As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (DLTIIT) from 2000-01-03 to 2025-11-28 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The yield curve, also called the term structure of interest rates, refers to the relationship between the remaining time-to-maturity of debt securities and the yield on those securities. Yield curves have many practical uses, including pricing of various fixed-income securities, and are closely watched by market participants and policymakers alike for potential clues about the markets perception of the path of the policy rate and the macroeconomic outlook. This page provides daily estimated real yield curve parameters, smoothed yields on hypothetical TIPS, and implied inflation compensation, from 1999 to the present. Because this is a staff research product and not an official statistical release, it is subject to delay, revision, or methodological changes without advance notice.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield held steady at 1.83% on December 2, 2025. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points, though it remains 0.16 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

A yield curve (which can also be known as the term structure of interest rates) represents the relationship between market remuneration (interest) rates and the remaining time to maturity of debt securities. The information content of a yield curve reflects the asset pricing process on financial markets. When buying and selling bonds, investors include their expectations of future inflation, real interest rates and their assessment of risks. An investor calculates the price of a bond by discounting the expected future cash flows.

The European Central Bank estimates zero-coupon yield curves for the euro area and derives forward and par yield curves. A zero coupon bond is a bond that pays no coupon and is sold at a discount from its face value. The zero coupon curve represents the yield to maturity of hypothetical zero coupon bonds, since they are not directly observable in the market for a wide range of maturities. The yields must therefore be estimated from existing zero coupon bonds and fixed coupon bond prices or yields. The forward curve shows the short-term (instantaneous) interest rate for future periods implied in the yield curve. The par yield reflects hypothetical yields, namely the interest rates the bonds would have yielded had they been priced at par (i.e. at 100).

Bonds are removed if their yields deviate by more than twice the standard deviation from the average yield in the same maturity bracket. Afterwards, the same procedure is repeated.

This dataset contains the monthly nominal yields of 10-year US Treasury bonds, sourced from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRED).

The 10-year Treasury yield is widely regarded as a benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States. It reflects investor sentiment about economic growth, inflation expectations, and monetary policy. Analysts, economists, and investors often use this indicator to track shifts in the bond market and assess the overall economic outlook.

Why This Matters

• Economic Indicator. Serves as a proxy for long-term borrowing costs.
• Market Benchmark. Affects pricing of mortgages, corporate debt, and other financial instruments.
• Policy Insights. Closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, economists, and policymakers for clues about inflation and growth.

Potential Use Cases

• Time series analysis and forecasting of interest rates.
• Studying the relationship between bond yields, stock markets, and economic cycles.
• Macro-financial research, portfolio risk management, and policy analysis.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.86% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.20 points and is 0.78 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United Kingdom (IRLTLT01GBM156N) from Jan 1960 to Oct 2025 about long-term, 10-year, United Kingdom, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

In 2024, the average yearly yield of UK 10-year government bonds was **** percent. The UK 10-year gilt has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2024. Starting at nearly ** percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of **** percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Oct 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Abstract (en): This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected. (1) The file submitted is the data file 9811WD.DAT. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

In September 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In September 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 17 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.3 percent in September 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 8 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

A yield curve (which can also be known as the term structure of interest rates) represents the relationship between market remuneration (interest) rates and the remaining time to maturity of debt securities. The information content of a yield curve reflects the asset pricing process on financial markets. When buying and selling bonds, investors include their expectations of future inflation, real interest rates and their assessment of risks. An investor calculates the price of a bond by discounting the expected future cash flows.

The European Central Bank estimates zero-coupon yield curves for the euro area and derives forward and par yield curves. A zero coupon bond is a bond that pays no coupon and is sold at a discount from its face value. The zero coupon curve represents the yield to maturity of hypothetical zero coupon bonds, since they are not directly observable in the market for a wide range of maturities. The yields must therefore be estimated from existing zero coupon bonds and fixed coupon bond prices or yields. The forward curve shows the short-term (instantaneous) interest rate for future periods implied in the yield curve. The par yield reflects hypothetical yields, namely the interest rates the bonds would have yielded had they been priced at par (i.e. at 100).

Bonds are removed if their yields deviate by more than twice the standard deviation from the average yield in the same maturity bracket. Afterwards, the same procedure is repeated.

The yield on France 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.49% on December 1, 2025, marking a 0.07 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points and is 0.57 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS20) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-11-28 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield eased to 13.41% on December 1, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.40 points and is 0.04 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Inflation: Friend or Foe to the Stock Market?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Context

GDPC1 - time series representing real GDP measured quarterly spanning from 1947 to 2018 in billions of dollars, adjusted for inflation and chained to 2012 dollars

DGS2 - time series representing 2Y treasury constant maturity rate measured daily in % spanning from 1976 to 2019

T10Y2Y - time series representing 10Y treasury yields minus 2Y treasury yields measured daily , spanning from 1976 to 2018

USREC - time series represents when the US experienced recession spanning from 1854 to 2018 measured daily. A '1' indicating that the US is in a period of recession and '0' indicating that the US is not in a period of recession

Content

Each CSV file has only two columns, the first column representing the date and the second column representing the value of the time series as indicated above. Missing values are represented by '.'

Acknowledgements

All data was downloaded from the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)

Inspiration

• Recently it was reported that bond yields inverted leading some to fear economic recession in the near future. Is there truth to these fears?

• Is there any relationship between real GDP and bond yields

• Can you use bond yields to predict real GDP?

• Is there any validity to the notion that bond yield inversions are leading indicators of economic recession?

• What other datatypes besides bond yields can we use to improve predictions of real gdp?

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.25% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points and is 0.13 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

ABSTRACT: The paper estimates the fiscal cost of an increase in the Brazilian policy interest rate - the SELIC - by considering not only the direct effect on the yield of public bonds that are indexed to the SELIC, but also indirect effects on: (i) the yield of public bonds that are indexed to the exchange rate and inflation, and (ii) the stock of public net debt through adjustments in the value of international reserves measured in domestic currency. Projections are based on the estimation of the relationship between interest rates, exchange rates and inflation by means of a vector auto-regression. We conclude that the inclusion of such indirect effects has an ambiguous effect on the response of the implicit interest rate on public net debt to shocks in the SELIC, when adjustments in the value of international reserves are not considered. However, the inclusion of the latter amplifies the fiscal cost of a more restrictive monetary policy. These results call for a better coordination between monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies in Brazil.