The industry is composed of non-depository institutions that conduct primary and secondary market lending. Operators in this industry include government agencies in addition to non-agency issuers of mortgage-related securities. Through 2025, rising per capita disposable income and low levels of unemployment helped fuel the increase in primary and secondary market sales of collateralized debt. Nonetheless, due to the pandemic and the sharp contraction in economic activity in 2020, revenue gains were limited, but have climbed as the economy has normalized and interest rates shot up to tackle rampant inflation. However, in 2024 the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as inflationary pressures eased and is expected to be cut further in 2025. Overall, these trends, along with volatility in the real estate market, have caused revenue to slump at a CAGR of 1.5% to $485.0 billion over the past five years, including an expected decline of 1.1% in 2025 alone. The high interest rate environment has hindered real estate loan demand and caused industry profit to shrink to 11.6% of revenue in 2025. Higher access to credit and higher disposable income have fueled primary market lending over much of the past five years, increasing the variety and volume of loans to be securitized and sold in secondary markets. An additional boon for institutions has been an increase in interest rates in the latter part of the period, which raised interest income as the spread between short- and long-term interest rates increased. These macroeconomic factors, combined with changing risk appetite and regulation in the secondary markets, have resurrected collateralized debt trading since the middle of the period. Although the FED cut interest rates in 2024, this will reduce interest income for the industry but increase loan demand. Although institutions are poised to benefit from a strong economic recovery as inflationary pressures ease, relatively steady rates of homeownership, coupled with declines in the 30-year mortgage rate, are expected to damage the primary market through 2030. Shaky demand from commercial banking and uncertainty surrounding inflationary pressures will influence institutions' decisions on whether or not to sell mortgage-backed securities and commercial loans to secondary markets. These trends are expected to cause revenue to decline at a CAGR of 0.8% to $466.9 billion over the five years to 2030.

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to **** percent in 2023, up from the record-low **** percent in 2021. In 2024, interest rates declined slightly. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

Over the current period, waterproofing contractors have faced an overall decline in revenue. While the residential construction market performed well for some of the current period, consistently slow commercial construction activity hindered growth. Over the past five years, industry-wide revenue has been declining at an expected CAGR of 2.2%, reaching an estimated $5.2 billion in 2024, when revenue is set to increase 0.1% and profit is expected to have fallen to 7.2%. The outbreak of COVID-19 had mixed effects on waterproofing contractors. Low interest rates meant to spur the economy led to a housing market boom, driving industry demand through private spending on home improvements and housing starts. Despite low interest rates, economic uncertainty and falling corporate profit led to falling commercial construction activity. As interest rates have been elevated from 2022 into 2024, when the Federal reserve has begun to cut rates, residential and commercial construction activity has fallen. Elevated wage and purchase costs have drove down average industry profit margins in recent years. Over the outlook period, waterproofing contractors will return to growth. Growing housing starts will bolster waterproofing contractors' growth as mortgage rates eventually drop. Private spending on home improvements returning to growth will be a boon to contractors. An uptick in commercial building construction activity over the outlook period as interest rates continue to drop will also promote growth. Tax incentives for energy-efficient residential and commercial buildings will greatly benefit waterproofing contractors. Overall, industry revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.6% to reach $5.6 in 2029.

Mortgage interest rates worldwide varied greatly in 2024, from less than **** percent in many European countries, to as high as ** percent in Turkey. The average mortgage rate in a country depends on the central bank's base lending rate and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and forecast economic growth. Since 2022, inflationary pressures have led to rapid increase in mortgage interest rates. Which are the leading mortgage markets? An easy way to estimate the importance of the mortgage sector in each country is by comparing household debt depth, or the ratio of the debt held by households compared to the county's GDP. In 2023, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada had some of the highest household debt to GDP ratios worldwide. While this indicator shows the size of the sector relative to the country’s economy, the value of mortgages outstanding allows to compare the market size in different countries. In Europe, for instance, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France were the largest mortgage markets by outstanding mortgage lending. Mortgage lending trends in the U.S. In the United States, new mortgage lending soared in 2021. This was largely due to the growth of new refinance loans that allow homeowners to renegotiate their mortgage terms and replace their existing loan with a more favorable one. Following the rise in interest rates, the mortgage market cooled, and refinance loans declined.

North America REIT Market size was valued at USD 282.5 Billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 344.2 Billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 2.50% from 2024 to 2031.

