On October 29, 1929, the U.S. experienced the most devastating stock market crash in it's history. The Wall Street Crash of 1929 set in motion the Great Depression, which lasted for twelve years and affected virtually all industrialized countries. In the United States, GDP fell to it's lowest recorded level of just 57 billion U.S dollars in 1933, before rising again shortly before the Second World War. After the war, GDP fluctuated, but it increased gradually until the Great Recession in 2008. Real GDP Real GDP allows us to compare GDP over time, by adjusting all figures for inflation. In this case, all numbers have been adjusted to the value of the US dollar in FY2012. While GDP rose every year between 1946 and 2008, when this is adjusted for inflation it can see that the real GDP dropped at least once in every decade except the 1960s and 2010s. The Great Recession Apart from the Great Depression, and immediately after WWII, there have been two times where both GDP and real GDP dropped together. The first was during the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 until June 2009 in the US, although its impact was felt for years after this. After the collapse of the financial sector in the US, the government famously bailed out some of the country's largest banking and lending institutions. Since recovery began in late 2009, US GDP has grown year-on-year, and reached 21.4 trillion dollars in 2019. The coronavirus pandemic and the associated lockdowns then saw GDP fall again, for the first time in a decade. As economic recovery from the pandemic has been compounded by supply chain issues, inflation, and rising global geopolitical instability, it remains to be seen what the future holds for the U.S. economy.

The Covid-19 pandemic saw growth fall by 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent the year before. The last time the real GDP growth rates fell by a similar level was during the Great Recession in 2009, and the only other time since the Second World War where real GDP fell by more than one percent was in the early 1980s recession. The given records began following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, and GDP growth fluctuated greatly between the Great Depression and the 1950s, before growth became more consistent.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

Graph and download economic data for Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy (DPCCRC1A027NBEA) from 1929 to 2024 about core, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services Excluding Energy and Housing (Chain-Type Price Index) (IA001260A) from 1929 to 2024 about Supercore, chained, energy, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, services, housing, inflation, GDP, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Ausgangspunkt der Untersuchung zur Finanzpolitik des Deutschen Reichs bildet die verbreitete Furcht vor einer neuen Inflation in den 30er Jahren. Auch bestehen kaum Zweifel daran, von einer Instrumentalisierung der Inflationsangst durch die Regierung Brüning auszugehen. Bleibt die Frage offen, mit welchen Zielsetzungen – gleich bleibenden oder sich ändernden – erfolgte sie. Damit verbunden ist die Frage, wie von verantwortlichen Politikern, Wirtschaftsführern und Gewerkschaftlern die große Inflation in den Jahren des Ersten Weltkriegs bis zum totalen Zusammenbruch der Währung im Jahre 1923 wahrgenommen worden ist, wo ihrer Ansicht nach die Ursachen gelegen hatten, wie sie die Wirkungen einschätzten und welche Schlussfolgerungen sie hieraus für staatliches Handeln, insbesondere für die Finanzpolitik, gezogen haben. Aus der Wahrnehmung der Inflationsursachen (Reparationen, Handelsdiskriminierungen ) wurden für die Finanzpolitik des Reiches eine Reihe von inhaltlichen und formalen Schlussfolgerungen gezogen, die im Kern bereits während der Stabilisierungsphase 1923/24 formuliert wurden, deren finanzpolitischen Grundsätze aber erst 1929 angesichts der schwierigen Lage der Reichsfinanzen wieder Beachtung fanden. Thesenhaft lassen sich diese ‚Vorstellungen‘ wie folgt darstellen: (1) Die öffentlichen Haushalte sollten on der Regel in Einnahmen und Ausgaben ausgeglichen sein. Kreditfinanzierte Ausgaben sollten nur für Investitionen getätigt werden. (2) Das System der öffentlichen Einnahmen sollte Konsumtion bestrafen und Investitionen fördern; zugleich sollte es bestimmten, sonst weder unter binnenwirtschaftlichen noch Weltmarktbedingungen überlebensfähigen Wirtschaftszweigen (vor allem der Großlandwirtschaft, aber auch einzelnen Industrien) die Lebensfähigkeit garantieren – und auch dies zu Lasten der Konsumtion. (3) Ergaben sich aus diesen Postulaten Zielkonflikte für die öffentliche Finanzwirtschaft, standen auf der Ausgabenseite zuallererst die massenbelastenden Verbrauchs- und Verkehrssteuern für eine Erhöhung zur Disposition. „Die Krise der Staatsfinanzen, die für das Reich schon zu Beginn des Haushaltsjahres 1928 für alle aufmerksamen Beobachter, in jedem Fall aber für die verantwortlichen Politiker und Beamten sowie Interessenvertreter, offen zutage lag, wirkte zusammen mit der Regierungsübernahme der Großen Koalition, die nun auch noch die bisher weniger berücksichtigten Interessen zufriedenzustellen drohte, als Katalysator: Die bisher eher unkoordiniert nebeneinander stehenden ‚Vorstellungen‘ über die rechte Finanzpolitik auf dem Erfahrungshintergrund der Inflation wurden zu einer Konzeption zusammengeschweißt. Diesen Prozeß gilt es im Folgenden aufzuhellen. Dies geschieht im Wesentlichen durch eine Analyse der Schuldenpolitik, der Steuerpolitik und der Verteilungspolitik“ (Witt, P.-C., 1985, a. a. O., S. 53f). Dabei werden die Haushaltsjahre seit November 1923 bis 1934/35 als eine Einheit gesehen, begrenzt durch das Ende der Inflation 1914-1923. Aus der Fülle des veröffentlichten und unveröffentlichten statistischen Materials arbeitet der Autor ein Bild von den öffentlichen Finanzen für den betrachteten Untersuchungszeitraum heraus.

