Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Employment Services: Temporary Help Services (WPU4631) from Mar 2009 to Aug 2025 about temporary help, commodities, services, employment, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Staffing Services (Except Professional Employer Organizations (PEOs)): Temporary Help Services (PCU5613805613801) from Jun 1994 to Aug 2025 about temporary help, professional, services, employment, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Underlying inflation—the rate of inflation that prevails after temporary imbalances in the economy are resolved—can help policymakers gauge whether current high rates of inflation are likely to persist. Using survey-based inflation expectations, we show that if current inflation forecasts are realized, underlying inflation should decline toward 2 percent in 2024. However, if inflation continues to surprise to the upside, underlying inflation may remain elevated for some time.

As of February 2024, the monthly percentage change in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at ***** percent from the previous month. In February 2023, the indicator increased by **** percent, in comparison to the month before. It is worth noting that core CPI is a variation from headline CPI, with the exclusion of inflation shocks that are temporary. Therefore, regulated items along with fruits and vegetables are removed from core CPI.

We study the impact of targeted price controls on supermarket products in Argentina between 2007 and 2015. Using web-scraping methods, we collected daily prices for controlled and non-controlled goods and examined the differential effects of the policy on inflation, product availability, entry and exit, and price dispersion. We first show that price controls have only a small and temporary effect on inflation that reverses itself as soon as the controls are lifted. Second, contrary to common beliefs, we find that controlled goods are consistently available for sale. Third, firms compensate for price controls by introducing new product varieties at higher prices, thereby increasing price dispersion within narrow categories. Overall, our results show that targeted price controls are just as ineffective as more traditional forms of price controls in reducing aggregate inflation.

Recently, the inflation rate has been rising, owing partly to inflation in Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), which is at levels not seen since 2009.Is the increase in OER a temporary blip?

Measurement results of variance inflation factor and tolerance of each variable.

Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI): COICOP 2018: Contribution to Annual Inflation: Information and Communication data was reported at 0.025 % Point in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.000 % Point for Feb 2025. Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI): COICOP 2018: Contribution to Annual Inflation: Information and Communication data is updated monthly, averaging -0.006 % Point from Jan 2021 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 51 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.245 % Point in Feb 2023 and a record low of -1.520 % Point in Dec 2021. Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI): COICOP 2018: Contribution to Annual Inflation: Information and Communication data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.OECD.MEI: Consumer Price Index: COICOP 2018: Contribution to Annual Inflation: OECD Member. The index measures monthly changes in the general level of prices of goods and services that households acquire for consumption. Type of prices: Normal retail prices or service charges for items actually sold in establishments on the survey date; excludes temporary bargain (within a week) prices, prices for installment sales, abnormal prices due to disasters, and prices of second-hand articles. Prices are transaction prices, excluding temporary reductions, special sales, etc. Method of collection:The monthly RPS is the main source of data on prices for the CPI. Its sample design is akin to that of the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (FIES). Approximately 750 price collectors visit 30,000 outlets to collect prices of reselected representative items. There are 509 items and 719 item specifications Treatment of rentals for housing: The index includes a measure of rented housing. Treatment of Owner-Occupied Housing: Owner-occupied housing is incorporated in the index through the imputed rent approach. Treatment of missing prices: For temporarily unavailable, seasonal, perishable items, such as fresh fruit and fish, the overall weight is held fixed at the annual level. The missing prices are excluded from long-run price comparisons between the 2005 mean reference price and the price in the current period. There is an implied imputation for the price change of the missing items-one based on the long-run price change of existing items. Treatment of quality changes: Explicit quality adjustments are made, when applicable. The option cost method is applied to automobiles and hedonic indices are used for digital cameras and personal computers. Treatment of seasonal items: For fresh fish and shellfish, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits the monthly variable weights are used for compiling the index. For seasonal goods excluidng fresh foods, the average prices of the month when the survey is conducted are substituted for the prices of the month when the survey is not conducted.