North America REIT Market Drivers

Strong Economic Growth: A healthy economy with low unemployment and rising consumer confidence drives demand for real estate across various sectors, benefiting REITs. Favorable Interest Rate Environment: Historically low-interest rates have made borrowing costs for REITs more affordable, enabling them to expand their portfolios and pursue acquisitions. Investor Interest: REITs offer attractive investment opportunities for investors seeking stable income streams and diversification benefits. Technological Advancements: Technological advancements in areas like property technology (PropTech) are enhancing operational efficiency, improving tenant experiences, and creating new revenue streams for REITs.

Workers' compensation insurance agencies have endured the harsh end of the price cycle through the past five years but have managed to reverse early challenges. Initially, insurers entered a phase where they lowered premiums to gain market share, resulting in declining revenue as competition intensified. Some agencies faced financial difficulties, leading to closures or buyouts by more successful firms, which increased market concentration. Premiums later rose again as dominant agencies gained more influence over prices, bringing better returns per employee. At the same time, a massive resurgence in trucking activity boosted the number of workplace deaths, exacerbating more price hikes. Investment income has also fluctuated significantly. Returns dropped when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates during the pandemic but rebounded as interest rates surged to 22-year highs. Overall, revenue has declined at a CAGR of 1.6% during the current period, reaching $56.7 billion in 2024. This includes a 1.1% rise in revenue in 2024. Workplace safety enhancements are boosting workers' compensation insurers' profit. Many industries are implementing advanced safety measures such as automation and ergonomic improvements, reducing the number of workplace injuries. Insurers offer favorable premium rates to businesses prioritizing safety, encouraging clients to invest in accident mitigation. Safer workplaces have driven workers' compensation insurers' combined ratio to historic lows, representing solid profit. Consolidation will continue over the next five years, supporting robust pricing control for dominant insurance providers. Insurers will incentivize accident mitigation efforts, which may slow revenue growth amid increased competition but sustain profit through reduced claims. Ongoing mergers and acquisitions will improve efficiency and market control for larger insurers. The Federal Reserve's high interest rates will sustain strong investment returns through the early part of the next period, though prolonged high interest rates may discourage companies from expanding workforces and mitigate growth for workers' compensation insurers. Overall, revenue is set to swell at a CAGR of 0.8% during the outlook period, reaching $59.2 billion in 2029.

Consistent growth in assets under management (AUM) has immensely benefited the Hedge Funds industry over the past five years. Industry servicers invest capital they receive from a variety of investor types across a broad range of asset classes and investment strategies. Operators collect a fee for the amount of money they manage for these clients and a percentage of gains they are able to generate on invested assets. This business model helped industry revenue climb at a CAGR of 7.7% to $127.4 billion over the past five years, including an expected incline of 5.7% in 2024. Despite economic volatility in 2020 due to the pandemic lowering interest rates, an incline in the value of stocks in 2020 positively affected many hedge funds. The S&P 500 climbed 16.3% in 2020, which helped increase AUM. Although industry professionals question the relevance of benchmarking hedge fund returns against equity performance, given that hedge funds rely on a range of instruments other than stocks, the industry's poor performance relative to the S&P 500 has begun to raise concern from some investors. These trends have affected the industry's structure, with the traditional 2.0 and 20.0 structure of a flat fee on total AUM and a right-to-earned profit deteriorating into a 1.4 and 16.0 arrangement. As a result, industry profit, measured as earnings before interest and taxes, has been hindered over the past five years. Industry revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% to $148.5 billion over the next five years. AUM is forecast to continue increasing at a consistent rate, partly due to the diversification benefits that hedge funds provide. Nonetheless, increased regulation stemming from the global financial crisis and an escalating focus on the industry's tax structure has the potential to harm industry profit. Further economic uncertainty stemming from heightened inflation and persistently high interest rates is anticipated to dampen any large-scale growth for the industry as more hedge funds take a hawkish approach in their investment portfolio moving forward. Regardless, the number of new hedge funds is forecast to trend with AUM and revenue over the next five years.

Snapshot img

US Retail Banking Market Size 2025-2029

The US retail banking market size is forecast to increase by USD 92.1 billion at a CAGR of 4.2% between 2024 and 2029.

The Retail Banking Market in the US is witnessing significant shifts driven by the ongoing Digital transformation. Banks are increasingly adopting cloud-based solutions to enhance customer experience, streamline operations, and reduce costs. This trend is reshaping the competitive landscape, as traditional players race to keep pace with fintech disruptors. However, this digital evolution brings new challenges. Cybersecurity threats are on the rise, with financial institutions becoming prime targets for hackers.
As the industry continues to digitize, ensuring robust security measures will be crucial to safeguard sensitive customer information and maintain trust. Balancing the benefits of digital innovation with the need for robust security will be a key strategic priority for retail banks in the US.