Datentabellen in HISTAT: A.01 Die jährlichen Wachstumsraten von Preisen, Löhnen, Gehältern und Renten (1925-1935) A.02a Die Einnahmen der Gebietskörperschaften und des Sozialversicherungssystems und ihre Ausgaben, in laufenden Preisen (1913-1935) A.02b Die Einnahmen des Reiches und seine Ausgaben, ohne Sozialversicherung, in laufenden Preisen (1924-1935) A.02c Die Entwicklung der Reichsschuld, Nominalbeträge, in Mill. RM (1924-1933) A.03 Einnahmen von Reich, Ländern, Gemeinden, Gemeindeverbänden und dem Sozialversicherungssystem nach Einnahmegruppen, in Prozent (1913-1936) A.04 Steuern, Abgaben und Beiträge zum Sozialversicherungssystem, Index 1928/29 = 100, in Preisen von 1928/29 (1913-1936) A.05 Zolleinnahmen und Zollbelastung der Einfuhren (1913-1936) A.06a Die Struktur der öffentlichen Ausgaben: Gebietskörperschaften und Sozialversicherungssystem, in Prozent (1913-1933) A.06b Die Struktur der öffentlichen Ausgaben: Reich, in Prozent (1913-1933) A.07 Durchschnittliche Rentenentwicklung im Deutschen Reich (1914-1936)

The evolution of debt-income ratios over time depends on income growth, inflation, and interest rates, independent of any changes in borrowing. We examine the effect of these "Fisher dynamics" on household debt-income ratios in the United States over the period 1929–2011. Adapting a standard decomposition of public debt to household sector debt, we show that these factors explain, in accounting terms, a large fraction of the changes in household debt-income ratios observed historically. More recently, debt defaults have also been important. Changes in household debt-income ratios over time cannot be straightforwardly interpreted as reflecting shifts in the supply and demand of household credit.

The Study’s subject: The investigator’s aim is to determine the volume of stock trade. A sample of papers consisting of shares, government’s bond issues, corporate bond issues, bonds of mortgage banks, bonds of so called ‘Landschaftsbanks’, bonds of annuity banks, and floated subscription rights is the focus of the investigation.

