This paper constructs daily measures of the real interest rate and expected inflation using commodity futures prices and the term structure of Treasury yields. We find that commodity futures markets respond to surprise increases in the federal funds rate target by raising the inflation rate expected over the next three to nine months. There is no evidence that the real interest rate responds to surprises in the federal funds target. The data from the commodity futures markets are highly volatile. We show that one can substantially reduce the noise using limited information estimators such as the median change. Nevertheless, the basket of commodities actually traded daily is quite narrow and we do not know whether our observable rates are closely connected to the unobservable inflation and real rates that affect economy-wide consumption and investment decisions.

Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 3 percent in June from 3.20 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF1YR) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 1-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: SRW Wheat Futures: CBOT: Settlement Price: 1st Month data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: SRW Wheat Futures: CBOT: Settlement Price: 1st Month data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Apr 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 320 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 32.445 % in 24 Mar 2025 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: SRW Wheat Futures: CBOT: Settlement Price: 1st Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation: Headline.

United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Cocoa Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: Current Month data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Cocoa Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: Current Month data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Apr 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 320 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 28.398 % in 17 Feb 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Cocoa Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: Current Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation: Headline.

Graph and download economic data for 30-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF30YR) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 30-year, projection, inflation, and USA.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future, PIIE Working Paper 24-22.

If you use the data, please cite as:

Dynan, Karen, and Douglas Elmendorf. 2024. Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future. PIIE Working Paper 24-22. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Cotton Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: 1st Month data was reported at 0.411 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.411 % for 05 May 2025. United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Cotton Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: 1st Month data is updated weekly, averaging 0.004 % from Jun 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 259 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 39.476 % in 18 Nov 2024 and a record low of 0.000 % in 03 Feb 2025. United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Cotton Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: 1st Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Headline.

ECRI: Future Inflation Gauge Index data was reported at 111.900 NA in Nov 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 113.100 NA for Oct 2018. ECRI: Future Inflation Gauge Index data is updated monthly, averaging 110.500 NA from Jan 1994 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 299 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 126.200 NA in Oct 2005 and a record low of 77.600 NA in Apr 2009. ECRI: Future Inflation Gauge Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Economic Cycle Research Institute. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I042: Future Inflation Gauge Index.

Expected Inflation Term Structure is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Rough Rice Futures: CME: Settlement Price: 1st Month data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Rough Rice Futures: CME: Settlement Price: 1st Month data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Apr 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 320 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 57.075 % in 19 Jul 2021 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Rough Rice Futures: CME: Settlement Price: 1st Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation: Headline.

United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Coffee Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: Current Month data was reported at 37.434 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 37.434 % for 05 May 2025. United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Coffee Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: Current Month data is updated weekly, averaging 0.084 % from Apr 2018 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 369 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 41.541 % in 21 Apr 2025 and a record low of 0.000 % in 27 May 2024. United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Commodity Prices: Coffee Futures: ICE: Settlement Price: Current Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Core.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-30 about spread, interest rate, interest, 5-year, inflation, rate, and USA.

Consumer Opinion Surveys: Consumer Prices: Future Tendency of Inflation: European Commission and National Indicators for the United States was 7.26667 Net % in January of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Consumer Prices: Future Tendency of Inflation: European Commission and National Indicators for the United States reached a record high of 12.56667 in January of 1980 and a record low of 1.50000 in October of 2001. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Consumer Opinion Surveys: Consumer Prices: Future Tendency of Inflation: European Commission and National Indicators for the United States - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Consumer Opinion Surveys: Consumer Prices: Future Tendency of Inflation: European Commission and National Indicators for the United States was 10.90000 Net % in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Consumer Opinion Surveys: Consumer Prices: Future Tendency of Inflation: European Commission and National Indicators for the United States reached a record high of 13.80000 in January of 1980 and a record low of 1.00000 in November of 2001. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Consumer Opinion Surveys: Consumer Prices: Future Tendency of Inflation: European Commission and National Indicators for the United States - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.