As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.96% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points and is 0.56 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

In January 2020, prior to the onset of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, three of the seven largest economies by GDP had negative yields for two-year government bonds (Japan, Germany and France). With the onset of the pandemic, two-year bond yields in these countries actually rose slightly - in contrast to the other major economies, where yields fell over this period. As of December 2024, yields for two-year government bonds exhibited fluctuations across all countries. Notably, Japan showed a slight upward trend, while China experienced a modest decline.Negative yields assume that investors lack confidence in economic growth, meaning many investments (such as stocks) may lose value. Therefore, it is preferable to take a small loss on government debt that carries almost no risk to the investor, than risk a larger loss on other investments. As both the yen and euro are considered very safe assets, Japanese, German and French bonds were already being held by many investors prior to the pandemic as a hedge against economic downturn. Therefore, with the announcement of fiscal responses to the pandemic by many governments around March 2020, the value of these assets rose as confidence increased (slightly) that the worst case may be avoided. At the same time, yields on bonds with a higher return fell, as investors sought out investments with a higher return that were still considered safe.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ***** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.66% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0 points, though it remains 0.60 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-07-10 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.63% on July 13, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points and is 0.52 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.91% on July 14, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.08 points and is 0.56 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield (BAA) from Jan 1919 to Jun 2025 about Baa, bonds, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

U.S. ten-year government bonds have provided significantly higher yields compared to German ten-year bonds since 2008, with the former yielding 4.42 percent in May 2025 compared to 2.56 percent for the latter. Being safe but low-return investments, treasury bond yields are generally considered an indicator of investor confidence about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand, meaning that investors prefer to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite.

The yield on South Africa 10Y Bond Yield rose to 9.91% on July 14, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.19 points, though it remains 0.34 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. South Africa 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

This data collection consists of 2 data files (ZEROYLD3.txt and ZEROERR3.txt), giving the zero-coupon bond yields implicit in coupon-paying bonds and the associated standard errors, respectively. Data are given for 166 months for the period 03/1991-12/2004, and for 56 maturities which are monthly from 0 to 18 months, then quarterly to 2 years, then semi-annually to 3 years, then annually to 35 years, and finally for 40 years. This is an extension on data from McCulloch and Kwon(1993), (ZEROERR1.txt, ZEROERR2.txt, ZEROYLD1.txt, ZEROYLD2.txt).

The primary objective is to test whether behavioural models can explain the overwhelming evidence that yields on long bonds do not move in the way predicted by economic models. Theory implies that the yield on a long bond is determined by the expectation of the short yield over the life of the long bond, henceforth the REH. This gives rise to a number of testable implications for the movement of bond yields and these are widely rejected. The core idea that characterises Behavioural Finance is that investors may be subject to the same behavioural biases when they trade in financial markets that have been widely demonstrated by psychologists in laboratory experiments. Models that build on these two biases have been successful in explaining well-established anomalies in equity markets, especially short-term momentum and longer-term reversals in equity returns. If investors display this type of bias in the equity market when forecasting company earnings, we would expect them to display the same bias in the bond market when forecasting the short rate.

We also investigate whether the apparently irrational movements in long rates can be explained if we assume investors are rational but are uncertain about the model of the short rate. In this approach the rejections of the REH are not due to a failure of rationality but a failure of information. The conventional definition of the REH assumes expectations are generated “as if“agents know the true model. The key idea in the learning literature is that this information assumption is too strong. Movements in stock prices and returns may therefore reflect the process of learning. Learning may result in systematic patterns in stock returns that look remarkably like those that result from behavioural biases.

The yield on New Zealand 10Y Bond Yield rose to 4.54% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.06 points, though it remains 0.04 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. New Zealand 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-07-10 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

The yield on Japan 2 Year Bond Yield rose to 0.77% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points and is 0.44 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 2 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

View the average monthly yields of prime, investment-grade bonds with maturities over 20 years, which can indicate interest rates.

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of monetary policy on financial asset prices in Poland. Following Gürkaynak et al. (2005) I test how many factors adequately explain the variability of short-term interest rates around MPC meetings, finding that there are two such factors. The first one has a structural interpretation as a “current interest rate change” factor, and the second one as a “future interest rate changes” factor, with the latter related to MPC communication. Regression analysis shows that, controlling for foreign interest rates and global risk aversion, both MPC actions and communication matter for government bond yields, and that communication is more important for stock prices. Furthermore, the foreign exchange rate used to depreciate (appreciate) after MPC statements signalling tighter (easier) future monetary policy. However, the effect disappeared at the end of the sample. For most of the sample the exchange rate would appreciate (depreciate) or would not change in a statistically significant manner after an increase (a decrease) of the current interest rate. The results indicate that not only changes of the current interest rate but also MPC communication matters for financial asset prices in Poland. It has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in a low inflation and low interest rate environment.