What will be the size of the US Retail Banking Market during the forecast period?

Explore in-depth regional segment analysis with market size data - historical 2019-2023 and forecasts 2025-2029 - in the full report.
Request Free Sample

In the dynamic retail banking market of the US, digital transformation is a key trend, with financial institutions optimizing their branch networks and embracing virtual assistants for enhanced customer experience. Customer segmentation, fueled by big data and data visualization, enables personalized financial services and product offerings. data security is paramount, with AI and machine learning employed for fraud prevention and regulatory compliance. Digital onboarding streamlines the loan approval process, while open banking and financial wellness initiatives promote financial inclusion. Credit scores and interest rates remain critical factors, with marketing automation and predictive analytics driving targeted customer engagement.
Fees and charges, a significant concern for customers, are being addressed through transparency and innovation. Cloud computing and machine learning are revolutionizing risk management and loan underwriting. Overall, the retail banking landscape is characterized by continuous innovation, driven by the integration of technology and customer-centric strategies.

How is this market segmented?

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Type

  Private sector banks
  Public sector banks
  Foreign banks
  Community development banks
  Non-banking financial companies


Service

  Saving and checking account
  Personal loan
  Mortgages
  Debit and credit cards
  Others


Channel

  Direct sales
  Distributor


Geography

  North America

    US

By Type Insights

The private sector banks segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The US retail banking market is undergoing significant transformation, driven by technological innovations, changing consumer preferences, and regulatory shifts. Fintech companies are disrupting traditional banking models with user-friendly interfaces, digital marketing, and financial education tools. Retirement planning, Personal Loans, and savings accounts are increasingly being offered through digital channels, enhancing financial empowerment and convenience. Branch banking still holds importance for customer experience and face-to-face interactions, but online banking, mobile banking, and ATM access ensure round-the-clock access to financial services. Insurance products, checking accounts, and email marketing are essential tools for customer acquisition and retention. Blockchain technology, data analytics, and artificial intelligence are revolutionizing financial services, with applications in fraud detection, investment services, and peer-to-peer lending.

Regulatory compliance and customer satisfaction are critical factors in this evolving landscape, with regulatory changes enabling financial inclusion and fostering competition. Auto loans, mortgage loans, and credit cards remain popular offerings, with digital wallets and debit cards providing additional convenience. As consumer expectations continue to shift towards seamless, personalized experiences, banks must prioritize user experience (UX) and customer satisfaction. In the private sector, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank lead the market, offering comprehensive financial services to high-net-worth individuals. Regulatory changes and technological advancements have facilitated the entry of new players, making the market increasingly competitive. Overall, the US retail banking market is witnessing a dynamic and innovative period, with a focus on meeting the diverse needs of consum

Strong returns in various financial markets and increased trading volumes have benefited businesses in the industry. Companies provide underwriting, brokering and market-making services for different financial instruments, including bonds, stocks and derivatives. Businesses benefited from improving macroeconomic conditions despite high inflationary economic environment. However, in 2024, the Fed slashed interest rates as inflationary pressures eased , limiting interest income from fixed-income securities for the industry. The Fed seeks to further cut interest rates but will monitor inflation, employment, the effects of tariffs and other economic factors before making further rate cut decisions. Overall, revenue has been growing at a CAGR of 7.0% over the past five years and is expected to total $456.6 billion in 2025, with revenue expected to decline 0.9% in the same year. In addition, industry profit is expected to climb to 13.0% over the five years to 2025. While many industries struggled at the onset of the period due to economic disruptions due to the pandemic and supply chain issues, businesses benefited from the volatility. Primarily, companies have benefited from increased trading activity on behalf of their clients due to fluctuations in asset prices. This has led to higher trade execution fees for firms at the onset of the period. Similarly, debt underwriting increased as many businesses have turned to investment bankers to help raise cash for various ventures. Also, improved scalability of operations, especially regarding trading services conducted by securities intermediates, has helped increase industry profits. Structural changes have forced the industry's smaller businesses to evolve. Because competing in trading services requires massive investments in technology and compliance, boutique investment banks have alternatively focused on advising in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Boutique investment banks' total share of M&A revenue is forecast to grow through the end of 2030. Furthermore, the industry will benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions as inflationary pressures are expected to ease. This will help asset values rise and interest rate levels to be cut, thus allowing operators to generate more from equity underwriting and lending activities. Overall, revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% to $507.9 billion over the five years to 2030.

