Since early 2021, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Using a combination of data, economic theory, and narrative information around historical events, we empirically assess what has caused persistently elevated inflation. Our estimates suggest that both aggregate demand and supply factors, including supply chain disruptions, have contributed significantly to high inflation.

According to a survey conducted in March 2024, 45 percent of U.S. Generation Z consumers were purchasing meat/poultry/fish less often due to rising prices and/or supply shortages. Another 44 percent were purchasing snacks/desserts less often for the same reason.

Food inflation remains higher than measures of overall inflation, and labor markets have been tight. We find that processed food products have driven recent increases in grocery prices, and we argue that labor market tightness affects the prices of these labor-intensive products in particular through increases in production and distribution costs. Food inflation at grocery stores could remain elevated if price pressures on the supply side persist and demand for food at home remains strong.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

The UK inflation rate was 3.8 percent in September 2025, unchanged from the previous two months, and the fastest rate of inflation since January 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the education sector, at 7.5 percent, with prices increasing at the slowest rate in the clothing and footwear sector. The Cost of Living Crisis High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23. Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.

Building materials made of steel, copper and other metals had some of the highest price growth rates in the U.S. in the first half of 2025 in comparison to the previous year. The growth rate of the cost of several construction materials was slightly lower than in late 2024. It is important to note, though, that the figures provided are Producer Price Indices, which cover production within the United States, but do not include imports or tariffs. This might matter for lumber, as Canada's wood production is normally large enough that the U.S. can import it from its neighboring country. Construction material prices in the United Kingdom Similarly to these trends in the U.S., at that time the price growth rate of construction materials in the UK were generally lower 2024 than in 2023. Nevertheless, the cost of some construction materials in the UK still rose that year, with several of those items reaching price growth rates of over **** percent. Considering that those materials make up a very big share of the costs incurred for a construction project, those developments may also have affected the average construction output price in the UK. Construction material shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, there often were supply problems and material shortages, which created instability in the construction market. According to a survey among construction contractors, the construction materials most affected by shortages in the U.S. during most of 2021 were steel and lumber. This was also a problem on the other side of the Atlantic: The share of building construction companies experiencing shortages in Germany soared between March and June 2021, staying at high levels for over a year. Meanwhile, the shortage of material or equipment was one of the main factors limiting the building activity in France in June 2022.

Data for the manuscript entitled "Global Financial Crisis, Covid-19, and Russia-Ukraine War: Are the Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks on Global Inflation Different?

The pace of regional factory growth slowed slightly but remained strong. Firms continued to report negative impacts from higher inflation and supply shortages. Nearly 70% of all firms reported worse supply disruptions and shortages compared with 2021, with most expecting conditions to last another six months or longer.

In 2024, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom was 2.5 percent, with the average rate for 2025 predicted to rise to 3.2 percent, revised upwards from an earlier prediction of 2.6 percent. The UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite an uptick in inflation expected in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.1 percent in 2026, and two percent between 2027 and 2029. UK inflation crisis Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. Inflation rises across in the world in 2022 The UK was not alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.

Energy commodity price inflation in Hungary increased significantly in 2022. Gas price inflation recorded the highest increase, reaching 120 percent in October 2022. Energy commodity prices have increased in light of the Russia-Ukraine war and an ongoing fuel supply shortage. However, since July 2023, energy commodity price inflation has shown a decline in the country.

This November, the price for fresh whole body turkeys surpassed November 2020 figures by 9%, while frozen whole body turkeys jumped 20% y-o-y. A short supply of workers led to lower turkey output and higher prices on the backdrop of consistently strong consumer demand. Turkey imports to the U.S. maintained the previous year’s levels. Canada and Chile remain the only turkey suppliers to America. Unprecedented inflation rates have struck the entire food sector, in October 2021, price increases for meats, poultry, fish and eggs became the highest recorded in the past 30 years.

