In May 2022, 67 percent of people in the United Kingdom thought that Brexit had made their cost of living higher, compared with five percent who said it had made it lower. High inflation has caused an ecnomic crisis in the UK, with 87 percent of people reporting an increase in their cost of living as of March 2022.

In the first quarter of 2025, the business investment index in the United Kingdom was 113, compared with 108 in the previous quarter, indicating that business investment has increased. During this time period, there are two notable dips in business investment, the first occurring during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, and the second in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the UK. This itself was preceded by a long period of virtually no business investment growth between 2016 and 2020, possibly due to the chaotic nature of the UK's withdrawal from the EU. Tax a key issue for businesses in 2025 According to a survey conducted in the second quarter of 2025, approximately 56 percent of UK firms saw taxation as the main external threat facing their business. A rise in the amount of National Insurance Tax that employers pay came into force in April 2025, by far the most significant tax rise in the government's Autumn Budget from the previous year. Possibly due to this, UK businesses have started to scale back their workforce, with payrolled employment falling by over 230,000 since the start of the year. Inflation concerns return in 2025 Just behind taxation, the second-most pressing external issue for the surveyed businesses was that of inflation. As of April 2025, the CPI inflation rate for the UK stood at 3.5 percent, up from 1.7 percent in September 2024. For 2025 as a whole, the annual inflation rate was initially expected to reach 2.6 percent, with this revised upwards to 3.2 percent during the Spring Statement of 2025. According to the same forecasts, the peak of inflation is anticipated for the third quarter of the year, at 3.7 percent, before falling to more usual levels by 2026.

A list of fast facts on the performance of each sector of the UK economy.

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

As with the majority of consumer goods in 2022, the cost of a traditional Christmas dinner was also impacted by the high levels of inflation seen around the world.

Inflation in the UK The global inflation crisis had a particularly strong impact on the United Kingdom in 2022. A cost-of-living crisis fueled in part by inflation began in 2021 and was only exasperated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and post Brexit trade. The CPI inflation rate of the UK reached a decades-long high in October 2022, with UK households seeing a dramatic decline in their purchasing power.

Christmas shopping behavior UK consumers expected inflation to have a significant impact on their holiday shopping in 2022. One poll found that just over 40 percent of UK consumers intended to cut all expenses related to Black Friday and Christmas spending. With shoppers scaling back their purchases, it's good to know that the majority of gift-getters are happy to receive socks as a Christmas present.

Bearing and gear manufacturing companies produce numerous types of bearings, gearboxes, clutches and transmission shafts. Despite being artificially inflated by re-exports and intermediate imported goods, international trade is crucial to the industry. The UK bearing and manufacturing industry is small compared to the global industrial gears and bearing systems market. High import penetration has resulted in pricing pressure, and foreign producers' quality and cost advantages have siphoned market share away from UK-bearing and gear manufacturers operating in the global market, like NSK Europe Ltd. Over the five years through 2023-24, industry revenue is forecast to contract at a compound annual rate of 2.2% to £1.3 billion, as a challenging operating environment has negatively affected performance. High demand from downstream transport equipment manufacturers led to substantial industry revenue growth before the pandemic. Yet, slashed manufacturing output caused revenue to plummet in 2020-21. Since the pandemic, the industry has contended with soaring input inflation, Brexit administrative burdens and low business confidence, weighing on sales and keeping revenue below pre-pandemic levels. Over 2023-24, revenue is expected to climb by 1.6% as inflation cools and downstream order volumes pick up. Over the five years through 2028-29, industry revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.5% to over £1.4 billion. Foreign bearing and gear producers will continue to improve quality standards, keeping import penetration high. UK manufacturers will continue investing in cutting-edge manufacturing equipment in line with Industry 4.0 technology, supporting future revenue prospects and efficiency gains. Rebounding European car production should create opportunities in the transport equipment market. Other growing UK downstream markets, like engine and turbine manufacturing, will support bearing and gear sales over the coming years. Innovation-led manufacturers investing in research and development will remain competitive in global markets, churning out new products like triple-row wheel bearings and boosting market share.

