As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

Graph and download economic data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE) from 2003-01-02 to 2025-08-15 about spread, 5-year, interest rate, interest, inflation, rate, and USA.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 5 Year data was reported at 3.300 % in Dec 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.800 % for Sep 2024. Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 5 Year data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.360 % from Mar 2003 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 88 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.531 % in Dec 2008 and a record low of 1.900 % in Jun 2020. Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 5 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Iceland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Iceland – Table IS.I018: Breakeven Inflation Rate (BEI). [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Expected Inflation Term Structure is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 2 Year data was reported at 3.000 % in Dec 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.900 % for Sep 2024. Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 2 Year data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.717 % from Mar 2003 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 88 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.663 % in Dec 2008 and a record low of 1.292 % in Mar 2011. Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 2 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Iceland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Iceland – Table IS.I018: Breakeven Inflation Rate (BEI). [COVID-19-IMPACT]

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by July 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *********, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Russia Domestic Government Bonds: Inflation Linked: 52002RMFS: Days to Maturity data was reported at 2,751.000 NA in 22 Jul 2020. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2,786.000 NA for 17 Jun 2020. Russia Domestic Government Bonds: Inflation Linked: 52002RMFS: Days to Maturity data is updated weekly, averaging 3,136.000 NA from Apr 2018 (Median) to 22 Jul 2020, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3,591.000 NA in 04 Apr 2018 and a record low of 2,751.000 NA in 22 Jul 2020. Russia Domestic Government Bonds: Inflation Linked: 52002RMFS: Days to Maturity data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The data is categorized under Russia Premium Database’s Government and Public Finance – Table RU.FH009: OFZ Auctions' Results. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Ten-Year Expected Inflation and Real and Inflation Risk Premia is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

In 2024, the average yearly yield of UK 10-year government bonds was **** percent. The UK 10-year gilt has shown a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2024. Starting at nearly ** percent in 1990, yields steadily declined, with slight fluctuations, reaching a low of **** percent in 2020. After 2020, yields began to rise again, reflecting recent increases in interest rates and inflation expectations. This long-term decline indicates decreasing inflation and interest rates in Australia over the past decades, with recent economic conditions prompting a reversal in bond yields.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The findings reinforce and extend John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that in advanced countries, as well as emerging market economies such as China, the central bank’s actions have a decisive role in setting the long-term interest rate on government bonds and over-the-counter financial instruments, such as swaps.

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the drivers of long term real interest rates in Brazil. It is shown that long term yield on inflation linked bonds are driven by yields on 10 year interest rates of United States (US) government bonds and 10 year risk premium, as measured by the Credit Default Swap (CDS). Long term interest rates in Brazil were on a downward trend, following US real rates and stable risk premium, until the taper tantrum in the first half of 2013. From then onwards, real interest rates rose due to the increase in US real rates in anticipation of the beginning of monetary policy normalization and, more recently, due to a sharp increase in Brazilian risk premium. Policy interest rates do not significantly affect long term real interest rates.

Break Even Inflation Rate: 10-Year data was reported at 2.160 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.320 % for Dec 2024. Break Even Inflation Rate: 10-Year data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.620 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 157 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.370 % in Mar 1989 and a record low of 0.660 % in Mar 2020. Break Even Inflation Rate: 10-Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of Australia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.I067: Breakeven Inflation Rate. The Breakeven 10 Year Inflation Rate is measured by the Reserve Bank of Australia using Commonwealth government securities. For data since 1996, the RBA uses interpolation and projection of the yield curve to estimate both nominal and inflation-indexed bond yields with an exact 10-year maturity. Prior to 1996, these adjustments are not made and the nominal and inflation-indexed bond yields used to derive the series may not reflect ideal 10-year maturities. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The findings reinforce and extend John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that in advanced countries, as well as emerging market economies such as China, the central bank’s actions have a decisive role in setting the long-term interest rate on government bonds and over-the-counter financial instruments, such as swaps.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to two percent by June 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

The number of defaults on corporate bonds rated high ratings.

Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 1 Year data was reported at 3.500 % in Dec 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.400 % for Sep 2024. Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 1 Year data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.743 % from Mar 2003 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 88 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.749 % in Dec 2008 and a record low of 1.196 % in Mar 2011. Iceland Breakeven Inflation Rate: Bond Market: 1 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Iceland. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Iceland – Table IS.I018: Breakeven Inflation Rate (BEI). [COVID-19-IMPACT]

Fixed Income Asset Management Market Outlook

The global fixed income asset management market size was valued at approximately USD 5.7 trillion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 9.3 trillion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% over the forecast period. The growth of this market is primarily driven by the increasing demand for stable and predictable returns in an uncertain economic environment.

One of the significant growth factors for the fixed income asset management market is the aging global population. As more individuals approach retirement age, the demand for fixed income investments that offer stable returns and lower risk compared to equities is increasing. Retirees and near-retirees often prioritize capital preservation and income generation, which fixed income products are well-suited to provide. This demographic trend is particularly prominent in developed countries but is also becoming more relevant in emerging markets as their populations age and accumulate wealth.

Another crucial growth driver is the rising interest rate environment. As central banks around the world shift towards tightening monetary policies to combat inflation, interest rates are gradually increasing. Higher interest rates make newly issued bonds more attractive to investors due to their higher yields. This situation creates opportunities for fixed income asset managers to attract new investments and cater to clients looking for better returns in a higher interest rate environment. Additionally, higher yields can enhance the overall performance of fixed income portfolios, making them more appealing to both institutional and retail investors.

The increasing complexity and diversity of fixed income products is also contributing to market growth. The fixed income market has evolved to include a wide range of instruments beyond traditional government and corporate bonds. Products such as mortgage-backed securities, municipal bonds, and various structured financial instruments offer different risk-return profiles and investment opportunities. This diversification allows asset managers to tailor portfolios to meet specific client needs and preferences, thereby attracting a broader investor base. The development of innovative fixed income products continues to drive growth in this market by expanding the range of investment options available.

In the realm of private equity, the PE Fund Management Fee plays a crucial role in shaping the investment landscape. These fees are typically charged by fund managers to cover the operational costs of managing the fund, including research, administration, and portfolio management. The structure of these fees can vary, often comprising a management fee based on the committed capital and a performance fee tied to the fund's returns. Understanding the intricacies of these fees is essential for investors, as they can significantly impact the net returns on their investments. As private equity continues to grow as an asset class, the transparency and justification of management fees are becoming increasingly important to investors seeking to maximize their returns while ensuring alignment of interests with fund managers.

From a regional perspective, North America remains the largest market for fixed income asset management, driven by the presence of a well-established financial industry, a large pool of institutional investors, and a high level of individual wealth. However, the Asia Pacific region is expected to exhibit the highest growth rate during the forecast period. Rapid economic growth, increasing financial literacy, and a burgeoning middle class are driving demand for fixed income investments in countries such as China and India. Additionally, regulatory reforms aimed at developing local bond markets and attracting foreign investment are further propelling the market in this region.

Asset Type Analysis

The fixed income asset management market can be categorized by asset type into government bonds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and others. Each of these asset types offers unique characteristics and appeals to different segments of investors, contributing to the overall growth and diversification of the market.

Government bonds are one of the most significant segments in the fixed income market. Issued by national governments, these bonds are considered low-risk investments due to the backing of the issuing g