In case prices for goods and services go up significantly in 2023, over ** percent of consumers around the world said they would shop less in general and cut down on spending as a response. A fifth of survey respondents said they would look for and purchase cheaper and better value products. Less than **** percent of those surveyed worldwide believed inflation would be unlikely to impact their habits. What does inflation look like? The world entered a new inflation crisis in 2021, driven by a confluence of factors including the COVID-19 pandemic which restricted global supply chains, and the Russian-Ukraine war which exacerbated food and energy shortages. In 2022, global inflation hit **** percent, the highest annual increase in decades. The rate of inflation is estimated to remain high in the near future, at around *** percent in 2023 and *** percent in 2024. Inflation dominated the list of most important problems facing the world according to a survey conducted in October 2023 – leading ahead of poverty and social inequality, crime and violence, and unemployment. In a global consumer trends survey, the majority of respondents said that inflation impacted them completely or a lot – for instance, ***** in ** respondents in the United States admitted they had been seriously impacted. Inflation’s impact on the holidays The end-of-year holiday season is typically regarded as a period of increased retail spending, driven by a series of major shopping events such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday, as well as the public holidays Thanksgiving and Christmas. However, inflation has put a damper on the holiday cheer, with consumers expressing their intentions to cut back spending amid the cost-of-living crisis. In 2022, a significant share of consumers in Europe said they planned to cut at least some related expenses. In fact, ** percent of respondents in the United Kingdom planned to cut all expenses related to Black Friday and Christmas.

Hospitals play a critical role in healthcare, offering specialized treatments and emergency services essential for public health, regardless of economic fluctuations or individuals' financial situations. Rising incomes and broader access to insurance have fueled demand for care in recent years, supporting hospitals' post-pandemic recovery initiated by federal policies and funding. The recovery for many hospitals was also promoted by mergers that lessened financial strains, especially in rural hospitals. This trend toward consolidation has resulted in fewer enterprises relative to establishments, enhancing hospitals' bargaining power regarding input costs and insurance reimbursements. With this improved position, hospitals are expected to see revenue climb at a CAGR of 2.0%, reaching $1.5 trillion by 2025, with a 3.2% increase in 2025 alone. Competition, economic conditions and regulatory changes will impact hospitals based on size and location. Smaller hospitals, particularly rural ones, may encounter more significant obstacles as the industry transitions from fee-based to value-based care. Independent hospitals face wage inflation, staffing shortages and drug supply costs. Although state and federal policies aim to support small rural hospitals in addressing hospital deserts, uncertainties linger over federal Medicare funding and Medicaid reimbursements, which account for nearly half of hospital care spending. Even so, increasing per capita disposable income and increasing the number of individuals with private insurance will boost revenues from private insurers and out-of-pocket payments for all hospitals, big and small. Hospitals will continue incorporating technological advancements in AI, telemedicine and wearables to enhance their services and reduce cost. These technologies aid hospital systems in strategically expanding outpatient services, mitigating the increasing competitive pressures from Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASCs) and capitalizing on the increased needs of an aging adult population and shifts in healthcare delivery preferences. As the consolidation trend advances and technology adoption further leverages economies of scale, industry revenue is expected to strengthen at a CAGR of 2.4%, reaching $1.7 trillion by 2030, with steady profit over the period.

In September 2025, the UK inflation rate for goods was 2.9 percent and 4.7 percent for services. Prices for goods accelerated significantly, sharply between 2021 and 2022, before falling in 2023. By comparison, prices for services initially grew at a more moderate rate but have also not fallen as quickly. The overall CPI inflation rate for the UK reached a recent high of 11.1 percent in October 2022 and remained in double figures until April 2023, when it fell to 8.7 percent. As of this month, the UK's inflation rate was 3.6 percent, up from 3.4 percent in the previous month. Sectors driving high inflation In late 2024, communication was the sector with the highest inflation rate, with prices increasing by 6.1 percent as of December 2024. During the recent period of high inflation that eased in 2023, food and energy prices were particular high, with housing and energy inflation far higher than in any other sector, peaking at 26.6 percent towards the end of 2022. High food and energy prices since 2021 have been one of the main causes of the cost of living crisis in the UK, especially for low-income households that spend a higher share of their income on these categories. This is likely one of the factors driving increasing food bank usage in the UK, which saw approximately 3.12 million people use a food bank in 2023/24, compared with 1.9 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The global inflation crisis The UK has not been alone in suffering rapid price increases since 2021. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of economic and geopolitical shocks had a dramatic impact on the global economy. A global supply chain crisis failed to meet rising demand in 2021, leading to the beginning of an Inflation Crisis, which was only exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war directly influenced the prices of food and energy, as both countries were major exporters of important crops. European imports of hydrocarbons from Russia were also steadily reduced throughout 2022 and 2023, resulting in higher energy prices throughout the year.

