Unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 4.30 percent in August from 4.20 percent in July of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment from Q1 1949 to Q4 2035 about NAIRU, long-term, projection, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Abstract

This dataset includes economic statistics on inflation, prices, unemployment, and pay & benefits provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

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Update frequency: Monthly Dataset source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Terms of use: This dataset is publicly available for anyone to use under the following terms provided by the Dataset Source - http://www.data.gov/privacy-policy#data_policy - and is provided "AS IS" without any warranty, express or implied, from Google. Google disclaims all liability for any damages, direct or indirect, resulting from the use of the dataset. See the GCP Marketplace listing for more details and sample queries: https://console.cloud.google.com/marketplace/details/bls-public-data/bureau-of-labor-statistics

In 2023, it was estimated that over 161 million Americans were in some form of employment, while 3.64 percent of the total workforce was unemployed. This was the lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s, although these figures are expected to rise in 2023 and beyond. 1980s-2010s Since the 1980s, the total United States labor force has generally risen as the population has grown, however, the annual average unemployment rate has fluctuated significantly, usually increasing in times of crisis, before falling more slowly during periods of recovery and economic stability. For example, unemployment peaked at 9.7 percent during the early 1980s recession, which was largely caused by the ripple effects of the Iranian Revolution on global oil prices and inflation. Other notable spikes came during the early 1990s; again, largely due to inflation caused by another oil shock, and during the early 2000s recession. The Great Recession then saw the U.S. unemployment rate soar to 9.6 percent, following the collapse of the U.S. housing market and its impact on the banking sector, and it was not until 2016 that unemployment returned to pre-recession levels. 2020s 2019 had marked a decade-long low in unemployment, before the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic saw the sharpest year-on-year increase in unemployment since the Great Depression, and the total number of workers fell by almost 10 million people. Despite the continuation of the pandemic in the years that followed, alongside the associated supply-chain issues and onset of the inflation crisis, unemployment reached just 3.67 percent in 2022 - current projections are for this figure to rise in 2023 and the years that follow, although these forecasts are subject to change if recent years are anything to go by.

In 1990, the unemployment rate of the United States stood at 5.6 percent. Since then there have been many significant fluctuations to this number - the 2008 financial crisis left millions of people without work, as did the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of 2022 and throughout 2023, the unemployment rate came to 3.6 percent, the lowest rate seen for decades. However, 2024 saw an increase up to four percent. For monthly updates on unemployment in the United States visit either the monthly national unemployment rate here, or the monthly state unemployment rate here. Both are seasonally adjusted. UnemploymentUnemployment is defined as a situation when an employed person is laid off, fired or quits his work and is still actively looking for a job. Unemployment can be found even in the healthiest economies, and many economists consider an unemployment rate at or below five percent to mean there is 'full employment' within an economy. If former employed persons go back to school or leave the job to take care of children they are no longer part of the active labor force and therefore not counted among the unemployed. Unemployment can also be the effect of events that are not part of the normal dynamics of an economy. Layoffs can be the result of technological progress, for example when robots replace workers in automobile production. Sometimes unemployment is caused by job outsourcing, due to the fact that employers often search for cheap labor around the globe and not only domestically. In 2022, the tech sector in the U.S. experienced significant lay-offs amid growing economic uncertainty. In the fourth quarter of 2022, more than 70,000 workers were laid off, despite low unemployment nationwide. The unemployment rate in the United States varies from state to state. In 2021, California had the highest number of unemployed persons with 1.38 million out of work.

Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 7.152 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.136 % for 2021. Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 8.407 % from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2022, with 33 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.280 % in 1990 and a record low of 7.136 % in 2021. Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ireland – Table IE.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Unemployment Rate in China increased to 5.30 percent in August from 5.20 percent in July of 2025. This dataset provides - China Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The misery index is an economic indicator that combines the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Although it is rare for both unemployment and inflation to be high at the same time, there have been instances of this occurring, such as during episodes of stagflation in the 1970s. Due to high levels of inflation since late 2021, the misery index in March 2023 is at a relatively high rate of 8.49 percent.

Unemployment Rate in Germany remained unchanged at 6.30 percent in August. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 3.514 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.480 % for 2021. Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.462 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.744 % in 1993 and a record low of 2.775 % in 1985. Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Norway – Table NO.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Graph and download economic data for Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) from Q1 1949 to Q4 2031 about NAIRU, short-term, projection, unemployment, rate, and USA.

In 2024, the rate of surveyed unemployment in urban areas of China amounted to approximately 5.1 percent. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.1 percent in 2025 and the following years. Monthly unemployment ranged at a level of around 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Unemployment rate in China In 2017, the National Statistics Bureau of China introduced surveyed unemployment as a new indicator of unemployment in the country. It is based on monthly surveys among the labor force in urban areas of China. Surveyed unemployment replaced registered unemployment figures, which were often criticized for missing out large parts of the urban labor force and thereby not presenting a true picture of urban unemployment levels. However, current unemployment figures still do not include rural areas.A main concern in China’s current state of employment lies within the large regional differences. As of 2021, the unemployment rate in northeastern regions of China was notably higher than in China’s southern parts. In Beijing, China’s political and cultural center, registered unemployment ranged at around 3.2 percent for 2021. Indicators of economic activities Apart from the unemployment rate, most commonly used indicators to measure economic activities of a country are GDP growth and inflation rate. According to an IMF forecast, GDP growth in China will decrease to about four percent in 2025, after five percent in 2023, depicting a decrease of more than six percentage points from 10.6 percent in 2010. Quarterly growth data published by the National Bureau of Statistics indicated 5.4 percent GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025.

