth, with the cost of living crisis hurting demand and supply chain disruptions elevating purchase costs. These disruptions have shown signs of easing in 2023-24 to the relief of manufacturers, aiding the average profit margin.Revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.4% to £15.7 billion over the five years through 2028-29. Despite no longer bracing for an upcoming recession, subdued economic growth is set to continue hurting demand from manufacturing sectors. However, the government ramping up defence spending to offset spiralling inflation will aid revenue growth in the coming years. Continued investment in R&D will help manufacturers remain competitive against overseas markets. Demand from the Aircraft, Engine and Parts Manufacturing industry will likely reach post-pandemic levels in 2024, with sentiment and outlook across the sector remaining positive.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

Stock prices of Dutch-UK publishing house RELX, formerly Reed Elsevier and part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, decreased by over 30 percent between February and March 2020, and as of December 2020, sat around 20 percent below their February peak. This was partly caused by concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly face the effects of a looming recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus. As of January 6, 2023 the RELX stock price had partially recovered to 26.6 euros, above its March 2020 value.

Stock prices of semiconductor company ASML, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, fell by over a third between February and early March 2020. This was partly caused by concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly face the effects of a looming recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus. As of January 6, 2023 the ASML stock price was sitting at 551.5 euros, significantly above its level in early 2020.

The stock price of AkzoNobel, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, saw its stock price decrease by around 45 percent between February and March, 2020. This was partly caused by concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly face the effects of a looming recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus. As of January 6, 2023, the AkzoNobel stock price had degraded to reach 65.3 euros.

Steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal, headquartered in Luxembourg but part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, saw its stock price decrease by over 60 percent between February and March, 2020. This was partly caused by concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly face the effects of a looming recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus. As of January 6, 2023, the ArcelorMittal stock price was sitting at 26.99 euros, well above its value in March 2020.

Stock prices of ING Bank, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, decreased around 60 percent from February to March, 2020. This was partly caused by concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly face the effects of a looming recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus. As of January 6, 2023 the ING stock price had partially recovered to 12.32 euros - above its April 2020 value.

Stock prices of Aalberts NV, part of the AEX stock exchange in the Netherlands, decreased in early March 2020. This was partly caused by concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, as consumer demand could decrease and industries possibly face the effects of a looming recession in 2020. First estimates forecast that the Dutch economy, for example, could see its growth slow down significantly due to the new virus. As of January 6, 2023 the price of Aalberts NV stock had recovered to reach 40.76 euros - roughly 25 euros more than the lowest value found in March 2020.