BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Somewhat Greater Than Normal data was reported at 8.781 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 10.056 % for Mar 2025. BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Somewhat Greater Than Normal data is updated monthly, averaging 19.817 % from Oct 2011 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 163 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 36.698 % in Feb 2022 and a record low of 3.319 % in May 2020. BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Somewhat Greater Than Normal data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I121: Business Inflation Expectations Survey. Business Inflation Expectations Survey Questionnaire: How do your SALES LEVELS compare with “normal” times?

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

Replication datasets and codes for "Inflation, Economic Growth and Interest Rates"

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and July 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services: Business Process Management Services (PCU5182105182101) from Dec 2000 to Jul 2025 about information technology, management, processed, business, services, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Midsize Firms data was reported at -8.930 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of -6.646 % for Jan 2025. BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Midsize Firms data is updated quarterly, averaging -3.660 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 26 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.300 % in Jul 2019 and a record low of -22.300 % in Apr 2020. BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Midsize Firms data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I121: Business Inflation Expectations Survey. Business Inflation Expectations Survey Questionnaire: By roughly what percent are your firm's unit sales levels above/below “normal,” if at all?

Almost ********** of small businesses preparing holiday season inventory in the United Kingdom said in a 2022 survey that in that year, they had ordered business inventory stock earlier and in larger quantities than usual.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Explore the impact of inflation in Japan on living costs, with households and businesses facing increasing financial pressures amid rising prices for essentials.

We study the impact of targeted price controls on supermarket products in Argentina between 2007 and 2015. Using web-scraping methods, we collected daily prices for controlled and non-controlled goods and examined the differential effects of the policy on inflation, product availability, entry and exit, and price dispersion. We first show that price controls have only a small and temporary effect on inflation that reverses itself as soon as the controls are lifted. Second, contrary to common beliefs, we find that controlled goods are consistently available for sale. Third, firms compensate for price controls by introducing new product varieties at higher prices, thereby increasing price dispersion within narrow categories. Overall, our results show that targeted price controls are just as ineffective as more traditional forms of price controls in reducing aggregate inflation.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Offices of Lawyers: Bankruptcy and Other Business and Commercial Legal Services (PCU541110541110903) from Dec 2014 to Aug 2025 about legal, commercial, business, services, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Roughly ************ of small businesses preparing holiday season inventory in the United States said in a 2022 survey that in that year, they had ordered business inventory stock earlier and in larger quantities than usual.

United States BIE: Unit Cost vs Last Yr: Mean data was reported at 2.228 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.398 % for Mar 2025. United States BIE: Unit Cost vs Last Yr: Mean data is updated monthly, averaging 1.789 % from Oct 2011 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 163 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.397 % in Jul 2022 and a record low of 1.100 % in Oct 2011. United States BIE: Unit Cost vs Last Yr: Mean data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I121: Business Inflation Expectations Survey.

United States BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Mean data was reported at -7.594 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of -6.525 % for Jan 2025. United States BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Mean data is updated quarterly, averaging -4.699 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 26 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.299 % in Apr 2022 and a record low of -31.600 % in Apr 2020. United States BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Mean data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I121: Business Inflation Expectations Survey.

This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods’ prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of “pure” inflation: the common component in goods’ inflation rates that has an equiproportional effect on all prices and is uncorrelated with relative price changes at all dates. The estimates of pure inflation and of the aggregate relative-price components allow us to re-examine three classic macro-correlations. First, we find that pure inflation accounts for 15-20% of the variability in overall inflation, so that most changes in inflation are associated with changes in goods’ relative prices. Second, we find that the Phillips correlation between inflation and measures of real activity essentially disappears once we control for goods’ relative-price changes. Third, we find that, at business-cycle frequencies, the correlation between inflation and money is close to zero, while the correlation with nominal interest rates is around 0.5, confirming previous findings on the link between monetary policy and inflation.

To mitigate the impact of inflation in 2023, most business-to-business (B2B) buyers revised their relationships with key suppliers in France. According to a survey, nearly **** in *** B2B buyers tried to obtain better supplying conditions in order to generate operational savings. As an alternative, ** percent of surveyed buyers simply looked for other suppliers offering better options. Last in the ranking came tasks automation, as ** percent of respondents considered this action effective in facing the inflationary crisis.

IBISWorld examines the potentially significant effects of a global recession on domestic industries, businesses and consumers.

We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes, and average prices paid by consumers ("effective" prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many US metropolitan areas. Inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers. This difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers, a feature of the data which we document and quantify, rather than sales. We propose a simple model with household store-switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers. (JEL D12, E31, E32, L25, L81)

President Trump's tariffs on China have disrupted American businesses, causing price hikes and economic uncertainty. Learn about the impact on the promotional products market and broader economic indicators.

ABSTRACT This paper builds on the theory of regulation developed by Stigler and Peltzman. According to these authors, a regulator chooses his/her strategy seeking to maximize political support from consumers and producers, viewing welfare and efficiency as secondary issues. This process determines a regulated price that is between the competitive and monopolistic levels. Our paper develops a modified version of Peltzman’s model by considering the idea that the regulator’s behaviour might change with the proximity of elections. The addition of a timing dimension to the problem and its implication for consumers, producers and the regulator’s behavior suggest that the optimal strategy now implies in a price cycle in regulated industries. The regulator has incentives to impose higher prices when elections are relatively far ahead and lower (real) prices in periods that immediately precede an important election. We show that the Brazilian gasoline market between 1969-1984 supports our results.