According to a poll conducted at the end of 2022, Americans were feeling quite pessimistic about the coming year. 90 percent of Americans felt negatively about the prospect of political conflict in 2023.

The Economy 2022 was a difficult year for many Americans, as it was for many around the world. After a year of high inflation, record fuel prices, and decreased financial security, the country greeted 2023 with high rates of skepticism and caution. Although the U.S. economy itself has experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic recession compared with other major economies, a sustained decline in consumer spending power thanks to wage growth not keeping pace with inflation has everyday Americans feeling the pinch.

U.S. political landscape The political scene in the U.S. also had a tumultuous few years in the lead up to 2023. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States in 2016 left many voters reeling and the country more divided than ever. The beginning of 2021 was market by the January 6th attack on the Capitol, as well as the inauguration of Joe Biden. Additionally, the country continued to grapple with a politicized response to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. 2022 began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ushering in the beginning of a global fuel and inflation crisis. In the midst of hardening economic conditions, the Supreme Court overturned its ruling on Roe v. Wade, returning the power to decide abortion restrictions to state legislatures.

The 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans win enough seats to take back control of the House of Representatives, but saw the GOP ultimately underperform compared to predictions at the time. The first day of the 2023 congressional term was marked by the inability of the Republican Party to unify itself behind one candidate for Speaker of the House, leading to a once in a century multi-round of Speaker elections. With new members of the House not able to be sworn in until a Speaker is elected, 2023 had a difficult start.

President Trump Job Approval - Inflation | RealClearPolling

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, 45 percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to 26 percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from 1.4 percent in January 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.75 percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Before handing over to President Trump, President Biden's administration in the United States obligated the spending of 84 percent of the clean energy funds allocated by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) awarded 38 billion U.S. dollars in binding contracts signed as of January 2025.

In August 2024, the presidential campaign of former U.S. President and Republican nominee Donald Trump devoted ** percent of its TV ad spend to ads that mentioned immigration and/or crime. By the following month, ads mentioning these themes accounted for less than *** percent of spending. Instead, inflation was the primary focus, receiving ** percent of ad spend.

Oil prices surged due to Trump's skepticism about Iran negotiations and optimism for a China trade deal, supported by lower US inflation and positive market sentiment.

Adding to national debt is an inevitable fact of being President of the United States. The extent to which debt rises under any sitting president depends not only on the policy and spending choices they have made, but also the choices made by presidents and congresses that have come before them. Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush President Ronald Reagan increased the U.S. debt by around **** trillion U.S. dollars, or ****** percent. This is often attributed to "Reaganomics," in which Reagan implemented significant supply-side economic policies in which he reduced government regulation, cut taxes, and tightened the money supply. Spending increased under President George W. Bush in light of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. To finance the wars, President Bush chose to borrow the money, rather than use war bonds or increase taxes, unlike previous war-time presidents. Additionally, Bush introduced a number of tax cuts, and oversaw the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis. Barack Obama President Obama inherited both wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the financial crisis. The Obama administration also did not increase taxes to pay for the wars, and additionally passed expensive legislation to kickstart the economy following the economic crash, as well as the Affordable Care Act in 2010. The ACA expanded healthcare coverage to cover more than ** million more Americans through programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Though controversial at the time, more than half of Americans have a favorable view of the ACA in 2023. Additionally, he signed legislation making the W. Bush-era tax cuts permanent.

Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) inclined by 3.33 percent in 2020 after adjusting for inflation. This figure fell from 13.4 percent growth four years ago, which had been a reaction to sanctions lifting after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program. United States president Donald Trump ended that country’s participation in the deal, imposing new sanctions.

Political influence on the economy

Political tensions have hampered the economy of Iran, keeping growth low in spite of the country’s considerable oil reserves. The effect of these sanctions becomes obvious when looking at Iran’s oil exports to Europe over the past decade. Some analysts have blamed the new sanctions for the increase in Iran’s inflation rate, as well as the currency depreciation that has accompanied it.

Iran’s options

Although Iran’s main export partners are largely in Asia, many of the transactions are carried out using U.S. dollars. Even though other means of payment are possible, some countries worry about political ramifications of continuing trade relations with Iran. Iran’s greatest strength at the moment may be its low national debt, meaning that it can borrow a substantial amount of money if it can find a willing lender. However, given the instability of the political situation worldwide and regionally, it is difficult to assume that such a borrower exists at the moment.

