According to recent projections, the impact of reciprocal tariffs worldwide will lead to a short-term acceleration of prices by 0.71 percent. The U.S. is expected to experience the highest price index increase, estimated at 7.26 percent.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

President Trump's tariffs on China have disrupted American businesses, causing price hikes and economic uncertainty. Learn about the impact on the promotional products market and broader economic indicators.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have created significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to higher production and operational costs. In the U.S., tariffs imposed on food imports have directly impacted the foodservice sector, including full-service restaurants. The increased cost of ingredients, equipment, and even labor due to higher import duties has squeezed restaurant profit margins.

Additionally, businesses are experiencing delays in product deliveries, resulting in supply shortages that impact menu offerings and customer satisfaction. While some restaurants have absorbed these higher costs, many have been forced to increase prices, contributing to inflation.

Consumer spending is also impacted as the cost of dining out rises, reducing discretionary spending in other sectors. Tariffs are exacerbating challenges in an already competitive market, forcing FSR businesses to adapt their sourcing strategies, rethink their pricing models, and invest in automation to offset higher costs. In the long term, tariffs may result in fewer investment opportunities and slower growth in the foodservice industry.

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Building materials made of steel, copper and other metals had some of the highest price growth rates in the U.S. in early 2025 in comparison to the previous year. The growth rate of the cost of several construction materials was slightly lower than in late 2024. It is important to note, though, that the figures provided are Producer Price Indices, which cover production within the United States, but do not include imports or tariffs. This might matter for lumber, as Canada's wood production is normally large enough that the U.S. can import it from its neighboring country. Construction material prices in the United Kingdom Similarly to these trends in the U.S., at that time the price growth rate of construction materials in the UK were generally lower 2024 than in 2023. Nevertheless, the cost of some construction materials in the UK still rose that year, with several of those items reaching price growth rates of over five. Considering that those materials make up a very big share of the costs incurred for a construction project, those developments may also have affected the average construction output price in the UK. Construction material shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, there often were supply problems and material shortages, which created instability in the construction market. According to a survey among construction contractors, the construction materials most affected by shortages in the U.S. during most of 2021 were steel and lumber. This was also a problem on the other side of the Atlantic: The share of building construction companies experiencing shortages in Germany soared between March and June 2021, staying at high levels for over a year. Meanwhile, the shortage of material or equipment was one of the main factors limiting the building activity in France in June 2022.

In April 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in April 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 10.2 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has substantially impacted global economies, with rising costs and inflation taking center stage. In the United States, the implementation of new tariffs on imported goods has caused a significant surge in consumer prices, particularly in sectors like electronics, apparel, and automotive. U.S. GDP is projected to experience a loss of approximately 1.1%, which translates to a $170 billion reduction in economic output.

Moreover, the tariffs have eroded consumer purchasing power, with households expected to lose about $3,800 annually. These measures have forced businesses to reevaluate their supply chains and cost structures, further influencing the global trade environment. As inflation rises, central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, face growing pressure to manage the economic fallout, balancing inflation control with economic growth.

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How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs impose additional costs on imported goods, which directly affect production costs and consumer prices. For industries dependent on international supply chains, these rising costs can lead to higher prices for end consumers.

As tariffs increase, businesses may face a reduction in profit margins, forcing them to either absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers. Additionally, tariffs can result in supply chain shifts as companies seek out alternative suppliers or move production to countries with lower tariffs.

The impact extends beyond the immediate sectors affected, influencing overall economic growth by slowing down trade flows, leading to inflation, and potentially reducing consumer purchasing power. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries may also exacerbate these effects, creating a cycle of escalating trade tensions and uncertainty in the global market.

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Gold prices fell by 3.58% on Monday due to global tariff concerns, yet remain up 16.77% since January amid economic uncertainty.

U.S. stock futures dip as investors focus on inflation data and tariff updates. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones futures decline slightly. Bitcoin rises, gold falls, and oil sees an uptick amid market complexities.