With regard to the periods of German history the development of the stock market is described. The periods are: - the influence of the First World War 1914 to 1918 on the stock market - the period of inflation 1919 to 1924 - apparent return of normality 1924 to 1929 - the influence of world economic crisis 1929 to 1933 - the Nazi Socialist economic policy 1933 to 1939 - finally, the Second World War 1939 to 1945.

Important comment on the data: Taxes and the system of taxes have changed over time under investigation. Therefore, the development of stock exchange turnover tax is only one indication among others for the development of securities transactions. Furthermore, it has to be taken into account, that the reported values for the period of inflation cannot be used for comparisons with other periods.

Data-Tables in HISTAT (subject: money and currency, financial sector, in German: Thema: Geld und Währung, Finanzsektor):

A. Volume of Stock Trade in Germany A.1 Development of stock exchange turnover tax in millions of M/RM (1910-1944). A.2 Circulation of securities of domestic issuers in Billions of M/RM (1910-1944).

B. Apparent return of normality after the period of inflation
B.1 monthly averages of share prices (monthly statistics, index: 1924 to 1926 = 100, (1925-1929)). B.2 Monthly bonds prices in percent of the nominal value (monthly statistics, (1925-1929)). B.3 Stock market in Breslau: Firms and brokers authorized for stock trading (1850-1931/32).

C. Influence of economic crisis
C.1 Monthly share prices (monthly statistics, index: 1924 to 1926=100 (1930-1934)). C.2 Monthly bonds prices in percent of the nominal value (monthly statistics, (1930-1934)).

D. Influence of Nazi Socialist economic policy and stock exchange during World War II D.1 Share prices of the company ‚Rütgerswerke-AG’ in Berlin (1933-1937). D.2 Index of share prices, index: 1924 to 1926=100 (1924-1943).

Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food, Energy, and Housing (LA001176A) from 1929 to 2024 about Supercore, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, housing, inflation, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food, Energy, and Housing (Chain-Type Price Index) (IA001176A) from 1929 to 2024 about Supercore, chained, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, housing, inflation, GDP, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy (chain-type price index) (DPCCRG3A086NBEA) from 1929 to 2024 about chained, core, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, GDP, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The study of Jürgen Nautz deals with selected aspects of tariff autonomy and wage development during the years of inflation in the Weimar Republic. First the development of wages will be presented in the context of cost of living. To investigate the question of tariff autonomy in the inflation period it is of special interest to analyze the usage of arbitration instruments by unions, management and the state. Another central subject of this study is the fundamental position concerning the question of the design of important relations. Two themes are in the focus of interest; the ideas of the further refinement of the collective bargaining principle and the arbitration of labor disputes.Especially concerning tariff autonomy legal positions were developed during the inflation years which had an important impact on the discussion about tariff autonomy during the entire period the Weimar Republic. Data tables in HISTAT:A.1 Development of cost of living: Index of the statistical office of the German Empire (1920-1923)A.2 Index of average real weekly wages per collective agreement Index (1913-1923)A.3 Real weekly and real hourly wages of unskilled and skilled workers (1919-1923)A.4 Strikes and lockouts (1918-1924) A.5 Number of collective agreements (1918-1929)

During the 19th century, the United States generally had a negative trade balance, importing more than it exported, particularly from the British Empire. This changed at the turn of the 20th century, and the U.S. consistently had a positive trade balance between 1896 and 1970. The greatest periods of fluctuation came during the world wars, as well as an observable decline following the Wall Street Crash of 1929.

While inflation rates increased the total value of imports and exports over time, the rate of growth did increase significantly from 1900 onwards. The early 20th century saw the U.S. move away from its traditional isolationist policies (apart from a brief period during the great Depression) and emerge as a global superpower. Following the Second World War, the U.S. used its economic power to maintain its influence across the globe, as it sought to suppress the expansion of communism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is (DJIA) is possibly the most well-known and commonly used stock index in the United States. It is a price-weighted index that assesses the stock prices of 30 prominent companies, whose combined prices are then divided by a regularly-updated divisor (0.15199 in February 2021), which gives the index value. The companies included are rotated in and out on a regular basis; as of mid-2022, the longest mainstay on the list is Procter & Gamble, which was added in 1932; whereas Amgen, Salesforce, and Honeywell were all added in 2020. As one of the oldest indices for stock market analysis, the impact of major events, recessions, and economic shocks or booms can be tracked and contextualized over longer periods of time.

