The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

The rate at which prices for goods and services are generally rising and, as a result, currency's purchasing power is declining is known as inflation. Central banks attempt to limit inflation—and avoid deflation—in order to keep the economy running smoothly. Each unit of currency may purchase fewer products and services as prices rise. This results in a reduction in the actual value of money, a process that impacts every level of the economy, from consumers to governments. The percentage change in the cost of a basket of goods and services over a certain time period, often a year, is measured by the inflation rate. It’s a key metric for assessing the health of an economy, showing how much more expensive everyday goods and services have become. The change in the average price level of a basket of goods and services over a year is represented by the inflation rate average consumer prices (annual per cent change). It’s calculated by taking the average of prices across all months of a given year compared to the previous year. This metric is determined by averaging monthly price data and comparing it to the average of the previous year. It provides a broader view of inflation trends across a longer time frame, smoothing out any short-term volatility. The Inflation rate, end of period consumer prices (annual per cent change) reflects the price level change from the end of one period (typically December) to the end of the next period (the following December). Instead of taking an average, this rate focuses on the price level at a specific point in time, providing a snapshot of inflation. It’s calculated by comparing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the final month of the year with the CPI of the last month of the previous year.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

Graph and download economic data for Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA) from 1960 to 2024 about consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The Consumer Price Index in Hong Kong decreased 0 percent in June of 2025 over the previous month. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Hong Kong Inflation Rate MoM - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Inflation Rate in Brazil decreased to 5.23 percent in July from 5.35 percent in June of 2025. This dataset provides - Brazil Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Inflation Rate in Sweden increased to 0.80 percent in July from 0.70 percent in June of 2025. This dataset provides - Sweden Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In 2024, the annual end-of-period inflation rate of Chile was approximately 4.53 percent. Between 1980 and 2024, the figure dropped by around 26.71 percentage points, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory. The rate is forecast to decline by about 1.53 percentage points from 2024 to 2030, fluctuating as it trends downward.The International Monetary Fund describes this indicator as a measure of inflation based upon the year-on-year percent change in the end-of-period consumer price index (CPI). The said index measure is based upon the cost of a typical basket of goods and services at the end of a given time period.

Historical dataset showing Qatar inflation rate by year from 1980 to 2024.

In 2024, the annual end-of-period inflation rate of Guatemala was about 1.70 percent. Between 1980 and 2024, the figure dropped by approximately 7.30 percentage points, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory. From 2024 to 2030, the rate will rise by around 2.33 percentage points, showing an overall upward trend with periodic ups and downs.The International Monetary Fund describes this indicator as a measure of inflation based upon the year-on-year percent change in the end-of-period consumer price index (CPI). The said index measure is based upon the cost of a typical basket of goods and services at the end of a given time period.

In 2025, the average inflation rate in the United Kingdom lies at approximately 3.13 percent.Fluctuating decline between 1980 and 2025A comparison to the earliest shown observation from 1980 reveals a total decrease by approximately 13.72 percentage points. The trajectory from 1980 to 2025 shows however that this decrease did not happen continuously.Fluctuating decline between 2025 and 2030In 2030 the inflation will be about 2 percent, according to forecasts. From 2025 onwards, there is an overall decrease by approximately 1.13 percentage points.This indicator measures inflation based upon the year on year change in the average consumer price index. The latter expresses a country's average level of prices based on a typical basket of consumer goods and services. The values shown here refer to the year-on-year change in this index measure, expressed in percent.

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Abstract (en): This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected. (1) The file submitted is the data file 9811WD.DAT. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

In 2024, the annual end-of-period inflation rate of Panama was estimated at about -0.19 percent. Between 1980 and 2024, the figure dropped by approximately 15.69 percentage points, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory. From 2024 to 2030, the rate will rise by around 2.19 percentage points, showing an overall upward trend with periodic ups and downs.The International Monetary Fund describes this indicator as a measure of inflation based upon the year-on-year percent change in the end-of-period consumer price index (CPI). The said index measure is based upon the cost of a typical basket of goods and services at the end of a given time period.

In 2024, the average inflation rate in Chad stood at approximately 5.71 percent. Between 1980 and 2024, the figure dropped by around 2.93 percentage points, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory. The inflation is forecast to decline by about 2.67 percentage points from 2024 to 2030, fluctuating as it trends downward.This indicator measures inflation based upon the year-on-year change in the average consumer price index, expressed in percent. The latter expresses a country's average level of prices based on a typical basket of consumer goods and services.

Graph and download economic data for Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: Professional Services in U.S. City Average (CWSR0000SEMC) from Jan 1980 to Jul 2025 about clerical workers, professional, wages, urban, services, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The Consumer Price Index in Brazil increased 0.26 percent in July of 2025 over the previous month. This dataset provides - Brazil Inflation Rate MoM - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In 2024, the annual end-of-period inflation rate of Paraguay amounted to approximately 3.78 percent. Between 1980 and 2024, the figure dropped by around 24.66 percentage points, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory. The rate is forecast to decline by about 0.28 percentage points from 2024 to 2030, fluctuating as it trends downward.The International Monetary Fund describes this indicator as a measure of inflation based upon the year-on-year percent change in the end-of-period consumer price index (CPI). The said index measure is based upon the cost of a typical basket of goods and services at the end of a given time period.

Sweden: Inflation forecast: The latest value from 2030 is 2 percent, unchanged from 2 percent in 2029. In comparison, the world average is 3.65 percent, based on data from 182 countries. Historically, the average for Sweden from 1980 to 2030 is 3.37 percent. The minimum value, 0.07 percent, was reached in 1998 while the maximum of 14.07 percent was recorded in 1980.