Brokers benefit in these times as the higher the business's net profit, the higher the valuation, meaning the higher commission earned. However, uncertainty-inducing events like Brexit, COVID-19 and high inflation have severely dented business confidence leading to a dip in business transactions. As a result, industry revenue is estimated to fall at a compound annual rate of 5% to £268.1 million over the five years through 2024-25. The COVID-19 pandemic forced businesses to shift away from expansion and towards cost-cutting and restructuring, limiting the need for brokers. The high-inflation landscape in 2022 and 2023 led to the Bank of England raising the base rate to its highest since the global financial crisis. High-interest rates weigh on buyers' purchasing power, constraining brokers' commissions. Although larger brokers like Christie Group were able to maintain revenue growth by raising fees in 2022-23, having less exposure to price competition thanks to their established brand image, smaller players saw their revenue drop in line with M&A activity. With a renewed decline in M&A activity during 2023-24 amid rising interest rates and inflation, even Christie Group cited a decrease in its transactional brokerage incomes. 2024-25 is set to mark a turnaround for the industry as business confidence recovers in anticipation of interest rate cuts and subsiding economic uncertainty, driving revenue growth of 3.1%. Over the five years through 2029-30, business brokers' revenue is estimated to grow at a compound annual rate of 5% to £342.3 million. SMEs are positioned for solid growth in the coming years as interest rates come down, alleviating cost of debt pressures, and economic growth picks up. This will lift revenue growth through greater M&A activity as they seek to expand. The critical change for business brokers will be the ability to leverage artificial intelligence (AI) powered tools and data analytics to raise productivity. AI and data analytics will boost the efficiency of the day-to-day tasks of brokers, like market research, valuations, matching buyers and sellers and due diligence. Brokers can become more client-focused and focus their time on strategic activities like deal negotiation, client engagement and relationship building.

The market share of the leading supermarkets in Great Britain (GB) from January 2017 to March 2025 has remained fairly stable. Tesco and Sainsbury's had the largest share over the period under consideration, holding **** percent of the market together as of March 2025. Prior to the popularity of the discounters, the grocery retail market was dominated by the 'big four' supermarkets: Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, and Morrisons. On the back of the post-Brexit uncertainty and growing inflation, consumer behavior has shifted in favor of cheaper alternatives such as Aldi and Lidl. In September 2022, Aldi took over fourth place in the grocery store ranking from Morrisons for the first time. In April 2023, Aldi's market share reached double digits for the first time. In March 2025, this figure stood at ** percent.

The United Kingdom Full Service Restaurant (FSR) market, spanning 2019-2033, presents a dynamic landscape shaped by evolving consumer preferences and economic factors. While precise market size figures for the base year (2025) are unavailable, a reasonable estimation can be made based on reported CAGRs and general market trends. Assuming a moderate CAGR (let's assume 3% for illustrative purposes, adjust as needed with further information), and considering the significant presence of established chains and independent operators, the UK FSR market likely exceeded £15 billion in 2025. Key drivers include rising disposable incomes, increasing urbanization, and the growing popularity of diverse cuisines beyond traditional British fare. Trends like experiential dining, personalized service, and sustainable practices are gaining traction, influencing restaurant strategies. Restraints include rising operating costs (inflation impacting food and labor), supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating consumer confidence. The market segmentation reveals significant opportunities. The Asian, European, and North American cuisine segments likely dominate, with chained outlets holding a larger market share than independent ones. Location-wise, leisure and retail locations probably represent the most significant shares, reflecting consumer behavior. Companies such as Mitchells & Butlers, Nando's, and Pizza Hut are major players, showcasing both the established presence of international chains and the ongoing relevance of regional independent businesses. The forecast period (2025-2033) suggests continued growth driven by innovation, adaptation to changing consumer needs, and expansion into new areas of service and delivery. The UK FSR market is segmented across various factors, offering avenues for targeted market analysis. The cuisine segment showcases the diversity of offerings, while the outlet type (chained vs. independent) highlights the competitive dynamics. Location-based segmentation provides insights into consumer behavior and the spatial distribution of restaurants. The study period’s historical data (2019-2024) is crucial for understanding past performance and informing future predictions. Analyzing this data with the projected CAGR will facilitate robust forecasting and strategic decision-making for both established players and new entrants seeking to capitalize on the opportunities within the UK FSR market. The impact of external factors like Brexit and economic fluctuations needs to be considered for refined forecasts. Future growth will likely depend on adapting to post-pandemic consumer preferences and successfully navigating the challenges posed by inflation and labor shortages. Recent developments include: February 2023: The Big Table Group announced that it would use PolyAI's customer-led conversational assistant to enhance customer service and foster its expansion. The Big Table Group added that it had accomplished its goal of answering 100% of customer calls at its Bella Italia and Café Rouge restaurants owing to PolyAI.November 2022: Just Eat and Uber Eats collaborated with PizzaExpress. To address the increased demand for delivery before the first-ever Winter World Cup, expected to be a popular time for American Hots and Peronis to be delivered straight to consumers' doors, PizzaExpress engaged in these new collaborations.October 2022: Pizza Hut introduced "Melts," a new product category with a wide range of offerings, including Pizza Hut MeltsTM. Pizza Hut MeltsTM are cheesy, crunchy, stuffed with toppings, and served with a perfectly matched dip.. Notable trends are: A significant rise in tourist arrivals is driving substantial growth in the market, and new trends in dining contributing the market growth.

