BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Somewhat Greater Than Normal data was reported at 8.781 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 10.056 % for Mar 2025. BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Somewhat Greater Than Normal data is updated monthly, averaging 19.817 % from Oct 2011 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 163 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 36.698 % in Feb 2022 and a record low of 3.319 % in May 2020. BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Somewhat Greater Than Normal data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I121: Business Inflation Expectations Survey. Business Inflation Expectations Survey Questionnaire: How do your SALES LEVELS compare with “normal” times?

Roughly ************ of small businesses preparing holiday season inventory in the United States said in a 2022 survey that in that year, they had ordered business inventory stock earlier and in larger quantities than usual.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Data Processing and Related Services: Business Process Management Services (Partial) (WPU38110201) from Dec 2008 to Aug 2025 about information technology, management, processed, business, services, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Midsize Firms data was reported at -8.930 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of -6.646 % for Jan 2025. BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Midsize Firms data is updated quarterly, averaging -3.660 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 26 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.300 % in Jul 2019 and a record low of -22.300 % in Apr 2020. BIE: Sales Level vs Normal Times: Above/Below Normal: Midsize Firms data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I121: Business Inflation Expectations Survey. Business Inflation Expectations Survey Questionnaire: By roughly what percent are your firm's unit sales levels above/below “normal,” if at all?

Replication datasets and codes for "Inflation, Economic Growth and Interest Rates"

Almost ********** of small businesses preparing holiday season inventory in the United Kingdom said in a 2022 survey that in that year, they had ordered business inventory stock earlier and in larger quantities than usual.

Inflation Expectations in New Zealand decreased to 2.28 percent in the third quarter of 2025 from 2.29 percent in the second quarter of 2025. This dataset provides - New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

We study the impact of targeted price controls on supermarket products in Argentina between 2007 and 2015. Using web-scraping methods, we collected daily prices for controlled and non-controlled goods and examined the differential effects of the policy on inflation, product availability, entry and exit, and price dispersion. We first show that price controls have only a small and temporary effect on inflation that reverses itself as soon as the controls are lifted. Second, contrary to common beliefs, we find that controlled goods are consistently available for sale. Third, firms compensate for price controls by introducing new product varieties at higher prices, thereby increasing price dispersion within narrow categories. Overall, our results show that targeted price controls are just as ineffective as more traditional forms of price controls in reducing aggregate inflation.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and July 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

In 2023, a survey found that to mitigate the effects of inflation, a significant proportion of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) had to resort to different strategies. A share of ** percent of them utilized their personal savings to support the business, while ** percent reduced their business activities. In addition, nearly one-fourth (** percent) attempted to overcome the financial strain by implementing measures such as employee layoffs or salary cuts.

Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation: Construction data was reported at 3.778 % in Dec 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.680 % for Sep 2022. Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation: Construction data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.646 % from Jun 2013 (Median) to Dec 2022, with 39 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.298 % in Sep 2013 and a record low of 3.180 % in Jun 2021. Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation: Construction data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank Indonesia. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Business and Economic Survey – Table ID.SD008: Business Survey: Inflation Expectation. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Japanese consumers expected business operators to pass on declines in production costs to retail prices. According to a survey conducted in March 2023, over ** percent of respondents hoped that businesses would reduce their prices if utility and raw material costs declined. Regarding products and services, respondents were more likely to accept an increase in prices over a decline in product and service quality or content.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Offices of Lawyers: Bankruptcy and Other Business and Commercial Legal Services (PCU541110541110903) from Dec 2014 to Aug 2025 about legal, commercial, business, services, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation: Business Services data was reported at 3.294 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.893 % for Dec 2024. Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation: Business Services data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.384 % from Dec 2022 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 10 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.034 % in Mar 2023 and a record low of 2.893 % in Dec 2024. Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation: Business Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank Indonesia. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Business and Economic Survey – Table ID.SD008: Business Survey: Inflation Expectation.

The Inflation Management Services market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing global inflation and the need for businesses to mitigate its impact on profitability and long-term sustainability. The market, estimated at $15 billion in 2025, is projected to exhibit a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12% between 2025 and 2033, reaching approximately $45 billion by 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key factors, including rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and increased government intervention to control inflation. Businesses across various sectors, particularly those in manufacturing, retail, and finance, are actively seeking sophisticated strategies to forecast and manage inflation effectively. The increasing adoption of advanced analytics, predictive modeling, and AI-powered solutions further enhances the market's growth trajectory. Consulting firms like McKinsey & Company, Bain & Company, and Deloitte are playing a significant role in providing these services, leveraging their expertise in economic forecasting, financial modeling, and risk management. The market is segmented by service type (e.g., forecasting, hedging, pricing strategies), industry vertical, and geography. Regional growth is expected to be strongest in North America and Europe, driven by high inflation rates and a strong emphasis on corporate financial planning in these regions. While the market presents significant opportunities, challenges such as data scarcity and the complexity of accurately predicting inflation remain. The effectiveness of inflation management services is also contingent on external factors such as government policies and unexpected global events. Despite these constraints, the consistent need to protect profitability and shareholder value, along with the advancement of analytical tools, positions the inflation management services market for continued growth in the foreseeable future. The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of large consulting firms offering comprehensive solutions and specialized firms focusing on niche areas within inflation management. The market will likely see further consolidation as firms strive to offer end-to-end solutions and expand their geographical reach.

Extent the business or organization considers inflation when setting wages and salaries, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), business employment size, type of business, business activity and majority ownership, fourth quarter of 2022.

Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation data was reported at 2.963 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.975 % for Dec 2024. Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.342 % from Dec 2022 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 10 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.057 % in Mar 2023 and a record low of 2.963 % in Mar 2025. Indonesia Business Survey: Inflation Expectation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank Indonesia. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Business and Economic Survey – Table ID.SD008: Business Survey: Inflation Expectation.

Business or organization expectations of inflation to be a bigger issue when discussing wage increases with employees over the next 12 months, North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), business employment size, type of business, business activity and majority ownership, second quarter of 2022.