Due to inflation, unadjusted figures appear to be more sporadic in recent years, however the greatest fluctuations came in the earliest years of the index. In the given period, the greatest decline came in the wake of the Wall Street Crash in 1929; by 1932 average values had fallen to just one fifth of their 1929 average, from roughly 314 to 65.

Demobilization following the First World War saw millions of soldiers return to their home countries from the trenches, and in doing so, they brought with them another wave of the deadliest and far-reaching pandemic of all time. As the H1N1 influenza virus, known as the Spanish Flu, spread across the world and infected between one third and a quarter of the global population, it impacted all areas of society. One such impact was on workers' wages, as the labor shortage drove up the demand for skilled workers, which then increased wages. In the United States, wages had already increased due to the shortage of workers caused by the war, however the trend increased further in the two or three years after the war, despite the return of so many personnel from overseas.

In the first fifteen years of the twentieth century, wages across the shown industries had increased gradually and steadily in line with inflation, with the hourly wage in manufacturing increasing from roughly 15 cents per hour to 21 cents per hour in this period. Between 1915 and 1921 or 1921 however, the hourly rate more than doubled across most of these industries, with the hourly wage in manufacturing increasing from 21 cents per hour in 1915 to 56 cents per hour in 1920. Although manufacturing wages were the lowest among those shown here, the trend was similar across even the highest paying trades, with hourly wages in the building trade increasing from 57 cents per hour in 1915 to one dollar and eight cents in 1921. The averages of almost all these trades decreased again in 1922, before plateauing or increasing at a slower rate throughout the late 1920s. Other factors, such as the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and subsequent Great Depression, make comparing this data with wages in later decades more difficult, but it does give some insight into the economic effects of pandemics in history.

Graph and download economic data for Real personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy (chain-type quantity index) (DPCCRA3A086NBEA) from 1929 to 2024 about quantity index, chained, core, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, real, inflation, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services Excluding Energy and Housing (Chain-Type Quantity Index) (IB001260A) from 1929 to 2024 about Supercore, quantity index, chained, energy, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, services, housing, real, inflation, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFSGDA188S) from 1929 to 2024 about budget, federal, GDP, and USA.