Unemployment Rate in Japan decreased to 2.30 percent in July from 2.50 percent in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Japan Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The average unemployment rate was six percent in Germany in 2024. Since 2005, the rate of unemployment has generally been declining, though a slight increase was evident in recent years. Unemployment in Germany and comparison with other countries Germany has a comparatively low unemployment rate compared to its European neighbors, and they are expected to stay at around three percent over the next few years. This is a result of the damage the economy suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the lockdown, most businesses were closed, and many companies lost revenue meaning employees were let go. It is also possible that higher unemployment figures will continue into later years because of inflation and rising energy prices. There is also a slightly higher unemployment rate among men than there is among women. Social support Social support is money paid out to those who are unable to work for some reason, its purpose is to protect those who are most vulnerable. The status of being unemployed is defined as when an employed person is laid off, fired, or quits his work and is still looking for a job, this is what qualifies someone to receive a citizens allowance (Bürgergeld) in Germany. The payments are only made if you are unemployed and worked for the last 12 months. Otherwise, benefits are received in the form of Arbeitslosengeld II, also called Hartz IV, which distributes social payments to people without an income who cannot work to make a living. Since January 2023 though, Arbeitlosengeld has been replaced by Bürgergeld, since this is a new transition, it is still possible that people will still refer to the benefits as Arbeitlosengeld or Hartz IV.

This data is used for examination of inflation- unemployment relationship for 18 countries after 1991. Inflation data is obtained from World Bank database (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG) and unemployment data is obtained from International Labor Organization (http://www.ilo.org/wesodata/).

Analysis period is different for all countries because of structural breaks determined by single point change point detection algorithm included in changepoint package of Killick & Eckley (2014). Granger-causality is conducted with Toda&Yamamoto (1995) procedure. Integration levels are determined with 3 stationary tests. VAR models are run with vars package (Pfaff, Stigler & Pfaff; 2018) without trend and constant terms. Cointegration test is conducted with urca package (Pfaff, Zivot, Stigler & Pfaff; 2016).

All data files are .csv files. Analyst need to change country index (variable name: j) in order to see individual results. Findings can be seen in the article.

Killick, R., & Eckley, I. (2014). changepoint: An R package for changepoint analysis. Journal of statistical software, 58(3), 1-19.

Pfaff, B., Stigler, M., & Pfaff, M. B. (2018). Package ‘vars’. Online] https://cran. r-project. org/web/packages/vars/vars. pdf.

Pfaff, B., Zivot, E., Stigler, M., & Pfaff, M. B. (2016). Package ‘urca’. Unit root and cointegration tests for time series data. R package version, 1-2.

Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.

Unemployment Rate in France remained unchanged at 7.50 percent in the second quarter of 2025 from 7.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - France Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This statistic shows the unemployment rate of Iran from 1999 to 2024. In 2024, Iran's unemployment rate was estimated to amount to 9.19 percent of the total labor force. Employment and economy in Iran Iran’s unemployment rate has been above 10 percent for the last 10 years, and this rate is estimated to have peaked in 2014, when estimates reached 14 percent. Also, many of those who are considered employed in Iran are also considered underemployed. Unemployment in Iran is especially high among young people and women; over 70 percent of the population’s close to 80 million inhabitants are of working age, increasing the overall demand of these inhabitants for work. Iran’s economy has also been in a recession, which has exacerbated the difficulties to meet the employment demands of its inhabitants. Although the economy is expected to recover slightly in 2014, Iran's GDP is expected to decrease and the real GDP growth rate is either negative or quite low. In times of a struggling economy, it is typically more difficult to create jobs and introduce people to the labor force. Because Iran's economic activity still depends to a large extent on oil revenues, this also reduces the stability of the economy and employment. With a decreasing per capita GDP and a high inflation rate people are also more vulnerable to changes in income and employment, making the unemployment a pressing issue that the country will have to manage.

United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 10-Year data was reported at 14.261 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 12.872 % for 05 May 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 10-Year data is updated weekly, averaging 0.073 % from Jan 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 279 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.258 % in 13 Jan 2025 and a record low of 0.000 % in 24 Mar 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 10-Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Unemployment Rate.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

In 2025, the UK economy is expected to grow by just one percent, according to the economic and fiscal outlook from March 2025. GDP growth has been downgraded from two percent when compared with the previous forecast from October 2024. The inflation rate is expected to average out at 3.2 percent, and the unemployment rate at 4.5 percent. Inflation distress continues for UK consumers The expected increase in UK inflation for 2025 looks set to peak at 3.7 percent in the third quarter of the year, before falling to two percent by early 2026. Though this spike in prices will be far less serious than in 2022, when UK inflation reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, UK households are still suffering from the impact of the previous crisis. In March 2025, approximately 59 percent of UK households were dealing with rising living costs, relative to the previous month, mainly due to rising energy and food costs. Unemployment set to rise in 2025 Aside from rising prices and a slowing economy, the UK will also have to contend with rising unemployment in 2025. As with inflation, however, the rise in unemployment is expected to be relatively mild and short-lived, especially when compared with previous periods of high unemployment. Recently, the government has been more concerned about high levels of economic inactivity, especially among young people, with the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in employment, education, or training approaching one million towards the end of 2024.