Over the five years through 2024-25, revenue is set to climb at a compound annual rate of 2% to £6.4 billion. This growth stems from recovering business confidence, which was previously shaken by Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and soaring inflation, deterring investments. Mounting demand for online and digital research services and intense political activity has also fuelled expansion. Facing stiff competition, market research and public opinion polling companies have innovated to gain a competitive edge, embracing acquisitions in order to gain access to new technology and niche markets, as well as heavily investing in technology to improve data collection and analysis. The shift towards digital advertising has driven the adoption of advanced data gathering and research methods to better understand online consumer behaviour, though there’s been a growing trend towards in-house research as an alternative. Revenue saw a 16.3% downturn in 2020-21, a reflection of the financial strain created by COVID-19 curtailing spending on research activities. The severity of this decline, however, was cushioned by increased market research investment from the public sector and private companies looking to navigate the aftermath of the pandemic. Revenue is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2024-25, propelled by easing inflationary pressures and the collective effort of businesses to stabilise the economy and financial markets. Public-sector demand is also escalating, driven by the General Election and the continued political discourse necessitating insights into public opinion. Looking ahead, revenue is projected to rise at a compound annual rate of 3.1% over the five years through 2029-30, reaching £7.5 billion. Growth will be fuelled by a rebound in business confidence and an uptick in spending. Demand for companies specialising in web-based market research and social media marketing is expected to surge, supported by strong advertising activity and a mounting need for media research. As e-commerce continues on a steady growth path, there will likely be an increased emphasis on investing in novel research technologies and specialised data analytics capabilities.

The UK is the largest European centre for the management of private equity (PE) investments and funds, second only to the US in terms of global importance. PE firms pool investment funds or use leverage to purchase other companies. Their goal is to improve a company's performance by introducing managerial and operational changes, before selling the company for a profit. More CEOs are wanting to retain control of their companies, increasing the number of minority stake buyouts. PE firms profit from management fees, calculated as a percentage of AUM, and performance fees on the total return from the invested company's IPO or sale to another company. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 6.6% to £4.6 billion over the five years through 2024-25, including growth of 4.9% in 2024-25. Following a short-lived halt in PE dealmaking at the start of 2020 following the COVID-19 outbreak, PE buyouts skyrocketed in 2021-22 due to higher levels of dry powder and low interest rates. Despite strong fundraising in 2022-23 as investors sought higher yields, PE activity slowed amid rising interest rates and a gloomy economic outlook, hitting deal volumes. Conditions only worsened in 2023-24 as the higher base rate environment, spiralling inflation and geopolitical tensions incited significant fundraising challenges and clobbered investment activity, hurting revenue. The macroeconomic environment is set to improve in 2024-25, driven by the prospect of further rate cuts and investors upgrading growth prospects, lifting deal activity. Revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 7.2% to £6.5 billion over the five years through 2029-30. In the coming years, private equity firms will focus more on optimising operational performance and driving inorganic growth amid the high base rate environment and inflation, a sharp contrast to the expansion-driven growth experienced over the past decade. ESG will also be on their agenda, realising that significant value can be achieved from the investment strategy. Brexit has proven detrimental to domestic PE firms, but this could change depending on how effective the government's regulatory divergence is. Growing competition from alternative investment vehicles will also hurt revenue growth.

