Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short-term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994-2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model-implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.75 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Empirical models of the federal funds rate almost uniformly use the quarterly or monthly average of the daily rates. One empirical question about the federal funds rate concerns the extent to which monetary policymakers smooth this interest rate. Under the hypothesis of rate smoothing, policymakers set the interest rate this period equal to a weighted average of the rate inherited from the previous quarter and the rate implied by current economic conditions, such as the Taylor rule rate. Perhaps surprisingly, however, little attention has been given to measuring the interest rate inherited from the previous quarter. Previous tests for interest rate smoothing have assumed that the quarterly or monthly average from the previous period is the inherited rate. The authors of this study, in contrast, suggest that the end-of-quarter level of the target federal funds rate is the inherited rate, and empirical tests support this proposition. The authors show that this alternative view of the rate inherited from the past affects empirical results concerning interest rate smoothing, even in relatively rich models that include regime switching.

An index that can be used to gauge broad financial conditions and assess how these conditions are related to future economic growth. The index is broadly consistent with how the FRB/US model generally relates key financial variables to economic activity. The index aggregates changes in seven financial variables: the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the triple-B corporate bond yield, the Dow Jones total stock market index, the Zillow house price index, and the nominal broad dollar index using weights implied by the FRB/US model and other models in use at the Federal Reserve Board. These models relate households' spending and businesses' investment decisions to changes in short- and long-term interest rates, house and equity prices, and the exchange value of the dollar, among other factors. These financial variables are weighted using impulse response coefficients (dynamic multipliers) that quantify the cumulative effects of unanticipated permanent changes in each financial variable on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the subsequent year. The resulting index is named Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G). One appealing feature of the FCI-G is that its movements can be used to measure whether financial conditions have tightened or loosened, to summarize how changes in financial conditions are associated with real GDP growth over the following year, or both.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-06-24 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

Monetary policy, the yield curve and the private sector behaviour of the US economy are modelled as a time-varying structural vector autoregression. The monetary policy shocks of the early 1980s explain a large portion of the persistence of inflation and the level of the term structure. Changes in inflation expectations implied by the yield curve account for the persistence of the federal funds rate. Failures of the expectations hypothesis are rare, and coincided with the credibility building of Paul Volcker's Fed tenure at the beginning of the 1980s and the sequence of consecutive policy rate cuts around the time of the early 1990s recession.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for Pension Funds; Other Current Transfers Received, Implied Funding of Benefits from Holding Gains and Other Changes in Assets (IMA), Transactions (BOGZ1FA596403063Q) from Q1 1984 to Q1 2025 about receivables, gains/losses, transfers, pension, IMA, transactions, benefits, assets, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Pension Funds; Other Current Transfers Received, Contributions Received, Including Implied Funding of Benefits from Holding Gains and Other Changes in Assets (IMA), Transactions (BOGZ1FA596403175A) from 2001 to 2024 about receivables, gains/losses, transfers, pension, contributions, IMA, transactions, benefits, assets, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Government Defined Benefit Retirement Funds; Other Current Transfers Received, Contributions Received, Including Implied Funding of Benefits from Holding Gains and Other Changes in Assets (IMA), Transactions (BOGZ1FA346403115Q) from Q4 1946 to Q4 2023 about receivables, gains/losses, retirement, transfers, contributions, IMA, transactions, benefits, federal, assets, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Pension Funds; Other Current Transfers Received, Household Pension Contribution Supplements, Inlcluding Implied Funding of Benefits from Holding Gains and Other Changes in Assets (IMA), Transactions (BOGZ1FA596403165Q) from Q1 1984 to Q3 2021 about receivables, transactions, supplements, gains/losses, pension, transfers, contributions, IMA, benefits, households, assets, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Private Defined Benefit Pension Funds; Other Current Transfers Received, Household Pension Contribution Supplements, Including Implied Funding of Benefits from Holding Gains and Other Changes in Assets (IMA), Transactions (BOGZ1FA576403165A) from 1985 to 2023 about receivables, supplements, gains/losses, transfers, pension, contributions, IMA, transactions, benefits, assets, households, private, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Private Pension Funds; Other Current Transfers Received, Change in Benefit Entitlements from Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Plans, Including Implied Funding of Benefits from Holding Gains and Other Changes in Assets (IMA), Transactions (BOGZ1FA576403005Q) from Q1 1984 to Q4 2023 about receivables, gains/losses, transfers, pension, contributions, IMA, transactions, benefits, assets, private, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for State and Local Government Employee Defined Benefit Retirement Funds; Other Current Transfers Received, Change in Benefit Entitlements from Defined Benefit Plans, Including Implied Funding of Benefits from Holding Gains and Other Changes in Assets (IMA), Transactions (BOGZ1FA226403045Q) from Q4 1946 to Q4 2023 about receivables, gains/losses, transfers, state & local, IMA, transactions, benefits, assets, government, employment, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for CBOE Volatility Index: VIX (VIXCLS) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-06-23 about VIX, volatility, stock market, and USA.