The German inflation rate has returned to normal levels of around 2.2 percent, based on preliminary figures for 2024. Compared to skyrocketing rates in 2022 and 2023, this can be seen as an improvement of the national economic situation. Various factors influenced the recent development of inflation in Germany. These are the same that pushed inflation levels around the rest of the world, particularly since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. The most recent recorded annual inflation rate in Germany is within the normal range defined by central banks internationally, which is generally between 1.5 and four percent a year. The 2.2 percent for 2024 are not only noticeably lower than the preceding two years, but also less than in 2021, one of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown years in Germany. 2022 and 2023 followed on the heels of the challenges posed by the pandemic which were already straining the national economy: supply chain interruptions and delays, transport problems, labor shortages across sectors and industries. These issues continue to partially impact the economy today.

In northern Ethiopia, Tigray continues to be blockaded. The 2021 crop yield was just 25-50 percent of what it would be in a regular year. At the beginning of March 2022, colleagues and friends in Tigray provided us with average statistics on the cost of living in Tigray (especially food). Farmlands had been poorly ploughed and planted lately or not at all due to military targeting of farming activities. Hence, every crop has gotten more costly. As a result of distress or desperation sales, the price of live animals has dropped dramatically. Coffee, firewood, gasoline, and transportation have also seen significant price rises. Extreme shortages of food and energy supplies drive up inflation, but the fact that there are very limited amounts of cash in circulation curbs it.

The United Kingdom Full Service Restaurant (FSR) market, spanning 2019-2033, presents a dynamic landscape shaped by evolving consumer preferences and economic factors. While precise market size figures for the base year (2025) are unavailable, a reasonable estimation can be made based on reported CAGRs and general market trends. Assuming a moderate CAGR (let's assume 3% for illustrative purposes, adjust as needed with further information), and considering the significant presence of established chains and independent operators, the UK FSR market likely exceeded £15 billion in 2025. Key drivers include rising disposable incomes, increasing urbanization, and the growing popularity of diverse cuisines beyond traditional British fare. Trends like experiential dining, personalized service, and sustainable practices are gaining traction, influencing restaurant strategies. Restraints include rising operating costs (inflation impacting food and labor), supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating consumer confidence. The market segmentation reveals significant opportunities. The Asian, European, and North American cuisine segments likely dominate, with chained outlets holding a larger market share than independent ones. Location-wise, leisure and retail locations probably represent the most significant shares, reflecting consumer behavior. Companies such as Mitchells & Butlers, Nando's, and Pizza Hut are major players, showcasing both the established presence of international chains and the ongoing relevance of regional independent businesses. The forecast period (2025-2033) suggests continued growth driven by innovation, adaptation to changing consumer needs, and expansion into new areas of service and delivery. The UK FSR market is segmented across various factors, offering avenues for targeted market analysis. The cuisine segment showcases the diversity of offerings, while the outlet type (chained vs. independent) highlights the competitive dynamics. Location-based segmentation provides insights into consumer behavior and the spatial distribution of restaurants. The study period’s historical data (2019-2024) is crucial for understanding past performance and informing future predictions. Analyzing this data with the projected CAGR will facilitate robust forecasting and strategic decision-making for both established players and new entrants seeking to capitalize on the opportunities within the UK FSR market. The impact of external factors like Brexit and economic fluctuations needs to be considered for refined forecasts. Future growth will likely depend on adapting to post-pandemic consumer preferences and successfully navigating the challenges posed by inflation and labor shortages. Recent developments include: February 2023: The Big Table Group announced that it would use PolyAI's customer-led conversational assistant to enhance customer service and foster its expansion. The Big Table Group added that it had accomplished its goal of answering 100% of customer calls at its Bella Italia and Café Rouge restaurants owing to PolyAI.November 2022: Just Eat and Uber Eats collaborated with PizzaExpress. To address the increased demand for delivery before the first-ever Winter World Cup, expected to be a popular time for American Hots and Peronis to be delivered straight to consumers' doors, PizzaExpress engaged in these new collaborations.October 2022: Pizza Hut introduced "Melts," a new product category with a wide range of offerings, including Pizza Hut MeltsTM. Pizza Hut MeltsTM are cheesy, crunchy, stuffed with toppings, and served with a perfectly matched dip.. Notable trends are: A significant rise in tourist arrivals is driving substantial growth in the market, and new trends in dining contributing the market growth.

