In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USARECDM) from 1947-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 1.20000 Percentage Points in July of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 18 Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 17 Mar 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 18 Mar 2025, with 62199 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 18 Mar 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S079: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (INDREC) from May 1996 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and India.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Feb 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in February of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in February of 1887. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

In a June 2022 survey, more than half of Americans believed that the best indicator of whether or not the country is experiencing a recession was the prices of goods and services they buy. This response was given by 54 percent of the respondents. A further 20 percent felt that the unemployment rate and job reports are the best indicator.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Germany from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DEURECD) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Germany.

OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Peak through the Trough (OECDRECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about OECD Economies, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on February of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Switzerland from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (CHEREC) from Feb 1960 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, Switzerland, and recession indicators.

OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in May of 1962 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1960. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Regression results by country: Explanatory variable is Gross National Income (GNI) per capita PPP-adjusted.

In a November 2022 survey, over three quarters of Republicans believed that the United States is currently experiencing an economic recession, as opposed to only 41 percent of Democrats. In the same survey, approximately half of the respondents said that the best indicator of a recession was the prices of goods and services.