The UK retail banking market, valued at approximately £68.77 billion in 2025, is projected to experience steady growth, driven by several key factors. The increasing adoption of digital banking solutions, including online platforms and mobile apps, is significantly impacting market dynamics. Consumers are increasingly demanding convenient and personalized financial services, prompting banks to invest heavily in technological upgrades and user-friendly interfaces. Furthermore, the rise of fintech companies is fostering competition and innovation, leading to the introduction of new products and services, such as mobile payment systems and personalized financial management tools. While Brexit initially presented challenges, the market has shown resilience, with banks adapting to new regulatory environments and focusing on strengthening customer relationships. The segment showing the strongest growth is likely online banking, driven by younger demographics' preference for digital interactions and increased smartphone penetration. However, the market also faces constraints such as increasing regulatory scrutiny, cybersecurity threats, and the need for continuous investment in technology to maintain a competitive edge. Growth in the wealth management segment will also contribute to the overall market expansion, fueled by a rising affluent population and increasing demand for sophisticated investment services. The continued expansion of the market is expected to be spread across multiple channels, reflecting the diverse preferences of UK consumers. The projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.45% suggests a consistent, albeit moderate, expansion of the UK retail banking market over the forecast period (2025-2033). This growth is likely to be influenced by macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. The market's segmentation highlights the diverse nature of customer needs, with significant opportunities for banks to cater to specific demographics, such as high-net-worth individuals and small businesses. Strategic partnerships with fintech companies and the development of innovative financial products tailored to specific segments will play a crucial role in determining future market leaders. The continued dominance of established players such as HSBC, Barclays, and Lloyds Banking Group is anticipated, but they will likely face increased competition from challenger banks and international players. The overall market outlook remains positive, contingent upon maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustained consumer confidence. This in-depth report provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK retail banking market, covering the period from 2019 to 2033. It delves into market dynamics, competitive landscapes, and future growth projections, providing invaluable insights for businesses and investors operating within or considering entry into this dynamic sector. The report utilizes data from the historical period (2019-2024), with a base year of 2025 and a forecast period spanning 2025-2033. The study highlights key trends, challenges, and opportunities within the £XXX million market. Recent developments include: August 2024: Lloyds Bank launched a USD 137 cash offer for students opening current accounts. To qualify, students must deposit at least USD 622 between August 1 and October 31, 2024. Student account holders will also receive a 20% discount on selected Student Union events and can earn 2% interest on balances up to USD 6,219.September 2023: HSBC pioneered a partnership with Nova Credit, making it the first UK bank to allow newcomers to access their credit history from abroad. This initiative aims to facilitate smoother financial integration for individuals relocating to the United Kingdom.. Key drivers for this market are: The Shift Toward Digital Banking, with Customers Increasingly Using Online and Mobile Banking Services. Potential restraints include: The Shift Toward Digital Banking, with Customers Increasingly Using Online and Mobile Banking Services. Notable trends are: Deposit Trends and Digital Transformation Driving Traditional Banking.

The performance of leather, hide and skin wholesalers is driven by trends in leather product manufacturing industries, including footwear, furniture, leather goods and the automotive industry, as leather is a common vehicle interior. Following Brexit, the UK lost access to CAP funding and implemented a new subsidy system prioritising sustainable agricultural land management over production. A 2024 survey by Riverford reported that half of farmers risk going out of business due to post-Brexit trade deals, the new focus of subsidies and heightened costs. The supply of leather, hide and skin from domestic sources will drop off subsequently, leaving wholesalers vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and global supply disruptions as exports become more important. British wholesalers face intensifying competition from cheaper, high-quality imported leather and growing consumer preferences for substitutes like vinyl. Over the five years through 2024-25, wholesalers’ revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.6% to reach £374.3 million. After a steep contraction in 2023-24, revenue is anticipated to grow by 3.5% in 2024-25 as manufacturing output rises and disposable income growth encourages shoppers to spend more on leather goods. Vehicle manufacturers have reduced their output since Brexit and are cutting production further in 2024 as they repurpose factories for the electric vehicle transition, constraining demand for leather interiors. Over the five years through 2029-30, wholesalers’ revenue is anticipated to rise at a compound annual rate of 2.5% to £423.1 million. As the UK exits a period of high inflation and sky-high borrowing costs, optimism among manufacturers and consumers will swell, supporting demand for full-grain and high-end leather goods. The growing impetus placed on sustainability and the environment will prop up demand for substitutes like faux leather, posing a threat to revenue. The loss of production-centred farmer subsidies may lead to a sharp decline in livestock numbers, potentially pushing up purchase costs for leather, hide and skin, weighing on profit.

