We explain how measures of consumer prices are computed and what the differences are between the consumer price index (CPI) and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. We also explain various measures used to gauge underlying inflation, or the long-term trend in prices, such as median and trimmed-mean inflation rates and core inflation.

The canonical inflation specification in sticky-price rational expectations models (the new-Keynesian Phillips curve) is often criticized for failing to account for the dependence of inflation on its own lags. In response, many studies employ a "hybrid" specification in which inflation depends on its lagged and expected future values, together with a driving variable such as the output gap. We consider some simple tests of the hybrid model that are derived from its closed form. We find that the hybrid model describes inflation dynamics poorly, and find little empirical evidence for the type of rational, forward-looking behavior that the model implies.

Global developments play an important role for domestic inflation rates. Earlier literature has found that a substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However, inflation volatility has been typically neglected, although it is clearly relevant both from a policy point of view and for structural analysis and forecasting. We study the evolution of inflation rates in several countries, using a novel model that allows for commonality in both levels and volatilities, in addition to country-specific components. We find that inflation volatility is indeed important, and a substantial fraction of it can be attributed to a global factor that is also driving inflation levels and their persistence. The extent of commonality among core inflation rates and volatilities is substantially smaller than for overall inflation, which leaves scope for national monetary policies. Finally, we show that the point and density forecasting performance of the model is good relative to standard benchmarks, which provides additional evidence on its reliability.

The statistic shows the inflation rate in Spain from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket. This product basket contains products and services, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. In 2023, the average inflation rate in Spain increased by about 3.4 percent compared to the previous year. Inflation in Spain As explained briefly above, inflation is commonly defined as the level of prices for goods and services in a country’s economy over a certain time span. It increases when the total money supply of a country increases, causing the money’s value to decrease, and prices to increase again in turn. Nowadays the term “inflation” is used more or less synonymously with “price level increase”. Its opposite is deflation, which, in short, means a decrease of the price level. Spain and its economy have been severely affected by the financial crisis of 2008 (as can be seen above), when the real estate bubble imploded and caused the demand for goods and services to decrease and the unemployment rate in Spain to increase dramatically. Even though deflation only occurred for one year in 2009 and the price level has been increasing since, Spain’s economy still has a long way to go until full recovery. Apart from the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, gross domestic product / GDP growth in Spain and the trade balance of goods in Spain, i.e. the exports of goods minus the imports, are additional indicators of Spain’s desolate condition during the economic crisis and its slow and difficult recovery ever since. Still, there is a silver lining for Spain’s economy. All in all, things seems to be improving economically, albeit slowly; many key indicators are starting to stabilize or even pick up again, while others still have some recovering to do.

The Consumer Price Index gauges the price changes in a basket of goods and services in a defined time period. During August 2024, the product category with the highest Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase compared with the previous month in Argentina was household, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with a seven percent increase. Followed by education with a 6.6 percent increase. Nonetheless, when compared with the previous year, communications registered the highest price increase with over 320 percent year-over-year. The expectation of inflation Despite Argentina’s efforts to reduce inflation, the country ranks in the top three Latin American countries with the highest rate, only with a lower figure than Venezuela and Suriname. The situation is not a recent one, the inflation rate has been reaching double digits every year since 2012, reaching over 50 percent in 2019, making the constant rising prices nothing out of the ordinary for Argentinian families. The expectation of inflation is one of the main causes of inflation with low central bank interest-rates and increases in the money supply, which helps to explain the chronic inflation of the country. Both firms and people expect inflation in their lives, workers demand increasing wages to coop with inflation, while companies increase prices of goods and services because they expect production costs to grow, creating a vicious circle in the economy. Inflation and poverty Inflation negatively affects consumers and savers alike. For the latter, 100 Argentinian pesos in 2020 was worth just under 52 pesos in 2021, after adjusting for the 48.41 percent inflation rate. For the consumers, rising prices of the basic products increase the vulnerability of the population. In January 2023, the value of the basic food basket, which establishes the extreme poverty line, stood at 23,315 pesos, more than ten times higher than during the same month in 2018. Between the first half of 2018 and the first half of 2022, the share of households under the poverty line increased by over 8 percentage points reaching 27.7 percent.

Inflation Rate in Iran increased to 38.90 percent in April from 37.10 percent in March of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Iran Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Many business cycle models use a flat short-run Phillips curve, due to time-dependent pricing and strategic complementarities, to explain fluctuations in real output. But, in doing so, these models predict unrealistically high persistence and stability of US inflation in recent decades. We calculate "reset price inflation"—based on new prices chosen by the subsample of price changers—to dissect this discrepancy. We find that the models generate too much persistence and stability both in reset price inflation and in the way reset price inflation is converted into actual inflation. Our findings present a challenge to existing explanations for business cycles. (JEL E31, E52)

In 2023, no Latin American or Caribbean country registered deflation in their average consumer prices. Costa Rica had the lowest change compared to the previous year with 0.52 percent. In contrast, the average inflation rate in Venezuela amounted to about 337.46 percent.