Money Supply M2 in the United States increased to 21942 USD Billion in May from 21862.40 USD Billion in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

As of the third quarter of 2024, the GDP of the U.S. grew by 2.8 percent from the second quarter of 2024. GDP, or gross domestic product, is effectively a count of the total goods and services produced in a country over a certain period of time. It is calculated by first adding together a country’s total consumer spending, government spending, investments and exports; and then deducting the country’s imports. The values in this statistic are the change in ‘constant price’ or ‘real’ GDP, which means this basic calculation is also adjusted to factor in the regular price changes measured by the U.S. inflation rate. Because of this adjustment, U.S. real annual GDP will differ from the U.S. 'nominal' annual GDP for all years except the baseline from which inflation is calculated. What is annualized GDP? The important thing to note about the growth rates in this statistic is that the values are annualized, meaning the U.S. economy has not actually contracted or grown by the percentage shown. For example, the fall of 29.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 did not mean GDP is suddenly one third less than a year before. In fact, it means that if the decline seen during that quarter continued at the same rate for a full year, then GDP would decline by this amount. Annualized values can therefore exaggerate the effect of short-term economic shocks, as they only look at economic output during a limited period. This effect can be seen by comparing annualized quarterly growth rates with the annual GDP growth rates for each calendar year.

A survey conducted in February 2025 found that the most important issue for ** percent of Americans was inflation and prices. A further ** percent of respondents were most concerned about jobs and the economy.

In the 2020 U.S. presidential race, Democratic candidates spent a total of roughly **** billion U.S. dollars, more than any other election. The total spending of presidential candidates is reflected in the number of major presidential candidates running. See here for more information on how many candidates have run in past U.S. elections.

In 2023 the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States increased by 2.5 percent compared to 2022. This rate of annual growth indicates a return to economy normalcy after 2020 saw a dramatic decline in the GDP growth rate due to the the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and high growth in 2021.

What does GDP growth mean?

Essentially, the annual GDP of the U.S. is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country over a given year. On the surface, an increase in GDP therefore means that more goods and services have been produced between one period than another. In the case of annualized GDP, it is compared to the previous year. In 2023, for example, the U.S. GDP grew 2.5 percent compared to 2022.

Countries with highest GDP growth rate

Although the United States has by far the largest GDP of any country, it does not have the highest GDP growth, nor the highest GDP at purchasing power parity. In 2021, Libya had the highest growth in GDP, growing more than 177 percent compared to 2020. Furthermore, Luxembourg had the highest GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, a better measure of living standards than nominal or real GDP.

According to a survey from late December 2024, the two most important issues among Republican voters in the United States were inflation and immigration, with ** and ** percent ranking it their primary political concerns respectively. In contrast, only *** percent of Democrats considered immigration their most important issue. Inflation and healthcare were the leading issues among democrats in the U.S.

Im Juni 2025, dem fünften vollen Monat von Donald Trumps zweiter Amtszeit, ist der S&P 500 Index um rund **** Prozent gegenüber dem Zeitpunkt der Amtseinführung gestiegen. Der Monat Juni markiert somit den ersten Amtsmonat von Trump, indem der S&P-500 Index höher steht als zu Beginn seiner Amtszeit im Januar. Im November 2024 wurde ein neuer US-Präsident gewählt. Neben der politischen Bilanz des Amtsinhabers steht auch die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika im öffentlichen Fokus. Die ökonomischen Bilanzen der letzten US-Präsidenten fielen dabei sehr unterschiedlich aus. Um zu einer differenzierten Beurteilung der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung der USA unter den jeweiligen US-Präsidenten zu gelangen, müssen mehrere Indikatoren, wie z.B. die Inflation, die Arbeitslosenquote, das Bruttoinlandsprodukt, der Median des Haushaltseinkommens, die Handelsbilanz und viele weitere Kennzahlen Berücksichtigung finden. US-Aktienmarkt schrumpft unter Trump Die Entwicklung der Aktienindizes, wie etwa der Dow Jones oder der S&P 500, ist eine zusätzliche Dimension, welche Aufschluss über die wirtschaftliche Lage und ihre Rahmenbedingungen geben kann. Unter Joe Biden hatte sich die Bewertung des S&P 500, dem Aktienindex der 500 größten börsennotierten Unternehmen der USA, dennoch um gut 57,05 Prozent gegenüber dem Stand zum Anfang seiner Präsidentschaft gesteigert. In den ersten Monaten der Trump-Administration sank der S&P-500-Aktienindex um rund 7,9 Prozent gegenüber dem Beginn der Amtszeit. Während der Präsidentschaft von Bill Clinton boomte die US-Wirtschaft am stärksten Unter den beiden demokratischen US-Präsidenten Bill Clinton und Barack Obama entwickelte sich die Wall Street am erfolgreichsten, mit einer Steigerung des S&P 500-Index um über 200 bzw. 180 Prozent im Vergleich zum Beginn dieser beiden Präsidentschaften. Donald Trump sorgte ungeachtet seiner impulsiven und erratischen Regierungsführung auch für Zufriedenheit bei den Anlegern, indem am Ende seiner ersten Amtszeit im Januar 2021 ein Wachstum des S&P 500 Index von etwa 65 Prozent im Vergleich zum Beginn seiner Präsidentschaft verbucht werden konnte.