Fasteners are essential components in many products and structures, and UK manufacturers typically target niche high-value segments, like the aerospace and automotive sectors. The domestic industry is small compared with the global market, and most UK companies are subsidiaries of foreign-owned global companies. A booming UK construction activity and resilient industrial production sector supported revenue growth and fastener sales. However, motor vehicle manufacturing contracted amid high uncertainty following the EU referendum. The weak pound has aided export growth, but intense import penetration from overseas manufacturers has intensified competition. Over the five years through 2023-24, industry revenue is expected to drop at a compound annual rate of 0.7% to £752.6 million. The economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 outbreak significantly reduced manufacturing revenue over 2020-21, exacerbated by disrupted supply chains, trade flow and weak investment. 2021-22 and 2022-23 saw a recovery in the UK construction and manufacturing sector, contributing to a 12.5% rebound in revenue. Over 2023-24, revenue is forecast to edge downwards by 0.3% as downstream markets face sky-high inflation and high-interest rates. Fierce import competition and supply chain bottlenecks have constrained profitability since the COVID-19 outbreak, preventing manufacturers from expanding output capacity. At 5.7%, the average industry operating margin remains below pre-pandemic levels over 2023-24. Over the five years through 2028-29, industry revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 2.4% to reach £846.9 million. Domestic and foreign downstream market activity will drive revenue opportunities, particularly within the automotive and aerospace sectors. UK industrial production activity will improve as the UK slowly overcomes the slow puncture of Brexit on the economy and raises its productivity to the levels seen across the G7. A free trade deal between the UK and the EU will minimise the export disruption associated with Brexit. Assisted by government schemes, residential construction activity will continue expanding. However, the rising value of the pound could weigh on export prospects.

The Open-Ended Investment Company Activities industry's revenue is set to contract at a compound annual rate of 5.9% over the five years through 2024-25 to £3.2 billion. The total assets under management in the industry have increased over the past decade, thanks in part to the rollout of automatic enrolment into pensions and the launch of pension funds' capital invested into OEICs. High interest rates caused by soaring inflation damaged the short-term value of fixed assets in portfolios and limited interest in equities. This hampered various markets, including Real Estate, growth industries like FinTech and capital-intensive companies. The cost-of-living crisis prompted retail investors to pull funds from OEICs. UK equity funds felt it most, witnessing a record £1.8 billion outflow in May 2024, according to the Investment Association. This spike extended an existing outflow trend, with 2023 and 2022 seeing £13.6 billion and £12 billion pulled, respectively, as indicated by the Investment Association. However, as prices stabilise and consumer confidence slowly recovers, retail investors have returned to net inflows into funds. Revenue is still rebounding from the drastic hits by inflation and COVID-19, booming at 9.7% in 2024-25, supported by the anticipated sink of interest rates that will pick up investment. Revenue is expected to rise at a compound annual rate of 5.1% to £4.1 billion over the five years through 2029-30. Brexit is likely to continue to impact the industry as UK and EU regulations drift apart, increasing legal costs for OEICs serving clients in the EU. Reforms to insurance margin requirements and the pension age are likely to free up capital used for investments into OEICs. Higher clarity and digital transformation will force a change in the industry with higher domestic investment and digital capabilities being introduced. However, global equity funds are likely to continue to outpace domestic equity thanks to higher returns and liquidity.