Business brokers endured significant hardship amid economic headwinds, slumping new deal volumes and the persistent effects of national interest rates on businesses’ acquisition capacity. Despite the higher access to credit, business brokers endured sharp declines, particularly in 2022 and 2023, due to inflationary spikes, rising interest rates and an inconsistent mergers & acquisition (M&A) climate. In contrast to merger and acquisition advisers, business brokers focus on companies valued at less than $2.0 million, often finding the ultimate buyer near the company's location. According to S&P Global, overall transaction values slumped to $1.0 trillion in 2024 from a high of $1.8 trillion in 2021, which limited the range of lucrative contracts available for brokers and bolstered local competition across the small business space. The acceleration of interest rates in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation also curtailed small businesses’ fiscal flexibility and lowered commission revenue from business transactions for brokers. Revenue fell at a CAGR of 3.3% to an estimated $1.0 billion over the past five years, including an estimated 1.8% boost in 2025 alone. Brokers’ lack of market concentration continues to influence the national landscape. In 2022, 47.6% of all business brokers were nonemploying establishments, which traditionally earn between 5.0% and 10.0% of the ultimate sale price in commission. In recent years, optimism surrounding the business-for-sale market has increased among business brokers; however, the effects of high interest rates and a restrictive borrowing environment remains the biggest barrier to further growth, according to the IBBA. A slowdown in the M&A space, coupled with greater proliferation of DIY alternatives, caused profit to stagnate. Moving forward, the continued uncertainty surrounding interest rates, higher borrowing costs and deceleration in the number of businesses and aggregate private investment is expected to yield slower revenue growth. Nonetheless, the continuity of lower middle market (LMM) transaction demand, coupled with favorable demographic trends, will benefit brokers. A rapidly rising retiree population, as evident by the anticipated 2.4% boost in adults over the age of 65, will generate more business sale opportunities across different geographies. The expansion of technology will allow brokers to expand service efficiency, reducing dependence on manual labor by automating remedial tasks such as data gathering and market research. However, local competitors and the continued presence of DIY alternatives will dampen larger growth. Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.0% to an estimated $1.2 billion over the next five years.

Credit card processors and money transferring companies have witnessed substantial growth fueled by an expanding adoption of electronic payments. Recent trends show a remarkable increase in electronic transactions, with more businesses embracing a credit card-friendly approach. This has directly contributed to burgeoning revenue streams for providers. The heightened use of debit and credit cards, along with solid economic growth that has bolstered consumer spending and per capita disposable income, underpin this upward trajectory. Additionally, digitization trends, accelerated by the push towards e-commerce, have further cemented the integration of cards in everyday transactions, demonstrating the industry's resilience and adaptability to evolving market demands. Shifting economic conditions have significantly impacted revenue volatility for credit card processors and money transfer services. Initially, the pandemic reduced consumer spending, leading to a decreased demand for these services in 2020. Despite this, e-commerce sales surged, permitting some stability in revenue. As the US economy reopened, consumer spending increased, leading to substantial revenue growth in 2021. However, rampant inflation in 2022 dampened e-commerce performance, yet high wage growth kept revenue positive. This inflation also caused consumers to bolster their use of credit cards to cover rising expenses, raising profit. More recently, recessionary fears, spurred by higher interest rates, further constrained consumer spending and corporate expenditures, slowing growth. Despite these challenges, strong e-commerce activities have kept the industry resilient. Overall, revenue for credit card processing and money transferring companies has swelled at a CAGR of 6.9% over the past five years, reaching $147.7 billion in 2025. This includes a 2.7% rise in revenue in that year. Looking forward, economic growth is expected to alleviate recessionary fears and reinvigorate consumer spending. This, coupled with falling interest rates, should enhance market conditions and foster stronger revenue growth trajectories for providers. Increasing emphasis on security through biometric authentication and AI-driven solutions promises to elevate user confidence, making digital payment methods even more attractive. As cash use dwindles, the reliance on digital payment forms will surge, creating opportunities for both established players and emerging entrants. Larger providers will likely wield their financial clout to innovate and expand market reach, while smaller entities may need to differentiate and innovate to sustain competitive advantages. Overall, revenue for credit card processors and money transferrers is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 3.1% over the next five years, reaching $171.9 billion in 2030.