The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheaval for both businesses and individuals. Recognizing the magnitude of these challenges, academic literature has directed its attention toward conducting immediate research in this crucial area. This study sets out to investigate key economic factors that have influenced various sectors of the UK economy and have broader economic implications within the context of Brexit and COVID-19. The factors under scrutiny include the unemployment rate, GDP index, earnings, and trade. To accomplish this, a range of data analysis tools and techniques were employed, including the Box-Jenkins method, neural network modeling, Google Trend analysis, and Twitter-sentiment analysis. The analysis encompassed different periods: pre-Brexit (2011-2016), Brexit (2016-2020), the COVID-19 period, and post-Brexit (2020-2021). The findings of the analysis offer intriguing insights spanning the past decade. For instance, the unemployment rate displayed a downward trend until 2020 but experienced a spike in 2021, persisting for a six-month period. Meanwhile, total earnings per week exhibited a gradual increase over time, and the GDP index demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2020 but declined during the COVID-19 period. Notably, trade experienced the most significant decline following both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the impact of these events exhibited variations across the UK’s four regions and twelve industries. Wales and Northern Ireland emerged as the regions most affected by Brexit and COVID-19, with industries such as accommodation, construction, and wholesale trade particularly impacted in terms of earnings and employment levels. Conversely, industries such as finance, science, and health demonstrated an increased contribution to the UK’s total GDP in the post-Brexit period, indicating some positive outcomes. It is worth highlighting that the impact of these economic factors was more pronounced on men than on women. Among all the variables analyzed, trade suffered the most severe consequences in the UK. By early 2021, the macroeconomic situation in the country was characterized by a simple dynamic: economic demand rebounded at a faster pace than supply, leading to shortages, bottlenecks, and inflation. The findings of this research carry significant value for the UK government and businesses, empowering them to adapt and innovate based on forecasts to navigate the challenges posed by Brexit and COVID-19. By doing so, they can promote long-term economic growth and effectively address the disruptions caused by these interrelated issues.

Analysis of America's beef supply crisis with record prices, declining cattle herds, and rising Brazilian imports despite 50% tariffs, featuring insights from JBS executive Wesley Batista.

In 2024, Japan had an average inflation rate of 2.74 percent. Japan's inflation rate had hit a record high in 2023 at 3.27 percent, marking the highest rate of inflation in Japan in recent times. However, this figure was still very low compared to most other major economies, such as Japan's fellow G7 members, four of which had inflation rates around six or seven percent in 2023 due to the global inflation crisis. Why is Japan's inflation rate lower? There are a number of contributing factors to Japan's relatively low inflation rate, even during economic crises. Japan eased its Covid restrictions more slowly than most other major economies, this prevented post-pandemic consumer spending that may have driven inflation through supply chain issues caused by higher demand. As the majority of Japan's food and energy comes from overseas, and has done so for decades, the government has mechanisms in place to prevent energy and wheat prices from rising too quickly. Because of this, Japan was able to shield its private sector from many of the negative knock on effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which had a significant impact on both sectors globally. Persistent deflation and national debt An additional factor that has eased the impact of inflation on Japan's economy is the fact that it experienced deflation before the pandemic. Deflation has been a persistent problem in Japan since the asset price bubble burst in 1992, and has been symptomatic of Japan's staggering national debt thereafter. For almost 30 years, a combination of quantitative easing, low interest rates (below 0.5 percent since 1995, and at -0.1% since 2016), and a lack of spending due to low wages and an aging population have combined to give Japan the highest national debt in the world in absolute terms, and second-highest debt in relation to its GDP, after Venezuela. Despite this soaring debt, Japan remains the fourth-largest economy in the world, behind the U.S., China, and Germany.