We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Expected Inflation Term Structure is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-30 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF1YR) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 1-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF10YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about projection, 10-year, inflation, and USA.

Inflation Nowcasting Monthly Month-Over-Month is a part of the Inflation Nowcasting indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

SCE: Distribution of 5 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: 2% to 3% data was reported at 10.166 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 11.163 % for Mar 2025. SCE: Distribution of 5 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: 2% to 3% data is updated monthly, averaging 11.317 % from Jan 2022 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 40 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.460 % in Jun 2023 and a record low of 7.899 % in May 2022. SCE: Distribution of 5 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: 2% to 3% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H078: Survey of Consumer Expectations: Inflation.

United States - University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation was 6.60% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation reached a record high of 10.40 in January of 1980 and a record low of 0.40 in November of 2001. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation (MICH) from Jan 1978 to May 2025 about consumer sentiment, projection, MI, consumer, inflation, and USA.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.

Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.

For more information, please visit the "https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

This code replications the work in Bundick and Smith (2023), "Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations."

SCE: Distribution of 5 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: Less Than 0% data was reported at 28.374 % in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 22.061 % for Mar 2025. SCE: Distribution of 5 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: Less Than 0% data is updated monthly, averaging 21.942 % from Jan 2022 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 40 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 30.233 % in Jun 2022 and a record low of 15.468 % in Feb 2024. SCE: Distribution of 5 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: Less Than 0% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H078: Survey of Consumer Expectations: Inflation.

United States - 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate was 2.27% in June of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate reached a record high of 2.89 in April of 2011 and a record low of 0.74 in December of 2008. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

SCE: Distribution of 3 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: 1% to 2% data was reported at 6.039 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 7.658 % for Mar 2025. SCE: Distribution of 3 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: 1% to 2% data is updated monthly, averaging 12.424 % from Jun 2013 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 143 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 18.684 % in Aug 2019 and a record low of 5.037 % in Feb 2022. SCE: Distribution of 3 Year Ahead Expected Inflation Rate: 1% to 2% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H078: Survey of Consumer Expectations: Inflation.

Graph and download economic data for 3-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF3YR) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 3-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF30YR) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 30-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data was reported at 2.123 % in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.199 % for Nov 2018. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data is updated monthly, averaging 1.861 % from Aug 2013 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 65 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.322 % in Aug 2018 and a record low of 1.583 % in Jan 2015. United States FRB Cleveland Forecast: Inflation Nowcast: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI): YoY data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I003: Consumer Price Index: Urban: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.