This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected.

This statistic shows the unadjusted annual inflation rate and monetary base growth rate in the United States from 1960 to 2019. Historic data is shown in 3-year increments. In 2019, prices went up by 1.6 percent compared to 2018. In the same time frame, the monetary base decreased by approximately 0.8 percent.

In September 2025, prices had increased by three percent compared to September 2024, according to the 12-month percentage change in the consumer price index — the monthly inflation rate for goods and services in the United States. The data represents U.S. city averages. In economics, the inflation rate is a measure of the change in price level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. A projection of the annual U.S. inflation rate can be accessed here and the actual annual inflation rate since 1990 can be accessed here. InflationOne of the most important economic indicators is the development of the Consumer Price Index in a country. The change in this price level of goods and services is defined as the rate of inflation. The inflationary situation in the United States had been relatively severe in 2022 due to global events relating to COVID-19, supply chain restraints, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More information on U.S. inflation may be found on our dedicated topic page. The annual inflation rate in the United States has increased from 3.2 percent in 2011 to 8.3 percent in 2022. This means that the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has weakened in recent years. The purchasing power is the extent to which a person has available funds to make purchases. According to the data published by the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about 258.84 in 2020 and is forecasted to grow up to 325.6 by 2027, compared to the base period from 1982 to 1984. The monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban consumers in the United States was 0.1 percent in March 2023 compared to the previous month. In 2022, countries all around the world are experienced high levels of inflation. Although Brazil already had an inflation rate of 8.3 percent in 2021, compared to the previous year, while the inflation rate in China stood at 0.85 percent.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in US Monetary Policy and the Recent Surge in Inflation, PIIE Working Paper 24-13.

If you use the data, please cite as:

Reifschneider, David. 2024. US Monetary Policy and the Recent Surge in Inflation. PIIE Working Paper 24-13. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Money Market: Effective Federal Funds Rate data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Money Market: Effective Federal Funds Rate data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jun 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 259 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.008 % in 01 Jan 2024 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Money Market: Effective Federal Funds Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Headline.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. Wikipedia

United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Money Market: Broad General Collateral Rate data was reported at 0.001 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.001 % for 05 May 2025. United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Money Market: Broad General Collateral Rate data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jun 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 259 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.914 % in 13 Nov 2023 and a record low of 0.000 % in 10 Mar 2025. United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Money Market: Broad General Collateral Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Headline.

Dataset

This dataset was created by Timal Peramune

Contents

The rate at which prices for goods and services are generally rising and, as a result, currency's purchasing power is declining is known as inflation. Central banks attempt to limit inflation—and avoid deflation—in order to keep the economy running smoothly. Each unit of currency may purchase fewer products and services as prices rise. This results in a reduction in the actual value of money, a process that impacts every level of the economy, from consumers to governments. The percentage change in the cost of a basket of goods and services over a certain time period, often a year, is measured by the inflation rate. It’s a key metric for assessing the health of an economy, showing how much more expensive everyday goods and services have become. The change in the average price level of a basket of goods and services over a year is represented by the inflation rate average consumer prices (annual per cent change). It’s calculated by taking the average of prices across all months of a given year compared to the previous year. This metric is determined by averaging monthly price data and comparing it to the average of the previous year. It provides a broader view of inflation trends across a longer time frame, smoothing out any short-term volatility. The Inflation rate, end of period consumer prices (annual per cent change) reflects the price level change from the end of one period (typically December) to the end of the next period (the following December). Instead of taking an average, this rate focuses on the price level at a specific point in time, providing a snapshot of inflation. It’s calculated by comparing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the final month of the year with the CPI of the last month of the previous year.

This dataset provides a comprehensive collection of monthly U.S. macroeconomic indicators spanning January 2000 to December 2024.

It was designed specifically for machine learning-based inflation forecasting and includes key economic factors historically associated with inflation trends:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Inflation Rate
• Unemployment Rate
• Federal Funds Rate
• M2 Money Supply
• Crude Oil Prices (WTI)
• Producer Price Index (PPI)

Primary Goal: Build predictive models to forecast year-over-year inflation rates

Possible Use Cases:

• Forecasting inflation using machine learning models like XGBoost, Random Forest, or LSTM.
• Studying relationships between macroeconomic factors and inflationary pressure.
• Comparing classical econometric approaches with modern AI-based forecasting techniques.