Revenue in the Travel Agencies industry is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 12.3% over the five years through 2025 to €121.5 billion. The focus of the travel industry in the last five years has been recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel demand plunged during 2020 and 2021, when COVID-19 outbreak grounded flights and confined people to their homes. While domestic travel could continue in some countries, most travel agencies had no trips to sell. Since restrictions were lifted across Europe and globally (which happened at each country’s own pace), the travel sector has seen a resurgence in demand by trends characterised as revenge travel and responsible travel. People made up for lost time by taking more trips after COVID-19 restrictions had been lifted. In 2024 and 2025, consumers are still keen for trips but want value-for-money adventures instead as they’re cautious of their spending amid disposable income squeezes. International travel to Europe has also resurged, especially from the US, thanks to the more favourable dollar-to-Europe rate – a welcome trend for agencies. There’s concerns that President Trump’s administration and US tariffs could see a drop in US visitors, but in early 2025 numbers have been strong. Pent-up demand combined with savings built up during COVID-19 has kept bookings high, defying high inflation across Europe that would usually signal lower trip spending. Travel remains a high priority for many households, driving up bookings. As a result, revenue is expected to mount by 4.4% in 2025. That being said, the Russia-Ukraine war has plagued tourism in Eastern Europe, with countries like Finland and the Baltic states continuing to record much lower tourist numbers than pre-pandemic because of fewer Russian tourists and lower travel confidence to the region. Revenue is anticipated to climb at a compound annual rate of 8.9% in the five years through 2030 to €186.3 billion. Online travel agencies will continue to cement their position in the industry, with most traditional agencies adapting by now or already closing. Climate change will disrupt travel agencies and the destination packages they offer. The last few years have already seen wildfires across Greece that spelt disaster for many trips and travel agencies will need to plan for the shift from southern European beaches to northern European destinations as temperatures rise. Travel agencies across Europe will also keep trying to carve out more of a niche by specialising in trips for certain age demographics.

Revenue in the Travel Agencies industry is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 12.3% over the five years through 2025 to €121.5 billion. The focus of the travel industry in the last five years has been recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel demand plunged during 2020 and 2021, when COVID-19 outbreak grounded flights and confined people to their homes. While domestic travel could continue in some countries, most travel agencies had no trips to sell. Since restrictions were lifted across Europe and globally (which happened at each country’s own pace), the travel sector has seen a resurgence in demand by trends characterised as revenge travel and responsible travel. People made up for lost time by taking more trips after COVID-19 restrictions had been lifted. In 2024 and 2025, consumers are still keen for trips but want value-for-money adventures instead as they’re cautious of their spending amid disposable income squeezes. International travel to Europe has also resurged, especially from the US, thanks to the more favourable dollar-to-Europe rate – a welcome trend for agencies. There’s concerns that President Trump’s administration and US tariffs could see a drop in US visitors, but in early 2025 numbers have been strong. Pent-up demand combined with savings built up during COVID-19 has kept bookings high, defying high inflation across Europe that would usually signal lower trip spending. Travel remains a high priority for many households, driving up bookings. As a result, revenue is expected to mount by 4.4% in 2025. That being said, the Russia-Ukraine war has plagued tourism in Eastern Europe, with countries like Finland and the Baltic states continuing to record much lower tourist numbers than pre-pandemic because of fewer Russian tourists and lower travel confidence to the region. Revenue is anticipated to climb at a compound annual rate of 8.9% in the five years through 2030 to €186.3 billion. Online travel agencies will continue to cement their position in the industry, with most traditional agencies adapting by now or already closing. Climate change will disrupt travel agencies and the destination packages they offer. The last few years have already seen wildfires across Greece that spelt disaster for many trips and travel agencies will need to plan for the shift from southern European beaches to northern European destinations as temperatures rise. Travel agencies across Europe will also keep trying to carve out more of a niche by specialising in trips for certain age demographics.