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lenders' revenue has remained stagnant but climbed slightly at a CAGR of 0.0% to $1.7 billion over the five years to 2024, including an expected increase of 3.2% in 2024 alone. Pioneered and introduced in the United Kingdom in 2005, P2P lending platforms facilitate loans from individual investors that pool their money via operators' online platforms to loan money to consumers and small businesses. The industry's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary credit evaluation algorithms, which go beyond FICO credit scores used by traditional lending institutions. Companies in the industry have struggled to create formulas that accurately portray the level of risk certain loans represent, leading to higher-than-desired loan default rates initially. On average, major P2P platforms have prospered, with the largest player in the industry, LendingClub Corporation, turning a profit for the first time in 2013. However, the pandemic and the subsequent economic slowdown resulted in falling consumer confidence in 2020. This drop in consumer confidence affected overall revenue growth over the past five years. Following the pandemic and elevated interest rates, operators earned higher interest fees, which increased revenue in the current period. However, in 2024 interest rates were cut which will reduce interest fees for the industry. Peer-to-peer lenders' revenue is expected to lag at a CAGR of 0.2% to $1.7 billion over the five years to 2029. In the same year, profit is projected to remain negative and account for negative 0.5%. Small businesses will likely be less willing to consider P2P lenders than commercial banks and other traditional loan sources as the prime rate decreases in the outlook period. One of the key advantages of P2P lending platforms is their ability to offer lower interest rates to borrowers because they cut out many of the financial intermediaries typically involved with lending.

Credit repair service providers identify errors in credit reporting and dispute inaccurate information with the appropriate organizations to improve credit ratings. The industry's performance often behaves countercyclically to the overall economy. Despite this, revenue fell during COVID-19 as massive government aid pushed up savings. These savings kept consumers financially stable, so demand credit repair services declined in 2020. As economic restrictions were lifted, many households went on a spending spree and ruined their credit, so revenue for the industry rose in 2021. While interest rates have been volatile, they've risen over time as the Federal Reserve has increased borrowing costs to cool the economy. Higher interest rates make it harder for consumers to pay off debt, ruining their credit. This raises demand for the industry's services. Overall, revenue for credit repair service providers is expected to increase at a CAGR of 2.8% during the current period, reaching $6.6 billion in 2023. Revenue is anticipated to rise 2.5% in that year.The industry will grow modestly in the near future, but it will face some challenges. The outlook period will be marked by significant volatility, as determinants of revenue (e.g., consumer spending, interest rates, corporate profit) will shift significantly over this time frame. The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to bring the inflation rate down to 2.0%. Since the cost of borrowing will continue to increase, the industry will benefit. Economic growth will be strong, making individuals more credit-worthy and reducing demand for credit repair services. Individuals will be more able to repair their credit on their own as online resources get more comprehensive. Overall, revenue for credit repair service providers is forecast to cincrease at a CAGR of 1.0% during the outlook period, reaching $7.0 billion in 2028. Profit is expected to comprise 10.1% of revenue in that year.

The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry has witnessed significant transformation with the surge of data center REITs as a crucial asset class. Demand for hyperscale and edge computing facilities has been propelled by advancements in technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G, supported by industry giants like Digital Realty and Equinix. Office REITs are recovering, facilitated by up-cycling in 2024 because of more significant leasing activity and return-to-office mandates. Strategically placed office spaces in urban cores are seeing increased demand, boosting property valuations and lease renewals, instilling renewed investor confidence in REITs. Through the end of 2025, industry revenue climbed at a CAGR of 0.9% to $243.7 billion, including a 4.4% gain in 2025 alone, when profit will reach 23.5%. The REIT industry has also seen marked consolidation activity. Despite elevated interest rates, publicly traded REITs raised $84.7 billion in 2024, signaling a strong appetite for acquisitions and displaying the benefits of having scope, scale and a robust operating platform. A strong PropTech adoption trend is evident, with AI, IoT and blockchain integrated into property operations to improve efficiency, reduce costs and enhance tenant experiences. This drive toward innovation helps the industry to better navigate economic challenges like elevated interest rates and inflation. Through the end of 2030, the REIT industry is expected to see favorable developments. Interest rates are expected to moderate over the next five years, easing borrowing costs for REITs and positively affecting their acquisitions and development strategies. Demand for healthcare-related properties will strengthen because of an aging US population and healthcare REIT's position as a resilient sector. The importance of data centers as a REIT asset class will gain, driven by the continuous advancements in AI and increased data operation transfers to the cloud. With an environment conducive to mergers and acquisitions, consolidation will continue, creating fewer but more substantial REITs that are better armed to navigate economic uncertainties and capitalize on sector-specific tailwinds. Industry revenue will climb at a CAGR of 1.6% to $264.0 billion through the end of 2030.