Structure: Each CSV contains a Date column and corresponding metric values, making it easy to merge and align data for analysis.

License: MIT License – free to use for research and educational purposes.

Sweden Inflation Expectation: TNS: Avg: Money Market Players: Year 1 data was reported at 2.053 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.008 % for Jul 2018. Sweden Inflation Expectation: TNS: Avg: Money Market Players: Year 1 data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.639 % from Oct 2001 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 69 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.824 % in Jul 2008 and a record low of 0.576 % in Jan 2015. Sweden Inflation Expectation: TNS: Avg: Money Market Players: Year 1 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by TNS Prospera. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Sweden – Table SE.I032: Inflation Expectation: TNS Prospera.

Sweden Inflation Expectation: TNS: Avg: Money Market Players: Year 5 data was reported at 2.026 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.989 % for Jul 2018. Sweden Inflation Expectation: TNS: Avg: Money Market Players: Year 5 data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.022 % from Oct 2001 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 69 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.288 % in Oct 2008 and a record low of 1.654 % in Jan 2015. Sweden Inflation Expectation: TNS: Avg: Money Market Players: Year 5 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by TNS Prospera. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Sweden – Table SE.I032: Inflation Expectation: TNS Prospera.

Keynote remarks by Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014 Inflation Conference: "Inflation, Monetary Policy, and the Public" - The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, OH - May 30, 2014

Due to the recent hyperinflation crisis in Venezuela, the average inflation rate in Venezuela is estimated to be around 225 percent in 2026. However, this is well below the peak of 63,000 percent observed in 2018.What is hyperinflation?In short, hyperinflation is a very high inflation rate that accelerates quickly. It can be caused by a government printing huge amounts of new money to pay for its expenses. The subsequent rapid increase of prices causes the country’s currency to lose value and shortages in goods to occur. People then typically start hoarding goods, which become even more scarce and expensive, money becomes worthless, financial institutions go bankrupt, and eventually, the country’s economy collapses. The Venezuelan descent into hyperinflationIn Venezuela, the economic catastrophe began with government price controls and plummeting oil prices, which caused state-run oil companies to go bankrupt. The government then starting printing new money to cope, thus prices rose rapidly, unemployment increased, and GDP collapsed, all of which was exacerbated by international sanctions. Today, many Venezuelans are emigrating to find work and supplies elsewhere, and population growth is at a decade-low. Current president Nicolás Maduro does not seem inclined to steer away from his course of price controls and economic mismanagement, so the standard of living in the country is not expected to improve significantly anytime soon.

Inflation Rate in Argentina decreased to 31.30 percent in October from 31.80 percent in September of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Argentina Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Loretta J. Mester-President and Chief Executive Officer-Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Distinguished Speaker Series-Massachusetts Institute of Technology Golub Center for Finance and Policy - Cambridge, MA, September 26, 2022, 4:10 p.m. EDT

Inflation Rate in Iran increased to 45.30 percent in September from 42.40 percent in August of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Iran Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This panel dataset contains quarterly series on inflation targets, bands, and track records for 41 inflation targeting countries from 1990 to 2024. Data on inflation targets and bands are collected through each central bank’s historical documents and rules-based track record measures are calculated by the author to assess actual inflation outcomes with respect to the central banks’ stated policy objectives. The dataset supports research work in Zhang (2025), Zhang and Wang (2022), and Zhang (2021). Please cite the papers when using the data.

Z. Zhang, Does inflation targeting track record matter for asset prices? Evidence from stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Volume 101, 2025, 102141. Z. Zhang, S. Wang, Do actions speak louder than words? Assessing the effects of inflation targeting track records on macroeconomic performance, 2022, IMF Working Papers 2022/227.
Z. Zhang, Stock returns and inflation redux: An explanation from monetary policy in advanced and emerging markets, 2021, IMF Working Papers 2021/219.