The Fruit and Vegetable Wholesaling industry has faced numerous shocks over the last five years. The industry's price sensitivity to external shocks, like weather and exchange rates, makes industry growth and revenue highly vulnerable. The cost-of-living crisis heavily weighed on revenue in 2023-24, as staggering inflation rates forced downstream consumers to switch from fresh produce to cheaper processed alternatives. The industry rebounded in 2024-25, benefitting from inflation rates falling. A compounding set of challenges is putting the industry in a tight spot for 2025-26. Regulation changes, creeping inflation, poor weather conditions and global trade uncertainty are spiralling together to weigh on industry revenue for 2025-26. Post-Brexit border checks are set to come into play in July, slamming down large additional costs on wholesalers. The highly competitive environment makes it extremely hard to pass this increase in costs onto retailers, worsened by the fact that prices are already rising as inflation comes back into play. This will squeeze already tight profit margins as wholesalers face rising costs coupled with a drop-off in demand. Additionally, the UK’s climate means large quantities of supply are imported by wholesalers, particularly fruit. With climate change increasing the likelihood of poor weather conditions, constricting supply, and global trade uncertainties weighing on exchange rates, prices are going to take a further hit, pulling down revenue further. Overall, industry revenue is expected to fall at a compound annual rate of 0.8% over the five years through 2025-26, to £11.9 million. This includes a projected fall of 4% in 2025-26 as the challenges take hold, restricting profit growth. The industry is expected to bounce back at a compound annual rate of 1.4% over the five years through 2030-31 to reach £12.8 million. As the industry becomes more accustomed to the increasing border check costs, automation improves operational efficiency and individuals' disposable income is less stretched, prices will settle. This will help restore revenue as downstream consumers can buy more fruit and vegetables, fuelling demand for wholesalers from retailers and food-service establishments. This trend will be particularly strong for organic and sustainable products, as health consciousness continues to rise and affluent individuals seek healthy and exotic items. However, the threat of climate change and the end of seasonal worker visa allocations hang in the air, causing a large amount of uncertainty surrounding long-term industry revenue.

The COVID-19 pandemic restrictions decimated industry demand as tourism plummeted in 2020-21, bringing an end to the robust revenue growth in revenue achieved in the years after the Brexit vote, which was down to a strong staycation trend and a weak pound making the UK a more affordable holiday destination for tourists. A rebound in holiday trips, including a strong staycation trend, drove revenue recovery in the years since. Revenue is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2024-25 to £3.6 billion, including a forecast hike of 1.4% in 2024-25. Revenue bounced back once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted, with pent-up demand for holidaying driving spending on holiday accommodation in 2021-22. Tourism continued to recover in 2022-23 and 2023-24 to the benefit of holiday accommodation providers. However, revenue growth had been held back since late 2022-23 by the cost-of-living crisis tightening consumers' purse strings. Significant consumer demand for holidays and soaring inflation encouraged holiday accommodation providers to hike prices, boosting revenue from bookings but also putting some price-sensitive consumers off from staying at industry accommodation. A slowdown in staycations towards the end of 2023-24 and 2024-25 amid the lingering effects of the cost-of-living crisis and poor weather has hindered revenue growth. Subsiding inflation and strong international tourism have supported revenue in 2024-25. The emergence of online travel agents has made it easier for independent accommodation providers to compete with larger companies, enticing newcomers into the industry. However, the enduring popularity of online private short-term rentals like Airbnb and Vrbo threatens to steal away guests. Intensifying competition has placed pressure on prices, which, alongside severe inflationary pressures, has weighed on the average profit margin, which is estimated to be 15.5% in 2024-25. Revenue is forecast to mount at a compound annual rate of 3.5% over the five years through 2029-30 to £4.3 billion. Climbing domestic and international visitor numbers will support growth. Given the anticipated expansion in inbound visits to the UK, companies must find ways to attract foreign travellers, who typically stay at hotels or use home-sharing platforms. Growing disposable incomes will spur consumer spending on holiday trips, though this may also lead to some travelling abroad. That being said, home-sharing platforms like Airbnb and competitively-priced hotels investing in enhancing facilities and offerings will continue to lure consumers away from holiday accommodation providers. Intense price competition and elevated staff costs (resulting from staff shortages and climbing National Living Wage) will weigh on revenue and profit.

