The statistic shows GDP in India from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, GDP in India was at around 3.91 trillion U.S. dollars, and it is expected to reach six trillion by the end of the decade. See figures on India's economic growth here, and the Russian GDP for comparison. Historical development of the Indian economy In the 1950s and 1960s, the decision of the newly independent Indian government to adopt a mixed economy, adopting both elements of both capitalist and socialist systems, resulted in huge inefficiencies borne out of the culture of interventionism that was a direct result of the lackluster implementation of policy and failings within the system itself. The desire to move towards a Soviet style mass planning system failed to gain much momentum in the Indian case due to a number of hindrances, an unskilled workforce being one of many.When the government of the early 90’s saw the creation of small-scale industry in large numbers due to the removal of price controls, the economy started to bounce back, but with the collapse of the Soviet Union - India’s main trading partner - the hampering effects of socialist policy on the economy were exposed and it underwent a large-scale liberalization. By the turn of the 21st century, India was rapidly progressing towards a free-market economy. India’s development has continued and it now belongs to the BRICS group of fast developing economic powers, and the incumbent Modi administration has seen India's GDP double during its first decade in power.

This is the dataset of Historical GDP growth data of India from 1961 to 2021. Use this dataset to do Data Visualisation and Data Analytics.

Task : Predict year 2030 and 2050 GDP and Per Capita of India, and comment your results on Discussion page.

IntroductionThe combined populations of China and India were 2.78 billion in 2020, representing 36% of the world population (7.75 billion). Wheat is the second most important staple grain in both China and India. In 2019, the aggregate wheat consumption in China was 96.4 million ton and in India it was 82.5 million ton, together it was more than 35% of the world's wheat that year. In China, in 2050, the projected population will be 1294–1515 million, and in India, it is projected to be 14.89–1793 million, under the low and high-fertility rate assumptions. A question arises as to, what will be aggregate demand for wheat in China and India in 2030 and 2050?MethodsApplying the Vector Error Correction model estimation process in the time series econometric estimation setting, this study projected the per capita and annual aggregate wheat consumptions of China and India during 2019-2050. In the process, this study relies on agricultural data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAO) database (FAOSTAT), as well as the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) data catalog. The presence of unit root in the data series are tested by applying the augmented Dickey-Fuller test; Philips-Perron unit root test; Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, and Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test allowing for a single break in intercept and/or trend. The test statistics suggest that a natural log transformation and with the first difference of the variables provides stationarity of the data series for both China and India. The Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test, however, suggested that there is a structural break in urban population share and GDP per capita. To tackle the issue, we have included a year dummy and two multiplicative dummies in our model. Furthermore, the Johansen cointegration test suggests that at least one variable in both data series were cointegrated. These tests enable us to apply Vector Error Correction (VEC) model estimation procedure. In estimation the model, the appropriate number of lags of the variables is confirmed by applying the “varsoc” command in Stata 17 software interface. The estimated yearly per capita wheat consumption in 2030 and 2050 from the VEC model, are multiplied by the projected population in 2030 and 2050 to calculate the projected aggregate wheat demand in China and India in 2030 and 2050. After projecting the yearly per capita wheat consumption (KG), we multiply with the projected population to get the expected consumption demand.ResultsThis study found that the yearly per capita wheat consumption of China will increase from 65.8 kg in 2019 to 76 kg in 2030, and 95 kg in 2050. In India, the yearly per capita wheat consumption will increase to 74 kg in 2030 and 94 kg in 2050 from 60.4 kg in 2019. Considering the projected population growth rates under low-fertility assumptions, aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by more than 13% in 2030 and by 28% in 2050. Under the high-fertility rate assumption, however the aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by 18% in 2030 and nearly 50% in 2050. In the case of India, under both low and high-fertility rate assumptions, aggregate wheat demand in India will increase by 32-38% in 2030 and by 70-104% in 2050 compared to 2019 level of consumption.DiscussionsOur results underline the importance of wheat in both countries, which are the world's top wheat producers and consumers, and suggest the importance of research and development investments to maintain sufficient national wheat grain production levels to meet China and India's domestic demand. This is critical both to ensure the food security of this large segment of the world populace, which also includes 23% of the total population of the world who live on less than US $1.90/day, as well as to avoid potential grain market destabilization and price hikes that arise in the event of large import demands.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the BRICS countries have been considered the five foremost developing economies in the world. Originally, the term BRIC was used by economists when talking about the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, however these countries have held annual summits since 2009, and the group has expanded to include South Africa since 2010. China has the largest GDP of the BRICS country, at 16.86 trillion U.S. dollars in 2021, while the others are all below three trillion. Combined, the BRICS bloc has a GDP over 25.85 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022, which is slightly more than the United States. BRICS economic development China has consistently been the largest economy of this bloc, and its rapid growth has seen it become the second largest economy in the world, behind the U.S.. China's growth has also been much faster than the other BRICS countries; for example, when compared with the second largest BRICS economy, its GDP was less than double the size of Brazil's in 2000, but is almost six times larger than India's in 2021. Since 2000, the country with the second largest GDP has fluctuated between Brazil, Russia, and India, due to a variety of factors, although India has held this position since 2015 (when the other two experienced recession), and it's growth rate is on track to surpass China's in the coming decade. South Africa has consistently had the smallest economy of the BRICS bloc, and it has just the third largest economy in Africa; its inclusion in this group is due to the fact that it is the most advanced and stable major economy in Africa, and it holds strategic importance due to the financial potential of the continent in the coming decades. Future developments It is predicted that China's GDP will overtake that of the U.S. by the end of the 2020s, to become the largest economy in the world, while some also estimate that India will also overtake the U.S. around the middle of the century. Additionally, the BRICS group is more than just an economic or trading bloc, and its New Development Bank was established in 2014 to invest in sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy across the globe. While relations between its members were often strained or of less significance in the 20th century, their current initiatives have given them a much greater international influence. The traditional great powers represented in the Group of Seven (G7) have seen their international power wane in recent decades, while BRICS countries have seen theirs grow, especially on a regional level. Today, the original BRIC countries combine with the Group of Seven (G7), to make up 11 of the world's 12 largest economies, but it is predicted that they will move further up on this list in the coming decades.