Die Ursprünge des selbstinitiierten Zwecksparens zur Eigenheimfinanzierung liegen in Großbritannien. Als rund 150 Jahre später in Deutschland die Entwicklung des Bausparens ihren Anfang nahm, bestand in Großbritannien bereits ein hochentwickeltes Bausparsystem. Dessen Entstehung und Entwicklung werden am Anfang der Untersuchung von Martin L. Müller kurz dargestellt. „Ergänzt wird diese Darstellung durch einen Exkurs zur Wohnungsbaufinanzierung und zum Realmarktkredit in Deutschland vor und unmittelbar nach dem Ersten Weltkrieg. Dieses Realkreditsystem der Vorkriegszeit war für die Bausparkassen vor allem insofern von Relevanz, da erst sein Zusammenbruch in Folge von Krieg und Hyperinflation den Handlungsspielraum für neue Finanzierungsmodelle eröffnete. Die Hyperinflation hatte zur Folge, dass nach der Stabilisierung der deutschen Währung kein langfristiger Realkredit mehr zur Verfügung stand. Unter diesen Rahmenbedingungen entstand die Idee, ein neues Modell für die Eigenheimfinanzierung zu entwickeln, das unabhängig vom allgemeinen Kapitalmarkt arbeiten sollte. Dieses Modell basierte auf der Selbsthilfe der in einer Bausparkasse zusammengeschlossenen Sparer. Die öffentlich-rechtlichen Sparkassen als einer der wichtigsten Realkreditgeber seit dem späten Kaiserreich erkannten in die Entstehung der Bausparkassen schnell als ernstzunehmende Konkurrenz und nahm 1929 das kollektive Bausparen durch eigens gegründete öffentliche Bausparkassen auf, eine Entwicklung, die im einzelnen thematisiert wird. Das individuelle Bausparen blieb nur eine kurze Episode, und im weiteren Verlauf der Arbeit wird unter dem Begriff ‚Bausparen‘ stets das kollektive Sparmodell verstanden“ (Müller, a. a. O., S. 14f). Das Schwergewicht der Untersuchung liegt bei den privaten Bausparkassen. „Die beiden dominierenden privaten Unternehmen, die ‚Bausparkasse Gemeinschaft der Freunde Wüstenrot‘ und die ‚Deutschen Bau- und Siedelungsgemeinschaft‘, können nicht nur als ‚Erfinder‘ des Bausparens gelten, sie stellten auch im untersuchten Zeitraum die unangefochtenen Marktführer dar. Für den konzentrierten Blick auf die privaten Bausparkassen spricht außerdem dass sie bei der Entstehung der Bausparkassengesetzgebung eine Vorreiterrolle spielten. In der Untersuchung geht es nicht darum, die Entwicklung eines einzelnen Bausparkassenunternehmens oder einer Gruppe der privaten Bausparunternehmen zu schildern, sondern es soll gezeigt werden, wie und aus welchen Motiven der Staat mit seinen Exekutiv- und Legislativorganen auf eine neues unternehmerisches Phänomen reagierte. Dabei spielt die Beschreibung und Analyse der Bauspargesetzgebung des Reiches den eigentlichen Mittelpunkt der Untersuchung. … Im Rahmen der Untersuchung soll [für die Zeit nach 1945] die Reorganisation des Bausparens unter alliierter Besatzungsherrschaft umrissen werden. An diese Beschreibung der Konsolidierungsphase der ersten Nachkriegsjahre schließt sich die Behandlung der Bausparkassen in der Währungsreform an. Von zentralem Interesse ist dabei, wie die Bausparkassen bei der Umstellung ihrer Altkonten behandelt wurden“ (Müller, a. a. O., S. 19f). Datentabellen in HISTAT:A.01 Wertpapieremissionen an den deutschen Börsen (1886-1910)A.02 Entwicklung der DAG (1928-1931)A.03 Entwicklung der GdF (1924-1933)A.04 Entwicklung des DBS (1925-1933)A.05 Entwicklung der öffentlichen Bausparkassen (1930-1938)A.06 Vertragsbestände der öffentlichen Bausparkassen (1930-1938)A.07 Wohnungsbauinvestitionen der organisierten Realkreditgeber (1929-1940)A.08 Bestand an privaten Bausparkassen (1931-1938)A.09 Geschäftsentwicklung der privaten Bausparkassen (1935-1939)A.10 Zuführungen und Entnahmen der privaten Bausparkassen (1935-1939)A.11 Auszahlungen der privaten und öffentlichen Bausparkassen (1937-1940)A.12 Sparguthaben und Bilanzsumme der privaten und öffentlichen BausparkassenA.13 Entwicklung der Bilanzsumme und der Ersatzanlagen bei neun privaten und drei öffentlichen Bausparkassen (1936-1943)A.14 Entwicklung der Bilanzsumme und der Ersatzanlagen bei der GdF und der Öffentlichen Bausparkasse Württemberg (1936-1948)A.15 Entwicklung der Bausparguthaben bei GdF und Öffentl. Bausparkasse Württemberg (1944-1948)A.16 Neuabgeschlossene Bausparverträge der GdF und der Öffentlichen Bausparkasse Württemberg (1944-1948)A.17 Entwicklung der Spareinlagen und Hypotheken der privaten Bausparkassen nach der Währungsreform (1948-1950)

Gemessen an der Kaufkraft eines britischen Pfund Sterling (GBP) im Jahr 2019 lag die Kaufkraft in den vergangenen Jahrhunderten erheblich höher: Ein GBP im Jahr 1209 war mehr als zweitausendmal so viel Wert wie ein GBP im Jahr 2019.