At the end of 2023, Zimbabwe had the highest inflation rate in the world, at 667.36 percent change compared to the previous year. Inflation in industrialized and in emerging countries Higher inflation rates are more present in less developed economies, as they often lack a sufficient central banking system, which in turn results in the manipulation of currency to achieve short term economic goals. Thus, interest rates increase while the general economic situation remains constant. In more developed economies and in the prime emerging markets, the inflation rate does not fluctuate as sporadically. Additionally, the majority of countries that maintained the lowest inflation rate compared to previous years are primarily oil producers or small island independent states. These countries experienced deflation, which occurs when the inflation rate falls below zero; this may happen for a variety of factors, such as a shift in supply or demand of goods and services, or an outflow of capital.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs continue to exert significant pressure on the global economy, raising costs for businesses and consumers alike. In the U.S., tariffs have led to an increase in the price of imported goods, from raw materials to consumer products. This has resulted in higher production costs for manufacturers who rely on foreign components.

Additionally, tariffs disrupt global supply chains, leading to delays and inefficiencies. Businesses are now seeking new suppliers or reshoring operations to mitigate the impact of tariffs. As a result, tariffs are contributing to inflation, reducing household purchasing power, and creating uncertainties in international trade.

In the long term, these economic shifts could slow growth, as reduced trade and higher costs hamper economic activity. Businesses in sectors like electronics, automotive, and agriculture are feeling the brunt of these changes, forcing them to adjust their strategies for cost optimization and supply chain resilience.

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The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost seven million after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to 4.8 million. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Metal Can Manufacturing: Aluminum Cans (Including Lids, Ends, and Parts Shipped Separately) (PCU3324313324313) from Dec 1975 to Apr 2025 about aluminum, parts, metals, manufacturing, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

US Tariff Impact on the Market

The global foldable drone market, particularly in the U.S., is influenced by tariffs imposed on Chinese imports. In 2023, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on drone components from China, which impacted manufacturers' costs, leading to an increase in drone prices. This shift has driven companies to explore alternate supply chain strategies, including domestic production and sourcing from non-tariffed countries.

While tariffs have raised prices, they have also led to a surge in demand for locally produced drones, with U.S. companies increasing investment in R&D and manufacturing facilities. Despite price hikes, consumer demand for foldable drones remains strong, particularly in commercial sectors like photography, surveying, and infrastructure inspection.

US Tariff Impact Percentage for Impacted Sector

• Tariff Rates and Impact on Drone Prices:

In April 2025, the U.S. imposed a cumulative 170% tariff on Chinese-made drones, including models from DJI, due to national security concerns.

• Legislative Actions and Proposals:

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers urged the Biden administration to increase tariffs on Chinese-made drones and implement incentives to support U.S. drone manufacturers.

House Republicans proposed legislation to boost tariffs on Chinese-made drones by 30% initially, with annual increases, and to ban imports of drones containing critical Chinese components by 2030.

• Economic Impact on Drone Components:

The tariffs led to cost inflation and delayed availability of critical drone components, including lithium-ion batteries, electronic speed controllers, sensors, and optics, which were predominantly sourced from China.

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Economic Impact

• The imposition of tariffs increased the production costs of foldable drones.
• Companies responded by raising prices or seeking alternative manufacturing regions.
• Despite cost pressures, demand in sectors like photography, real estate, and infrastructure inspection remains strong.

Geographical Impact

• North America, especially the U.S., remains a leading market, accounting for over 39% of global share.
• European and Asian markets are growing as demand for foldable drones expands in commercial and recreational sectors.
• The rise in local manufacturing in the U.S. due to tariffs impacts the global supply chain.

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U.S. stock index futures climbed, supported by a U.S.-China tariff truce and positive inflation data, with significant weekly gains expected for major indexes.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have created significant disruption in the global economy, increasing the cost of goods and raw materials, which has impacted many industries, including the cold chain sector. In the U.S., tariffs on imported goods have raised the price of raw materials for cold chain technologies, such as sensors and refrigerants.

As the cost of production rises, businesses are facing increased operational costs, which are often passed on to consumers, resulting in higher prices for goods. These tariff-induced price increases are contributing to inflation, reducing consumer purchasing power. Additionally, tariffs are disrupting global supply chains, causing delays in shipping and increasing transportation costs.

For industries reliant on global trade, including food and pharmaceuticals, this presents significant challenges in maintaining efficient and cost-effective supply chains.

Companies are now rethinking their sourcing strategies, considering alternatives like nearshoring or reshoring to mitigate the impact of tariffs on operations. This could lead to greater supply chain diversification but also higher operational costs in the short term.

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