For the past few years, Sri Lanka’s economy has been thriving. Gross domestic product is soaring, and despite the densely populated country being among the smallest in the Asia Pacific region, its GDP per capita is not – it has almost doubled over the past decade. Sri Lanka’s inflation rate has been through the wringer, however: From around seven percent in 2013 to a sudden slump to around two percent in 2015 with a rapid upturn and peak at 6.5 percent in 2017 again. The slump in 2015 is mainly due to the country amassing national debt, which is soaring just as much as GDP. Sri Lanka has been spending so much money on developing its infrastructure, it needed help from the International Monetary Fund.

Bailed out

The International Monetary Fund does not just bail a country out frivolously, although Sri Lanka is by far not the only one requesting financial aid. Other countries have turned to the IMF for help in the past, the most famous example of asking for a bailout is Greece, which still struggles with the consequences of economic turmoil, austerity, and debt years later. Bailout money comes with terms and conditions, since it is a temporary solution to facilitate resolving an economic crisis. Often, one of these conditions is that countries take matters into their own hands and do everything they can to avoid further crises and to help get themselves out of debt.

Maxing out the cards

Sri Lanka has been living above its means, but prognoses look promising. Inflation is expected to level off around five percent, as is government expenditure at around 20 percent of GDP. Debt is still rising, of course, but trade seems in good shape, as well, with exports increasing, lowering the trade deficit. All in all, it looks like investing in infrastructure may pay off after all.

Survey respondents over-forecast inflation: they expect it to be higher than it turns out to be. Furthermore, people are generally overconfident in their forecasts. In two experiments, we show that providing outcome feedback that informs people of the actual level of the inflation that they have forecast reduces both over-forecasting and overconfidence in forecasts. These improvements were preserved even after feedback had been withdrawn, a finding that indicates that they were not produced because feedback had a temporary incentive effect but because it had a more permanent learning effect. However, providing forecasters with more outcome feedback did not have a greater effect. Feedback appears to provide people with information about biases in their judgment and, once they have received that› information, no additional advantage is obtained by giving it to them again. Reducing over-forecasting had no clear effect on overall error. This was because providing outcome feedback also affected the noise or random error in forecasts, increasing it by a sufficient amount in one experiment to cancel out the benefits provided by the reduction in over-forecasting.

This paper assesses the presence and importance of the neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates and estimates an empirical and a new Keynesian model driven by stationary and nonstationary monetary and real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases in the nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases in inflation and output. The main finding of the paper is that permanent monetary shocks that increase the nominal interest rate and inflation in the long run cause in the short run increases in interest rates, inflation, and output, and explain about 45 percent of inflation changes.

The ECB updated its monetary policy strategy for the first time in 18 years in July 2021. Therein, the ECB announced that it is willing to accept a transitory period of moderate inflation overshoot in its efforts to push inflation upwards after a long period of undershooting its target. This study explores whether such an overshoot can be economically justified employing a simple Phillips curve model. The results point to the conclusion that the average inflation rate over the business cycle consolidated about one percentage point below the ECB’s target rate. A temporary asymmetry of the ECB’s monetary strategy seems therefore justified to realign inflation and inflation expectations with the target rate.

How important is the information effect of monetary policy? We first show analytically that the reduced-form method of regressing forecast revisions on monetary policy surprises leads to a biased estimation, due to the correlation between monetary policy surprises and the unobserved shocks. We then develop a New Keynesian model in which asymmetric information originates from a two-way learning mechanism: the central bank learns from lagged aggregate inflation and output, and firms learn from individual marginal costs and the interest rate. We calibrate our model parameters to match macroeconomic dynamics in the US and the forecast accuracy of the Federal Reserve and professional forecasters. Our calibrated model shows that the information effect reduces the output gaps caused by demand shocks and noise shocks, but may lead to a temporary rise in inflation after a contractionary monetary policy shock.

Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI): COICOP 2018: Contribution to Annual Inflation: Personal Care, Social Protection, Miscellaneous Goods & Services data was reported at 0.057 % Point in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.062 % Point for Feb 2025. Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI): COICOP 2018: Contribution to Annual Inflation: Personal Care, Social Protection, Miscellaneous Goods & Services data is updated monthly, averaging 0.062 % Point from Jan 2021 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 51 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.142 % Point in Aug 2023 and a record low of -0.014 % Point in Jan 2021. Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI): COICOP 2018: Contribution to Annual Inflation: Personal Care, Social Protection, Miscellaneous Goods & Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.OECD.MEI: Consumer Price Index: COICOP 2018: Contribution to Annual Inflation: OECD Member. The index measures monthly changes in the general level of prices of goods and services that households acquire for consumption. Type of prices: Normal retail prices or service charges for items actually sold in establishments on the survey date; excludes temporary bargain (within a week) prices, prices for installment sales, abnormal prices due to disasters, and prices of second-hand articles. Prices are transaction prices, excluding temporary reductions, special sales, etc. Method of collection:The monthly RPS is the main source of data on prices for the CPI. Its sample design is akin to that of the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (FIES). Approximately 750 price collectors visit 30,000 outlets to collect prices of reselected representative items. There are 509 items and 719 item specifications Treatment of rentals for housing: The index includes a measure of rented housing. Treatment of Owner-Occupied Housing: Owner-occupied housing is incorporated in the index through the imputed rent approach. Treatment of missing prices: For temporarily unavailable, seasonal, perishable items, such as fresh fruit and fish, the overall weight is held fixed at the annual level. The missing prices are excluded from long-run price comparisons between the 2005 mean reference price and the price in the current period. There is an implied imputation for the price change of the missing items-one based on the long-run price change of existing items. Treatment of quality changes: Explicit quality adjustments are made, when applicable. The option cost method is applied to automobiles and hedonic indices are used for digital cameras and personal computers. Treatment of seasonal items: For fresh fish and shellfish, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits the monthly variable weights are used for compiling the index. For seasonal goods excluidng fresh foods, the average prices of the month when the survey is conducted are substituted for the prices of the month when the survey is not conducted.

We investigate the pass-through of a temporary value-added tax (VAT) cut on selected food products to consumer prices in Portugal. Exploiting a novel data set of daily online prices, we find that the VAT cut was fully transmitted to consumer prices, persisted throughout the policy duration, and prices returned to the pre-implementation trend after reversal. We discuss two potential mechanisms driving this result: the policy's salience to consumers in a high-inflation environment and the decline of producer prices when implemented. We estimate that the policy reduced the inflation rate by 0.68 percentage points on impact.

In spring 2008, the Commission and the European Parliament launched a major survey on the European public’s attitude to climate change (see EB 69.2). At the time, the Commission had just brought forward a set of proposals relating to that area, and Parliament had established its Temporary Committee on Climate Change.

Now, one year later, the idea was to assess, via a new survey, the trends emerging within European public opinion. The survey would provide precise pointers in preparation for the United Nations Climate Change Conference to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009.

The two recently published EP/EBs (No 71) on the elections and on the financial crisis showed that Europeans are now primarily concerned about issues that directly affect their daily lives, such as unemployment, economic growth, inflation and purchasing power. On the other hand, there has been a clear decline in interest in collective issues of a global nature such as terrorism, immigration and climate change.

This was confirmed by the findings of our latest survey.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Iron and Steel Forging: Hot Impression Die Impact, Press and Upset Hi-Temp Steel Forgings (PCU33211133211114) from Jun 1998 to Dec 2003 about iron, steel, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Broad Producer Price Index: IPA-OG-M: Agricultural Products: Temporary Crops在2021-01达347.948 Dec2007=100，相较于2020-12的346.767 Dec2007=100有所增长。Broad Producer Price Index: IPA-OG-M: Agricultural Products: Temporary Crops数据按月度更新，1996-12至2021-01期间平均值为103.147 Dec2007=100，共290份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2020-11，达361.274 Dec2007=100，而历史最低值则出现于1997-02，为23.105 Dec2007=100。CEIC提供的Broad Producer Price Index: IPA-OG-M: Agricultural Products: Temporary Crops数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Getulio Vargas Foundation，数据归类于Brazil Premium Database的Inflation – Table BR.FGV: Broad Producer Price Index: by Origin。

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity for Metals and Metal Products: Hot Impression Die Impact, Press, and Upset Alloy Steel Forgings, Except Stainless and High Temp (DISCONTINUED) (WPU10151359112) from Jun 2009 to Dec 2017 about steel, metals, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.