In 2024, gross domestic product per capita in the United Kingdom was 37,044 British pounds, compared with 37,033 pounds in the previous year. In general, while GDP per capita has grown quite consistently throughout this period, there are noticeable declines, especially between 2007 and 2009, and between 2019 and 2020, due to the Global Financial Crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. Why is GDP per capita stagnating when the economy is growing? During the last two years that GDP per capita fell and then stagnated in the UK, the overall economy grew by 0.4 percent in 2023 and 1.1 percent in 2024. While the overall UK economy is therefore larger than it was in 2022, the UK's population has grown at a faster rate, resulting in the lower GDP per capita figure. The long-term slump in the UK's productivity, as measured by output per hour worked, has meant that the gap between GDP growth and GDP per capita growth has been widening for some time. Economy remains the main concern of UK voters As of February 2025, the economy was seen as the main issue facing the UK, just ahead of immigration, health, and several other problems in the country. While Brexit was seen as the most important issue before COVID-19, and concerns about health were dominant throughout 2020 and 2021, the economy has generally been the primary facing voters issue since 2022. The surge in inflation throughout 2022 and 2023, and the impact this had on wages and living standards, resulted in a very tough period for UK households. As of January 2025, 57 percent of households were still noticing rising living costs, although this is down from a peak of 91 percent in August 2022.

The pound to euro history reveals that exchange rates in 2022 were not as low as they were during 2008 or since the Brexit referendum. Since the United Kingdom (UK) held a referendum on its European Union membership in June 2016, the British pound (GBP) weakened against the euro. From a high of 1.43 at the end of November 2015, the GBP to EUR exchange rate has remained below 1.2 since July 2016, sitting at 1.11 as of October 2020. By June 27, 2025, values had reached 1.17 euros per pound. The euro to pound exchange rate can be found on a different page. Hitting UK citizens' pockets It is not just European holidaymakers that are hit when the British pound to Euro exchange rate falls. The average UK consumer also feels the pinch as inflation rates often rise to cover the shortfall of the pound. When the inflation rate rises, the price of imported goods goes up and the consumer ends up paying more. GBP to U.S. dollar Since 2016’s referendum, the British pound (GBP) fell across the exchange. The GBP's fall against the Euro was also reflected against the U.S. dollar where the exchange rate in May 2016 (pre-referendum) of 1.46 dollars to the pound has fallen significantly.

Financial leasing revenue is expected to remain flat over the five years through 2024-25, sitting at £16.1 billion, including growth of 5.2% in 2024-25. Financial lessors have navigated a turbulent environment over recent years, responding to aggressive rate hikes from the Bank of England ratcheting up borrowing costs. The regulatory climate has also seen significant changes, with financial lessors seeing their accounting and reporting costs climb following changes to the International Accounting Standards. This involved putting leases of more than one year on the balance sheet of the lessee. A rising base rate environment through 2023-24 amid spiralling inflation has aided interest income despite demand being softened by subdued economic growth. Interest rates remained high in 2023-24 as inflation proved sticky, lifting interest income for each transaction, but softening demand as lessees faced greater interest payments, dampening revenue growth. Making things worse, lessors may choose to bear the brunt of interest rate hikes to sustain demand, threatening profitability. In 2024-25, with inflation contained, interest rates will continue coming down, supporting leasing activity through a reduction in interest payments for lessees. However, regulatory changes related to Basel III introductions and new International Accounting Standards will weigh on the average industry profit margin, though they have benefited the Financial Leasing industry's reputation. Lessors have also been proactive in limiting exposure to changes in the value of the pound, which has been particularly volatile in recent years. Lessors entering into forward contracts to lock in exchange rates for a future date have been better able to fend of fluctuations in the pound, supporting profitability. Financial leasing revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.3% to reach £19.9 billion. The higher base rate environment will become the norm for financial lessors, forcing them to adapt to higher borrowing costs to maintain healthy profit. Compliance with legislative changes related to Brexit will also place pressure on profitability. However, the delay of the Basel III reforms will provide banks with flexibility when lending, feeding into lower borrower costs for lessors and supporting profit. The rise of financial technology will also spur technological innovation related to big data analysis for data collected from asset monitoring systems.