Latin America among the highest inflation rates in the world In 2023, the average inflation rate of the region was around 14.41 percent. Which is significantly higher than the global average of 6.78 percent. Some of that is explained by countries such as Venezuela, Argentina, and Suriname ranking in the top then of countries with the highest inflation rate in the world.

Chronic inflation in Latin America Chronic inflation is often defined as persistent high inflation throughout a long time. Some of the common examples of this problem are Venezuela and Argentina, both countries had episodes of hyperinflation, with price increases considerably over 50 percent per month in both cases. The last few years, the global crisis and economic sanctions, attenuated the situation with Argentina reaching once again three-digit inflation and Venezuela exceeding 63,000 percent inflation in 2019.

It has long been suspected, given the salience of gasoline prices, that fluctuations in gasoline prices shift households' 1-year inflation expectations. Assessing this view empirically requires the use of dynamic structural models to quantify the cumulative effect of gasoline price shocks on household inflation expectations at each point in time. We find that, on average, gasoline price shocks account for 42% of the variation in these expectations. The cumulative increase in household inflation expectations from early 2009 to early 2013, in particular, is almost entirely explained by unexpectedly rising gasoline prices. However, there is no support for the view that the improved fit of the Phillips curve augmented by household inflation expectations during 2009 2013 is mainly explained by rising gasoline prices.

Graph and download economic data for Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate (PCETRIM1M158SFRBDAL) from Feb 1977 to May 2025 about trimmed mean, average, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, rate, and USA.

The Consumer Price Index in the United States increased 0.10 percent in May of 2025 over the previous month. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate MoM - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

Inflation Rate in Japan decreased to 3.50 percent in May from 3.60 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Japan Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The United States economy began to experience a period of higher inflation at the end of the 1960s. This trend marked the end of what was termed the 'Golden Era of Capitalism', a period following World War II in which the United States experienced historically unprecedented annual growth rates, along with low inflation and unemployment. While the causes of this inflation are debated, expansionary fiscal policy related to the Vietnam War at a time of full employment in the early 1960s likely contributed to rising price levels. Taxes were not raised to compensate for the increased costs of the war until 1968, at which point inflation had already climbed to 3.6 percent. On the other hand, military spending was small compared to overall U.S. GDP during this period, reaching a peak of 9.8% in 1968, indicating that military spending alone cannot explain the rising inflation rate. The sharp uptick after 1973 came as a result of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War in the Middle East, where Arab countries implemented an oil embargo against the United States for its support of Israel, and the price of oil rose exponentially.

We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle within the context of a standard Phillips curve. If firms' inflation expectations track those of households, then the missing disinflation can be explained by the rise in their inflation expectations between 2009 and 2011. We present new econometric and survey evidence consistent with firms having similar expectations as households. The rise in household inflation expectations from 2009 to 2011 can be explained by the increase in oil prices over this time period. (JEL D84, E24, E32, E52, E58, Q35)

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and May 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

ABSTRACT The paper discusses the determination of inflation in Brazil, especially after the great recession of 2015-2016, to assess the adequacy of manipulating interest rates to control the rise in prices due to permanent cost pressure. The burden of using the interest rate to fight cost inflation is to create a highly conventional level of the real interest rate, which benefits the rentier class in a financialized economy. In the light of the post-Keynesian macroeconomics, a high-interest rate convention keeps the economy with a low growth rate and a low investment rate, which in the case of the Brazilian economy has resulted in a regression in the productive matrix and productivity stagnation, and both contribute to perpetuating cost pressures on prices. The empirical analysis corroborates the discussion about recent inflation having its origin in cost pressures over which the interest rate impact for its control is limited. We complement the empirical analysis by testing the response to the SELIC interest rate of the variables used to explain the fluctuation of market prices and administered prices: commodity price index, exchange rate and activity level. As expected, the impact of an increase in the interest rate appreciates the exchange rate, favouring inflation control and reducing the level of activity but has no impact on the commodity price index.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-03 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

Abstract This article is a survey about the consequences of the credibility of government policies, one of the main developments in macroeconomic theory in the 80s. New classical economists used it to explain why, in the long-run, government policies fail when they intend to increase the level of employment above the natural rate. Even in the short run, they only achieve their aims if it is possible to cheat the private sector. The result will be to lose credibility and inflationary pressures. Other authors developed it as a tool to understand the relationship between government, political parties and pressure groups with economic policy. Finally, we comment some papers about the Brazilian inflation based on distributive conflict and compare them with explanations from credibility of policies.

Graph and download economic data for Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average (CPILFESL) from Jan 1957 to May 2025 about core, headline figure, all items, urban, consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.