During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.40 percent in May from 2.30 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In 2020, the GDP shrunk by 2.4 percent in Australia, and inflation was at an all-time low at 0.9 percent over the last 20 years. In 2021, the GDP is predicted to grow by 4.5 percent, and inflation to grow by 1.7 percent. According to the forecast, the Gross Domestic Product and inflation will grow weakly over the next five years in Australia.

Abstract (en): This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected. (1) The file submitted is the data file 9811WD.DAT. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

In 2025, the UK economy is expected to grow by just one percent, according to the economic and fiscal outlook from March 2025. GDP growth has been downgraded from two percent when compared with the previous forecast from October 2024. The inflation rate is expected to average out at 3.2 percent, and the unemployment rate at 4.5 percent. Inflation distress continues for UK consumers The expected increase in UK inflation for 2025 looks set to peak at 3.7 percent in the third quarter of the year, before falling to two percent by early 2026. Though this spike in prices will be far less serious than in 2022, when UK inflation reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, UK households are still suffering from the impact of the previous crisis. In March 2025, approximately 59 percent of UK households were dealing with rising living costs, relative to the previous month, mainly due to rising energy and food costs. Unemployment set to rise in 2025 Aside from rising prices and a slowing economy, the UK will also have to contend with rising unemployment in 2025. As with inflation, however, the rise in unemployment is expected to be relatively mild and short-lived, especially when compared with previous periods of high unemployment. Recently, the government has been more concerned about high levels of economic inactivity, especially among young people, with the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in employment, education, or training approaching one million towards the end of 2024.

Replication datasets and codes for "Inflation, Economic Growth and Interest Rates"

This data is used for article of macroeconomic of some Asian countries in long period which explained about four Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea. This data has taken from World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) database and is formed by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model, then empirical result is executed by Granger causality model on E-views 11 program to gauge the relationship between gross domestic product, exchange rate, inflation rate, foreign direct investment, net export, government expenditures, unemployment rate, and savings. The results showed that most of gross domestic product of sample and other macro-economy variables have not causality relationship.

Inflation in the table below is defined as the percent change in the CPI from the same month last year. The first column of numbers shows the latest value available from the national authorities and the next two columns show the levels of annual inflation three months and one year prior to the latest release. The data are updated daily. Over long stretches of time - typically years - inflation is a byproduct of the expansion of money supply. In the short run the inflation rate fluctuates with economic growth as recessions slow down the increase in prices and rapid output growth accelerates it. Shits in exchange rates, commodity prices, and natural phenomena like droughts also have an impact. Over time, however, these factors have only a transitory effect and the only variable that matters is money supply growth. The control of inflation is delegated to central banks that typically try to balance between relatively low inflation and low unemployment. For more, you can read our articles about optimal inflation and the causes of inflation in the short run and the long run.

Egypt EG: Inflation:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductDeflator: Linked Series data was reported at 22.933 % in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 6.246 % for 2016. Egypt EG: Inflation:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductDeflator: Linked Series data is updated yearly, averaging 9.904 % from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2017, with 28 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 22.933 % in 2017 and a record low of 0.870 % in 1999. Egypt EG: Inflation:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductDeflator: Linked Series data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Egypt – Table EG.World Bank.WDI: Inflation. Inflation as measured by the annual growth rate of the GDP implicit deflator shows the rate of price change in the economy as a whole. This series has been linked to produce a consistent time series to counteract breaks in series over time due to changes in base years, source data and methodologies. Thus, it may not be comparable with other national accounts series in the database for historical years.; ; World Bank staff estimates based on World Bank national accounts data archives, OECD National Accounts, and the IMF WEO database.; ;

These codes help to replicate all the empirical analysis in the article: “What explains monetary policy rate uncertainty? Evidence from the Americas”, Applied Economics Letters (revise and resubmit), authored by Ana Aguilar, Carlos Madeira, Alejandro Parada, Christian Upper (Bank for International Settlements).

The Stata codes use Consensus Economics monthly survey reports with forecasts for countries in the Americas. These forecasts were collected as a Stata dataset, but the files cannot be shared due to copyright concerns. Future users must collect their own Consensus Forecasts data and then use these codes to replicate the empirical analysis of the article.

The data also includes an online appendix with robustness exercises to the main article. These robustness exercises estimate the same uncertainty models, but without the past quarter's inflation rate and GDP growth as additional controls. The results are qualitatively similar to the main article.

The statistic shows the growth rate of the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is an important indicator of the economic strength of a country. Real GDP is adjusted for price changes and is therefore regarded as a key indicator for economic growth. In 2024, the growth of the real gross domestic product in the United States was around 2.8 percent compared to the previous year. See U.S. GDP per capita and the US GDP for more information. Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States The gross domestic product (GDP) of a country is a crucial economic indicator, representing the market value of the total goods and services produced and offered by a country within a year, thus serving as one of the indicators of a country’s economic state. The real GDP of a country is defined as its gross domestic product adjusted for inflation. An international comparison of economic growth rates has ranked the United States alongside other major global economic players such as China and Russia in terms of real GDP growth. With further growth expected during the course of the coming years, as consumer confidence continues to improve, experts predict that the worst is over for the United States economy. A glance at US real GDP figures reveals an overall increase in growth, with sporadic slips into decline; the last recorded decline took place in Q1 2011. All in all, the economy of the United States can be considered ‘well set’, with exports and imports showing positive results. Apart from this fact, the United States remains one of the world’s leading exporting countries, having been surpassed only by China and tailed by Germany. It is also ranked first among the top global importers. Despite this, recent surveys revealing Americans’ assessments of the U.S. economy have yielded less optimistic results. Interestingly enough, this consensus has been mutual across the social and environmental spectrum. On the other hand, GDP is often used as an indicator for the standard of living in a country – and most Americans seem quite happy with theirs.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term.

Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States contracted 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Laos LA: Inflation:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductDeflator: Linked Series data was reported at 1.852 % in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.023 % for 2016. Laos LA: Inflation:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductDeflator: Linked Series data is updated yearly, averaging 9.032 % from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2017, with 28 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 127.974 % in 1999 and a record low of -2.932 % in 2009. Laos LA: Inflation:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductDeflator: Linked Series data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Laos – Table LA.World Bank.WDI: Inflation. Inflation as measured by the annual growth rate of the GDP implicit deflator shows the rate of price change in the economy as a whole. This series has been linked to produce a consistent time series to counteract breaks in series over time due to changes in base years, source data and methodologies. Thus, it may not be comparable with other national accounts series in the database for historical years.; ; World Bank staff estimates based on World Bank national accounts data archives, OECD National Accounts, and the IMF WEO database.; ;

Supplementary material (Figures and Tables) of the paper published in Acta Oeconomica ABSTRACT Measurement of the performances of inflation targeting (IT) frameworks has been of interest to researchers ever since IT began to be implemented as a monetary policy strategy. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of domestic and international determinants on success in achieving inflation targets of the selected European economies. Our methodological framework is based on the application of a non-stationary discrete choice model. For this research, four European economies are considered: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Serbia. Their results regarding IT policy can provide a useful benchmark for similar economies that are either planning to adopt the same monetary policy framework or have begun to apply it recently. Our findings indicate that IT success is primarily under the control of monetary policymakers by key policy rate mechanism, but that the impact of additional domestic and international factors that are not easily managed by the central bank like budget balance, exchange rate, growth rate, current account balance, labor cost growth, loans, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, inflation, and GDP gap of the Eurozone, can be also significant. Consequently, monetary policymakers need to take into account a wide range of inflation factors, including foreign spillover effects, so that tools for their neutralization can be helpful in achieving the targeted goals.

Abstract of associated article: Increasing the independence of a central bank from political influence, although ex-ante socially beneficial and initially successful in reducing inflation, would ultimately fail to lower inflation permanently. The smaller anticipated policy distortions implemented by a more independent central bank would induce the fiscal authority to decrease current distortions by increasing the deficit. Over time, inflation would increase to accommodate a higher public debt. By contrast, imposing a strict inflation target would lower inflation permanently and insulate the primary deficit from political distortions.

Using a panel of 17 Latin American countries for the period 2002–18, we study the impact of economic variables on government approval. Our empirical analysis shows that the one economic variable that appears consistently in all estimates is economic growth. More specifically, we show that for each point of additional growth, the approval rating increases between 1.1 and 1.9 percentage points. Other variables, such as inflation, government spending, and the composition of spending, are significant in only some of the specifications used, while growth is remarkably robust in all of them. Among non-economic variables, the lack of solid institutions also appears consistently as significant as well as the lagged value of government approval ratings. These results suggest that a program focused on growth has a positive influence on the popularity of the government. This conclusion is particularly relevant in a region where populism has been remarkably persistent over time and where the norm has been to run large budget deficits to gain popular support, with consequences on inflation and the external accounts.

View economic output, reported as the nominal value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

This statistic shows the average inflation rate in Chile from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the average inflation rate in Chile had amounted to about 3.93 percent compared to the previous year. Chile's slowing economy The inflation rate in Chile has fluctuated from a low of 1.41 percent in 2010 to a high of 4.39 percent as of 2014. Despite the central bank having issued a target inflation rate of 3 percent, it was not reached in 2014, 2015 or 2016, defying expectations. Rising inflation is said to be affected by a weakening peso, combined with a relatively weak economy. While these inflation rates are not nearly comparable to some of the highest inflation rates around the world, slow growth and a lack of consumer and business confidence remain an underlying concern in Chile. Annual economic growth remains low at around two percent per year, fueling this concern. Further, export values are also in a slump as are those for imports, and this slow growth has had a significant effect on GDP growth per capita: In 2013, GDP per capita was around 15,713 U.S. dollars per capita, and in 2016 it is expected to drop by almost a fifth. In response, this year Chile has introduced a number of measures to help boost the economy, and 2016 is supposed to be the “Year of Productivity” with hopes of increasing trade and investment to raise growth and wages.

Inflation as measured by the annual growth rate of the GDP implicit deflator shows the rate of price change in the economy as a whole. The GDP implicit deflator is the ratio of GDP in current local currency to GDP in constant local currency. This series has been linked to produce a consistent time series to counteract breaks in series over time due to changes in base years, source data and methodologies. Thus, it may not be comparable with other national accounts series in the database for historical years. This indicator denotes the percentage change over each previous year of the constant price (base year 2015) series in United States dollars.